Latest GFS runs are forecasting a truly frosty and snowy next 7+ days for the majority of Europe, as winter continues to encroach ever-further into spring — a phenomenon long-predicted by those who study the Sun’s impact on climate.
Beginning this weekend, brutal Arctic cold will engulf practically ALL of Europe sinking temperatures some 16C below-the-seasonal-average for many:
…and there’s plenty more where that came from.
GFS runs are predicting rare April snow accumulating during the next 14-or-so days, particularly in Norway, Sweden, NE Russia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, the Balkans, Italy, the Alps, Spain, and even the UK (also, note the substantial falls in Eastern Turkey, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan):
Even NASA agrees, in part at least, with their forecast for this upcoming solar cycle (25) revealing it will be “the weakest of the past 200 years,” with the agency correlating previous solar shutdowns to prolonged periods of global cooling here.
If you had not noticed (!), it has been a mild and wet start to the year here in the UK, and also across in NW Europe.
No doubt this will be linked to global warming in due course, but in fact it is simply weather, as the CET chart below proves:
Since the year started, temperatures have consistently been within the normal band. In other the sort of temperatures commonly seen at this time of year.
However, they have also been consistently in the top half of that band, rather than being spread between cold and warm, as would happen most years.
The reason for the weather we have had is, of course, the jet stream, or more precisely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which has been strongly and stubbornly positive all winter.
The Norwegian Centre for Climate Research CICERO spotted this mild weather coming back in December, and commented on 6th January:
The unusual warm temperatures this winter and forecasts indicating milder winter conditions for January, February and March in Europe are partly due to an atmospheric circulation pattern called the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO. This atmospheric circulation pattern explains well the weather we get in Europe, especially in winter.
In a remarkable essay last week titled, “We’re Getting a Clearer Picture of the Climate Future — and It’s Not as Bad as It Once Looked,” David Wallace-Wells of New York Magazine wrote, “the climate news might be better than you thought. It’s certainly better than I’ve thought.”
The essay was remarkable because Wells, a self-described “alarmist,” is also the author of The Uninhabitable Earth, which describes an apocalyptic vision of the future, dominated by “elements of climate chaos.”
According to Wallace-Wells, his new-found optimism was the result of learning that much discussion of climate change is based on extreme but implausiblescenarios of the future where the world burns massive amounts of coal.
The implausibility of such scenarios is underscored by more recent assessments of global energy system trajectories of the International Energy Agency and United Nations, which suggest that carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels will be relatively flat over the next several decades, even before aggressive climate policies are implemented.
Scenarios of the future have long sat at the center of discussions of climate science, impacts and adaptation and mitigation policies.
Scenarios are not intended to be forecasts of the future, but rather to serve as an alternative to forecasting. Scenarios provide a description of possible futurescontingent upon various factors, only some of which might be under the control of decision-makers.
La géologie, une science plus que passionnante … et diverse