Tous les articles par Alain Préat

Full-time professor at the Free University of Brussels, Belgium apreat@gmail.com apreat@ulb.ac.be • Department of Earth Sciences and Environment Res. Grp. - Biogeochemistry & Modeling of the Earth System Sedimentology & Basin Analysis • Alumnus, Collège des Alumni, Académie Royale de Sciences, des Lettres et des Beaux Arts de Belgique (mars 2013). http://www.academieroyale.be/cgi?usr=2a8crwkksq&lg=fr&pag=858&rec=0&frm=0&par=aybabtu&id=4471&flux=8365323 • Prof. Invited, Université de Mons-Hainaut (2010-present-day) • Prof. Coordinator and invited to the Royal Academy of Sciences of Belgium (Belgian College) (2009- present day) • Prof. partim to the DEA (third cycle) led by the University of Lille (9 universities from 1999 to 2004) - Prof. partim at the University of Paris-Sud/Orsay, European-Socrates Agreement (1995-1998) • Prof. partim at the University of Louvain, Convention ULB-UCL (1993-2000) • Since 2015 : Member of Comité éditorial de la Revue Géologie de la France http://geolfrance.brgm.fr • Since 2014 : Regular author of texts for ‘la Revue Science et Pseudosciences’ http://www.pseudo-sciences.org/ • Many field works (several weeks to 2 months) (Meso- and Paleozoic carbonates, Paleo- to Neoproterozoic carbonates) in Europe, USA (Nevada), Papouasia (Holocene), North Africa (Algeria, Morrocco, Tunisia), West Africa (Gabon, DRC, Congo-Brazzaville, South Africa, Angola), Iraq... Recently : field works (3 to 5 weeks) Congo- Brazzaville 2012, 2015, 2016 (carbonate Neoproterozoic). Degree in geological sciences at the Free University of Brussels (ULB) in 1974, I went to Algeria for two years teaching mining geology at the University of Constantine. Back in Belgium I worked for two years as an expert for the EEC (European Commission), first on the prospecting of Pb and Zn in carbonate environments, then the uranium exploration in Belgium. Then Assistant at ULB, Department of Geology I got the degree of Doctor of Sciences (Geology) in 1985. My thesis, devoted to the study of the Devonian carbonate sedimentology of northern France and southern Belgium, comprised a significant portion of field work whose interpretation and synthesis conducted to the establishment of model of carbonate platforms and ramps with reefal constructions. I then worked for Petrofina SA and shared a little more than two years in Angola as Director of the Research Laboratory of this oil company. The lab included 22 people (micropaleontology, sedimentology, petrophysics). My main activity was to interpret facies reservoirs from drillings in the Cretaceous, sometimes in the Tertiary. I carried out many studies for oil companies operating in this country. I returned to the ULB in 1988 as First Assistant and was appointed Professor in 1990. I carried out various missions for mining companies in Belgium and oil companies abroad and continued research, particularly through projects of the Scientific Research National Funds (FNRS). My research still concerns sedimentology, geochemistry and diagenesis of carbonate rocks which leads me to travel many countries in Europe or outside Europe, North Africa, Papua New Guinea and the USA, to conduct field missions. Since the late 90's, I expanded my field of research in addressing the problem of mass extinctions of organisms from the Upper Devonian series across Euramerica (from North America to Poland) and I also specialized in microbiological and geochemical analyses of ancient carbonate series developing a sustained collaboration with biologists of my university. We are at the origin of a paleoecological model based on the presence of iron-bacterial microfossils, which led me to travel many countries in Europe and North Africa. This model accounts for the red pigmentation of many marble and ornamental stones used in the world. This research also has implications on the emergence of Life from the earliest stages of formation of Earth, as well as in the field of exobiology or extraterrestrial life ... More recently I invested in the study from the Precambrian series of Gabon and Congo. These works with colleagues from BRGM (Orléans) are as much about the academic side (consequences of the appearance of oxygen in the Paleoproterozoic and study of Neoproterozoic glaciations) that the potential applications in reservoir rocks and source rocks of oil (in collaboration with oil companies). Finally I recently established a close collaboration with the Royal Institute of Natural Sciences of Belgium to study the susceptibility magnetic signal from various European Paleozoic series. All these works allowed me to gain a thorough understanding of carbonate rocks (petrology, micropaleontology, geobiology, geochemistry, sequence stratigraphy, diagenesis) as well in Precambrian (2.2 Ga and 0.6 Ga), Paleozoic (from Silurian to Carboniferous) and Mesozoic (Jurassic and Cretaceous) rocks. Recently (2010) I have established a collaboration with Iraqi Kurdistan as part of a government program to boost scientific research in this country. My research led me to publish about 180 papers in international and national journals and presented more than 170 conference papers. I am a holder of eight courses at the ULB (5 mandatory and 3 optional), excursions and field stages, I taught at the third cycle in several French universities and led or co-managed a score of 20 Doctoral (PhD) and Post-doctoral theses and has been the promotor of more than 50 Masters theses.

