Tous les articles par Alain Préat

Full-time professor at the Free University of Brussels, Belgium apreat@gmail.com apreat@ulb.ac.be • Department of Earth Sciences and Environment Res. Grp. - Biogeochemistry & Modeling of the Earth System Sedimentology & Basin Analysis • Alumnus, Collège des Alumni, Académie Royale de Sciences, des Lettres et des Beaux Arts de Belgique (mars 2013). http://www.academieroyale.be/cgi?usr=2a8crwkksq&lg=fr&pag=858&rec=0&frm=0&par=aybabtu&id=4471&flux=8365323 • Prof. Invited, Université de Mons-Hainaut (2010-present-day) • Prof. Coordinator and invited to the Royal Academy of Sciences of Belgium (Belgian College) (2009- present day) • Prof. partim to the DEA (third cycle) led by the University of Lille (9 universities from 1999 to 2004) - Prof. partim at the University of Paris-Sud/Orsay, European-Socrates Agreement (1995-1998) • Prof. partim at the University of Louvain, Convention ULB-UCL (1993-2000) • Since 2015 : Member of Comité éditorial de la Revue Géologie de la France http://geolfrance.brgm.fr • Since 2014 : Regular author of texts for ‘la Revue Science et Pseudosciences’ http://www.pseudo-sciences.org/ • Many field works (several weeks to 2 months) (Meso- and Paleozoic carbonates, Paleo- to Neoproterozoic carbonates) in Europe, USA (Nevada), Papouasia (Holocene), North Africa (Algeria, Morrocco, Tunisia), West Africa (Gabon, DRC, Congo-Brazzaville, South Africa, Angola), Iraq... Recently : field works (3 to 5 weeks) Congo- Brazzaville 2012, 2015, 2016 (carbonate Neoproterozoic). Degree in geological sciences at the Free University of Brussels (ULB) in 1974, I went to Algeria for two years teaching mining geology at the University of Constantine. Back in Belgium I worked for two years as an expert for the EEC (European Commission), first on the prospecting of Pb and Zn in carbonate environments, then the uranium exploration in Belgium. Then Assistant at ULB, Department of Geology I got the degree of Doctor of Sciences (Geology) in 1985. My thesis, devoted to the study of the Devonian carbonate sedimentology of northern France and southern Belgium, comprised a significant portion of field work whose interpretation and synthesis conducted to the establishment of model of carbonate platforms and ramps with reefal constructions. I then worked for Petrofina SA and shared a little more than two years in Angola as Director of the Research Laboratory of this oil company. The lab included 22 people (micropaleontology, sedimentology, petrophysics). My main activity was to interpret facies reservoirs from drillings in the Cretaceous, sometimes in the Tertiary. I carried out many studies for oil companies operating in this country. I returned to the ULB in 1988 as First Assistant and was appointed Professor in 1990. I carried out various missions for mining companies in Belgium and oil companies abroad and continued research, particularly through projects of the Scientific Research National Funds (FNRS). My research still concerns sedimentology, geochemistry and diagenesis of carbonate rocks which leads me to travel many countries in Europe or outside Europe, North Africa, Papua New Guinea and the USA, to conduct field missions. Since the late 90's, I expanded my field of research in addressing the problem of mass extinctions of organisms from the Upper Devonian series across Euramerica (from North America to Poland) and I also specialized in microbiological and geochemical analyses of ancient carbonate series developing a sustained collaboration with biologists of my university. We are at the origin of a paleoecological model based on the presence of iron-bacterial microfossils, which led me to travel many countries in Europe and North Africa. This model accounts for the red pigmentation of many marble and ornamental stones used in the world. This research also has implications on the emergence of Life from the earliest stages of formation of Earth, as well as in the field of exobiology or extraterrestrial life ... More recently I invested in the study from the Precambrian series of Gabon and Congo. These works with colleagues from BRGM (Orléans) are as much about the academic side (consequences of the appearance of oxygen in the Paleoproterozoic and study of Neoproterozoic glaciations) that the potential applications in reservoir rocks and source rocks of oil (in collaboration with oil companies). Finally I recently established a close collaboration with the Royal Institute of Natural Sciences of Belgium to study the susceptibility magnetic signal from various European Paleozoic series. All these works allowed me to gain a thorough understanding of carbonate rocks (petrology, micropaleontology, geobiology, geochemistry, sequence stratigraphy, diagenesis) as well in Precambrian (2.2 Ga and 0.6 Ga), Paleozoic (from Silurian to Carboniferous) and Mesozoic (Jurassic and Cretaceous) rocks. Recently (2010) I have established a collaboration with Iraqi Kurdistan as part of a government program to boost scientific research in this country. My research led me to publish about 180 papers in international and national journals and presented more than 170 conference papers. I am a holder of eight courses at the ULB (5 mandatory and 3 optional), excursions and field stages, I taught at the third cycle in several French universities and led or co-managed a score of 20 Doctoral (PhD) and Post-doctoral theses and has been the promotor of more than 50 Masters theses.

