All around the world the climate druids are at work.
Show me the error bars
Once upon a time a scientist talked about thirty year trends and anachronistic things like “confidence intervals”. Now, thanks to the discovery of Unscience, any noisy, random short data is fair game to be declared undeniable climate change. Periods of flooding also qualify, as do periods of nice weather, though strangely no one mentions those. Where are the headlines? If climate change caused drought on the East Coast of Australia, it’s also causing average rain and good crops in Western Australia.
In terms of scientific data analysis we don’t get that many droughts or six-day-August-heatwaves to analyze. They’re complex phenomena caused by multiple factors and we only have short records. This makes them ideal to be oversold to hapless folk as a “sign” of climate change.
Somebody said economists try to predict the tide by measuring one wave. This puts them in the same league as climate scientists trying to predict the climate by measuring one variable, CO2. It is no surprise that an amalgam of the two, climate and economics, produces even worse results, but that is what happened early in the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) deception.
S’exprimer, sans recul, sur une canicule localisée à l’échelle du climat mondial constitue une erreur déontologique.
Il est regrettable que certains utilisent la vague de chaleur actuelle — qui au demeurant n’a rien d’anormal — afin de faire de nouveau miroiter la catastrophe climatique annoncée depuis 1992.
by P. Homewood, August 7, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
Climate change: ‘Hothouse Earth’ risks even if CO2 emissions slashed
It may sound like the title of a low budget sci-fi movie, but for planetary scientists, “Hothouse Earth” is a deadly serious concept.
Researchers believe we could soon cross a threshold leading to boiling hot temperatures and towering seas in the centuries to come.
Even if countries succeed in meeting their CO2 targets, we could still lurch on to this “irreversible pathway”.
Their study shows it could happen if global temperatures rise by 2C.
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The utterly corrupt body of climate science has been getting ever more desperate to scare people about climate change and thereby submit to their radical anti capitalist agenda.
People are not falling for it, so we are now being subjected to ever more absurd announcements like this.
Quelle aubaine pour les doctrinaires du développement durable ! Au moment de leur jour du dépassement il fait chaud, très chaud. Évidement ni l’écologisteHulot, ni France 2, ni France 24, ni la RTBF ni la ribambelle de médias impréparés ne pouvaient rater pareille occasion pour lier les deux évènements et nous culpabiliser pour introduire le contrôle de tous les détails de nos vies.
Ce premier août était donc le jour où, d’après Global Footprint Network (GFN), qui possède l’argent pour employer des dizaines de chercheurs souvent financés par les deniers publics, nous vivons désormais à crédit. À sa suite, toutes les ONG environnementales (ONGE) et nombre de politiciens se font les mégaphones de cette supercherie qui ne repose sur aucune base scientifique. Le jour du dépassement global (earth overshooting day) prétend être un indicateur dont l’objectif est de conscientiser et responsabiliser les pays développés à la notion d’empreinte écologique. Bien entendu, à part les Européens endoctrinés par les ONGE, cette théorie n’a guère d’écho dans le reste du monde.
Despite all the hysterical “heat wave” and drought reports being put out to the public by the media, the Northern Hemisphere as a whole is in fact not at all that much warmer than the mean since 2000.
According to Dr. Ryan Maue, northern hemisphere temperature anomaly was zero on July 30 and the northern hemisphere land surface anomaly was actually -0.20°C.
It has been for northern Europe a hot summer. Is it climate change as the media would like to have us believe? Or, is it something much simpler? For example, ocean patterns. Off the coast of Africa, water was coldest in the entire record back to 1950. A temperature change in one place of the oceans, means a change elsewhere also.
The UK July ranked 3rd warmest since 1950 in the very long term (starting 1659) temperature data-base from Central England.
SPOTLIGHT: The iconic magazine is now a purveyor of propaganda.
BIG PICTURE: On her PolarBearScience.com blog last week, zoologist Susan Crockford called our attention to a startling admission over at National Geographic. It acknowledges publishing fake news. Or, as it more delicately puts it, we “went too far in drawing a definitive connection between climate change and a particular starving polar bear.”
