by Kenneth Richard, June 8, 2017 in NoTricksZone
The conventional basic climate model applies “basic physics” to climate, estimating sensitivity to CO2. However, it has two serious architectural errors. It only allows feedbacks in response to surface warming, so it omits the driver-specific feedbacks
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by NASA, October 30, 2015
A new NASA study says that an increase in Antarctic snow accumulation that began 10,000 years ago is currently adding enough ice to the continent to outweigh the increased losses from its thinning glaciers.
The research challenges the conclusions of other studies, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2013 report, which says that Antarctica is overall losing land ice.
According to the new analysis of satellite data, the Antarctic ice sheet showed a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001. That net gain slowed to 82 billion tons of ice per year between 2003 and 2008.
by Andy May, June 8, 2017 in WUWT
As we did in the previous two posts, we will examine each proxy and reject any that have an average time step greater than 130 years or if it does not cover at least part of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Holocene Climatic Optimum (HCO). We are looking for coverage from 9000 BP to 500 BP or very close to these values. Only simple statistical techniques that are easy to explain will be used.
by Arthur Viterito, April 25, 2016 in J. of Earth Sc. & Climatic Change
Earth’s climate is a remarkably “noisy” system, driven by scores of oscillators, feedback mechanisms, and radiative forcings. Amidst all this noise, identifying a solitary input to the system (i.e., HGFA MAG4/6 seismic activity as a proxy for geothermal heat flux) that explains 62% of the variation in the earth’s surface temperature is a significant finding. Additionally, the 1997/1998 SIENA was a strong signal for subsequent global warming, and this type of seismic jump may provide valuable predictive information
by P. Gosselin, June 7, 2017 in NoTrickZone
Germany is failing horribly to reach its emissions targets, as the following chart in the report shows.
by Anthony Watts, May 30, 2017 in WUWT
From the UNIVERSITY OF SUSSEX and overheated climate science department, comes a claim that just doesn’t seem plausible, suggesting that in the future, nearly 11% of a “worst-off city” gross domestic product would be consumed by UHI boosted climate change. On the other hand, the study is by Dr. Richard Tol, who is well respected by the climate skeptic community. He does have a point about “the effects of uncontrolled urban heat islands”
Overheated cities face climate change costs at least twice as big as the rest of the world because of the ‘urban heat island’ effect, new research shows.
by Stephanie Osborn, June 7, 2017
I’ve been keeping a spreadsheet since late last summer, and here are the results, as of June 6th, 2017. (Quick and easy data source, the daily sunspot image archives from Solarham.)
This data (through March; I’ve updated it since then) was posted on Jerry Pournelle’s blog a while back, and it elicited several questions from readers, who didn’t understand the information contained therein. So here is an effort to elaborate on the data, for those of you who aren’t astronomers/ astrophysicists and don’t want to have to keep up with all this stuff.
by K. Thirumalai et al., June 6, 2017, in Nature Communication
In April 2016, southeast Asia experienced surface air temperatures (SATs) that surpassed national records, exacerbated energy consumption, disrupted agriculture and caused severe human discomfort. Here we show using observations and an ensemble of global warming simulations the combined impact of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and long-term warming on regional SAT extremes. We find a robust relationship between ENSO and southeast Asian SATs wherein virtually all April extremes occur during El Niño years.
by Andy May, June 6, 2017, in WUWT
In the last post (see here) we introduced a new Holocene temperature reconstruction for Antarctica using some of the Marcott, et al. (2013) proxies. In this post, we will present two more reconstructions, one for the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes (60°S to 30°S) and another for the tropics (30°S to 30°N)
by David Archibald, June 6, 2017 in WUWT
Solar cycle 24 has seen very low solar activity thus far, likely the lowest in 100 years. The F10.7 flux shows that over the last three and a half years the Sun has gone from solar maximum through a bounded decline to the current stage of the trail to minimum. Solar minimum is likely to be still three years away.
by Energy Live News, June , 2017 in GWPF
The EU’s total greenhouse gas emissions increased in 2015 for the first time since 2010.
According to new data published by the European Environment Agency (EEA), the 0.5% increase happened largely due to increasing demand for transport – better fuel efficiency in the sector was not enough to offset this.
