Archives par mot-clé : Fun?/Discussion

UN CLIMATE TALKS: THE ANNUAL RITUAL

by GWPF, September 4, 2018


These ‘Conferences of the Parties’, or COPs as they are usually termed, involve all of the members of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and take place towards the end of the year. This year will see the 24th COP take place in Katowice, Poland.

Over the years the COPs have developed a style all of their own. Indeed, some observers have even gone as far as to suggest that each year sees less and less by way of meaningful activity, and more and more liturgy and ritual.

They may just have a point as our historical review reveals.

The Great Debate Part D – Summary

by Andy May, September 18, 2018  WUWT


In Part A of the Great Debate series (see here) we discussed Dr. David Karoly’s and Dr. William Happer’s arguments regarding how unusual recent global warming is and how we know the recent observed increase in CO2 is due to human activities. In Part B we examined their thoughts on the amount of warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions and the accuracy of the calculation. In Part C we discussed the dangers of global warming, the calculation of the vital value of ECS (the equilibrium climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2), and discuss the need to do something about climate change. In this final part of the series I will summarize the debate and provide my thoughts.

The Great Climate Change Debate: William Happer v. David Karoly, Part C

by Andy May, September 3, 2018, in WUWT


In Part A of the Great Debate series (see here) we discussed Dr. David Karoly’s and Dr. William Happer’s arguments regarding how unusual recent global warming is and how we know the recent observed increase in CO2 is due to human activities. In Part B we examined their thoughts on questions three and four. Number 3 is “How do we know that the increase in CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have caused most of the recent global warming?” Number 4 is “Climate models have been used to compute the amount of warming caused by human activities, how accurate are they?”

For an introduction to the debate and links to the original documents see Part A. In Part C we will examine the predictions that global warming and more CO2 are dangerous and that we (as a global society) need to do something about it.

The Great Climate Change Debate: William Happer v. David Karoly, Part B

by Andy May, September 2, 2018 in WUWT


In Part A of the Great Debate series (see here) we discussed Dr. David Karoly’s and Dr. William Happer’s arguments regarding how unusual the recent global warming is and how we know the recent observed increase in CO2 is due to human activities. In Part B we will examine their thoughts on questions three and four.

3. How do we know that the increase in CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have caused most of the recent global warming?

4. Climate models have been used to compute the amount of warming caused by human activities, how accurate are they?

For an introduction to the debate and links to the original documents see Part A.

Aux personnes intéressées par les affaires du climat

by JC Dupont, 3 septembre 2018


Quelques commentaires sur quelques commentaires

La Lettre d’information 7 sort légèrement du cadre prévu à l’origine pour ces Lettres. Elle se rapporte à des commentaires qu’elles ont suscités et qui sont parus dansL’1Dex. L’1Dex est un média alternatif valaisan, dont le motto est « Pour un Valais

critique et libertaire ». Grâce au libéralisme de son rédacteur en chef, Me Stéphane Riand, et de son équipe dirigeante, les voix discordantes, les pensées de contre-courant, les points de vue tenus pour hérétiques, tout ce qui se heurte aux interdits des presses bien-pensantes, peuvent se faire entendre. De l’air frais sur la « Panurgie ». C’est ainsi que mes Lettres d’information ont connu une diffusion inespérée. L’1Dex offre aussi à ses lecteurs la possibilité de réagir avec des commentaires, qui sont le plus souvent anonymes. L’ignorance générale où l’on est des questions relatives au climat, ajoutée à l’illusion qu’un consensus se serait établi parmi les scientifiques, comme on le laisse entendre dans les milieux de la climatologie officielle, expliquent la cacophonie et la variété ébouriffante de certains de ces commentaires. Pour des raisons que j’expose plus loin, je ne m’y suis guère arrêté jusqu’ici. De par le contexte même, le contenu de la présente Lettre est plus local. Néanmoins, on passe à la généralité par des extrapolations simples.

….

The perils of ‘near-tabloid science’

by Judith Curry, July 22, 2018 in ClimateEtc.


A remarkable essay by  esteemed oceanographer Carl Wunsch.

While doing a literature survey for my paper on Climate Uncertainty and Risk, I came across a remarkable paper published in 2010 by MIT oceanographer Carl Wunsch, entitled Towards Understanding the Paleocean.

The paper is remarkable for several reasons — not only  that it was published but that the paper was apparently invited by journal editor.

The paper is well worth reading in its entirety, for a fascinating perspective on paleo-oceanography and paleoclimatology.  Here I provide excerpts of relevance to the sociology of climate science:

 

‘WE WILL NOT DEBATE’ – HOW SCIENCE BECOMES DOGMA

by David Whitehouse,  August 30, 2018 in GWPF


Science is of course a human enterprise full of the imperfections of humanity. It’s more competitive than it’s ever been and there are more scientists than ever. So many want to communicate their science and this is wonderful. But the media, especially social media, can bring out a nasty streak in some especially when they take the moral high ground: ‘Some people should not be debated.’ ‘We are too right to be challenged.’ ‘Excommunicate!’

