Causal feedbacks in climate change

by E.H. van Nes et al., March 30, 2015 in Nature Climate Change

The statistical association between temperature and greenhouse gases over glacial cycles is well documented, but causality behind this correlation remains difficult to extract directly from the data.

We show that such variable time lags are typical for complex nonlinear systems such as the climate, prohibiting straightforward use of correlation lags to infer causation.