Germany: The world’s dumbest energy policy

by Schmitt Trading Ltd, Feb 11, 2022


This overhasty and ideologically charged energy policy is clearly reflected above all in the rapidly rising electricity prices. In parallel, the price of gas has quadrupled and German gas storage facilities are at an all-time low.

This is not only what I say, but also what the Wall Street Journal says. This overhasty and ideologically charged energy policy is clearly reflected in the rapidly rising electricity prices. Currently, we consumers pay 0.346 Euros per kWh, which is the highest electricity price in the world. And the trend is still rising, because at the end of 2021, three of the last six nuclear power plants and several coal-fired power plants in Germany will also be shut down as part of the hasty energy turnaround, further exacerbating the overall situation. In parallel, the price of gas has quadrupled and German gas storage facilities are at a low. In addition, the North Stream 2 gas pipeline has been put on hold for the time being and the country is engaged in dangerous verbal sparring with Russia, on which it is largely dependent. So all in one suboptimal.

The head of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Prof. Dr. Stefan Kooths, also attests to the failure of politics and that it is lying into its own pocket – all this at our expense. Not only are we endangering the country’s security of supply, but also our competitiveness.

The energy turnaround – a costly wrong decision

Cheers! ‘Climate backtracking’: Germany Pushes for G-7 Reversal on Fossil Fuels in Climate Blow – ‘U-turn in global efforts to fight climate change’

by Bloomberg, June 25, 2022 in Climate Depot


Germany is pushing for Group of Seven nations to walk back a commitment that would halt the financing of overseas fossil fuel projects by the end of the year, according to people familiar with the matter. That would be a major reversal on tackling climate change as Russia’s war in Ukraine upends access to energy supplies.

A draft text shared with Bloomberg would see the G-7 “acknowledge that publicly supported investment in the gas sector is necessary as a temporary response to the current energy crisis.”

The caveat in the proposal is that such funding is done “in a manner consistent with our climate objectives and without creating lock-in effects.”

The text remains under debate and could change before G-7 leaders hold their summit in the Bavarian Alps starting Sunday hosted by Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The UK opposes the proposal, two of the people said. A German government spokesman declined to comment.

EU Leaders Brace for Hard Winter as Russia Tightens Gas Grip

A person familiar with the discussions said Italy wasn’t actively opposing the German proposal. Italy, like Germany, is highly dependent on Russian gas. On Friday, speaking during a press conference in Brussels, Prime Minister Mario Draghi said Italy has managed to reduce Russian gas imports from 40% last year to 25% at the moment. This has been possible also by signing new gas deals in countries including Congo, Algeria and Angola.

Germany has responded to the cuts by reviving coal plants and providing financing to secure gas supplies, while continuing with plans to phase out nuclear energy. The World Nuclear Association, an industry lobby group, is urging the G-7 to boost access to nuclear technologies.

What the media won’t tell you about U.S. heat waves

by R. Pielke Jr, June 16, 2022 in TheHonestBroker


It’s hot. Real hot. Heat waves in the United States surely must be the most visible and impactful sign of human caused climate change, right? Well, actually no. Let’s take a look at what the U.S. National Climate Assessment and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change say about heat waves in the United States. What they say may surprise you.

Before proceeding, let me emphasize that human-caused climate change is real and significant. Aggressive policies focused on both adaptation and mitigation make very good sense. So too does being accurate about current scientific understandings. The importance of climate change does not mean that we can ignore scientific integrity — actually the opposite, it makes it all the more important. So let’s take a close look at recent assessment reports and what they say about U.S. heat waves.

The figure below comes out of the most recent U.S. National Climate Assessment(NCA). It shows the frequency (top) and intensity (bottom) of heat waves in the U.S. since 1900. The bottom figure is actually based on a paper that I co-authored in 1999, which serves as the basis for an official indicator of climate change used by the Environmental Protection Agency.

..

German Physicist: Human CO2 Emissions Responsible For 0.05°C Of The Global Warming Since 1750

by H. Harde, June 20,2022 in NoTricksZone


Professor Herman Harde, an environmental physicist, has authored a new position paper on the follies of assuming humans significantly impact the climate.

