Trends In Atlantic Hurricanes

by Paul Homewood, September 20, 2017 in NotaLotof PeopleKnowThat


It is worth re-emphasising these points:

  • Many storms were missed over the open ocean prior to hurricane hunter aircraft in 1944.

  • Even then half of the Atlantic basin was not covered.

  • Satellite coverage began to improve matters in 1966.

  • But even then monitoring has considerably improved since 1966, particularly regarding short lived storms.

    See also herehere and here

Is the world warming to clean coal?

by Sebastien Laye, September 18, 2017 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


Those voices are the impetus behind what Subramanian calls a “green and clean coal coalition” spanning both the developed and developing worlds. Emerging markets in Asia and Africa will continue to build new coal-fired power stations for at least the next two decades. In that timeframe, coal-fired solutions are indispensable to meeting their demands for electrification and growth. As clean coal solutions emerge, new plants in the developing world can and should be far cleaner than previous generations of coal-fired plants in Europe and America.

CLIMATE CHANGE WILL TAKE LONGER, SAY SCIENTISTS

by Dr David Whitehouse, September 19, 2017 in GWPF


The study is published in the journal Nature Geoscience by a team of scientists led by Richard Millar of the University of Oxford. It has recalculated the carbon budget for limiting the Earth’s warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above temperatures seen in the late 19th century. It had been widely assumed that this stringent target would prove unachievable, but the new study would appear to give us much more time to act if we want to stay below it.

See also here and  here

The Correlation of Seismic Activity and Recent Global Warming

by Arthur Viterio, 2016, in  J Earth Science Climate Change


Earth’s climate is a remarkably “noisy” system, driven by scores of oscillators, feedback mechanisms, and radiative forcings. Amidst all this noise, identifying a solitary input to the system (i.e., HGFA MAG4/6 seismic activity as a proxy for geothermal heat flux) that explains 62% of the variation in the earth’s surface temperature is a significant finding.

See also here

Irma : un record de rumeurs

by Cédric Moro, 18 septembre 2017 in Mythes,Mancies&Mathématiques


Que n’a-t-on pas entendu dans une partie de la presse et dans les déclarations à chaud de scientifiques et d’experts du climat sur l’uragan Irma. C’était du jamais vu, du jamais mesuré, d’une puissance inégalée, Europe 1 allant jusqu’à parler « du plus important de l’histoire climatologique ». Des eaux extraordinairement chaudes devaient expliquer son intensité effroyable (sous-entendu :  Irma, c’est la faute au réchauffement), ses vents destructeurs records, son diamètre exceptionnel, ses pluies diluviennes, son raz de marée démesuré, son intensification inouïe ou ses dégâts hors normes…

La revanche des pétroles de schiste

by Connaissance des Energies, 18 septembre 2017


Après avoir vu leur production tripler entre 2010 et 2014, les « light tight oil » américains (LTO), fréquemment appelés « pétroles de schiste », ont fait preuve d’une résilience étonnante lors de la chute des prix. Ils surprennent aujourd’hui à nouveau les marchés et pourraient contrarier la stratégie de l’OPEP.

Dans cette étude publiée par le Centre Énergie de l’Ifri, Sylvie Cornot-Gandolphe (voir le .pdf ci-dessous) présente les grands changements du secteur des LTO américains au cours des dernières années en expliquant leur résilience lors de la chute des cours et leurs perspectives de croissance.

 

Egalement ce .pdf fort complet

Nature Unbound V – The elusive 1500-year Holocene cycle

by Javier,  September 15, 2017, in Judith Curry Climate Etc.


The existence of a 1500-year climatic cycle during the Holocene, related to the glacial Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle, is a matter of intense debate. However, by introducing precise timing requirements it can be shown that the 1500-year cycle displayed in Northern Hemisphere glacial records is also observed in Holocene records from all over the world.

The cycle is most prominently displayed in oceanic subsurface water temperatures, Arctic atmospheric circulation, wind deposits, Arctic drift ice, and storminess records.

Now available on Amazon: ‘Climate Change: The Facts 2017’

by John Abbot et al., September 2017, in A. Watts, WUWT


Climate Change: The Facts 2017 contains 22 essays by internationally-renowned experts and commentators, including Dr Bjorn Lomborg, Dr Matt Ridley, Professor Peter Ridd, Dr Willie Soon, Dr Ian Plimer, Dr Roy Spencer, and literary giant Clive James. Anthony Watts also has a chapter.

The volume is edited by Dr Jennifer Marohasy, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Public Affairs. Fourteen of the contributors currently hold or have held positions at a university or a scientific research organisation.

Smaller Trends and No Acceleration of Mediterranean Sea Levels

by S. Zerbini et al., 2017 in Earth-Science Reviews


Zerbini et al. also investigated/tested for the existence of an acceleration of sea level rise in each of the six Mediterranean station’s data, reporting that “our analysis indicates that it is not possible to reliably state the existence of any acceleration, in the area of this study, considering the past 140 years or so, from 1870 through 2012.”

