Archives par mot-clé : Fun?/Discussion

Taking The Economist to Task for Unfounded Climate Catastrophe Fearmongering

by   Dr. John D. Harper, FGSA,FGAC, PGeol., former director of the Geological Survey of Canada © May 2017


I have recently been asked to comment on three articles published in The Economist. My background for such a response is as a Professor of Petroleum Geology and Sedimentology (ret.), a former Director-Energy for the Geological Survey of Canada, a former researcher in industry, and as an academic researcher on sea level changes and climate documentation through geologic time, Natural Resources of the Future and a couple of decades of studies in the Arctic.

1) Skating on thin ice: The thawing Arctic threatens an environmental catastrophe. Apr 27, 2017

2) The Arctic as it is known today is almost certainly gone. April 29, 2017

3) Thaw point: As the Arctic melts the world’s weather suffers. April 29, 2017

EU trend of CO2 reduction seems to have stopped

by Peter Teffer, May 4, 2017 in euobserver


The EU’s statistical agency Eurostat announced Thursday (4 May) that CO2 emissions resulting from the EU’s energy use have “slightly decreased” in 2016, compared to the year before.

But Eurostat’s press release did not mention that the small decrease has not made up for the small increase in CO2 emissions the year before, and that more CO2 was emitted in 2016 than in 2014.

A propos de l’article « Réchauffement climatique » paru dans « Science … & pseudo-sciences »

by Jean-Claude Pont, c/o Uskek, 3 mai 2017


Jean-Claude Pont écrit au rédacteur en chef de « Science … & pseudo-sciences », à propos de l’article « réchauffement climatique » paru dans le numéro 317 de la revue. Il entend rectifier ce qu’il tient pour « des manquements importants, parfois des ambiguïtés, voulues ou inconscientes ».

Thoughts on the Public Discourse over Climate Change

by MIT Prof. Richard Lindzen, April 25, 2017

Richard Lindzen is the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Emeritus at Massachusetts Institute of Technology.


For over 30 years, I have been giving talks on the science of climate change. When, however, I speak to a non-expert audience, and attempt to explain such matters as climate sensitivity, the relation of global mean temperature anomaly to extreme weather, that warming has decreased profoundly for the past 18 years, etc., it is obvious that the audience’s eyes are glazing over.


 

How inconstant are climate feedbacks – and does it matter?

by Nic Lewis, April 18, 2017


There is as yet no observational evidence that climate sensitivity increases with time in the real climate system – although this cannot be ruled out – nor is it fully understood why it increases in most AOGCMs. In any event, even if real-world climate sensitivity does increase with time, in the longer run other factors that are not reflected in ECS, such as melting ice sheets, are probably more important. Therefore, while time-varying climate sensitivity is of considerable interest from a theoretical point of view, for practical purposes its influence is likely to be very modest.

Le mix énergétique mondial de 1990 à 2035

by planete energies, 03 février 2016


L’ Agence Internationale de l’Énergie (AIE) a élaboré plusieurs scénarios de l’évolution prévisible du mix énergétique d’ici 2035. Le scénario moyen (« New policies scenario ») met en évidence l’augmentation de la demande en énergie primaire, qui passe de 13 000 Mtep en 2011 à 17 400 en 2035. La part des énergies fossiles (pétrole, gaz, charbon) restera largement dominante : elle passerait de 81 % en 2011 à 76 % en 2035. Les énergies renouvelables (y compris hydraulique et biomasse) seront en croissance : de 13 % en 2011 à 18 % en 2035

House Science Committee Hearing

by Judith Curry, March 29, 2017, Professor, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology Atlanta


Prior to 2010, I felt that supporting the IPCC consensus on human-caused climate change was the responsible thing to do. That all changed for me in November 2009, following the leaked Climategate emails, that illustrated the sausage making and even bullying that went into building the consensus.. (also, see .pdf)

Slingo Speaks: ‘…no extreme weather or climate event can be attributed solely to climate change”

by By Julio Slingo,  published in the Financial Times, 13 April 2017, Julia Slingo is the former chief scientist of the Met Office,

in WUWT, Anthony Watts


Last December, I retired after nearly eight years as Met Office chief scientist. It was a pleasure and privilege to lead one of the best environmental research organisations in the world at a time when, more than ever, we depend on skilful, comprehensive predictions of the weather, climate and the broader environment.

 

Are Claimed Global Record-Temperatures Valid?

by Clyde Spencer, April 12, 2017


In summary, there are numerous data handling practices, which climatologists generally ignore, that seriously compromise the veracity of the claims of record average-temperatures, and are reflective of poor science. The statistical significance of temperature differences with 3 or even 2 significant figures to the right of the decimal point is highly questionable. One is not justified in using the approach of calculating the Standard Error of the Mean to improve precision, by removing random errors, because there is no fixed, single value that random errors cluster about. The global average is a hypothetical construct that doesn’t exist in Nature. Instead, temperatures are changing, creating variable, systematic-like errors. Real scientists are concerned about the magnitude and origin of the inevitable errors in their measurements.