Complete .pdf available here
by Arnd Henze, June 3, 2017 in GWPF
A statement submitted to the ARD Capital Studio, the “Berliner Kreis (Berlin Circle)”, which includes numerous federal and communal politicians of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), calls for an end to “moral blackmail” by climate research and a “farewell to unilateral German CO2 targets.”
on Fox News, in Climate Change Dispatch , June 5, 2017
Former Vice President Al Gore was forced to admit on Sunday that the UN Paris climate accord was a symbolic effort and merely “sends a very powerful signal.” Gore once again spun a series of climate falsehoods in just a few short sound bites
by Clives James, The Australian in GWPF, June 6, 2017
Actually, a more illustrative starting point for the theme of the permanently imminent climatic apocalypse might be taken as August 3, 1971, when The Sydney Morning Herald announced that the Great Barrier Reef would be dead in six months.
After six months the reef had not died, but it has been going to die almost as soon as that ever since, making it a strangely durable emblem for all those who have wedded themselves to the notion of climate catastrophe.
by Paul Homewood, June 5, 2017
Arctic sea ice extent continues to run well above the level of the last two years.
Much more significantly though, the average extent for the whole of May was the highest since 2013, and was also higher than 2004 and 2006.
by Bjorn Lomborg, June 2017
Even if we assume that these promises would be extended for another 70 years, there is still little impact: if every nation fulfills every promise by 2030, and continues to fulfill these promises faithfully until the end of the century, and there is no ‘CO₂ leakage’ to non-committed nations, the entirety of the Paris promises will reduce temperature rises by just 0.17°C (0.306°F) by 2100.
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The peer-reviewed paper is published in the upcoming issue of Global Policy journal (November 2015). You can access the article online here.
by P. Gosselin, May 28, 2017
In a joint US-German study, seven scientists recently tried to discredit the sun’s impact on climate. On April 19, 2017, Guoyong Wen and colleagues published a modeling study in the Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate, which suggested a maximum solar-dependent share of 0.1°C on the temperature development over the past 400 years. Here the scientists relied on the old, well-known trick of using the Little Ice Age as the starting.
by Drieu Godefridi et al., 5 juin 2017
Prospère de nos jours le climatisme est sans conteste le plus formidable dispositif idéologique de ce début de XXIe siècle. Et si on posait la question de son financement et de sa réalité scientifique ?
by Tony Heller, June 3, 2017
Summer is here, and climate alarmists are about to bombard us with claims that global warming is going to burn us up. The data shows the exact opposite. There are 693 USHCN stations which were active in both 1920 and 2016. I ran statistics on this stable group of stations.
The average summer maximum temperature in the US is down about one degree since the 1920’s.
by Roy Spencer, June2, 2017
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for May 2017 was +0.45 deg. C, up from the April 2017 value of +0.27 deg. C
by Jennifer Marohasy, June3, 2017
Important new book coming out …
Contributors to Climate Change: The Facts 2017 do not conform to a unitary view. As I explain in the book’s introduction:
“An advantage of my approach in the compiling of the chapters for this book – an approach where there has been no real attempt to put everything into neat boxes – is that there are many surprises. I am referring to the snippets of apparently anomalous information scattered through the chapters. These can, hopefully, one day, be reconciled. As this occurs, we may begin to see the emergence of a coherent theory of climate – where output from computer-simulation models bears some resemblance to real-world measurements that have not first been ‘homogenised’.
by Jo Moreau, Belgotopia, June 2, 2017
“Ceux qui me font l’honneur (et le plaisir) de suivre ma page Facebook “belgotopia” suivent ma rubrique : “Dans l’hilarante série, les délires climatiques” dans laquelle je distille à doses homéopathiques toutes les épouvantables conséquences du réchauffement climatique. Celles-ci sont publiées soit dans des médias, soit dans des revues scientifiques dont on ne peut mettre le sérieux en doute.
Etant arrivé au centième, j’en fais ici une compilation. J’ en ai encore un nombre considérable en réserve !”
by Andy May, June1, 2017
The Marcott, et al. 2013 worldwide reconstruction has its problems, but many of the proxies used in the reconstruction are quite good and very usable.
The Antarctic reconstruction created here is comparable to previous temperature reconstructions, especially those focusing on eastern Antarctica. It shows two climatic optima, one from 11500 BP to 9000 BP and another from 6000 BP to 3000 BP. In eastern Antarctica, using our proxies, the later optimum is warmer. But, in other areas the earlier optimum is warmer, however, the difference is small
by Kenneth Richard, May 22, 2017
It has long been established in the peer-reviewed scientific literature that naturally-driven fluctuations in the Earth’s surface temperature preceded the rise and fall of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations for at least the last 800,000 years.
by Tony Phillips, November 19, 2016
The sun has looked remarkably blank lately, with few dark cores interrupting the featureless solar disk. This is a sign that Solar Minimum is coming. Indeed, sunspot counts have just reached their lowest level since 2011.