Was Global Warming The Cause of the Great Northwest Heatwave? Science Says No.

by C. Rotter, July 6, 2021 in WUWT


Reposted from The Cliff Mass Weather Blog

During the past week, the Pacific Northwest experienced the most severe heat event of the past century.

All-time high-temperature records were broken throughout the region, often by large margins. Many in the media, several local and national politicians, and some activist environmental scientists have claimed that this event was “driven by” or predominantly forced by human-inspired global warming (usually referred to as “climate change”).But such global warming claims are not supported by the facts and our best scientific understanding.  

Truth and Rigorous Science About Climate Change is Necessary for Wise Decisions
In this blog, I will use observations, modeling, climatological data, and the peer-reviewed scientific literature to demonstrate that human-caused global warming played a very small role in the extreme heat event that we just experienced here in the Pacific Northwest.I will describe the origins of a meteorological black swan eventand how the atmosphere is capable of attaining extreme, unusual conditions without any aid from our species.As you read this, consider that I have actively pursued research on Northwest heatwaves, published several papers in the peer-reviewed literature on this specific topic, and have run both weather prediction and climate models that simulate such events.  This subject is in my wheelhouse.

I also discuss the seriousness of misinformation.   You and others can not make wise decisions when the information provided to you is not based on truth and science.

NEW NASA STUDY: SATELLITES SEE COOLING IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE

Cap Allon, July 1, 2021 in Electroverse


NASA satellites have revealed that the mesosphere –the layer of the atmosphere some 30-50 miles above our heads– is COOLING and contracting.

Using decades of data and a number of satallites, a team at NASA have identified a cooling mesosphere.

“We had to put together three satellites’ worth of data,” said Scott Bailey, atmospheric scientist at Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, head of the new research, published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics.

“You need several decades to get a handle on these trends and isolate what’s happening,” continued Bailey, who goes on to blame the usual “greenhouse gas emissions” for the observed changes –well how else would they have obtained funding– however, Bailey also mentions “solar cycle changes, and other effects”.

Together, the satellites provided about 30 years of observations, indicating that the summer mesosphere over Earth’s poles is cooling four to five degrees Fahrenheit and contracting 500 to 650 feet per decade.

Unusually strong cold weather outbreak spreads from Antarctica into central South America, bringing early winter temperature records and first snowfall after decades

by A. Flis, July 4, 2021 in SevereWeatherEurope


Winter in the Southern Hemisphere has brought an unusual cold weather outbreak from Antarctica into South America. Low-temperature records were broken, with snowfall returning to parts of south Brazil after decades.

The source of the cold air was Antarctica, which is quite colder than normal this season. As you will also see, the Southern Hemisphere is also colder than normal, bringing down the 2021 global temperatures to the lowest in the past 6 years. All that, while record heatwaves are raging across the United States and Canada.

ACCUWEATHER METEOROLOGIST: GLOBAL WARMING NOT TO BLAME FOR NORTHWEST’S HEATWAVE

by Cap Allon, June 30, 2021 in Elecroverse


Record heat has been felt across the the Pacific Northwest this week, which has led the MSM and their placard-brandishing, sandal wearing EOTW groupies to draw the connection to ‘global warming’ aka ‘the climate crisis’ aka ‘terrifying terra firma broiling’.

However, AccuWeather Meteorologist Joe Lundberg is on the record as saying that AGW isn’t to blame here.

Risking a backlash from his bosses, and from those faceless elites on high, Lundberg very reasonably states: “I just think that right now we’re seeing a very unusual pattern across most of the northern hemisphere where there’s a lot of extremes.”

