by Dr. P. Peiser, Apr 17, 2024 in ClimateChangeDispatch
The Global Warming Policy Foundation has today published its periodic review of global hurricane activity. [emphasis, links added]
The author, climate researcher Paul Homewood, says that official data is absolutely clear: hurricanes are neither increasing in number nor intensity.
Click to enlarge
Homewood says:
“The observational data published by meteorological agencies in 2023 has confirmed once again that there are no upward trends in global hurricane activity since reliable records began in the 1970s.”
Every year, tropical hurricanes affect North and Central American wildlife and people. The ability to forecast hurricanes is essential in order to minimize the risks and vulnerabilities in North and Central America. Machine learning is a newly tool that has been applied to make predictions about different phenomena. We present an original framework utilizing Machine Learning with the purpose of developing models that give insights into the complex relationship between the land–atmosphere–ocean system and tropical hurricanes. We study the activity variations in each Atlantic hurricane category as tabulated and classified by NOAA from 1950 to 2021. By applying wavelet analysis, we find that category 2–4 hurricanes formed during the positive phase of the quasi-quinquennial oscillation. In addition, our wavelet analyses show that super Atlantic hurricanes of category 5 strength were formed only during the positive phase of the decadal oscillation. The patterns obtained for each Atlantic hurricane category, clustered historical hurricane records in high and null tropical hurricane activity seasons. Using the observational patterns obtained by wavelet analysis, we created a long-term probabilistic Bayesian Machine Learning forecast for each of the Atlantic hurricane categories. Our results imply that if all such natural activity patterns and the tendencies for Atlantic hurricanes continue and persist, the next groups of hurricanes over the Atlantic basin will begin between 2023 ± 1 and 2025 ± 1, 2023 ± 1 and 2025 ± 1, 2025 ± 1 and 2028 ± 1, 2026 ± 2 and 2031 ± 3, for hurricane strength categories 2 to 5, respectively. Our results further point out that in the case of the super hurricanes of the Atlantic of category 5, they develop in five geographic areas with hot deep waters that are rather very well defined: (I) the east coast of the United States, (II) the Northeast of Mexico, (III) the Caribbean Sea, (IV) the Central American coast, and (V) the north of the Greater Antilles.
Although many meteorologists and climatologists confirm that there is no data suggesting global warming is causing more frequent and intense tornado and hurricane activity, there is a small but influential alarmist group who claim otherwise. And it’s no surprise who the click-baiting media parrot at maximum volume.
Landfalling hurricanes downward trend
At the 5:45 mark, Joe presents a chart depicting the frequency of US landfalling hurricanes since 1900:
by H.S. Burnett, September 26, 2018 in ClimateChangeDispatch
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Here are several facts that dispel these myths.
First, although the Atlantic hurricane season is not over yet, thus far, the number of hurricanes occurring this year is below average.
During a typical six-month Atlantic hurricane season, 12 named storms form, six become hurricanes, and three of those become major hurricanes – meaning Category 3 or higher.
This season, 10 named storms have formed in the Atlantic Basin, three of which became hurricanes.
Two other hurricanes briefly became minor storms off the west coast of Africa – and only Florence became a major hurricane.
Furthermore, only one has made landfall in the United States: Florence.
Before the above-average Atlantic hurricane season of 2017, the United States experienced the longest period in recorded history, nine years, without a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) striking the country.
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La géologie, une science plus que passionnante … et diverse