As detailed in his 2017 paper, Dr. Harde concludes the “anthropogenic contribution to the actual CO2 concentration is found to be 4.3% [a figure derived from IPCC AR5], its fraction to the CO2 increase over the Industrial Era is 15% and the average residence time 4 years.”

The IPCC overestimates the thermal effect of doubling CO2 by a factor of 5, as the consequent surface air temperature increase for a 120 ppm increase in CO2 is less than 0.3°C.

“Since only about 15% of the global CO2 increase is of anthropogenic origin, just 15% of 0.3°C, i.e., less than 0.05°C remains, which can be attributed to humans in the overall balance.”

“Changes of our climate can be traced back to natural interaction processes that exceed our human influence by orders of magnitude.”

As Climate Screamers Spread Alarm, Germany’s Long-Term Forest Fire Trend Has Declined

by P.   Sommer, June 22, 23022 in NoTricksZone


It’s become an annual ritual. Every summer, when there has been little rain for a long time and unreasonable people set fire to forests, whether through intent or negligence, a solution comes into play: wind turbines.

There are people who obstruct wind turbines, supposedly in order to protect forests. But the opposite is true. Every obstructed wind turbine fires up the climate crisis with heat, drought and forest fires.”

(Image: Screenshot Twitter)

Old military grounds pose huge hazard to fire fighters

Of course, this is exactly what is happening with the current forest fire in Treuenbrietzen in Brandenburg, alarmists like Quaschning say. But, if you look very closely you will see that once again a forest area burned that had previously served as a military training area for several decades. Such areas are not easy to extinguish because firefighters put themselves in serious danger as remnants of ammunition are lying around everywhere. So the fire has an easy time when it can only be extinguished from a distance. Or, to put it another way, in forests without remnants of ammunition, firefighters would have fires under control quickly.

Nothing to do with temperature

What would help the forest is precipitation. Temperature is not the determining factor for forest fires, but the absence of rain. The forest would also be helped if people stopped handling fire in the forest during times of drought.

Yet we will read and hear the call for more wind power in the forests every time there is a forest fire from the likes of Big Wind lobbyists Volker Quaschning – and of course, without them addressing the forest floor contaminated with munitions. This has always been the case in recent years and has also been a topic in this blog. By the way, with the same protagonist as this year and almost word-same tweets.

Long-term downward trend

 

There are people who obstruct wind turbines, supposedly in order to protect forests. But the opposite is true. Every obstructed wind turbine fires up the climate crisis with heat, drought and forest fires.”

Old military grounds pose huge hazard to fire fighters

Of course, this is exactly what is happening with the current forest fire in Treuenbrietzen in Brandenburg, alarmists like Quaschning say. But, if you look very closely you will see that once again a forest area burned that had previously served as a military training area for several decades. Such areas are not easy to extinguish because firefighters put themselves in serious danger as remnants of ammunition are lying around everywhere. So the fire has an easy time when it can only be extinguished from a distance. Or, to put it another way, in forests without remnants of ammunition, firefighters would have fires under control quickly.

Nothing to do with temperature

What would help the forest is precipitation. Temperature is not the determining factor for forest fires, but the absence of rain. The forest would also be helped if people stopped handling fire in the forest during times of drought.

Yet we will read and hear the call for more wind power in the forests every time there is a forest fire from the likes of Big Wind lobbyists Volker Quaschning – and of course, without them addressing the forest floor contaminated with munitions. This has always been the case in recent years and has also been a topic in this blog. By the way, with the same protagonist as this year and almost word-same tweets.

Long-term downward trend

Correcting Misinformation on Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

by Bud Bromley, May 20, 2022 in budbromley


Abstract

Digital signal processing technology was used to analyze daily carbon dioxide data from the joint NOAA – Scripps Oceanographic Institution’s Global Monitoring Laboratory (MLO).  The period surrounding the 1991 eruption of the Pinatubo volcano was rigorously analyzed for slope and acceleration of net global average atmospheric CO2 concentration and found to be consistent with the theory that Henry’s Law, the Law of Mass Action, and Le Chatelier’s principle control net global average atmospheric CO2 concentration rather than human-produced CO2 emissions.  Background and theory are explained.  A method of using common physics and math for a novel purpose is presented to compare natural CO2emission or absorption with human-produced CO2 emission.  The claim that human-produced CO2 emission is causing increasing global CO2 concentration and climate change is shown to be without scientific merit.  

Key words: carbon, CO2, climate, warming, Impulse, Pinatubo, Henry’s Law, Mauna Loa 

Figure 1. Photo of Pinatubo eruption by Dave Harlowe, USGS. Public domain

Central Europe’s Huge Gas Depot Risks Being Empty Next Winter

by J. Tirone, May 27, 2022 in BNN.Bloomberg


BC-Central-Europe’s-Huge-Gas-Depot-Risks-Being-Empty-Next-Winter , RAG AG

 

(Bloomberg) — Conflict between Russia and Germany risks leaving one of central Europe’s biggest natural gas depots empty next winter, just as the continent urgently needs to ensure supplies due to the war in Ukraine.

