Archives mensuelles : novembre 2022

climate and geology, climate-debate

Nature Unbound I: The Glacial Cycle

by Javier, Oct 24, 2016 in ClimateEtc.

Insights into the debate on whether the Holocene will be long or short.

Summary: Milankovitch Theory on the effects of Earth’s orbital variations on insolation remains the most popular explanation for the glacial cycle since the early 1970’s. According to its defenders, the main determinant of a glacial period termination is high 65° N summer insolation, and a 100 kyr cycle in eccentricity induces a non-linear response that determines the pacing of interglacials. Based on this theory some authors propose that the current interglacial is going to be a very long one due to a favorable evolution of 65° N summer insolation. Available evidence, however, supports that the pacing of interglacials is determined by obliquity, that the 100 kyr spacing of interglacials is not real, and that the orbital configuration and thermal evolution of the Holocene does not significantly depart from the average interglacial of the past 800,000 years, so there is no orbital support for a long Holocene.

…

…

climate-debate

Glacier saga

by J. Curry, Nov 10, 2022 in ClimateEtc.

The loss of glaciers from Glacier National Park is one of the most visible manifestations of climate change in the U.S.  Signs were posted all around the park, proclaiming that the glaciers would be gone by 2020.  In 2017, the Park started taking these signs down.  What happened, beyond the obvious fact that the glaciers hadn’t disappeared by 2020?

Screen Shot 2022-11-10 at 11.31.49 AM

Not only are Montana’s glaciers an important icon for global warming (e.g. Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth), it also seems that the glaciers are an important political icon for progressive politicians in Montana. Earlier this week, Reilly Neill, a (sort of) politician in Montana, went after me on Twitter:

…

better to know...?, climate-debate

Now It’s Claimed Anthropogenic Global Warming Is Driven By Aerosol Emissions Reductions, Not CO2

by K. Richard, Nov 10, 2022 in NoTricksZone

An increase in effective radiative forcing from human activity is now said to be mostly driven by a decline in aerosol pollution, superseding the effects of CO2 emissions.

The majority of an alleged acceleration in anthropogenic global warming in the 21st century “is driven by changes in the the aerosol [effective radiative forcing] trend, due to aerosol emissions reductions” (Jenkins et al., 2022).

Abstract

Estimates of the anthropogenic effective radiative forcing (ERF) trend have increased by 50% since 2000 (+0.4W/m2/decade in 2000-2009 to +0.6W/m2/decade in 2010-2019), the majority of which is driven by changes in the aerosol ERF trend, due to aerosol emissions reductions. Here we study the extent to which observations of the climate system agree with these ERF assumptions. We use a large ERF ensemble from IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) to attribute the anthropogenic contributions to global mean surface temperature (GMST), top-of-atmosphere radiative flux, and aerosol optical depth observations. The GMST trend has increased from +0.18°C/decade in 2000-2009 to +0.35°C/decade in 2010-2019, coinciding with the anthropogenic warming trend rising from +0.19°C/decade in 2000-2009 to +0.24°C/decade in 2010-2019. This, and observed trends in top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes and aerosol optical depths support the claim of an aerosol-induced temporary acceleration in the rate of warming. However, all three observation datasets additionally suggest smaller aerosol ERF trend changes are compatible with observations since 2000, since radiative flux and GMST trends are significantly influenced by internal variability over this period. A zero-trend-change aerosol ERF scenario results in a much smaller anthropogenic warming acceleration since 2000, but is poorly represented in AR6’s ERF ensemble. Short-term ERF trends are difficult to verify using observations, so caution is required in predictions or policy judgments that depend on them, such as estimates of current anthropogenic warming trend, and the time remaining to, or the outstanding carbon budget consistent with, 1.5°C warming. Further systematic research focused on quantifying trends and early identification of acceleration or deceleration is required.

…

better to know...?, climate-debate

97% Consensus on Climate Change? Survey Shows Only 59% of Scientists Expect Significant Harm

by WUWT, Nov 9, 2022

Humans are likely causing some warming, but substantial scientific disagreement exists on whether there will be significant impacts

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, IL (November 8, 2022) – A new poll of scientists conducted by Fairleigh Dickinson University found that only 59 percent of respondents think global climate change will cause “significant harm” to the “living conditions for people alive today.” That is far short of the “97 percent consensus” narrative pushed by climate alarmists and their media allies across the globe.