Lunberg sees erratic jet streams as the main culprit here, which, as Electroverse has been saying for years, are weakening due to historically low solar activity — and while Lunberg doesn’t touch on solar output, he does reference a “big upper level trough that’s in the Aleutians”.

Right now, weather patterns across the country are very unusual, explains Lundberg: “Downstream, there’s a massive upper level ridge that’s in the Northwest, that’s why they’re seeing the record heat there.

“And then downstream along the eastern seaboard, we’re also seeing another upper level ridge.

“But not everyone’s getting this heat,” adds Lundberg — far from it, “across the deep south, for example, it’s actually cooler than average and looks like its gonna stay that way for the foreseeable future.”

Latest GFS runs see temperature departures some 16-20C below the seasonal average across vast regions, particularly in New Mexico:

El Niño and the lengthening New Pause: now 6 years 10 months

by C. Monckton of Brenchley, July 3, 2021 in WUWT


The latest UAH temperature anomalies show that the New Pause has lengthened by another two months to 6 years 10 months. As usual, the Pause is defined as the longest period, up to the most recent month for which data are available, during which the linear-regression trend on the monthly global mean lower-troposphere temperature anomalies shows no increase.

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Pauses have no predictive purpose. Just because there has been no global warming for more than seven years (HadCRUT4) or almost seven years (UAH), that does not mean there will be no global warming in future.

see also:  Global Warming Stalls Again – Back To Levels Seen 20 Years Ago! And: No Warming In Tokyo This Century

Heatwave Reporting Shows How Science Has Been Corrupted By Climate Groupthinktch

by A. Watts, July 1, 2021 in ClimateChangeDispatch


The headline in E&E News, WOWT-TV, Scientific American, WorldNewsNetwork, and other media outlets this week, “Unprecedented Heat Wave in Pacific Northwest Driven by Climate Change” couldn’t possibly be more unscientific.

With absolutely no analysis, no historical context, and nothing but conjecture, author Anne. C. Mulkern eschewed science for advocacy in her reporting of the brief Pacific Northwest (PNW) heatwave this week.

Yes, the heatwave set all-time high-temperature records in Washington, Oregon, and Canada. But consider this: At best, we have about 150 years of reliable weather records for the PNW, so a “black swan” outlier eventlike this isn’t surprising.

It’s happened before, most certainly. We just weren’t around to observe it. After all, Native Americans did not keep written weather records.

High- (and low-) temperature records are nothing new. But it is important to look at the past because data shows us that more high-temperature records were set during the first half of the twentieth century than during the past 50 years.

Even the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) confirms this.

SANTA CATARINA, BRAZIL LOGS ITS THIRD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF RARE SNOW AND SUB-ZERO COLD

by Cap Allon, July 2, 2021 in Elecrroverse


Santa Catarina recorded snowfall in Urupema and Sao Joaquim on Wednesday — the third consecutive day of the rare phenomenon, which also included unusually chilly sub-zero temperatures.

Santa Catarina is the southernmost state of Brazil.

Temperatures across the state have plunged to a record-challenging -7.5C (18.5F), and beyond, this week, and heavy snow has been registered.

According to the Information Center of Environmental Resources and Hydrometeorology of Santa Catarina (Epagri / Ciram), this is the first year since 2000 that snow has been recorded on three consecutive days.

As reported by riotimesonline.com, plunging temperatures and favorable humidity levels have brought substantial accumulations of snow to the towns and cities located in and around the Santa Catarina Mountains

 

Five Asian countries account for 80% of new coal power investment

by J. Ambrose, One 30, 2021 in TheGuradian


Five Asian countries are jeopardising global climate ambitions by investing in 80% of the world’s planned new coal plants, according to a report.

Carbon Tracker, a financial thinktank, has found that China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Vietnam plan to build more than 600 coal power units, even though renewable energy is cheaper than most new coal plants.

The investments in one of the most environmentally damaging sources of energy could generate a total of 300 gigawatts of energy – enough to power the UK more than three times over – despite calls from climate experts at the UN for all new coal plants to be cancelled.

Catharina Hillenbrand von der Neyen, the author of the report, said: “These last bastions of coal power are swimming against the tide, when renewables offer a cheaper solution that supports global climate targets. Investors should steer clear of new coal projects, many of which are likely to generate negative returns from the outset.”

