by Regis Crepet, 2 juin 2019 in LaChaîneMétéo
Ces deux dernières années ont été marquées par une activité cyclonique supérieure aux moyennes statistiques en Atlantique Nord, notamment en 2017 avec des phénomènes puissants tels Irma et Maria dans les Caraïbes. Cette année, alors que la saison démarre officiellement le 1er juin, nos prévisions sont plus rassurantes avec la perspective d’une activité cyclonique légèrement plus faible que la moyenne.
by J. Curry and J. Johnstone, June4, 2019 in ClimateEtc.
CFAN predicts an active North Atlantic hurricane season season.
The Atlantic hurricane has begun. We are off to an early start with one wimpy subtropical storm that lasted less than a day, and a small system that is trying to spin up in the Bay of Campeche.
Other forecast providers have begun issuing forecasts:
- NOAA predicts a near normal season with 4-8 hurricanes.
- Tropical Storm Risk predicts slightly below normal activity, with 6 hurricanes and ACE of 88.
- Colorado State University predicts near normal season: 6 hurricanes and ACE of 100
Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) is going bold, see below. [link] to forecast report.
CFAN’s seasonal forecast
Table 1. Current (May) 2019 hurricane forecasts of North Atlantic ACE, North Atlantic total hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes.
by Jim Steele, May 28, 2018 in WUWT
The globally averaged temperature rose 1.5°F from 1880 to today. Various narratives suggest the rise since 1950 was driven by increasing concentrations of CO2. The rising temperature before 1950 was considered natural. Since 1990, Arctic temperatures rose 2 to 3 times faster than the global average. So, are rapidly rising Arctic temperatures evidence of an impending climate crisis?
Astute students of climate history recall rapid Arctic warming has happened often and naturally. During the last Ice Age when CO2 concentrations were just half of today’s, 25 abrupt warming events happened. Arctic temperatures rose 9°F, and sometimes as much as 14°F in just 40 years. These rapid warming episodes are now called Dansgaard–Oeschger events (D-O events) in honor of the researchers who first detected them in Greenland’s ice cores. These D-O episodes affected global climate, changed ocean currents along California’s coast and altered the range of European forests.
What caused such abrupt warming? Basic physics dismisses changes in greenhouse gases or solar insolation because neither radiative effect induces such rapid warming. The most reasonable explanation suggests episodes of ventilating heat, that had accumulated in the Arctic Ocean, rapidly warmed the air.
by K. Richard, May 9, 2019 in NoTricksZone
Another new paper published in Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology casts further doubt on the paradigm that says CO2 has historically been a temperature driver.
Evidence from the tropical Atlantic indicates today’s regional temperatures (15.5°C) are 7.5°C colder than a peak temperatures (23°C) between 15,000 to 10,000 years ago, when CO2 hovered around 220 ppm.
by H.S. Burnett, September 26, 2018 in ClimateChangeDispatch
Here are several facts that dispel these myths.
First, although the Atlantic hurricane season is not over yet, thus far, the number of hurricanes occurring this year is below average.
During a typical six-month Atlantic hurricane season, 12 named storms form, six become hurricanes, and three of those become major hurricanes – meaning Category 3 or higher.
This season, 10 named storms have formed in the Atlantic Basin, three of which became hurricanes.
Two other hurricanes briefly became minor storms off the west coast of Africa – and only Florence became a major hurricane.
Furthermore, only one has made landfall in the United States: Florence.
Before the above-average Atlantic hurricane season of 2017, the United States experienced the longest period in recorded history, nine years, without a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) striking the country.
by Paul Homewood, September 20, 2017 in NotaLotof PeopleKnowThat
It is worth re-emphasising these points:
Many storms were missed over the open ocean prior to hurricane hunter aircraft in 1944.
Even then half of the Atlantic basin was not covered.
Satellite coverage began to improve matters in 1966.
But even then monitoring has considerably improved since 1966, particularly regarding short lived storms.
See also here, here and here