by P. Homewood, April 5, 2020 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
Just following up on Joe Bastardi’s article yesterday about El Ninos and Arctic warming, it is worth looking at longer term trends.
Below is the chart of the MEI, with red indicating El Ninos and blue La Ninas.:
Extended Multivariate ENSO Index
As we can see, the period 1925 to 1945 was dominated by powerful El Ninos. This of course was also the time of great warming in the Arctic, known as “The Warming in The North”, when temperatures across much of the Arctic were as high as they are now.
During the 1950s, a much colder climate took over in the Arctic, until it became warmer again in the 90s. This was also a period when La Ninas dominated.
The climate in the Arctic is also very well correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO):
Continuer la lecture de El Nino & Arctic Warming In the 1930s
by P. Gosselin, December 11, 2019 in NoTricksZone
Not CO2 related
A little later in the report we also find a flow diagram for the Victoria Falls:
Figure: Water flow rate-volume at the Victoria Falls an den 1907-2006. Source: Beilfuss 2012 (immediately pdf)
We see a strong variability from year to year. On a scale of several decades, the period 1940-1980 is characterized by particularly high flow rates. The early 20th century was rather dry. A coupling to the 60-year-old ocean cycle offers itself. The Pacific is far away, but the wet Zambezi phase fits quite well into the negative PDO:
igure: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Source: By Giorgiogp2 – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=13297650
by P. Gosselin, July 7, 2019 in NoTricksZone
By Die kalte Sonne
(German text translated by P Gosselin)
Seven years ago, in our book “The Forgotten Sun”, we proposed using ocean cycles for medium-term forecasts. At the time, the climate establishment was strictly opposed to this. Today fortunately times have changed.
On March 15, 2019, a team led by George Krokos analyzed the temperature development of the Red Sea in Geophysical Research Letters, which has become noticeably warmer in recent decades. The researchers put this into a long-term context and found a strong correlation with the 70-year ocean cycle of the AMO (Atlantic Multidecade Oscillation).
Now that AMO has reached its peak, Krokos and colleagues expect the Red Sea to cool in the next three decades.
Natural Climate Oscillations may Counteract Red Sea Warming Over the Coming Decades
Recent reports of warming trends in the Red Sea raise concerns about the response of the basin’s fragile ecosystem under an increasingly warming climate. Using a variety of available Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data sets, we investigate the evolution of Red Sea SST in relation to natural climate variability. Analysis of long‐term SST data sets reveals a sequence of alternating positive and negative trends, with similar amplitudes and a periodicity of nearly 70 years associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. High warming rates reported recently appear to be a combined effect of global warming and a positive phase of natural SST oscillations. Over the next decades, the SST trend in the Red Sea purely related to global warming is expected to be counteracted by the cooling Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phase. Regardless of the current positive trends, projections incorporating long‐term natural oscillations suggest a possible decreasing effect on SST in the near future.