Also : Perspective Needed; Time to Identify Variations in Natural Climate Data that Exceed the Claimed Human CO2 Warming Effect

Five reasons blog posts are of higher scientific quality than journal articles

by Daniel Lakens, April 14, 2017


The Dutch toilet cleaner ‘WC-EEND’ (literally: ‘Toilet Duck’) aired a famous commercial in 1989 that had the slogan ‘We from WC-EEND advise… WC-EEND’. It is now a common saying in The Netherlands whenever someone gives an opinion that is clearly aligned with their self-interest. In this blog, I will examine the hypothesis that blogs are, on average, of higher quality than journal articles. Below, I present 5 arguments in favor of this hypothesis.  [EDIT: I’m an experimental psychologist. Mileage of what you’ll read below may vary in other disciplines].

See discussion here

Paris climate promises will reduce temperatures by just 0.05°C in 2100 (Press release)

by Bjorn Lomborg, April 2017


The climate impact of all Paris INDC promises is minuscule: if we measure the impact of every nation fulfilling every promise by 2030, the total temperature reduction will be 0.048°C (0.086°F) by 2100.

Even if we assume that these promises would be extended for another 70 years, there is still little impact: if every nation fulfills every promise by 2030, and continues to fulfill these promises faithfully until the end of the century, and there is no ‘CO₂ leakage’ to non-committed nations, the entirety of the Paris promises will reduce temperature rises by just 0.17°C (0.306°F) by 2100.

The subtle origins of surface-warming hiatuses

 by Christopher Hedemann et al., March 17, 2017, Nature

During the first decade of the twenty-first century, the Earth’s surface warmed more slowly than climate models simulated1. This surface-warming hiatus is attributed by some studies to model errors in external forcing2, 3, 4, while others point to heat rearrangements in the ocean5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 caused by internal variability, the timing of which cannot be predicted by the models1. However, observational analyses disagree about which ocean region is responsible11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16


See also  Anthony Watts, April 17, 2017

The Antarctic Peninsula: No Longer the Canary in the Coal Mine for Climate Alarmists

by M. Oliva et al., 2017


In light of all the above, the evidence is clearly mounting against those who point to warming on the Antarctic Peninsula as proof of CO2-induced global warming. For in the most incredible manner, warming trends that were once among the highest recorded on earth have slowed and even reversed to show cooling.

in Science of the Total Environment 580: 210-223, 2017 , Recent regional climate cooling on the Antarctic Peninsula and associated impacts on the cryosphere.

The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning

by Hourdin et al., March 2017,

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

We also discuss the challenges and opportunities in applying so-called objective methods in climate model tuning. We discuss how tuning methodologies may affect fundamental results of climate models, such as climate sensitivity. The article concludes with a series of recommendations to make the process of climate model tuning more transparent.

Claim: Next 10 years critical for achieving climate change goals

by Anthony Watts, April 13, 2007


Carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can be reduce in two ways–by cutting our emissions, or by removing it from the atmosphere, for example through plants, the ocean, and soil.

The historic Paris Agreement set a target of limiting future global average temperature increase to well below 2°C and pursue efforts to even further limit the average increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Yet the timing and details of these efforts were left to individual countries.

The art of green deception . . . about those record temperatures in Antarctica

by Warren Blair, April 7, 2017


The unusually high Esperanza temperature is likely the result of a strong jet stream that brought a strong ridge of high pressure over the Antarctic Peninsula, allowing warm air from South America to push southwards over Antarctica. Antarctic sea ice was at record-highs in 2014 and again in 2015 when modern records were shattered.

La situation énergétique américaine en chiffres

par Connaissances des Energies, 7 avril 2017


L’EIA américaine a publié récemment ses données officielles relatives à la consommation et à la production d’énergie aux États-Unis en 2016. Elle constate entre autres un recul du charbon dans le mix électrique américain. État des lieux.

Énergies fossiles : 81% de la consommation américaine d’énergie

La consommation d’énergie primaire des États-Unis a été quasiment stable en 2016  (+ 0,1% par rapport à 2015). Les énergies fossiles ont encore compté l’an dernier pour près de 81% de cette consommation (contre 86% en 2005). Le pays a consommé davantage de produits pétroliers dans les transports en 2016, de gaz pour la production d’électricité et dans le secteur industriel mais significativement moins de charbon (- 9%) pour la troisième année consécutive.

Learning from the climate’s history: the Arctic heat waves of the 1930s and 40s

by Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt [German text translated/edited by P Gosselin] , April 1, 2017


Now let’s extend the time scale and look back 100 years. What a surprise: In the 1930s and 1940s there were two heat decades in the Arctic which were almost as warm as today (Fig. 2). This is just a small fact that went missing in the WMO press release and in the derwesten.de article.

Quelles énergies dans le monde pour 2050 ?

by  Jean-Louis Schilansky, Président du Centre Hydrocarbures Non Conventionnels, 3 Avril 2017


Le début du XXIe siècle connaît une période inédite d’abondance et de diversité énergétique, marquée par d’importantes avancées technologiques dans la production d’énergie. Les développements les plus notables concernent l’essor des énergies renouvelables et des ressources d’hydrocarbures non conventionnels, en particulier de pétrole et de gaz de schiste en Amérique du Nord