Archives par mot-clé : Sun

It appears Solar Cycle 25 has begun – Solar cycle 24 one of the shortest and weakest ever

by A. Watts, April 12, 2018 in WUWT


Evidence of a Cycle 25 sunspot found

In our previous post: Solar activity crashes – the Sun looks like a cueball, 

Our resident solar physicist, Dr. Leif Svalgaard commented and provided a link to something reported by his colleagues, something that likely would not have been possible without the fantastic solar observations of NASA’s Solar Dynamic Observeratory (SDO).

It seems a small sunspot has been observed, that has the opposite polarity of cycle 24 sunspots.

Tools to Spot the Spots

by Willy Eschenbach, March 30, 2018 in WUWT


People have asked about the tools that I use to look for any signature of sunspot-related solar variations in climate datasets. They’ve wondered whether these tools are up to the task. What I use are periodograms and Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (CEEMD). Periodograms show how much strength there is at various cycle lengths (periods) in a given signal. CEEMD decomposes a signal into underlying simpler signals.

Now, a lot of folks seem to think that they can determine whether a climate dataset is related to the sunspot cycle simply by looking at a graph. So, here’s a test of that ability. Below is recent sunspot data, along with four datasets A, B, C, and D. The question is, which of the four datasets (if any) is affected by sunspots?

Extreme winter weather, such as ‘Beast from the East’, can be linked to solar cycle

by University of Exeter, March 20, 2018 in PhysOrg


Periods of extreme cold winter weather and perilous snowfall, similar to those that gripped the UK in a deep freeze with the arrival of the ‘Beast from the East’, could be linked to the solar cycle, pioneering new research has shown.

A new study, led by Dr Indrani Roy from the University of Exeter, has revealed when the is in its ‘weaker’ phase, there are warm spells across the Arctic in winter, as well as heavy snowfall across the Eurasian sector.

The research is published in leading journal Scientific Reports, a Nature Publication, on Tuesday, 20 March 2018.

 

Do-It-Yourself: The solar variability effect on climate.

by Javier, March 13, 2018 in WUWT


So, you still don’t believe small changes in solar activity can significantly affect climate? You know a very cold period during the Little Ice Age coincided with the Maunder Minimum, but you have heard that the Little Ice Age could have had other causes, like volcanoes. You have been told repeatedly that since 1980 solar activity has been decreasing while global temperature has been increasing, so it can’t be the Sun.

Not so fast. There is a vested interest in climate change not being due to the Sun, as the Sun can’t be taxed or prevented from doing what it does. A further problem is that solar physicists have no clue about how the Sun can show centennial or millennial periodicities. As they prefer to talk about what they know, they reject such periodicities, even though we have evidence in cosmogenic records (14C in tree rings and 10Be in ice cores).

And if I tell you that little changes in the Sun have a disproportionate effect on climate you won’t believe me. You shouldn’t believe me. You shouldn’t believe anybody. Science is not about believing. Religion is about believing. So, I propose that you prove to yourself what effect little changes in the Sun have on climate.

Qu’est-ce que l’Alliance solaire internationale ?

by Connaissance des Energies, 12 mars 2018


L’ Alliance solaire internationale est une initiative lancée par l’Inde et la France lors de la COP21 qui vise à « augmenter de manière significative la production d’électricité solaire » dans les 121 pays situés en totalité ou en partie entre les tropiques du Cancer et du Capricorne (des pays en voie de développement pour la grande majorité).

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En juin 2017, l’Alliance solaire internationale indiquait que 33 pays avaient signé son accord-cadre et que 6 l’avait ratifié : l’Inde, la France et 4 territoires insulaires (Fidji, Maurice, Nauru, Tuvalu)(5). Il est nécessaire que 15 pays ratifient cet accord-cadre pour qu’il entre en vigueur. En mars 2018, l’Alliance solaire internationale a été officiellement lancée à New Delhi, en présence d’Emmanuel Macron et d’une vingtaine de dirigeants d’Asie, d’Afrique et d’Océanie.

Le gouvernement indien s’est engagé à abriter le secrétariat de l’Alliance solaire internationale pour une durée de 5 ans (jusqu’en 2021).

IT’S-THE-SUN Climate Science Steamrolls Into 2018

by K. Richard, February 22, 2018 in NoTricksZone


According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN-IPCC) and computer modeling, the Sun’s role in modern-era climate change checks in at somewhere slightly above nothing.

And yet it is increasingly evident that more and more scientists across the globe do not take the position that the Sun’s influence on climate change is negligible.

In 2016 and 2017, for example, over 250 papers (see here and here) linking the Sun to climate changes were published in scientific journals.

Forecast for Solar Cycle 25

by J.A. Marusek, February 2018, in WUWT


The sun is the natural source of heat and light for our planet. Without our sun, the earth would be a cold dead planet adrift in space. But the sun is not constant. It changes and these subtle changes affect the Earth’s climate and weather.

At the end of solar cycle 23, sunspot activity declined to a level not seen since the year 1913. [Comparing Yearly Mean Total Sunspot Numbers1]

The following was observed during the solar cycle 24: (…)

Maunder Minimum & The CET

by P Homewood, February 10, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


As mentioned yesterday, scientists now believe we could be heading into a 50 year period of reduced solar activity similar to what happened in the mid-17th century, which could lead to a drop in global temperatures of “several tenths of a degree Celsius”.

 As has been pointed out, climate is a far more complex matter than climate scientists admit, and one about which we still know very little.

Whether a Maunder-like Minimum will happen again in the next few years, and whether it will have the effect claimed, remain to be seen.

But there is considerable evidence that the Maunder Minimum did coincide with a sharp fall in temperatures across the NH, as NASA show above.

See also here

Svensmark: “global warming stopped and a cooling is beginning” – “enjoy global warming while it lasts”

by A Watts, September 10, 2009 in WUWT


UPDATED: This opinion piece from Professor Henrik Svensmark was published September 9th in the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten. Originally the translation was from Google translation with some post translation cleanup of jumbled words or phrases by myself. Now as of Sept 12, the translation is by Nigel Calder.  Hat tip to Carsten Arnholm of Norway for bringing this to my attention and especially for translation facilitation by Ágúst H Bjarnason – Anthony

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Alarmist Retreat Begins: Natural Factors May Cause New Global Warming Hiatus

by Dr Benny Peiser, January 24, 2018 in ClimateChangeDispatch


The solar variability is not negligible in comparison with the energy imbalance that drives global temperature change.

Therefore, because of the combination of the strong 2016 El Niño and the phase of the solar cycle, it is plausible, if not likely, that the next 10 years of global temperature change will leave an impression of a ‘global warming hiatus.’ —James Hansen et al, 18 January 2018

The Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) has lodged a new complaint with the BBC about its misleading reporting on global warming.

See also here

Seven New Papers Forecast Global Cooling, Another Mini Ice Age Soon

by K. Richard, December 28, 2017 in ClimateChangeDispatch


During 2017, 120 papers linking historical and modern climate change to variations in solar activity and its modulators (clouds, cosmic rays) have been published in scientific journals.

It has been increasingly established that low solar activity (fewer sunspots) and increased cloud cover (as modulated by cosmic rays) are highly associated with a cooling climate.

In recent years, the Earth has unfortunately left a period of very high solar activity, the Modern Grand Maximum.  Periods of high solar activity correspond to multi-decadal- to centennial-scale warming.

Solar scientists are now increasingly forecasting a period of very low activity that will commence in the next few years (by around 2020 to 2025).  This will lead to climate cooling, even Little Ice Age conditions.

Thirteen recently-published papers forecasting global cooling are listed below.