The Haidach underground depot — located in Austria but connected only to the German grid — is unlikely to get filled after Moscow cut supplies to a Gazprom PJSC unit seized by Berlin’s government, according to energy officials in Vienna, who asked not to be identified in exchange for discussing sensitive topics. The depot is equivalent to about a quarter of Austrian storage capacity.

Europeans need to build fuel inventories to keep warm and run their industries next winter. But Russian sanctions on Gazprom Germania GmbH — in retaliation for Berlin seizing the unit earlier this year — are depriving Haidach of crucial supplies needed for energy security should the war in Ukraine disrupt gas transit to the continent.

To make matters worse, Austrian efforts to break the German bottleneck and stash gas at the site is plagued by pipeline constraints. The Alpine country would need to find a way to connect Haidach to the Austrian network and the nation’s grid operator said it’s still studying how it could meet the government’s demand.

“From a technical perspective, a connection between the storage facility and the Penta West pipeline would have to be built,” operator Gas Connect said in emailed response to Bloomberg questions.

Austria’s Penta West is the closest pipeline that could be extended to connect Haidach with the rest of Austria’s 900-kilometer (559-mile) network. Receiving the necessary regulatory and environmental permissions for that could take years, one official said. Even if all approvals were granted, the Penta West pipeline’s capacity is already fully booked by traders fueling west European markets.

A second gas tender being prepared in Vienna, which could be awarded to help fill Haidach with supplies other than Russian, is also facing challenges because there’s no way of verifying where the fuel comes from once it’s been injected into pipelines, a second official said.

The Guardian: Global Warming is GOOD for Rare Coral?

by E. Worall, May 28, 2022 in WUWT


A rare Guardian good news climate change story.

One of UK’s rarest corals set to expand its range as climate change warms seas

Pink sea fan, at risk from bottom-trawling, predicted to spread northwards around coast up to Scotland as sea temperatures rise

Karen McVeigh @karenmcveigh1 Fri 27 May 2022 21.00 AEST

It is one of Britain’s rarest and most threatened species, primarily due to bottom-trawling fishing, but researchers have found that the pink sea fan coral could expand its range in the climate crisis.

A slow-growing coral found in shallow waters from the western Mediterranean to north-west Ireland and south-west England and Wales, the pink sea fan (Eunicella verrucosa) is classified as vulnerable by the International Union for Conservation of Nature.

But a study by researchers from Exeter University found that the species is likely to spread northwards – including further around the British coast as far as Scotland – by 2100 as global temperatures rise.

Dr Tom Jenkins, from Exeter University, said: “We built models to predict the current and future habitat of pink sea fans across an area covering the Bay of Biscay, the British Isles and southern Norway.”

Using a global heating model called RCP 8.5, the researchers predicted that by 2100 there would be suitable habitats for pink sea fans north of the current range. Successful colonisation, the study found, would depend on several factors, including dispersal and competition.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/may/27/one-of-uks-rarest-corals-set-to-expand-its-range-as-climate-change-warms-seas

Inconvenient truth for globalists: Arctic ice at 30-year high

by A. Moore, May 25, 2022 in Wind


The World Economic Forum and the globalist movement it helps lead have used the “climate crisis” and the COVID-19 pandemic as pretexts for measures to redistribute the wealth of nations.

But this week, as WEF convenes is annual conference in Davos, Switzerland, the Arctic sea ice expanse so far this month is at a 30-year high, according to data from intergovernmental European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites, points out climate-change skeptic Tony Heller.

EUMETSAT, as the organization is known,  was created through an international convention signed by 30 European nations.

The extent of Arctic ice during the warmer months long has been a metric for climate-change alarmists. In 2007, Al Gore began warning the world that scientists were predicting that by 2013, the Arctic would be ice-free during the summer.

Understanding Abrupt Climate Change in the Late Quaternary

by R.S. Bradley & H.F. Diaz, Nov18,  2021 in Eos


Between about 75,000 and 10,000 years ago, there was a series of sudden and dramatic changes in rainfall patterns in tropical regions likely triggered by changes in ocean water circulation. A recent article in Reviews of Geophysics examines the evidence of these “Tropical Hydroclimatic Events” and explores the potential causes. Here, one of the authors explains more about these abrupt climate change events of the past and suggests how it can inform our understanding of potential future climate change.