The survey, conducted in September and October 2022 by Fairleigh Dickinson University and commissioned by The Heartland Institute, polled only professionals and academics who held at least a bachelor’s degree in the fields of meteorology, climatology, physics, geology, and hydrology.

The key question of the survey asked: “In your judgement, what will be the overall impact of global climate change on living conditions for people alive today, across the globe?” Fifty-nine percent said “significant harm.” Thirty-nine percent said either “significant improvement,” “slight improvement,” “no change,” or “slight harm.” Two percent were not sure.

Among respondents with the most experience – those at least 50-years-old – less than half expect significant harm for people alive today. Scientists 30-years-old and younger were the only age group for which more than 60 percent expect significant harm.

Like prior surveys of scientists, the new poll shows the vast majority of scientists agree the planet is warming. On average, respondents attributed 75 percent of recent warming to human activity. More importantly, scientists disagree among themselves on whether future warming will be much of a problem.

The poll also found only 41 percent of respondents believe there has been a significant increase in the frequency of severe weather events. The majority say there has been no change or only a slight increase.

In reality, objective data show hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires, drought, and other extreme weather events have become less frequent in recent decades.

…

climate-debate

Mid-Pleistocene transition in glacial cycles explained by declining CO2 and regolith removal

by Willeit et al., 2019 in ScienceAdvances

Abstract

Variations in Earth’s orbit pace the glacial-interglacial cycles of the Quaternary, but the mechanisms that transform regional and seasonal variations in solar insolation into glacial-interglacial cycles are still elusive. Here, we present transient simulations of coevolution of climate, ice sheets, and carbon cycle over the past 3 million years. We show that a gradual lowering of atmospheric CO2 and regolith removal are essential to reproduce the evolution of climate variability over the Quaternary. The long-term CO2 decrease leads to the initiation of Northern Hemisphere glaciation and an increase in the amplitude of glacial-interglacial variations, while the combined effect of CO2 decline and regolith removal controls the timing of the transition from a 41,000- to 100,000-year world. Our results suggest that the current CO2 concentration is unprecedented over the past 3 million years ant that global temperature never exceeded the preindustrial value by more than 2°C during the Quaternary.
…
better to know...?, climate-debate, Cooling

Dramatic Cooling And Recent Ice Shelf Advance Over The Antarctic Peninsula

by K. Richard, Nov 3, 2022 in NoTricksZone

Scientists struggle to keep their stories straight regarding the anthropogenic CO2 impact on polar climates.

It is claimed that anthropogenic CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels are responsible for amplifying warming (“polar amplification“) and ice melt in polar climates, consistent with pronouncements pertaining to anthropogenic global warming.

However, Antarctica’s Larsen Ice Shelf station indicates a massive cooling trend, -1.1°C per decade, has been ongoing since the late 1990s (Bozkurt et al., 2020).

…

only geology

How big was the Tonga eruption?

by M. Sharma & S. Scarr, Jan 21, 2022 in ReutersGraphics

The explosive eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano may be one of the largest recorded in such detail. The blast was visible from space, with images of the massive ash plume going viral over the following days. But just how big was it?

The underwater volcano erupted with a deafening explosion on Jan. 15, triggering deadly tsunamis, covering islands in ash, and knocking out communications for Tonga’s 105,000 people

The event was captured in astonishing detail by satellites including the NOAA GOES-West satellite, shown below.

better to know...?, climate-debate

How IPCC’s 1990 Predictions Expensively Failed

by C. Monckton of Brenchley, Nov 8, 2022 in WUWT

It is now almost a third of a century since 1990, when IPCC made its first predictions about the weather. Since IPCC (2021) continues to predict the same 3 C° midrange long-term warming (equilibrium doubled-CO2 sensitivity, or ECS, broadly equivalent to 20th-century anthropogenic warming from all sources) as in 1990, it is high time someone examined IPCC’s medium-term predictions to shed light on the plausibility of its long-term predictions.

