Archives mensuelles : février 2018

climate-debate

Another AGW Epic Fail: New Paper Finds Appalachians Have Been Dramatically COOLING Since 1910

by Eck, February 15, 2018 in K. Richard NoTricksZone

A new scientific study says surface temperatures in the Northeastern U.S. (Appalachian Mountains) have undergone a significant long-term cooling trend since the early 20th century, complicating the detection of a clear anthropogenic global warming (AGW) signal for the region.

According to Eck (2018), the two coldest Appalachian winters since 1910 were recorded in recent years (2009-’10 and 2010-’11), and 9 of the 10 warmest winters occurred prior to 1960.

In the early 1930s, Appalachian winters were 4.7°C warmer than they have been during the last 30 years (1987-2017).

climate-debate, energy and fields

Study: thanks to fracking, we don’t need Obama’s Clean Power Plan (CPP) to meet Paris climate target

by A. Watts, February 16, 2018 in WUWT

From the “thanks to fracking, the biggest driver of lower carbon dioxide emissions has been declining natural gas prices” department.

Even without the clean power plan, US can achieve Paris Agreement emissions reductions

CMU researchers point out that there are many paths to compliance

climate-debate

SEA LEVEL: Rise and Fall – Part 4a – Getting Even More of a Rise Out of Nothing

by Kip Hansen, February 14, 2018 in WUWT

 

Prologue:  I have been writing recently about Sea Level Rise, both as particular local examples (  Guam,  Canton,  Miami,   New York, and  NY/NJ  )  and in the series SEA LEVEL: Rise and Fall, of which this is the fourth-plus installment.

In Part 4, I showed how one gets a rise out of nothing, a neat trick performed by Nerem et al.   That’s R. Steven Nerem, of the CU Sea Level Research Group. The blinking image is the summary of that essay.

only geology

Why the seafloor starts moving Marine scientists find possible cause of landslides off Northwest Africa

by Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR), February 13, 2018 in ScienceDaily

When the seabed loses its stability and starts to move, it often happens in much larger dimensions than landslides ashore — and at slopes with very low gradients. At the same time, discplacement of large amounts of sediment under water scan cause devastating tsunamis. However, why and when submarine landslides develop is hardly understood. Marine scientists have now published possible causes based on observations on submarine landslides off the coast of northwest Africa.

climate and geology

Why did gas hydrates melt at the end of the last ice age?

by GEOMAR Inst., February 12, 2018 in WUWT

GEOMAR researchers find links between sedimentation and methane seeps on the seafloor off the coast of Norway

Large amounts of the greenhouse gas methane are locked up as solid gas hydrates in the continental slopes of ocean margins. Their stability depends on low temperatures and high pressure. However, other factors that influence gas hydrate stability are not as well understood. A German-Norwegian research team has found evidence off the coast of Norway that the amount of sediment deposited on the seafloor can play a crucial role. The study has been published today in the international journal Nature Communications.

climate-debate

Record 2018 snowfall continues increasing snowfall trends showing UN IPCC AR5 report is flawed

by Larry Hamlin, February 13, 2018 in WUWT

The record snowfalls of 2018 that are sweeping across the Northern Hemisphere and continuing the growth trend in winter snowfall levels provide yet more compelling evidence that the UN IPCC AR5 WG1 climate report and models are flawed because this report concludes that future snowfall level trends will only decline.(…)

energy and fields, press and newspapers

OPEC’s Oil Price Nightmare Is Coming True

by Julian Lee, February 11, 2018 in BloombergGadlfy

The latest surge in U.S. oil output will probably hasten the country’s rise to the top of the producer pile. More important, it’s starting to look as though at least half of OPEC’s nightmare scenario for 2018 — a surge in shale output and slowdown in demand growth — is coming true.

Last week’s avalanche of releases from the U.S. Department of Energy showed daily oil production above 10 million barrels a day for the first time since 1970.

better to know...?, climate-debate

New Scientist prints a more reasoned polar bear article but myths persist

by Dr S. Crockford, February 12, 2018 in ClimateChangeDispatch

It acknowledges that polar bear numbers have not declined in recent years even though summer sea ice dropped dramatically but goes on to perpetuate a number of myths that might not have happened if the author had done his homework or quizzed his other experts as thoroughly as he did me.

climate-debate

Arctic chill at 85F below zero – So cold, Eskimos advised to stay inside!

by A. Watts, February 12, 2018 in WUWT

Arctic Weather Brrrrreaking Records

Rankin Inlet, Nunavut gets cold in the winter. Located on the northwestern shore of the Hudson Bay at 62 degrees north and between Chesterfield Inlet and Arviat, the town is definitely in a remote yet exposed region. Weather is just a part of life and recently the weather has been colder than cold.

climate-debate

A never before western published paleoclimate study from China suggests warmer temperatures in the past

by A. Watts, February 11, 2018 in WUWT

Preliminary Conclusions:

1. During the first 2000 years of our 5000-year civilization, most of the time, the annual average temperature was 2ºC higher than now. The temperature in January was 3-5ºC higher than now.

2. From then on, there was a series of temperature fluctuations. The lowest temperatures occurred in AD 1000, 400, 1200, and 1700. The range of fluctuation was 1-2ºC.

3. In every 400-800 period, a smaller cycle lasting 50 to 100 years can be detected with a temperature range of 0.5 -1ºC.