What are “Tropical Hydroclimatic Events” (THEs)? When and where did they occur?

When we look back at past climate variations in continental regions of the Tropics and sub-Tropics (~30ºN-30ºS), it is abundantly clear that there were times when climate abruptly changed, causing some areas that were formerly wet to become quite dry, and areas that were formerly dry to become much wetter, disrupting plant and animal communities, as well as people living in the region. We call those changes “Tropical Hydroclimatic Events (THEs).” The changes affected vast areas (and lasted for centuries in some cases_ before the climate shifted back to the former conditions. There were at least half a dozen of these THEs between about 10,000 and 75,000 years ago.

Deloitte: Climate change will cost $178T by 2070

by M. Cohn, May 23, 2022 in AccountingToday


Climate change could cost the global economy $178 trillion over the next 50 years, or a 7.6% cut to global gross domestic product in the year 2070 alone, according to estimates from Deloitte.

A report released Monday by the Big Four firm in conjunction with the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, also acknowledged the human costs of the climate crisis. If global warming reaches approximately 3 degrees Celsius by that point, the toll on human lives could be significant, disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable and leading to loss of productivity and employment, food and water scarcity, declining health and well-being, and ushering in an overall lower standard of living across the world.

Bringing order to the chaos of sea level projections

by Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, May 18, 2022 in ScienceDaily


In their effort to provide decisionmakers with insight into the consequences of climate change, climate researchers at NIOZ, Deltares and UU are bringing order to the large amount of sea level projections, translating climate models to expected sea level rise. Their new overview study was published in the scientific journal Earth’s Future. “These results offer tools for decision making on the shorter and longer term.”

Aimée Slangen is a climate scientist at NIOZ and co-author of the IPCC climate report. Together with climate adaptation experts Marjolijn Haasnoot and Gundula Winter from Deltares and Utrecht University, both also IPCC authors, Slangen investigated the similarities and differences between the many sea level projections published in recent years.

Eight families of projections

“We found that the set of more than 80 different projections can be reduced to eight ‘families’,” says Slangen. “Within each of the families of projections that we identified, researchers have often used similar data, but they have for instance used different model approaches. As a result, every new publication resulted in different amounts of projected sea level rise, depending on whether the publication focused on the shorter term or the longer term, or depending on the models used to estimate the processes causing a potentially large contribution of accelerated melting of the Antarctic ice sheet.”

These details are interesting for scientists, but make it more difficult for users to maintain overview. Slangen: “This can be an issue when you have to decide as a government what you are going to do to protect your coasts from rising sea levels. Decision makers can’t adjust their policies with every new publication.”

Half a meter rise before the end of the century

The researchers hope to dispel this doubt, as all families paint a similar picture for the first 50 cm of sea level rise. Slangen: “We will see the first half-meter rise before the end of this century, even if we start reducing greenhouse gas emissions on a large scale. For this period, it therefore makes little difference which family you use for sea level projections.”

According to adaptation expert Haasnoot, this therefore means that we can already start adapting to the consequences of sea level rise now. “Those who have to make the climate-proof decisions can already get started. However, it is important to take into account the uncertainty of the future. If you plan cleverly, you make sure that what you are doing now for a half meter sea level rise can be adjusted later for one meter. That will save a lot of money and effort.”

Models and emission scenarios

Radiosonde Temps Show Northern Hemisphere, Tropical Warming Has Mostly Paused Since 1998

by K. Richard, May 22, 2022 in NoTricksZone


A new study indicates nearly all the Northern Hemisphere and Tropical warming in the last 40 years occurred by the late 1990s.

CO2 has risen by about 50 ppm since 1998 (367 to 418 ppm).

Interestingly, upper-air measurements of temperature from balloon-borne sensor radiosonde data, shown below in the image from a new study (Madonna et al., 2022), suggest there was more warming from the early 1980s to late 1990s – when CO2 only rose about 25 ppm (341 to 367 ppm) – than there has been this century.

Radiosonde measurements appear to depict mostly flat temperatures trends since 1998 in both the Northern Hemisphere (25°N to 70°N) and tropics (25°S to 25°N).

 

….

Image Source: Madonna et al., 2022

 

La Nina is Not Going Away. What Does This Mean for This Summer’s Weather?

by C. Mass, May 16, 2022 in WUWT


It is now clear that La Nina is not going away, and may hang around into next winter.  

Cold water is entrenched over the central and eastern tropical Pacific (the definition of La Nina) and the latest forecast model runs suggest a continuation into fall.

Several of you have asked:   what does this imply for our summer weather?

Let me tell you.

But first, the bottom line:   the summer effects of La Nina are modest, but will push the western side of our region towards cooler than normal conditions.