IPCC’s key medium-term prediction in 1990 was as follows –

“Based on current model results, we predict:

  • “under the IPCC Business-as-Usual (Scenario A) emissions of greenhouse gases, a rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next century of about 0.3 C° per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2 C° to 0.5 C° per decade). This is greater than that seen over the past 10,000 years. This will result in a likely increase in global mean temperature of about 1 C° above the present value by 2025 and 3 C° before the end of the next century. The rise will not be steady because of the influence of other factors.”

IPCC also predicted as follows –

This second business-as-usual prediction was that there would be 1.8 C° warming from preindustrial times to 2030. Deducting the 0.45 C° warming up to 1990, the prediction amounted to 1.35 C° or about 0.34 C°/decade. Thus, IPCC predicted 0.3-0.34 C°/decade medium-term warming. However, only 0.14 C°/decade has occurred since 1990

…

…

better to know...?, climate-debate

New Research: Eastern U.S. Warming Over Last 50 Years Overstated By 50%

by C. Morrison, Nov 24, 2022 in ClimateChangeDispatch

The widespread use of regularly adjusted global and local surface temperature datasets showing increasingly implausible rates of warming has been dealt a further blow with new groundbreaking research that shows 50% less warming over 50 years across the eastern United States.

The research attempts to remove distortions caused by increasing urban heat and uses human-made structure density data over 50 years supplied by the Landsat satellites. [bold, links added]

The 50% reduction in the warming trend is in comparison with the official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) homogenized surface temperature dataset.

The research was compiled by two atmospheric scientists at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, Dr. Roy Spencer and Professor John Christy.

They used a dataset of urbanization changes called ‘Built-Up’ to determine the average effect that urbanization has had on surface temperatures.

Urbanization differences were compared to temperature differences from closely spaced weather stations. The temperature plotted was in the morning during the summertime.

A full methodology of the project is shown here in a posting on Dr. Spencer’s blog.

Dr. Spencer believes that the ‘Built-Up’ dataset, which extends back to the 1970s, will be useful in ‘de-urbanizing’ land-based surface temperature measurements in the U.S. as well as other countries.

All the major global datasets use temperature measurements from the Integrated Surface Database (ISD), and all have undertaken retrospective upward adjustments in the recent past.

In the U.K., the Met Office removed a ‘pause’ in global temperatures from 1998 to around 2010 by two significant adjustments to its HadCRUT database over the last 10 years.

The adjustments added about 30% warming to the recent record. Removing the recent adjustments would bring the surface datasets more in line with the accurate measurements made by satellites and meteorological balloons.

Of course, if the objective is to promote a command-and-control Net Zero project using widespread fear of rising temperatures to mandate huge societal and economic changes, a little extra warming would appear useful.

But warming on a global scale started to run out of steam over 20 years ago, and the stunt can only be pulled for so long before the disconnect with reality becomes too obvious.

There is a danger that the integrity of the surface measurements will be put on the line. Earlier this year, two top atmospheric scientists, Emeritus Professors William Happer and Richard Lindzen told a U.S. Government inquiry that “climate science is awash with manipulated data, which provides no reliable scientific evidence.”

…

unclassified

Europe’s climate warming at twice rate of global average, claims WMO

by P. Homewood, Nov 4, 2022 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

Temperatures in Europe have increased at more than twice the global average in the last 30 years, according to a report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

The effects of this warming are already being seen, with droughts, wildfires and ice melts taking place across the continent. The European State of the Climate report, produced with the EU’s Copernicus service, warns that as the warming trend continues, exceptional heat, wildfires, floods and other climate breakdown outcomes will affect society, economies and ecosystems.

From 1991 to 2021, temperatures in Europe have warmed at an average rate of about 0.5C a decade. This has had physical results: Alpine glaciers lost 30 metres in ice thickness between 1997 and 2021, while the Greenland ice sheet has also been melting, contributing to sea level rise. In summer 2021, Greenland had its first ever recorded rainfall at its highest point, Summit station.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/nov/02/europes-climate-warming-at-twice-rate-of-global-average-says-report

…

The WMO is of course another UN organisation, so obviously cannot be trusted. Neither can any of its sources of data, such as NOAA, GISS and Berkeley Earth, which are based around homogenised data.