The Great Climate Change Debate: William Happer v. David Karoly, Part A

by Andy May, September1 2018 in WUWT


February 15, 2016 was the beginning of an in-depth debate on man-made climate change between two well-known experts in the field, Dr. William Happer and Dr. David Karoly, hosted by TheBestSchools.org. Both have been heavily involved in atmospheric research since the 1980s, but they have landed on opposite sides of the debate.

  1. Is recent global warming unusual?

  2. How do we know the excess CO2, and other greenhouse gases, are from human activities?

  3. How do we know that the increase in CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have caused most of the recent global warming?

  4. Climate models have been used to compute the amount of warming caused by human activities, how accurate are they?

  5. How do we know global warming and more CO2 will have substantial adverse impacts on humans and the planet?

  6. Should anything be done to combat global warming?

@UCSUSA “Union of Concerned Scientists” doesn’t understand what “unprecedented” means when used with the word “warming”

by Anthony Watts, August 30, 2018 in WUWT


Earth’s surface has undergone unprecedented warming over the last century, and especially in this century.

Every single year since 1977 has been warmer than the 20th century average, with 16 of the 17 warmest years on record occurring since 2001, and 2016 being the warmest year on recorded history. A study from 2016 found that without the emissions from burning coal and oil, there is very little likelihood that 13 out of the 15 warmest years on record would all have happened.

Source: https://www.ucsusa.org/global-warming/science-and-impacts/science/human-contribution-to-gw-faq.html


First a definition of the word “unprecedented”:

Note that “in this century” isn’t part of the definition. it says “never done or known before”

So in that spirit, here’s some other “unprecedented” warming in Earth’s history, via the Vostok Ice Core dataset:

New book shreds the “climate to extreme weather” link

by  Anthony Watts, August 30, 2018 in WUWT


After nearly every hurricane, heatwave, drought, or other extreme weather event, commentators rush to link the disaster with climate change. But what does the science say?

In this fully revised and updated edition of Disasters & Climate Change, renowned political scientist Roger Pielke Jr. takes a close look at the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the underlying scientific research, and the climate data to give you the latest science on how climate change is related to extreme weather.

What he finds may surprise you and raise questions about the role of science in political debates.

 

What is warming the Earth?

by Javier, August 29, 2018 in WUWT


A no-assumptions look at the global warming evidence helps clarify the possibilities.

The planet’s surface has been warming since the depths of the Little Ice Age, and particularly since ~ 1850 AD. The surface temperature record, however incomplete or uncertain, reflects this warming. Hypotheses about why the warming is taking place can be grouped into three general categories:

  1. The energy input is increasing. This is the basis of the variable solar output hypothesis.
  2. The energy output is decreasing. This is the basis of the greenhouse gases hypothesis.
  3. The transfer of heat within the system is changing. This is the basis of some hypotheses for a reduced vertical exchange in the ocean, or for changes in the oceanic currents that redistribute the heat.

A combination of these categories cannot be ruled out.

Whatever causes the temperature change must necessarily affect its rate of change, the velocity at which temperature changes over time, measured in °C/decade. A velocity that varies continuously and can be positive (warming) or negative (cooling).

 

Figure 1. 9-year global surface temperature rate of change (4-year averaged) in °C/decade. The Pause is indicated by the khaki box. Source: Met Office UK, HadCRUT 4.

A Second Letter to the Geological Society

by Andy May, August 29, 2018 in WUWT


In June of this year, Howard Dewhirst, a fellow of The Geological Society (London), wrote a letter to the President of the Society voicing the concern of 33 current and former fellows of the society, as well as other concerned geoscientists, that the Society’s position on climate change is outdated and one-sided. As of this writing, receipt of the letter has been acknowledged, but no reply has been received. Given the long period of time, Howard has sent a second letter to the Society, it is reproduced below.

Dear President

We understand that the council is reviewing the The Geological Society’s 2010 and 2013 position papers on climate change which was the subject of the letter we wrote to the society in early June. We also understand that despite the clear interest amongst Fellows – and other scientists, that the society will not be publishing further letters until the new position paper has been agreed. If true, we (the contributors to the first letter) think this is unfortunate, as now would be the very time to solicit informed opinion from Fellows and others as there clearly is not a consensus. …

Warmists Censor CO2-Climate Debate By Refusing To Publish Author’s Response To Attacks

by K. Richard, August 27, 2018 in ClimateChangeDispatch


A 2017 peer-reviewed paper authored by physicist Dr. Hermann Harde drew considerable response upon its publication in the journal Global and Planetary Change.