The Impacts

During La Nina years, sea surface temperatures off the West coast are usually cooler than normal, and those cooling effects spread inland.

To illustrate, here is the sea surface temperate difference from normal for the summer months (May through September) for La Nina years.    Blue colors are cooler than normal.

Global Sea Surface Temperature Records Suggest Only Modest Warming In The 20th And 21st Centuries

by Dieng et al., 2017 in NoTricksZone


According to Dieng et al., 2017, global sea surface temperatures (SST) cooled slightly (-0.006°C/decade) from 2003 to 2013. This reduced the overall 1950-2014 warming rate to 0.059°C per decade.

Sea and land surface temperatures, ocean heat content, Earth’s
energy imbalance and net radiative forcing over the recent years.

The NCAR/HadCRUT4 global SST record from buoys and ARGO floats also show only modest warming in the last 3 decades. The natural 2015-’16 Super El Nino event is mostly responsible for the overall increasing rate.

Why IPCC Climate Forecasts Are So Dodgy

by R. Barmy, May 5, 2022 in ClimateChangeDispatch


This is the fourth in a series of articles on the IPCC’s AR6 WG1 report. –CCD ed.

Margaret Thatcher helped create the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988. As an Oxford-trained chemist, she understood scientific principles and was concerned that we “… do not live at the expense of future generations.”

By 2002, the Iron Lady turned against global warming extremism by stating in her book Statecraft: Strategies for a Changing World, “What is far more apparent is that the usual suspects on the left have been exaggerating the dangers and simplifying solutions in order to press their agenda…” [bold, links added]

Thatcher’s comments of exaggeration and simplification were a prescient critique of the IPCC report Climate Change 2021: The Physical Sciences Basis.

The IPCC uses computer simulations to predict climate dangers and test solutions. An important step in the computer simulation of a real-world physical process is making sure the simulator can replicate the known history of that physical process.

If a computer model can accurately replicate a significant history of a known process, called hindcasting, it lends credibility that the correct equations are being used and will be able to predict future events.

The Global Warming Scare Is Most Certainly Overheated

by Edidorial Board, May 10, 2022 in Issue&Insight


Does anyone wonder where all the global warming destruction is? After all, the media are unrelenting in telling us how much climate change caused by man is affecting us. Yet no existential threat has emerged. There’s something off with the story.

The climate alarmists have based their predictions of doom on computer models that have been projecting global temperature increases, the likes of which, they tell us, are unsustainable. We must cut our carbon dioxide emissions, even if (actually, especially if) it hurts developed world economies.

This is the narrative we’re bombarded with on a daily basis. And it’s wrong.

Those models that have been used to fuel the fright are, without a doubt, unreliable. According to a recent story published in Nature magazine written by a group of climate modelers, “a subset of the newest generation of models are ‘too hot’ and project climate warming in response to carbon dioxide emissions that might be larger than that supported by other evidence.”

The authors, though, are careful to preserve the narrative, warning that “​​whereas unduly hot outcomes might be unlikely, this does not mean that global warming is not a serious threat.” They can’t help themselves.

While the modelers in the Nature article point specifically to problems with “a subset of the newest generation of models,” it’s obvious that the older models are no better. Last fall we covered a ScienceDaily report which noted that some researchers had concluded “a possible flaw in climate models” had been exposed, as the models failed to reproduce an observed event.

“When the history of climate modeling comes to be written in some distant future,” economist Robert L. Bradley Jr. wrote some months ago for the American Institute for Economic Research, “the major story may well be how the easy, computable answer turned out to be the wrong one, resulting in overestimated warming and false scares from the enhanced (man-made) greenhouse effect.”

PERMAFROST AND CLIMATE CHANGE IN ICELAND

by B. Van Vliet-Lanoé & A. Gudmundsson, Feb 2020, in ResearchGate


Permafrost developed from Termination Ia (Bölling interstadial, 14.5 cal ka BP) in Northern Iceland, in answer to deglaciation. Permafrost persisted or even re-extended during the Preboreal cooling events (at 11.2, 10.3 and 9.3 cal ka BP) synchronic with pulsated glacial advances. It disappeared below 1000 masl during the Thermal Optimum (8-5 cal ka BP). The present-day re-extent was controlled with the cooling related with the Little Ice Age and particularily the Maunder solar Minimum. Continuous permafrost is stable above 1000 masl, but is today melting between 900 and 800 masl. Discontinuous permafrost is vanishing today with the recent climate warming (from 1970), especially in palsa bogs, and on valley slopes with thermokarstic mass wasting.