Toujours plus d’énergie et un mix quasiment inchangé en 2040 ?

by Connaissance des Energies, 15 septembre 2017


La consommation mondiale d’énergie pourrait augmenter de 28% entre 2015 et 2040 selon les dernières prévisions de l’EIA (agence américaine d’information sur l’énergie) présentées hier. Le mix énergétique mondial devrait pour sa part rester très largement dominé par les énergies fossiles dans les décennies à venir.

The Little Boy, El Nino and Natural Climate Change

by Anastasios Tsonis, September 15, 2017 in GWPF Report26 (.pdf)


This report describes this phenomenon and brings it into a modern global con- text. But the story is more than simply one of some old South American geophysical phenomenology seen from a global perspective; it is tied to an extraordinary story about new scienti c thinking, arising at the end of the 20th century, concerning the nature of change itself.

EIA: World energy consumption to increase 28% by 2040

by Oil&Gas Journal Editors, September 14, 2017


World energy consumption is projected to rise to 736 quadrillion btu (quads) in 2040 from 575 quads in 2015, an increase of 28%, according to the latest International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017) from the US Energy Information Administration.

Most of this growth is expected to come from countries that are not in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and especially in countries where demand is driven by strong economic growth, particularly in Asia. Non-OECD Asia, which includes China and India, accounts for more than 60% of the world’s total increase in energy consumption from 2015 through 2040.

SEA LEVEL: Rise and Fall – Part 1

by Kip Hansen, September 13, 2017 in WUWT


I have written about sea level rise here:  here, here, here, here and here.  The previous essays are not prerequisites but are interesting specific examples.

There are two important points which readers must be aware of from the first mention of SLR:

  1. SLR is a real imminent threat to coastal cities and low-lying coastal and near-coastal densely-populated areas.

  2. SLR is not a threat to anything else — not now, not in a hundred years — probably not in a thousand years — maybe, not ever.

Half-a-billion-year-old fossils shed light animal evolution on Earth

by University of Manchester, September 11, 2017 in ScienceDaily


The international team, including palaeontologist from The University of Manchester, found a new set of trace fossils left by some of the first ever organisms capable of active movement. Trace fossils are the tracks and burrows left by living organisms, not physical remains such as bones or body parts.

See also here

Carbon dioxide emission-intensity in climate projections: Comparing the observational record to socio-economic scenarios

by F. Pretis and M. Roser, June 2017, Energy, Elsevier


 

The wide range of socio-economic scenarios in climate projections results in high uncertainty about climate change.

We compare socio-economic scenario projections to observations over 1990–2010.

Global CO2 emission intensity increased despite all major scenarios projecting a decline.

Under-projection of emission intensity raises concerns about achieving emission targets.

 

The State of Global Shale

by The American Interest, September 6, 2017


While the United States gears up for what is expected to be a record-breaking production year in 2018, the rest of the world remains far away from catching up to America’s runaway shale success. But while the U.S. may be the only country producing commercially significant volumes of shale today, it’s not the only one with sizable shale reserves—according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Argentina, Algeria, and China all have more shale gas than the United States, and Russia has nearly as much tight oil

Histoire longue des cyclones aux Antilles

by Benoît Rittaud, 13 septembre 2017


Le cyclone Irma qui a dévasté Saint-Martin et Saint-Barthélémy dans les Antilles françaises a servi de prétexte à de nombreux commentateurs et journalistes pour en remettre une couche sur les “dérèglements climatiques d’origine humaine”. Comme d’habitude, les vagues éléments de prudence rappelant qu’on ne peut tirer de conclusions d’un élément isolé ont vite été noyés par les “appels à l’action” et l’invocation de l’Accord de Paris de 2015.

Or s’agissant du climat aux Antilles l’année 2015 a été importante pour une toute autre raison que la signature de l’Accord de Paris : c’est l’année de publication d’un article de recherche tout à fait passionnant sur les ouragans dans cette région du monde.

Open letter to UN Secretary-General: Current scientific knowledge does not substantiate Ban Ki-Moon assertions on weather and climate, say 125-plus scientists

by Habibullo I. Abdussamatov  +125/et al., November 29, 2012, in Washington Post


On November 13, 2012, you said at Yale: “The science is clear; we should waste no more time on that debate.”

We the undersigned, qualified in climate-related matters, wish to state that current scientific knowledge does not substantiate your assertions.

Past Sea Levels Rose 4-6 Meters Per Century, Shorelines Retreated 40 Meters Per Year…Without CO2 Flux

by Kenneth Richard, September 7, 2017 in NoTricksZone


This modern rate  –  just 0.17-0.18 of a meter per century has remained relatively unchanged from the overall 20th century average, and there has been no statistically significant acceleration in the sea level rise rate (just 0.0042 mm/yr-²) since 1900.

The evolution of Hurricane Irma’s disinformation campaign

by Paul Homewood, September 7, 2017 in ClimateChangeDispatch


(…)

In other words, there have now been four hurricanes as strong or stronger since 1980, about one every decade, and certainly nothing like the “unprecedented” impression left by the headlines.

And as we know, prior to Allen in 1980, we had very little in the way of measurements in mid-ocean.

A closer look at the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, widely acknowledged to be by far the most powerful storm to hit the US, emphasizes this fact.

La géologie, une science plus que passionnante … et diverse