Harde’s conclusion that less than 15% of the increase in CO2 concentration since the 19th century could be attributed to anthropogenic emissions was deemed unacceptable by gatekeepers of the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) viewpoint.

A critical reply to the paper was consequently published, but it included assumptive errors and misrepresentations of the original points …

Why I Don’t Deny: Confessions of a Climate Skeptic — Part 2

by Kip Hansen, August 27, 2018 in WUWT


Note:  Please read Part 1 before reading this — this is a continuation of that essay (a rather long continuation….).

Readers will have heard the line “multiple lines of evidence” attached to the attribution of anthropogenic causes.  However, that phrase is used only once in AR5 SPM as “Multiple lines of evidence indicate a strong, consistent, almost linear relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and projected global temperature change to the year 2100….”  I’m sure I don’t need to point out that there is never ever evidence about the future…..They do not claim in the Summary for Policy Makers that there are multiple lines of evidence for the attribution statement that apply to the past-to-present.

 

Why I Don’t Deny: Confessions of a Climate Skeptic — Part 1

by Kip Hansen, August 25, 2018 in WUWT


I have often been asked “Why do you deny climate change?”  I am always stumped by the question.  It is rather like being asked “Why do you torture innocent animals?”  The questioner is not merely asking for information, they are always making an accusation — an accusation that they consider very serious and a threat to themselves and others.

The reason it stumps me is that, as you have guessed already, I do not deny climate change (and I do not torture innocent animals — nor even guilty ones).  And there is nothing about me or my behavior, present or past, that I am aware of, that would lead any reasonable person to think such a thing of me.

I am thoroughly guilty though of being very skeptical of what is generally referred to as the Climate Consensus — usually said to be represented by the latest reports and policy recommendations put out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its supporters; political, ideological and scientific.  I suppose it is this that leads to the false accusation of “denying climate change”.

And there is the crux of the matter — it is something in the mind of the accuser, not any action of the accused, which leads to the false accusation.

Arctic Summer Sea Ice Growth Trend Extends Another Year …Greenland Summer One Of Coldest In 30 Years!

by P. Gosselin, August 24, 2018 in NoTricksZone


As the Arctic summer ice melt approaches its peak, we can say with high certainty that this year’s ice melt will extend the trend of a rebounding Arctic ice mass by another year.

Arctic summer sea ice now growing 12 years

Our Japanese skeptic blogger and good friend Kirye reports using the data from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) that peak summer Arctic sea ice volume upward growth trend has been extended yet another year – now 12 years.

Chart by Kirye. Data source: Danish Meteorology Institute (DMI).

NASA alarmism headline: ‘A World On Fire’

by Anthony Watts, August 23, 2018 in WUWT


The world is on fire. Or so it appears in this image from NASA’s Worldview. The red points overlaid on the image designate those areas that by using thermal bands detect actively burning fires. Africa seems to have the most concentrated fires. This could be due to the fact that these are most likely agricultural fires. The location, widespread nature, and number of fires suggest that these fires were deliberately set to manage land. Farmers often use fire to return nutrients to the soil and to clear the ground of unwanted plants. While fire helps enhance crops and grasses for pasture, the fires also produce smoke that degrades air quality.

Clean Energy Investment Trends, 2Q 2018

by BloombergNRF, July 9, 2018


Wind

Electricity generation using wind turbines. Included in this sector, are players across the entire value chain of both onshore and offshore developments. From manufacturers of turbines, components and subassemblies to developers, generators, utilities and engineering firm.

Solar

All technologies which capture energy directly from the sun. These include production of electricity using semiconductor-based photovoltaic (pv) materials, use of concentrated sunlight to heat fluids that drive power generation equipment (solar thermal), and passive methods which use sunlight to heat water. Whilst company level investment of passive methods is recorded, investment in passive projects is not.

Biofuels

Liquid transportation fuels including biodiesel and bioethanol. These can be derived from a range of biomass sources, including sugar cane, rape seed, soybean oil or non-food cellulosic feedstock. Our database excludes producers of base biomass, but includes suppliers of everything from the processing technologies and equipment, through the logistics of distribution, to manufacturers of energy systems which are specially adapted for the use of biofuels and products, and the services on which they depend.

Biomass & waste

Electricity and/or heat produced with bio-based feedstocks, typically through incineration but also through more advanced processes like gasification or anaerobic digestion. This sector also includes waste-to-energy which includes energy produced through landfill gas projects and incineration of municipal and industrial waste.

Energy smart technologies

This sector covers technologies like digital energy, smart grids, power storage, hydrogen and fuel cells, advanced transportation and energy efficiency on both the demand and supply side.

