by K. Richard, Sept 8, 2022 in NoTricksZone
The accuracy of the long-term global instrumental temperature record – especially the data obtained before the 1970s – wholly rests on the assumption that sailors obtained precisely reliable temperature measurements as they pulled wooden or canvas buckets out of the water from ships at random depths, locations, and times of day. They didn’t.
It has long been known that pulling a bucket out of the water from a ship is rooted in serious error, rendering the sea surface temperature (SST) data obtained nearly useless. Ashford (1948) summarized some of the more salient reliability problems with this method of measurement.
• The initial temperature of the bucket is generally different from that of the sea.
• The water in the bucket may change its temperature before the reading is taken owing to the processes of heat exchange and evaporation.
• The initial temperature of the thermometer is generally different from that of the sample.
• The thermometer is liable to scale errors.
• Owing to thermal lag, the thermometer may take an appreciable time to indicate the true temperature of the sample.
• If the thermometer is removed from the bucket when taking the reading, it may no longer indicate the true water temperature.
• The temperature may be read incorrectly.
by K. Richard, June 27, 2022 in NoTricksZone
A new study reports there has been a -0.3°C cooling in the Southern Ocean since 1982 per multiple observational data sets. The authors detail the “failure of CMIP5 models in simulating the observed SST cooling in the Southern Ocean.”
The Southern Ocean is today about 1-2°C colder than it has been for nearly all of the last 10,000 years (Shuttleworth et al., 2021, Civel-Mazens et al., 2021, Ghadi et al., 2020).
by Dieng et al., 2017 in NoTricksZone
According to Dieng et al., 2017, global sea surface temperatures (SST) cooled slightly (-0.006°C/decade) from 2003 to 2013. This reduced the overall 1950-2014 warming rate to 0.059°C per decade.
Sea and land surface temperatures, ocean heat content, Earth’s
energy imbalance and net radiative forcing over the recent years.
The NCAR/HadCRUT4 global SST record from buoys and ARGO floats also show only modest warming in the last 3 decades. The natural 2015-’16 Super El Nino event is mostly responsible for the overall increasing rate.
by J. Bastardi, March 7, 2021 in CFACT
By now all of you know my belief ( bias) that it’s the oceans, and more so the tropical oceans, that are the biggest control knob of the weather and climate. If you really wanted to make this a controlled classroom experiment (nature is not a classroom with easy controls) then I venture to say that the real way to know man’s influence is to have SST’s return to where they were in the 1970s, give it a couple of years for the water vapor adjustment, ( and if I am right. co2 will adjust as warmer oceans outsource it, so the outsourcing to the air will decrease) and see the difference there. And there you may be able to make an irrefutable argument for man’s contribution, Unfortunately for those who will not look at anything else, that is likely to be quite small, but on the other hand, unlike the warming we have had which is really in the coldest driest places and more so at their coldest driest time of the year, you would likely find the lions share of what warming would be where life thrives.. As small as that has been, less than .25C of the numbers we see all the time that tell us that at. a bit over 59 degrees the planet is overheating, it is liable to be even less detectable and certainly as or more adaptable than what we seemed to have adapted to nicely here.
But the fear of course is runaway warming which is interesting since it counters Le Chateliers, which I never hear anyone bring up, most likely because it’s a simple explanation. And a simple explanation would impact a lot of things relying on a done deal, complex explanation that the public must accept because they could never understand.
by P. Gosselin, Feb 14, 2021 in NoTricksZone
A team of Danish scientists led by David Wangner published a paper a year ago about the results of a Greenland sediment core from Skjoldungen Fjord, near the Thrym Glacier, which allowed sea surface temperatures to be reconstructed.
The core covers the past 200 years (1796–2013). The scientists find that the SST record compares well with other alkenone‐based reconstructions from SE‐Greenland and thus features regional shelf water variability.
Today some scientists like claiming the present is warmer than at any time in the past 1000 years and suggest the Greenland ice sheets are rapidly melting. But the results of the core reconstruction show that it was warmer in the past, some 80 years ago
by Zherebtsov G.A. et al., April 2019 in J.Atm&SolarTerrestrialPhysics
by P. Gosselin, April 5, 2019 in NoTricksZone
A new paper published in the Journal of Weather and Climate Extremes by Dittus et al confirms what many skeptics has strongly suspected all along: There’s no trend in precipitation extremes and there isn’t much predictability either.
by P. Gosselin, July 15, 2018 in NoTricksZone
Hurricane threat to East Coast due to natural factors
First at his most recent Saturday Summary, the 40-year meteorologist first warns that in-close developing hurricanes of the sort seen in the 1930s are a risk to the US East Coast this year, due the current Atlantic temperature pattern. The reason has nothing to do with CO2 in the atmosphere, but because of natural sea surface temperature cycles.
Sea surface temperatures see “pretty dramatic turnaround”