Greenland Ice Core CO2 during the past 1,000 years


by R. Hannon, July 2, 2021 in WUWT


Introduction
This post compares CO2 ice core measurements from Greenland to those from Antarctica over the last millennium. Paleoclimate studies typically use only Antarctic ice cores to evaluate past CO2 fluctuations. This is because the entire Greenland CO2 datasets were deemed unreliable due to chemical reactions with impurities in the ice and therefore have not been used in studies since the late 1990’s. This post will demonstrate that CO2 data from Greenland ice cores have scientific value and respond to key paleoclimate events such as the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period.

Antarctic Ice Core CO2 Trends
Antarctic ice CO2 data is readily available and has been studied extensively (Bauska, 2015, Ahn, 2012, Siegenthaler, 2005 and Rubino, 2019). Most of the focus of recent studies has been on high snow accumulation sites which tend to have higher resolution and less smoothing of the trapped gas age in ice bubbles due to the firn to ice transition. Gas age width and resolution ranges from 10 years in Law Dome ice cores to 65 years in Dronning Maud Land DML. Figure 1 shows CO2 data from Antarctic high-resolution ice cores over the past millennium.

Ahn et al, 2012, compiled CO2 records from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) and compared them to other key datasets such as Dronning Maud Land (DML), and Law Dome. Their study recognizes and discusses elevated CO2 during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) at 1000 AD, decrease of CO2 around 1600 AD during the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the subsequent rapid increase beginning around 1850 AD.

UAH Global Temperature Update for June 2021: -0.01 deg. C

by Roy Spencer, July 3, 2021 in WUWT


The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for June, 2021 was -0.01 deg. C, down from the May, 2021 value of +0.08 deg. C.

REMINDER: We have changed the 30-year averaging period from which we compute anomalies to 1991-2020, from the old period 1981-2010. This change does not affect the temperature trends.

The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).

 

Greenland Temperatures & The AMO

by P. Homewood, June 13, 2021 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


It’s not new, but it’s worth going over it again.

We have seen how Greenland temperatures rose sharply in the 1920s, and remained at levels similar to the last decade until the 1960s, when they fell equally sharply. This change in climate is closely interlinked with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which switches from cold to warm phase, and back again, roughly every 50 to 60 years:

US Government Tries To Erase Historical Forest Fire Data To Fabricate Another Fake Crisis

by P. Gosselin, June 8, 2021 in NoTricksZone


The US government deletes more than 50 years of early data on forest fires in order to make it look like forest fires are more widespread, and linked to CO2. Should be Investigated under the RICO Act. 

There’s a reason why Smokey the Bear has been around more than 75 years with his message. “Only you can prevent forest fires.” The US government had known for decades that forest fires were a serious problem – much more serious than today.

They have forest fire data going back over 100 years. But suddenly, since January of this year, the US government is acting like there had never been a Smokey the Bear before 1983 and that forest fires are just a recent problem caused by manmade climate change.

It’s all a fraud, explains data analyst and software expert Tony Heller in his latest video.

UAH Global Temperature Update for May 2021: +0.08 deg. C

by R. Spencer, June 1st, 2021 in GlobalWarming


The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for May, 2021 was +0.08 deg. C, up from the April, 2021 value of -0.05 deg. C.

REMINDER: We have changed the 30-year averaging period from which we compute anomalies to 1991-2020, from the old period 1981-2010. This change does not affect the temperature trends.

The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.14 C/decade (+0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).

Antarctica wasn’t quite as cold during the last ice age as previously thought

by OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY, June 6, 2021 in WUWT


CORVALLIS, Ore. – A study of two methods for reconstructing ancient temperatures has given climate researchers a better understanding of just how cold it was in Antarctica during the last ice age around 20,000 years ago.

Antarctica, the coldest place on Earth today, was even colder during the last ice age. For decades, the leading science suggested ice age temperatures in Antarctica were on average about 9 degrees Celsius cooler than at present.

An international team of scientists, led by Oregon State University’s Christo Buizert, has found that while parts of Antarctica were as cold as 10 degrees below current temperatures, temperatures over central East Antarctica were only 4 to 5 degrees cooler, about half of the previous estimates.

