Archives par mot-clé : History

Climate cycles and their extrapolation into the future

by Dr. Dietrich Koelle, February 2, 2015 in NoTricksZone

As the reconstruction of the climate’s development in the past by proxy data shows, there’s a series of temperature cycles that appear to be unknown, or ignored by many climate scientists. Among these are the larger climate cycles of 150 million to 180 million years (see Part 1 and Part 2), but also the shorter and for us the more important following cycles:

1000 years (900-1100)    Suess cycle with +/-  0.65°C
230 years (230-250)        deVries cycle with +/-  0.30°C
65  years (60-65)              Ocean cycles with +/- 0.25°C


Megafaunal extinctions driven by too much moisture

by University of Adelaide, April 18, 2017 in ScienceDaily

Studies of bones from Ice Age megafaunal animals across Eurasia and the Americas have revealed that major increases in environmental moisture occurred just before many species suddenly became extinct around 11-15,000 years ago. The persistent moisture resulting from melting permafrost and glaciers caused widespread glacial-age grasslands to be rapidly replaced by peatlands and bogs, fragmenting populations of large herbivore grazers.

The idea of moisture-driven extinctions is really exciting because it can also explain why Africa is so different, with a much lower rate of megafaunal extinctions and many species surviving to this day, says Professor Cooper.

Learning from the climate’s history: the Arctic heat waves of the 1930s and 40s

by Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt [German text translated/edited by P Gosselin] , April 1, 2017

Now let’s extend the time scale and look back 100 years. What a surprise: In the 1930s and 1940s there were two heat decades in the Arctic which were almost as warm as today (Fig. 2). This is just a small fact that went missing in the WMO press release and in the article.

A Twenty-Six Decade Record of Atlantic Hurricanes

R. Garibaldi et al., 2016

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 148, 48-52

As for the potential cause behind the downward trend, Rojo-Garibaldi et al. examined the possibility of a solar influence, performing a series of additional statistical analyses (spectral, wavelet and coherence wavelet transform) on the hurricane database, as well as a sunspot database obtained from the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center of the Solar Physics Department of the Royal Observatory of Belgium. Therein, their exploratory analyses revealed that “this decline is related to an increase in sunspot activity.”

Les sociétés méditerranéennes à l’épreuve du climat 1500-1850

Prof. Emmanuel Granier

(Historien du climat, Institut Universitaire de France), 2011

L’étude concerne l’histoire du climat dans le bassin méditerranéen septentrional (Italie, France, Espagne) entre les XVIe et XIXe siècles. Préalablement, elle présente un état de l’art dans les domaines historiographique, documentaire et méthodologique pour les pays de l’Europe méditerranéenne. Puis, ce travail aborde la question des fluctuations en proposant successivement des reconstructions instrumentales et phénologiques (blé, olives et vendanges).

Selon E. Granier, l’espérance de vie moyenne d’un événement anormal dans la mémoire des gens est de l’ordre de 2 à 5 ans.