An “Editor’s Note” explains the magazine added a wholly misleading caption to a video of an emaciated polar bear filmed last August. When it published this video on its website in December, National Geographic declared: “This is what climate change looks like.”
Actually, this is what dishonesty looks like. Neither the magazine nor the person who did the filming knew anything about that bear. It might have been stricken with disease. It might have sustained an injury that impeded its ability to hunt. As the Editor’s Note now admits: “there is no way to know for certain why this bear was on the verge of death.”
During 2017, there were 150 graphs from 122 scientific papers published in peer-reviewed journals indicating modern temperatures are not unprecedented, unusual, or hockey-stick-shaped — nor do they fall outside the range of natural variability. We are a little over halfway through 2018 and already 108 graphs from 89 scientific papers undermine claims that modern era warming is climatically unusual.
For the sake of brevity, just 13 (15%) of the 89 new papers are displayed below.
The rest of the non-hockey-stick scientific papers and graphs published thus far in 2018 can be viewed by clicking the link below.
The L. A. Times published a Ca. climate alarmist wildfire story falsely claiming that the states most recent wildfires are result of “heat like the state has never seen”.
As usual with climate fear articles like this one in the L. A. Times the scientific reality present a far different picture. The latest scientific study completed by the Royal Society concludes that global wildfires are in decline.
Climatologists trying to predict global warming forgot the sunshine in their sums. After correction of this startling error of physics, global warming will not be 2 to 4.5 K per CO2doubling, as climate models imagine. It will be a small, slow, harmless and net-beneficial 1.17 K.
What’s wrong with comparing Super Storm Sandy’s devastation with projected sea level rise? They are two different things! One is a storm surge, the other an incremental change in either sea level or land subsidence (sinking) or both. For one we can evacuate the immediate area where landfall is forecast to hit in order to save lives. For the other, we have the time to build dikes and barriers like those in England and Holland, or flood-proof, or move. Super Storm Sandy is not unprecedented, and neither are extremely stormy and erratic periods of climate with catastrophic storms, like the Grote Mandrenke — The Great Drowning of Men — of the Little Ice Age. Let me set some perspective.
Journalists should do their job. They should check the most pertinent facts for themselves — in this case: Is sea level really rising 7-10 mm/yr in the Solomons?
Finding out that it hasn’t and isn’t makes a much more interesting story than “yet-another-alarmist-talking-point”.
Do note that while coral atolls are generally self-regenerating, sand spits/sand bars are not — they are at the mercy of the currents and waves.
by Tony Heller, July 25, 2018 in TheDeplorableClimateScienceBlog
In 1972, forty-two “top European and American investigators” predicted a rapidly approaching new ice age – based on an increase in snow and ice cover from 1967-1972.
The technique employed ….. depends on the averaging of information from standard and ‘infra-red satellite weather pictures.
The temperature of the last 100 years was also the topic of a new publication by Folland et al. 2018. The authors are very much at home in the camp of the IPCC and had to admit that there have been phases of cooling, stagnating or even slow warming: 1896 – 1910, 1941 – 1975, and 1998 – 2013.
Climate models struggle with this because CO2 is climbing steadily. So why does climate warming stall under these conditions? Folland and his colleagues examined the models and are convinced that despite the small problems, the models function perfectly well and thus no other climate factors need to be accounted for.
In 1940s it was a bit too warm and the models were unable to reproduce this. Given, the authors say. Greenhouse gases have been responsible for almost all the warming of the last 125 years.
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Now isn’t it a bit odd that the authors made absolutely no mention of the ocean cycles in the abstract? As our regular readers know, the ocean cycles run surprisingly synchronous with the fluctuations in global temperatures, i.e. the key factors here are the AMO and PDO.
PDO ocean cycle and its fluctuations in the global temperature development. Source: Book ‘Die kalte Sonne‘.
