Archives par mot-clé : Model(s)

New Literature Strongly Suggests CO2 Residence Time In The Atmosphere Is Exaggerated!

by Dr S. Lüning and Prof. F. Vahrenholt, March 26, 2017,  in NoTricksZone


In addition, we consider temperature dependent natural emission and absorption rates, by which the paleoclimatic CO2 variations and the actual CO2 growth rate can well be explained. The anthropogenic contribution to the actual CO2concentration is found to be 4.3%, its fraction to the CO2 increase over the Industrial Era is 15% and the average residence time 4 years.”

What You Won’t Find in the New National Climate Assessment

by Dr Pat Michaels, November 3, 2017 in WUWT


Under the U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990, the federal government has been charged with producing large National Climate Assessments (NCA), and today the most recent iteration has arrived. It is typical of these sorts of documents–much about how the future of mankind is doomed to suffer through increasingly erratic weather and other tribulations. It’s also missing a few tidbits of information that convincingly argue that everything in it with regard to upcoming 21st century climate needs to be taken with a mountain of salt.

 

A skeptic attempts to break the ‘pal review’ glass ceiling in climate modeling

by Pat Frank, October 23, 2017 in WUWT


Regular readers at Anthony’s Watts Up With That will know that for several years, since July 2013 in fact, I have been trying to publish an analysis of climate model error.

The analysis propagates a lower limit calibration error of climate models through their air temperature projections. Anyone reading here can predict the result. Climate models are utterly unreliable. For a more extended discussion see my prior WUWT post on this topic (thank-you Anthony).

Estimating the extent of Antarctic summer sea ice during the Heroic Age of Antarctic Exploration

by T. Edimburgh and J. Day, November 21, 2017, in TheCryopshere


In stark contrast to the sharp decline in Arctic sea ice, there has been a steady increase in ice extent around Antarctica during the last three decades, especially in the Weddell and Ross seas. In general, climate models do not to capture this trend and a lack of information about sea ice coverage in the pre-satellite period limits our ability to quantify the sensitivity of sea ice to climate change and robustly validate climate models

Update: The 2017 Explosion Of Non-Hockey Stick Graphs Continues

by K.  Richard, September 28, 2017 in NoTricksZone


It was four months ago that an article entitled  80 Graphs From 58 New (2017) Papers Invalidate Claims Of Unprecedented Global-Scale Modern Warmingappeared on this website.  The article received international attention and was “shared” tens of thousands of times.

In the last 4 months,  40 more graphs taken from 30 more new peer-reviewed scientific papers have made their way into the ever-growing volume of evidence that today’s climate is not only not unprecedented or unusual in the context of the last millennium, but modern temperature values are still among the coldest of the last 10,000 years.

It’s worse than They thought: warming is slower than predicted

by  C.  Monckton of Brenchley, September 26, 2017 in WUWT


In the climate debate, though, it pays to read the small print. Official climatology does not usually admit its many errors: instead, we are ordered to obey the “consensus”, as the Party Line is these days rebranded. On reading the headlines, I suspected at once that the true purpose of the latest admission, by Millar et al. in the current issue of Nature Geo“science”, is to minimize and thus to conceal the true magnitude of past over-predictions.