Holocene ice-free strait followed by dynamic Neoglacial fluctuations: Hornsund, Svalbard

by A. Osaka et al., Apr 25, 2022 in TheHolocene


Keywords

The recession of the Hornbreen-Hambergbreen glaciers (Hornsund, Svalbard) will lead to the formation of a strait between the Greenland and Barents Seas within a few decades. We provide evidence for the earlier existence of this strait, in the Early–Middle Holocene and presumably since 1.3 ka cal. BP until glacier advance 0.7 ± 0.3 ka or earlier. Radiocarbon dating of mollusc shells from the ground moraines in the Hornbreen forefield indicate the existence of the marine environment at the contemporary glacierized head of Hornsund since 10.9 ka cal. BP or earlier due to glacier retreat. The gap in the radiocarbon dates between 3.9 and 1.3 ka cal. BP and the published results of 10Be exposure dating on Treskelen suggest the strait’s closure after glacier advance in the Neoglacial. Subsequent re-opening occurred around 1.3 ka cal. BP, but according to 10Be dates from Treskelen, the strait has again been closed since ca. 0.7 ± 0.3 ka or earlier. The oldest known surge of Hornbreen occurred around 1900. Analysis of Landsat satellite images, morphometric indicators characterizing the glacier frontal zones and previous studies indicate one surge of Hambergbreen (1957–1968) and five re-advances of Hornbreen in the 20th century (after 1936, between 1958 and 1962, in 1986–1990, 1998–1999, 2011). While the warmer Holocene intervals might be a benchmark for the effects of future climate change, glacier dynamics in post-Little Ice Age climate warming seems to be an analogue of glacier retreats and re-advances in the earlier periods of the Holocene.

Sea Level: Rise and Fall – Slowing Down to Speed U

by Kip Hansen, Mai 3,2022 in WUWT


Yes, I do know that acceleration, technically, means just a change in velocity.  But, in every day English, we use acceleration to mean an increase in velocity – speeding up — and deceleration as a decrease in velocity – slowing down.  I mention acceleration and deceleration because one of the major talking points of IPCC reported findings about sea level rise, the incessant media mantra, is that “Sea Level Rise is Accelerating”.  (here, here, here, here, here and hundreds more here)

Is sea level rising?  Yes, of course it is.  It has been rising since about 1750-1775, coinciding with the end of the Little Ice Age.  This is widely accepted as shown below:

 

How do we know?  The important aspect of sea level is how it affects the land at the edges of the oceans.  The water level there is measure by tide gauges at the ports and harbors of the world.  The levels recorded by tide gauges are of local Relative Sea Level (RSL) – the level at which the sea surface hits the land.  This measurement includes both the actual rise in the sea surface height (think: distance from the center of the Earth) plus any vertical movement (VLM) of the tide gauge itself, either up or down.  In many locations the land mass itself is subsiding (sinking) due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) as the land mass readjusts itself for the melting of the glaciers of the last great  Ice Age and at most tide gauge locations, the structure to which the tide gauge tself is attached, such as a pier or dock or sea wall, is also itself subsiding due to compaction of the soil underneath and the fact that many such locations are built on man-made filled substrate.  To see if sea level is rising, it is only necessary to look at high quality tide gauge records for whom the VLM is known to be relatively constant.  The linearity of these graphs is typical, there are many, many more.

Facts About the Arctic in May 2022

by J. Hunt, Apr 30, 2022 in TheGreatWhite Con


 

There’s a few things to note at first glance. The ice floe continued to decrease in thickness into November. It’s thickness then started to increase, but is currently still less than 2 meters. Also the snow depth has gradually been increasing, and (apart from some data glitches!) is now ~38 cm. Finally, for the moment at least, the ice surface temperature has been slowly warming since mid February and is now ~-11 °C.

 

NEW STUDY: “Part Of North Atlantic Is Cooling”…”Natural Fluctuations Have Been Primary Reason”

by P. Gosselin, Apr 30, 2022 in NoTricksZone


New studies on the Atlantic current system assess the threshold between natural fluctuations and a climate change-driven evolution

25 April, 2022/Kiel, Germany. With a new publication in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change, researchers from Kiel once again contribute to the understanding of changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) – also known as the “Gulf Stream System”. It is important both for the global climate as well as for climate events in Europe. The authors focus on the question whether human-induced climate change is already slowing down this oceanic circulation. According to the new study, natural variations are still dominant. Improved observation systems could help detect human influences on the current system at an early stage.

Is the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slowing down? Is this system of ocean currents, which is so important for our climate, likely to come to a halt in the future? Are the observed variations a natural phenomenon or are they already caused by human-induced climate change? Researchers from various scientific disciplines use a wide range of methods to better understand the gigantic oceanic circulation.

