by Phil J. Watson, Journal of Coastal research, May 2017
Key findings are that at the 95% confidence level, no consistent or compelling evidence (yet) exists that recent rates of rise are higher or abnormal in the context of the historical records available across Europe, nor is there any evidence that geocentric rates of rise are above the global average. It is likely a further 20 years of data will distinguish whether recent increases are evidence of the onset of climate change–induced acceleration.
by Judith Curry, May 19, 2017
The many dimensions of the climate uncertainty monster.
Bret Stephens’ climate change op-ed of several weeks ago Climate of Complete Certainty spawned a number of articles related to uncertainty and climate change.
Andy Revkin’s article in response was titled There are lots of climate uncertainties. Let’s acknowledge and plan for them with honesty. Revkin even mentions the Uncertainty Monster and Jeroen van der Sluijs.
by Meteorologist Paul Dorian, May 15, 2017
Today marks the 6th day in a row that the sun is blank and the 36th time this year – already more spotless days than all of 2016. In what has turned out to be a historically weak solar cycle (#24), the sun continues to transition away from its solar maximum phase and towards the next solar minimum.
by Ian Aitken, May 28, 2017
The eminent scientist Stephen Koonin has stated that, ‘Today’s best estimate of the sensitivity [of the atmosphere to the addition of carbon dioxide]… is no different, and no more certain, than it was 30 years ago. And this is despite an heroic research effort costing billions of dollars.’
by Hiroki Tokinaga et al., PNAS, May 1, 2017
Arctic amplification is a robust feature of climate response to global warming, with large impacts on ecosystems and societies. A long-standing mystery is that a pronounced Arctic warming occurred during the early 20th century when the rate of interdecadal change in radiative forcing was much weaker than at present. Here, using observations and model experiments, we show that the combined effect of internally generated Pacific and Atlantic interdecadal variabilities intensified the Arctic land warming in the early 20th century.
by Kenneth Richard, May 29, 2017