by R. Bryce , Dec 18, 2024 in ClimateChangeDispatch
The International Energy Agency has been consistent — and consistently wrong — about global coal demand. [emphasis, links added]
In 2015, the Paris-based agency declared, “The golden age of coal in China seems to be over.” That year, it predicted global coal demand would fall to 5.5 billion tons by 2020.
In its 2017 World Energy Outlook, the IEA said, “China remains a towering presence in coal markets, but our projections suggest that coal use peaked in 2013 and is set to decline by almost 15% over the period to 2040.”
In 2020, the agency said, “Looking ahead to 2025, coal demand is expected to flatten.” It continued,
“Unless there are unforeseen developments that significantly boost coal demand in emerging Asian economies and China, it is likely that global coal demand peaked in 2013 at just over 8B tons.”
Wrong. Wrong. And wrong again.
Today, the IEA released its Coal 2024 report, which says global coal use will grow by another 1% this year to an all-time high of 8.77 billion tons.
The agency also reports that:
“coal demand, production, coal-fired generation, and international coal trade will surpass records reached in 2023 to set new all-time records.”
And here’s the key line:
“The power sector has been the main driver of coal demand growth, with electricity generation from coal set to reach an all-time high of 10,700 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024.”
Why does this matter? Electricity is the form of energy we crave more than any other. Electricity drives modernity and economic growth.