“The AMOC provides Europe with a mild climate and determines seasonal rainfall patterns in many countries around the Atlantic. If it weakens over the long term, this will also affect our weather and climate. Other consequences could be a faster rise in sea levels at some coasts or a reduction in the ocean’s ability to take up carbon dioxide and mitigate climate change”, Professor Dr. Mojib Latif, Head of the Research Unit: Marine Meteorology at GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, explains. “We depend on the AMOC in many ways – but so far, we can only guess how it will develop, and whether and how strongly we humans ourselves will push it towards a tipping point where an unstoppable collapse will take its course.”

Using observational data, statistical analyses and model calculations, a team led by Professor Latif has therefore examined changes in the current system over the past one hundred years in greater detail. The results have now been published in the scientific journal Nature Climate Change. According to the researchers, part of the North Atlantic is cooling – a striking contrast to the majority of ocean regions. All evaluations indicate that since the beginning of the 20th century, natural fluctuations have been the primary reason for this cooling. Nonetheless, the studies indicate that the AMOC has started to slow down in recent decades.

5% of the Population Using 25% of Global Resources: Historian Vijay Prashad Schools US on Climate Change

by  V. Prashad, Nov 22, 2021 in News18


A video of Indian historian and journalist Vijay Prashad pointing out US double standards on climate change vis-à-vis developing nations is being widely shared on social media to highlight the “colonial mindset” of the West.

In the video, recorded during Prashad’s participation in a panel discussion at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26), the historian pointed out that the United States makes up 4 to 5% of the world’s population but was still using 25% of global resources.

“You (United States) love lecturing us because you have a colonial mentality. Then there are colonial structures and institutions that lend us money, which is our money. The IMF comes to our societies, you give us our money back as debt and lecture us on how we should live,” Prashad said at the summit held in Glasglow, Scotland, from October 31 to November 13.

Prashad further said that climate change talks at similar summits could not succeed due to this “colonial mentality”. He also talked about the United States attacking China over its coal production and emissions targets.

Predicting Atlantic Hurricanes Using Machine Learning

by V. Herrera et al., Apr 2002, in AtmosphereMPDI


Every year, tropical hurricanes affect North and Central American wildlife and people. The ability to forecast hurricanes is essential in order to minimize the risks and vulnerabilities in North and Central America. Machine learning is a newly tool that has been applied to make predictions about different phenomena. We present an original framework utilizing Machine Learning with the purpose of developing models that give insights into the complex relationship between the land–atmosphere–ocean system and tropical hurricanes. We study the activity variations in each Atlantic hurricane category as tabulated and classified by NOAA from 1950 to 2021. By applying wavelet analysis, we find that category 2–4 hurricanes formed during the positive phase of the quasi-quinquennial oscillation. In addition, our wavelet analyses show that super Atlantic hurricanes of category 5 strength were formed only during the positive phase of the decadal oscillation. The patterns obtained for each Atlantic hurricane category, clustered historical hurricane records in high and null tropical hurricane activity seasons. Using the observational patterns obtained by wavelet analysis, we created a long-term probabilistic Bayesian Machine Learning forecast for each of the Atlantic hurricane categories. Our results imply that if all such natural activity patterns and the tendencies for Atlantic hurricanes continue and persist, the next groups of hurricanes over the Atlantic basin will begin between 2023 ± 1 and 2025 ± 1, 2023 ± 1 and 2025 ± 1, 2025 ± 1 and 2028 ± 1, 2026 ± 2 and 2031 ± 3, for hurricane strength categories 2 to 5, respectively. Our results further point out that in the case of the super hurricanes of the Atlantic of category 5, they develop in five geographic areas with hot deep waters that are rather very well defined: (I) the east coast of the United States, (II) the Northeast of Mexico, (III) the Caribbean Sea, (IV) the Central American coast, and (V) the north of the Greater Antilles.

Science Advice Under Pressure

by R. Pielke Jr, Apr 27, 2022 in TheHonestBroker


This week, I’m grateful for the opportunity to participate in a conference in Brussels on “science advice under pressure,” organized by the European Commission’s Science Advisory Mechanism (it is streaming online if you’d like to join in today and tomorrow). I am on a panel today with Anne Glover (former science advisor to the European Commission), Matthew Flinders (University of Sheffield) and Lara Pivodic (Vrije Universiteit Brussels). Our moderator has asked us to begin today’s conversation by answering the following question:

What are your experiences (either personal or among colleagues) of coming under pressure and facing hostility a result of being a prominent science advisor giving advice in public?

As I have considered this question, my first response was: Have a seat, grab a cup of coffee, and how much time do you have?