Archives par mot-clé : Energy

New paper tries to disentangle global warming from natural ocean variations

by A. Watts, March 15, 2018 in WUWT


This paper deals with the central argument that skeptics bring up about claims of global warming: How do you separate the temperature signal from the base components like natural variation, human land-use influence, micro-site bias, measurement errors and biases, and other factors to get the “true” global warming signal?

The answer is that you can’t, at least not easily.

With the surface temperature record, it’s somewhat easier since  you can observe some of those elements directly and separate them (such as we’ve done in our surfacestations project for land-use microsite biases), but in the ocean, everything is homogenized by the ocean itself. All you can look for is patterns, and try to disentangle based on pattern recognition. That’s what they are trying to do here.

Disentangling Global Warming, Multidecadal Variability, and El Niño in Pacific Temperatures
Authors
Robert C. Wills, Tapio Schneider, John M. Wallace, David S. Battisti, Dennis L. Hartmann

 

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Strategic minerals – Our next energy and security crisis?

by Paul Driessen, February 26, 2018 in WUWT


America has had its share of oil-centered energy problems and disruptions. Now it faces potential renewable energy and high technology crises, because of its heavy reliance on imports of the rare earth and other strategic minerals that are the essential building blocks for wind turbines, solar panels, computers, smart phones, medical diagnostic devices, night vision goggles, GPS and communication systems, long-life batteries and countless other applications.

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Fossil Fuels and Emissions Forecast To Continue To Rise – BP Energy Outlook

by P. Homewood, February 22, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


These are the highlights:

The speed of the energy transition is uncertain and the new Outlook considers a range of scenarios. Its evolving transition (ET) scenario, which assumes that government policies, technologies and societal preferences evolve in a manner and speed similar to the recent past, expects

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Where Do We Get Most Of Our Energy (Hint: Not Renewables)

by Bjorn Lomborg, February 20, 2018 in ClimateChangeDispatch


The world is mostly run on fossil fuels (81%). Nuclear makes up 5%, with 14% from renewables. Solar panels and wind turbines contribute 0.8%.

When you hear 14% renewables, you will likely think ‘wow, things are going pretty well with the switch to renewables’. But these renewables are not the ones you hear about. The biggest contributor is humanity’s oldest fuel: wood (…)

Oil Boom Gives the U.S. a New Edge in Energy and Diplomacy

by Clifford Krauss, January 28, 2018 in TheNewYorkTimes


HOUSTON — A substantial rise in oil prices in recent months has led to a resurgence in American oil production, enabling the country to challenge the dominance of Saudi Arabia and dampen price pressures at the pump.

The success has come in the face of efforts by Saudi Arabia and its oil allies to undercut the shale drilling spree in the United States. Those strategies backfired and ultimately ended up benefiting the oil industry.

Overcoming three years of slumping prices proved the resiliency of the shale boom. Energy companies and their financial backers were able to weather market turmoil — and the maneuvers of the global oil cartel — by adjusting exploration and extraction techniques.

Toujours plus d’énergie et un mix quasiment inchangé en 2040 ?

by Connaissance des Energies, 15 septembre 2017


La consommation mondiale d’énergie pourrait augmenter de 28% entre 2015 et 2040 selon les dernières prévisions de l’EIA (agence américaine d’information sur l’énergie) présentées hier. Le mix énergétique mondial devrait pour sa part rester très largement dominé par les énergies fossiles dans les décennies à venir.

EIA: World energy consumption to increase 28% by 2040

by Oil&Gas Journal Editors, September 14, 2017


World energy consumption is projected to rise to 736 quadrillion btu (quads) in 2040 from 575 quads in 2015, an increase of 28%, according to the latest International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017) from the US Energy Information Administration.

Most of this growth is expected to come from countries that are not in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and especially in countries where demand is driven by strong economic growth, particularly in Asia. Non-OECD Asia, which includes China and India, accounts for more than 60% of the world’s total increase in energy consumption from 2015 through 2040.

Global energy investment fell for a second year in 2016 as oil and gas spending continues to drop

by International Energy Agency (iea), July 11, 2017


Global energy investment fell by 12% in 2016, the second consecutive year of decline, as increased spending on energy efficiency and electricity networks was more than offset by a continued drop in upstream oil and gas spending, according to the International Energy Agency’s annual World Energy Investment report.

Global energy investment amounted to USD 1.7 trillion in 2016, or 2.2% of global GDP. For the first time, spending on the electricity sector around the world exceeded the combined spending on oil, gas and coal supply. The share of clean-energy spending reached 43% of total supply investment, a record high.

Quelles énergies dans le monde pour 2050 ?

by  Jean-Louis Schilansky, Président du Centre Hydrocarbures Non Conventionnels, 3 Avril 2017


Le début du XXIe siècle connaît une période inédite d’abondance et de diversité énergétique, marquée par d’importantes avancées technologiques dans la production d’énergie. Les développements les plus notables concernent l’essor des énergies renouvelables et des ressources d’hydrocarbures non conventionnels, en particulier de pétrole et de gaz de schiste en Amérique du Nord

Quelles énergies dans le monde pour 2050 ?

par Prof. Samuel Furfari, 23 Mars 2017

Expert européen auprès de la DG Énergie de la Commission européenne

Maître de conférences à l’Université Libre de Bruxelles


2050, c’est dans 33 ans. Il y a 33 ans, nous étions en 1984, en plein contre-choc pétrolier. Après le tremblement du monde suite aux deux chocs pétroliers consécutifs provoqués par l’OPEP, le prix du pétrole était tombé si bas qu’aujourd’hui encore, tout nouveau contre-choc pétrolier constitue un épouvantail pour l’Arabie saoudite. Qu’est-ce qui avait permis cette contre-révolution et mis en échec la stratégie de l’OPEP ? Tout d’abord, l’abandon de la consommation de produits pétroliers dans les centrales électriques (à l’époque, le prix du brut était si bas que l’on pouvait se permettre le luxe de l’utiliser pour produire de l’électricité). La maturation de la technologie nucléaire et le développement de technologies modernes de combustion de charbon ont changé la donne. Ensuite, la mise en œuvre de technologies plus efficientes, notamment dans le secteur de l’automobile, avait donné lieu à des économies d’énergie qui ont permis de réduire la consommation de pétrole. Cela se résumait à l’époque par un slogan lancé par la Commission européenne : COCONUC pour « COal, COnservation and NUClear ». Les résultats ont été au rendez-vous et ont suscité un retour à la sérénité énergétique.

The world’s energy needs continue to grow, but many millions are left behind

World Energy Outlook 2016 IEA, March 16, 2017

Executive summary


In our main scenario, a 30% rise in global energy demand to 2040 means an increase in consump on for all modern fuels, but the global aggregates mask a mul tude of diverse trends and signi cant switching between fuels. Moreover, hundreds of millions of people are s ll le in 2040 without basic energy services. Globally, renewable energy – the subject of an in-depth focus in WEO-2016 – sees by far the fastest growth. Natural gas fares best among the fossil fuels, with consump on rising by 50%. Growth in oil demand slows over the projec on period, but tops 103 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2040. Coal use is hit hard by environmental concerns and, a er the rapid expansion of recent years, growth essen ally grinds to a halt. The increase in nuclear output is spurred mainly by deployment in China.