The findings were published this week in Science.

“This is the first conclusive and consistent answer we have for all of Antarctica,” said Buizert, an Oregon State University climate change specialist. “The surprising finding is that the amount of cooling is very different depending on where you are in Antarctica. This pattern of cooling is likely due to changes in the ice sheet elevation that happened between the ice age and today.”

Understanding the planet’s temperature during the last ice age is critical to understanding the transition from a cold to a warm climate and to modeling what might occur as the planet warms as a result of climate change today, said Ed Brook, a paleoclimatologist at OSU and one of the paper’s co-authors.

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India, Australia, China, Russia pushing ‘massive’ coal expansion

by Ians, June 5, 2021 in Energyworld


Coal producers are actively pursuing 2.2 billion tonnes per annum of new mine projects around the world, a growth of 30 per cent from current production levels, a new report from Global Energy Monitor said on Thursday.

The first-of-its-kind analysis surveyed 432 proposed coal projects globally and found a handful of provinces and states in China, Russia, India, and Australia are responsible for 77 per cent (1.7 billion tonnes per annum) of new mine activity. If developed, these proposed projects boost supply to over four times the 1.5 degrees Celsius-compliant pathway necessary to meet the goal of the Paris climate agreement.

While three-fourths (1.6 billion tonnes per annum) of proposed coal mine capacity is in the early stages of planning and thus vulnerable to cancellation, the report finds one quarter (0.6 billion tonnes per annum) of proposed mine capacity is already under construction. The prospect of a low-carbon transition and tighter emission policies put these projects at risk of becoming up to $91 billion in stranded assets.

CARBON CYCLE

by C. Spencer, June 7, 2021 in WUWT


The increase in 12C in the atmosphere is, in my opinion, weak evidence that the annual increases are driven only by fossil fuel sources. The atmosphere can’t tell ‘anthropogenic’ carbon dioxide from natural carbon dioxide. It seems unlikely that a source that represents only about 4% of the total flux is going to drive the system. The oceans sequester the vast majority of the carbon. One would expect that warming oceans (from whatever forcing) would increase the rate of out-gassing in mid-latitudes, and decrease the rate of extraction at high-latitudes. It seems more reasonable to me that, in a world with warming oceans, there would be a shift in the relative amounts of carbon in the oceans and the atmosphere. That would be the case even in the absence of any anthropogenic carbon.

 

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The Manichean Mann

by M. Hulme, June 2021 in IssuesinSci&Techn


Michael Mann has been in the climate wars for well over a decade now. As he reminds us frequently in this new book, he has been in the crosshairs of his enemies, has fought off the attack dogs, and carries the scars of battle. Even the environmentalist Bill McKibben’s promotional puff for the book valorizes Mann in terms of his “scars from the climate wars.” The military framing of climate change long predates Mann’s involvement, but it certainly is a framing he has done much to promote through his blogs, tweets, and general persona-at-large in public discourse.

And so it is not surprising that Mann’s new book continues his characterization of the politics of climate change through a series of complex military tropes and metaphors. Wars, battles, attacks, fights, and enemies litter its 260 pages. Much of what I said about Mann’s combative militancy in my review of his 2012 book, The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines, can be equally applied to this new one. Now, his central argument is that there is a new war afoot. The old war—fought mostly around the claims of climate scientists—has been (largely) won. But a new war has been ignited; Mann and his allies are now having to fight against the forces of inaction.

Mann is half right in his diagnosis. The main axes of public dispute and argumentation about climate change have changed. The politics of climate change manifest differently now than they did a decade ago. More centrally in focus—and this is a good thing—are the substantive and pressing questions about the sorts of actions, policies, and interventions that are needed, appropriate, and effective to attenuate the risks of a changing climate. What are their respective costs and benefits? How do different options interact with diverse cultural values and collide with vested interests? How do they complicate international geopolitics?

So in this observation Mann is correct. The focus of the issue has moved from “is there a problem?” to “what should be done about it?”

Ocean Temperature Limit – Corrections and Part 4

by R. Willoughby, May 29, 2021 in WUWT


(The author appreciates the availability NASA’s Earth Observations satellite data sets used in this analysis.)

Now a four part series that analyses the role of atmospheric water in regulating Earth’s thermal balance.

