by Judith Curry, November 24, 2018 in ClimateEtc.
In considering ‘worst case’ climate change impacts, we first need to assess the realistic worst case for global carbon emissions.
The recently published U.S. National Climate Assessment shows that we are currently on track for RCP8.5.
In particular, there is a fairly large number of papers arguing that assumptions about coal are incorrect: (list of papers courtesy of LK).
- The first major study questioning the actual extent of coal reserves: “The Peak in U.S. Coal Production“ by Gregson Vaux, 27 May 2004
- More evidence that reserves are overstated: “Coal Of The Future (Supply Prospects for Thermal Coal by 2030-2050)“ by Energy Edge Limited, Prepared for the Institute for Energy of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, February 2007
- More evidence that reserves are overstated: “Coal: Resources and Future Production“ by Energy Watch Group, March 2007 (47 pages,)
- The major study showing that coal reserves are overstated: “Coal: Research and Development to Support National Energy Policy“ by the National Academies, June 2007
- “Why do climate change scenarios return to coal?” by Justin Ritchie and Hadi Dowlatabadi in Energy, 1 December 2017.