But what do we know about recent climate trends in Europe?

…

climate-debate, LIA

Scotland In the Little Ice Age

by P. Homewood, Nov 3, 2022 in WUWT

Dundee University geographer Dr Martin Kirkbride said a glacier may have survived in the Cairngorms as recently as the 18th Century.

Britain’s last masses of slow-moving ice and snow were understood to have melted 11,500 years ago.

Dr Kirkbride studied the formation of corries in the Cairngorms.

A corrie is a basin-shaped feature created by glaciations in the mountains.

Using a technique called cosmogenic 10Be dating, Dr Kirkbride showed that a small glacier in a Cairngorms corrie piled up granite boulders to form moraine ridges within the past few centuries, during the period of cool climate known as the Little Ice Age.

Dr Kirkbride said: “Our laboratory dating indicates that the moraines were formed within the last couple of thousand years, which shows that a Scottish glacier existed more recently than we had previously thought.

“The climate of the last few millennia was at its most severe between 1650 and 1790.

“There are some anecdotal reports from that time of snow covering some of the mountain tops year-round. What we have now is the scientific evidence that there was indeed a glacier.”

Dundee University said scientists had speculated that glaciers may have re-formed in the Highlands around the time of this Little Ice Age but hard evidence has proved to be elusive.

Dr Kirkbride teamed up with Dr Jez Everest at the British Geological Survey in Edinburgh, and the Cosmogenic Isotope Analysis Facility at the Scottish Universities Environmental Reactor Centre in East Kilbride, to carry out the research.

…

climate-debate

China, India set to snub Cop27 leaders’ climate summit

by Chloé Farad Nov 2, 2022 in ClimateHomeNews

A weak turnout is expected from major emitters in Sharm el-Sheikh, shifting the geopolitical showdown to a G20 leaders’ summit in Bali

Narendra Modi

Indian prime minister Narendra Modi at Cop26 in Glasgow in 2021 (Photo: IISD/ENB/ Kiara Worth )

 

The world’s biggest emitters won’t attend a leaders’ summit kicking off the Cop27 climate talks in Egypt next week. 

More than 100 heads of states and governments are expected to attend the two-day summit, on the theme of “implementation”, in the Red Sea beach resort of Sharm el-Sheikh 7-8 November.

Amid soaring inflation and deepening geopolitical tensions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the high-level event is a moment for leaders to recommit to international climate cooperation.

But a provisional list of speakers, dated 31 October, shows that neither China’s Xi Jinping nor India’s Narendra Modi are expected to attend.

US president Joe Biden won’t make the leader segment because of an agenda clash with the US mid-term elections on 8 November. A handful of tight races will determine whether the Democrats keep hold of the Senate.

Instead, Biden will travel to Sharm el-Sheikh on the 11 November, the White House has confirmed.

Cop27 movers and shakers: Nine people shaping the climate agenda

“The absence of China and India doesn’t help inject much-needed political momentum into the talks,” Tom Evans, of think tank E3G, told Climate Home News.

In fact, showing from the G20 group of major economies is expected to be poor.

Australia’s Anthony Albanese is skipping the meeting. Defending his decision, he told reporters he “can’t be in all places at once”. “This Cop is one of implementation. It’s not one of a new policy and program,” he said.

Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau, who has the worst emissions record in the G7, isn’t on the list. A government spokesperson confirmed he isn’t going to Sharm el-Sheikh.

…

climate-debate

Allow children to learn about the Arctic without terrifying them with fantasies of climate catastrophe

by Polar Bear Science, Oct 31, 2022

This is a reminder that I have written three Arctic animal picture books, a polar bear ecology reference book, an Arctic ecology teaching guide (free) & a polar bear attack thriller suitable for teens, all of which let kids be kids.

In contrast to a book reviewer at the New York Times (30 October 2020), see image above:

Two new picture books and a novel for young readers place children at the center of climate calamity. Fittingly, they are stories of homes under threat; home, after all, is the thing climate change stalks, be it a house, a community or a livable planet. Each book offers its own lessons on how to cope with life under the monster we’ve created. The novel even shows how kids can help slay it.