Part 1 An analysis of the temperature of tropical ocean warm pools and the temperature limiting processes

Part 2 Discusses the mechanism of deep convection concluding with the persistency of clouds over ocean warm pools.

Part 3 Examines the global ocean energy balance over an annual cycle month-by-month to identify the role of atmospheric water in regulating the energy balance.

Part 4:  The Atmospheric Gear Change

Total Precipitable Water & Level of Free Convection

 

No sign of a climate emergency

by GWPF, May 29, 2021


A new review of weather and climate data based on observational data from 2020 finds little evidence to support the idea of a “climate emergency”.

 

The annual report, by Professor Ole Humlum, reviews a wide range of temperature and weather data, as well as records on sea-level, storms and ice and snow cover.

Temperature records for the Earth’s surface show that 2020 was a comparatively warm year, but that by the end of the year there was a marked cooling driven by natural ocean cycles in the Pacific. This cooling was also observed higher in the atmosphere.

Sea ice levels globally remained low, but are now increasing in the Southern Hemisphere. Global snow cover remained stable and there is still no significant trend in tropical storms.

Professor Humlum said:

The weather and weather extremes we are experiencing are still dominated by natural fluctuations. Rapid and frightening changes are nowhere to be seen in the observational data as this annual review shows.”

https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2021/05/State-of-the-Climate-2020.pdf

MONTHLY LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS FALL IN VANUATU, AS LATE-SEASON SNOW AND UNPRECEDENTED COLD SWEEP TORONTO, CANADA

by Cap Allon, May 29, 2021 in Electroverse


The “crazy conspiracy theorists” are being proved right, again. But it was never crazy conspiracies that were being theorized. The outspoken few were merely “applying logic” — a skill the impaired herds were educated out of a long time ago, as children, in the indoctrination stations known as schools.

The world is corrupt — most people are all too happy to agree with this statement.

We are being lied to at every corner of life— yet most people struggle with this one.

MONTHLY LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS TUMBLE IN VANUATU

Following on the heels of New Zealand’s all-time cold, record lows are now sweeping the Y-shaped South Pacific Ocean archipelago of VANUATU–which consists of roughly 83 volcanic islands and stretches approx. 1,300 kilometres.

On May 27, the mercury sank to 14.3C (57F) at Pekoa Airport, located on Espiritu Santo Island

On May 28, a low of 12.5C (54.5F) was registered at the Port Vila Airport, situated on Efate Island.

Both readings are new record lows for the month of May.

LATE-SEASON SNOW AND UNPRECEDENTED COLD SWEEP TORONTO, CANADA

May 28 was a historic ‘double-whammy’ of a day in Toronto, Canada.

First off, the day entered the weather books as the city’s coldest May 28 ever recorded, according to Environment Canada warning preparedness meteorologist Peter Kimbell.

The daytime high had only reached a frigid 4C (39.2F) by Friday afternoon.

For the next coldest May 28 you have to turn all the way back in 1889, according to books for downtown Toronto dating back to 1840. In other words, it’s been 130 years since Torontonians have suffered a May 28 this cold.

“Likelihood Of A Sub-Cooled Summer For Europe In 2021”, Hale Solar Cycle Suggests

by Dr Ludger Laurenz, May 30, 2021, in NoTricksZone


So far, much of Europe has seen a cold and wet 2021. It may be related to solar cycles. 

An essay at Die kalte Sonne by Dr. Ludger Laurenz looks at the relationship between solar activity and weather trends, and believes this summer’s temperature will be 1.5°C lower.

There are many scientific opinions about solar activity’s impact on weather and climate, which differ and contradict each other. For example, a new publication by Leamon et al. provides an important building block for uncovering solar influence. Background here.

Solar influence in historical climate data substantiated

In the Leamon et al publication, the authors looked at the 22-year Hale solar cycles and saw it is possible to detect and substantiate solar influence in historical climate data (from tropical ocean surface temperature to temperature, sunshine, and precipitation data) and to make quantitative statements about the influence of solar activity on weather data.

Norway winter temperature and sun: “high statistical significance”

“Using the alternating years between Hale cycles, a correlation between the 22-year Hale cycle of the Sun and the trend of winter temperature in the polar night of Norway can be demonstrated with high statistical significance,” Dr Laurenz adds.