Sea level has remained virtually at the present level over the last 200 years
In the last 50-70 years sea level has remained perfectly stable in Fiji
This stability is indicated by the growth of corals (stopped to grow vertically, and forced to grow laterally into microatolls) – and corals do not lie
We have (with references at the end)
o Studied your tide gauge records – Mörner & Matlack-Kelin, 2017a
o Studied sites of coastal erosion – Mörner & Matlack-Klein, 2017b
o Documented sea level change during the last 500 years in great details –
Mörner & Matlakc.Kelin, 2917c
o Noted the close similarity to similar records in nations like the Maldives,
Bangladesh and India – Mörner, 2017
o We have presented our data at conferences in Rome (4th WCCC, October 19-21, 2017) and Düsseldorf (11th EIKE, November 9-10, 2017) – see: Clutz, 2017 and Tallbloke’s Talkshop, 2017)
No matter how hard climate-catastrophe obsessed alarmists attempt to beat out a little doom from the data, their results still fall far way short of their projections. Moreover, the modest warming the planet has seen over the recent decades is tied more to natural cycles.
by P. Homewood, July 22, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
Last week, the BBC seriously misled the public about so-called “heat records”, as I noted in this post here.
In particular the BBC made a song and dance about Southern California, even though the LA records were seriously compromised by siting in car parks or next to air conditioning exhaust vents.
But how does the recent Californian heatwave really compare with historical weather?
Fairmont is a rural USHCN station, just 110 km north of LA, and with a long term record dating back to 1922. (There is some data going back to 1909 as well):
I know there are many articles on this website about sea level, none better than the recent one by David Middleton that speaks about “More nonsense about sea level rise.” I thought his article would make the continuance of this article unnecessary. It doesn’t because it is written for the WUWT readers. Unfortunately, too many of them like most of the public, scientists, and media don’t know what is involved in creating the net result that is sea level. I think because they don’t know, that it is time for something more basic as a citizen’s template for fighting city hall. Citizens of Honolulu are the most recent victims of this as the Mayor of Honolulu directs the City to prepare for a 3-foot sea level rise in some undetermined time period. It was reinforced during a recent radio interview when a caller asked about it because his city was planning to spend millions on structures to anticipate sea level rise. I provided a few facts about changes in sea level, scientifically called eustasy, and all the other mechanisms that could explain that change.
While NBC News might think that 68,000 page views per month is impressive, in comparison to our regular daily traffic on WUWT, it pales in comparison. For example, here is a screencap from my WordPress dashboard from yesterday, July 16th, which was a fairly typical summer day for WUWT. Note that it shows 92,467 page views in one day.
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What’s most interesting is that while there’s been a slow, almost imperceptible increase in the phrase “climate change”, the search phrase “global warming” is getting far less use than it did when data was first collected, back in 2004. Right now, both “climate change”, and “global warming” have low interests.
The Climategate emails expose to our view a world that was previously hidden from virtually everyone.
This formerly hidden world was made up of a very few players. But they controlled those critical Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) processes involv- ing the temperature records from the past, and the official interpretation of cur- rent temperature data. They exerted previously unrecognized influence on the “peer review” process for papers seeking publication in the officially recognised climate science literature from which the IPCC was supposed to rely exclusively in order to draw its conclusions.
by A. Alam Khan, February17, 2018 in GeoScienceFrontiers
Highlights
• Global warming and polar ice-melt not contribute to sea level rise.
• Melting of huge volume of floating sea-ice around polar region cool ocean-water preventing thermal expansion.
• Polar ice melting re-occupy same volume of the displaced water causing no sea level rise.
• Gravitational attraction of the earth plays a dominant role against sea level rise.
• Melting of land ice in the polar region allow crust to rebound elastically for isostatic balancing through uplift should cause sea level to drop relatively.
A new German paper assesses wind energy in Europe . The results are devastating. It concludes that wind energy requires almost 100% backup and that the more capacity that gets installed, the greater the volatility.
The paper appearing at the VGB, authored by Thomas Linnemann and Guido Vallana, finds that “the total wind fleet output of 18 European countries extending over several thousand kilometers in north-south and east-west direction is highly volatile and exhibits a strong intermittent character.”
In other words the power supply across the European grid fluctuates wildly and thus cannot work well. The paper’s abstract continues: …
La géologie, une science plus que passionnante … et diverse