No child needs this. Children need to be allowed to learn without being used as pawns in an adult political battle. Activist authors suggesting that climate change is a predator waiting to ‘stalk’ children’s homes and communities through floods and wildfires is reprehensible, not only because it isn’t true. Kids don’t need a ‘mini-primer on climate change’. Adults should fight their own battles and leave the kids alone. List of my books and links below and in the sidebar.

Polar Bear Facts & Myths, for middle-school kids: Available in six languages: English, French, German, Dutch, Norwegian, Portuguese. English version also available in ebook version.

Walrus Facts & Myths is available in English in paperback and ebook formats, also aimed at middle-school kids.

Free Arctic sea ice ecology teaching guide for middle-school age home schooled kids. The printable pdf booklet is free to download here.

Polar Bears Have Big Feet, for preschoolers in paperback only (because little kids need one too!).

Polar Bears: Outstanding Survivors of Climate Change, fully referenced information on polar bear ecology, suitable for teens and adults, in paperback and ebook formats.

EATEN: A novel, a polar bear attack thriller suitable for teens and adults, in paperback and ebook formats. Many readers have told me: “I couldn’t put it down.”

unclassified

Greta’s Back: COP27 A ‘Scam’, A Platform For ‘Greenwashing, Lying, Cheating’

by S. Smith, Oct 31, 2022 in ClimateChangeDispatch

Greta Thunberg has described climate summits such as the COP27 conference taking place in Egypt next week as a “scam” that is “failing” humanity and the planet by not leading to “major changes.”

The Swedish activist said people in positions of power were using the high-profile gatherings for attention and were “greenwashing, lying, and cheating”. [bold, links added]

“As it is now, COPs not are not really going to lead to any major changes, unless of course, we use them as an opportunity to mobilize,” she said on stage at the Southbank Centre’s London Literature Festival on Sunday where she was promoting her new work The Climate Book, an anthology of essays on the climate crisis from over one hundred experts.

Activists must try to “make people realize what a scam this is and realize that these systems are failing us”, she added.

This week the UN warned that there is “no clear pathway” in place to limit global heating to 1.5C – a target from the 2016 Paris Agreement – as only a handful of countries had strengthened their pledges to take action.

In a wide-ranging keynote address and on-stage interview with the journalist Samira Ahmed, Ms. Thunberg spoke on everything from politics and activism to how to deal with eco-anxiety.

Asked for her thoughts on the controversial tactics of groups such as Extinction Rebellion and Just Stop Oil, who have recently made headlines, including by throwing soup over Van Gough’s Sunflowers, the teenager said there was a broad range of actions so [she] couldn’t generalize, but that she thought it was “reasonable” to expect climate activists to try different kinds of actions.

“We’re right now in a very desperate position and many people are becoming desperate and are trying to find new methods because we realize that what we’ve been doing up until now has not done the trick,” she told Ahmed.

As for upsetting people, she said “harming people is one thing and making someone annoyed is a different thing.”

…

See also : Greta Thunberg Spurns COP27, Lays Out Plans for World Domination

better to know...?, climate-debate

THE UNSTOPPABLE GROWTH OF GLOBAL GHG EMISSIONS

by R. Lyman, Oct 2022 in FriendsOfScience

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Contributed by Robert Lyman © 2022. Robert Lyman’s bio can be read here.

Advocates of the thesis that human greenhouse gas emissions are causing catastrophic climate change claim that United Nations-led international conferences will succeed in causing the countries of the world collectively to radically reduce fossil fuel use by 2050.

The “climate change” issue is a global one. It concerns the global effects of global emissions and the possibility that collective action by all the countries of the world (or, at least, the vast majority of major emitters) can so reduce emissions and concentrations as to eventually change global impacts. Since 1992, there has been a series of international conferences, mostly under the auspices of the United Nations, seeking agreement on how, by how much, and when to reduce emissions. In spite of these conferences and the series of agreements and lofty political statements they have produced, emissions actually rose by 60 per cent from 1990 to 2020. By 2021, China alone accounted for 30 per cent of world emissions, and was the fastest-growing source of emissions, followed by India.

…