“Parallel to the temperature trend, the solar influence of the Hale cycles is also evident in the index values of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations,” says Laurenz  in addition. “Evidence of the influence of solar activity in the polar night of Scandinavia demonstrates that differences in solar activity are transmitted to the near-surface temperature via amplification mechanisms such as change in circulation patterns in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations.”

The sun’s role in weather patterns is a great significance, and so CO2 is not the main driver at all.

NYIRAGONGO VOLCANO ERUPTS TO 45,000 FEET: DR CONGO ORDERS CITYWIDE EVACUATIONSp Allon,

by Cap Allon, May 23, 2021 in Electroverse


Nyiragongo’s deadliest eruption in history was that of 1977 (during the weak solar minimum of cycle 20) — this event went down as a VEI 1, according to historical observations, yet still managed to kill more than 600 people.

Saturday evening’s eruption looks bigger.

This was likely the volcano’s strongest eruption in recorded history.

UPTICK

Seismic and Volcanic activity has been correlated to changes in the Sun.

The recent global uptick in earthquakes and volcanic eruptions is likely attributed to the drop-off in solar activity, coronal holes, a waning magnetosphere, and the increase in Galactic Cosmic Rays penetrating silica-rich magma.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING, in line with a volcanic uptickthe great conjunction, historically low solar activitycloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among other forcings).

Both NOAA and NASA appear to agree, if you read between the lines, with NOAA saying we’re entering a ‘full-blown’ Grand Solar Minimum in the late-2020s, and NASA seeing this upcoming solar cycle (25) as “the weakest of the past 200 years”, with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.

Furthermore, we can’t ignore the slew of new scientific papers stating the immense impact The Beaufort Gyre could have on the Gulf Stream, and therefore the climate overall.

CO2 Cyclone Doomsday Flat Out Refuted: 170 Years “Absolutely No Trend” In Hurricane Intensity/Frequency

by P. Gosselin, May, 22, 2021 in NoTricksZone


The latest comes from statistics expert, Zoe Phin, who looks at the alarmists’ claim that increasing CO2 emissions are leading to more frequent and intense Atlantic hurricanes.

Alarmist claims cost nothing, and so easily made. Zoe Phin looks at whether the hurricane alarmist claim holds up.

Frequency

First Zoe looked at the (HURDAT2) data to find out if the first of the two claims (increasing frequency) is true. At first glance it would appear so.

But Zoe asks if the method of measuring the frequency really is sensible and if it maybe weren’t better to measure the amount of time the Atlantic spends in hurricane mode? To find out, Zoe plotted the hurricane hours data and the 10-year moving average:

Source: Zoe Phin.

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New Study Casts Doubt On Controversial Theory Linking Melting Arctic To Severe Winter Weather

by P. Voosen, May 13, 2021 in ClimagteChangeDispatch


Every time severe winter weather strikes the United States or Europe, reporters are fond of saying that global warming may be to blame.

The paradox goes like this: As Arctic sea ice melts and the polar atmosphere warms, the swirling winds that confine cold Arctic air weaken, letting it spill farther south.

But this idea, popularized a decade ago [and was the outlandish plotline in The Day After Tomorrow, pictured], has long faced skepticism from many atmospheric scientists, who found the proposed linkage unconvincing and saw little evidence of it in simulations of the climate.

Now, the most comprehensive modeling investigation into this link has delivered the heaviest blow yet: Even after the massive sea ice loss expected by midcentury, the polar jet stream will only weaken by tiny amounts—at most only 10% of its natural swings.

And in today’s world, the influence of ice loss on winter weather is negligible, says James Screen, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter and co-leader of the investigation, which presented its results last monthat the annual meeting of the European Geosciences Union.

Wandering polar bears are the new starving polar bears, falsely blamed on climate change

by Polar Bear Science, May 15 , 2021


Back in 2017, we famously had National Geographic falsely blaming a starving polar bear on climate change but since then we have been inundated (relatively speaking) with stories of ‘wandering’ bears sighted far from Arctic coastlines. These wandering bears are oddities to be sure but are not in any way an indicator of melting Arctic sea ice or lost habitat, as The Times (UK) has claimed in this latest example (Polar bear treks 1,500 miles south as Arctic hunting zone melts away).