Other renewables

Includes small hydro – hydro projects with capacities smaller or equal to 50MW; geothermal – extraction of useful power from heat stored in the earth; marine – the extraction of tidal, wave and thermal energy from the ocean.

RSS Suspected Of “Serious Data Doping”, German Scientists Say…”Values Fudged To Fit Models”!

by  Dr. S. Lüning and Prof. F. Vahrenholt, August 19, 2018 in NoTricksZone


Temperatures can be measured from the ground and from satellites. Satellite data have two versions, UAH and RSS. The version of UAH (University of Alabama, Huntsville) makes a solid impression. The RSS version shows larger deviations and suggests a stronger warming.

How come?

Doping the data

Both datasets surely get their data from similar satellites. The explanation lies in a “post-processing” of the measured values ​​by the RSS group. In the chart below you can see the old version in red.

Global temperature based on RSS satellite measurements. From Climate4You Newsletter June 2018.

Weather and Climate in the Real World

by Tim Ball, August 18, 2018 in WUWT


All the trillions of dollars spent on AGW have not improved forecasting one bit. Instead, it diverted money that could have helped those large, primary sectors of society and economy that need better and more appropriate information. It is time to close all government weather offices or at least reduce their function to data collection determined by the end users.

Drought Proofing a Dry Continent

by Viv Forbes, August 16, 2018 in WUWT


Sensible drought-proofing policies for Australia are simple –

  1. Stop wasting water
  2. Build more dams, pipelines and pumps
  3. Build power stations capable of delivering cheap reliable electricity for pumping water and energising desalination plants.

To view this whole article plus images click:
http://carbon-sense.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/build-more-dams.pdf

Why does climate sensitivity increase over time in models? A look at two possibilities

by A. Zaragoza Comendador, August 16, 2018 in WUWT


Note: if the terms used in this article seem confusing, check out the previous one.

Introduction

It’s well known that climate models show increasing sensitivity over time: for a given forcing, the true long-term temperature increase (ECS) is higher than what you’d estimate if you simply extrapolated from the past (ECS_hist). In other words, the ECS-to-ECS_hist ratio is above 1. This article tries to work out why climate models behave like that; that is to say, the variable I’m trying to explain is the ECS-to-ECS_hist ratio.

Now, there’s probably too many hyphens and underscores in the text. So it will be more readable if I clarify that, every time I talk simply about ‘correlation’, I mean the correlation of thing X with the ECS-to-ECS_hist ratio. If other kind of correlation is mentioned, I’ll say so explicitly.

Nature Unbound IX – 21st Century Climate Change

by Javier, June 28, 2018


A conservative outlook on 21st century climate change

Summary: For the past decade anthropogenic emissions have slowed down, and continuation of current trends suggests a peak in emissions by 2050. Atmospheric CO2levels should reach 500 ppm but might stabilize soon afterwards, as sinks increase their CO2uptake. Solar activity is expected to continue increasing after the present minimum, as the millennial cycle works its way towards a late 21st century peak. The reduction in the rate of warming might continue until ~ 2035 followed by renewed warming, and temperature stabilization at about +1.5°C above pre-industrial. The pause in summer Arctic sea ice melting might also continue until ~ 2035. Renewed melting is probable afterwards, but it is unlikely that Arctic summers will become consistently ice free even by 2100.

Spiegel Science Journalist Takes Climate Heat-Hysteria Head On: “Speculation”…”Time For A Cool Examination”

by A. Bojanowski, August 4, 2018 in NoTricksZone/Der Spiegel


Geology major, science journalist Axel Bojanowski just penned a commentary at Spiegel Online on the recent hot weather hype we witnessed in the wake of Europe’s warm and unusually dry summer.

The title of his commentary: “Overheated – Forest Fires, Drought, Heat – Has The Climate Catastrophe Already Arrived? Time For A Cool Examination.”

See also here

The rise of Climate superstition: Droughts, heatwaves, random noise is “proof” of anything you like

by JoNova, August 7, 2018


All around the world the climate druids are at work.

Show me the error bars

Once upon a time a scientist talked about thirty year trends and anachronistic things like “confidence intervals”. Now, thanks to the discovery of Unscience, any noisy, random short data is fair game to be declared undeniable climate change. Periods of flooding also qualify, as do periods of nice weather, though strangely no one mentions those. Where are the headlines? If climate change caused drought on the East Coast of Australia, it’s also causing average rain and good crops in Western Australia.

In terms of scientific data analysis we don’t get that many droughts or six-day-August-heatwaves to analyze. They’re complex phenomena caused by multiple factors and we only have short records. This makes them ideal to be oversold to hapless folk as a “sign” of climate change.

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