4. During the above cycles, it seems that any coldest period started from the Pacific coast of East Asia. The cold waves then moved westward to Europe and the Atlantic coasts. And at the same time, there were also trends from the North to the South.

climate-debate

Remember when the islands of Tuvalu were going to be inundated by sea level rise? Never mind…

by A. Watts, February 9, 2018, in WUWT

Surprise! Poster child for sea level rise, Tuvalu, is actually growing!

From the “we told you so,  again, and again” department. We’ve had several articles about the island of Tuvalu and the ridiculous claims of sea level rise causing it to disappear, while at the same time they are building new hotels and airports to attract tourists. Willis has also had several articles on how Pacific atolls grow, and float, rather than sink as sea level advances.

Now, a study confirms what we’ve already known – atolls, and in particular Tuvalu is growing, and increasing land area. So much for climate alarmism. From Nature communications:

climate-debate

Forecast for Solar Cycle 25

by J.A. Marusek, February 2018, in WUWT

The sun is the natural source of heat and light for our planet. Without our sun, the earth would be a cold dead planet adrift in space. But the sun is not constant. It changes and these subtle changes affect the Earth’s climate and weather.

At the end of solar cycle 23, sunspot activity declined to a level not seen since the year 1913. [Comparing Yearly Mean Total Sunspot Numbers1]

The following was observed during the solar cycle 24: (…)

climate-debate

Maunder Minimum & The CET

by P Homewood, February 10, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

As mentioned yesterday, scientists now believe we could be heading into a 50 year period of reduced solar activity similar to what happened in the mid-17th century, which could lead to a drop in global temperatures of “several tenths of a degree Celsius”.

 As has been pointed out, climate is a far more complex matter than climate scientists admit, and one about which we still know very little.

Whether a Maunder-like Minimum will happen again in the next few years, and whether it will have the effect claimed, remain to be seen.

But there is considerable evidence that the Maunder Minimum did coincide with a sharp fall in temperatures across the NH, as NASA show above.

See also here

climate-debate

The fantasy of accelerating sea level rise just got hosed

by A. Watts, February 4, 2018 in WUWT

We’ve been told over an over again that global warming would melt the icecaps, and melt Greenland, and that would result in catastrophic sea level rise flooding cities. We’ve also been told that “sea level rise is “accelerating” but in an investigation done here on WUWT by Willis Eschenbach, Putting the Brakes on Acceleration, he noted in 2011 that there seems to be no evidence of it at all, and notes that sea level was rising faster in the first half of the record.

climate-debate

Marvel et al.’s new paper on estimating climate sensitivity from observations

by Nic Lewis, February 5, 2018 in ClimateAudit

Recently a new model-based paper on climate sensitivity was published by Kate Marvel, Gavin Schmidt (the head of NASA GISS) and others, titled ‘Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations’. It appears to me that the novel part of its analysis is faulty, and that the part which isn’t faulty isn’t novel.

climate-debate

A possible compromise on global warming slowdowns and pauses

by Sheldon Walker, February 3, 2018 in WUWT

I recently read an article by Tamino aka Grant Foster of Portland, ME, called “Global Warming: the Relentless Trend“.

Many of the points that he made annoyed me, and I started to write an article to document his many errors. Half way through the article, I suddenly realised that some of the issues that skeptics and warmists argue about, like slowdowns and pauses, are caused by the terminology, and the definitions of the words that we use.

So that you can enjoy how I was going to trash Tamino’s article, I will leave in the half of the article that I had already written, before I had my revelation.

climate-debate

Climate change versus deforestation: Implications for tree species distribution in the dry forests of southern Ecuador

by C.E. Manchego et al.,  December 21, 2017 in PLOS_One

Using presence-only modeling and native forest masks from the Ecuadorian Ministry of Environment, we obtained approximations of characteristic tree species distributions in the dry deciduous forest of southwestern Ecuador, which are threatened by deforestation and climate change. Our estimates indicate that deforestation affects more spatial range than climate change, even under an extreme climate change scenario. Despite this result, climate change may cause additional stress at the species and community levels

climate and geology

Study: Early humans witnessed global cooling, warming, and massive fires from comet debris impacts

by U. of Kansas, February 2, 2018 in WUWT, A. Watts

 On a ho-hum day some 12,800 years ago, the Earth had emerged from another ice age. Things were warming up, and the glaciers had retreated.

Out of nowhere, the sky was lit with fireballs. This was followed by shock waves.

Fires rushed across the landscape, and dust clogged the sky, cutting off the sunlight. As the climate rapidly cooled, plants died, food sources were snuffed out, and the glaciers advanced again. Ocean currents shifted, setting the climate into a colder, almost “ice age” state that lasted an additional thousand years.

Finally, the climate began to warm again, and people again emerged into a world with fewer large animals and a human culture in North America that left behind completely different kinds of spear points.

better to know...?

DO-IT-YOURSELF TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTION

by M.  Chase, February 2, 2018 in WUWT

This article describes a simple but effective procedure for regional average temperature reconstruction, a procedure that you, yes you dear reader, can fully understand and, if you have some elementary programming skills, can implement.

To aid readability, and to avoid the risk of getting it wrong, no attempt is made in the article to give proper attribution to previous work of others, but a link is provided at the end to where a list of references can be found.

(…)