Solar Cycle 24 Going Down As Quietest In Almost 200 Years, May Put The Brakes On Warming

by Von Frank Bosse & F. Vahrenholt, January 30, 2019 in WUWT


Our sun was also very sub-normally active in December last year. We are writing the 121st month since the beginning of cycle number 24, in December 2008, and since 2012 (when we started the blog here) we could only reformulate the opening sentence once: In September 2017 when the sun was 13% more active than the long-term (since 1755) average.

All other months were below average. With the sunspot number (SSN) of 3.1 for the monthly average for December and a total of 24 days without any spot (throughout the second half of the month the sun was spotless) we are in the middle of the cycle minimum.

Fig. 2: The sunspot activity of our sun since cycle 1 (1755). The numbers are calculated by adding the monthly differences with respect to the mean (blue in Fig.1) up to the current cycle month 121.

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Venezuela : quelle leçon retenir de l’échec de ce champion du pétrole ?

by Samuel Furfari, 29 janvier 2019 in  Contrepoints


La révolution bolivarienne financée par le pétrole a complètement appauvri le Venezuela. Les idéologues socialistes avaient tout faux depuis le début.

Le paradoxe est encore plus étrange car le pays est très riche en ressources naturelles. Avec 303 milliards de barils (18 %  du total mondial), le Venezuela détient les plus grandes réserves prouvées de brut au monde, loin devant l’Arabie Saoudite qui en possède 266. Pour mesurer leur ampleurs, observons que ces réserves correspondent à celles combinées de la Russie, des États-Unis et de l’Iran. Il possède également 6 400 milliards de m3 de gaz naturel – 3,3 % des réserves mondiales –  soit près de quatre fois les réserves de la Norvège, considérée en Europe comme un grand du gaz.

La plupart des réserves de pétrole prouvées du Venezuela sont situées dans le bassin du fleuve Orinoco, où 220,5 milliards de barils de pétrole lourd gisent, pratiquement inexploités. Même s’il n’est pas de première qualité, c’est quand même du pétrole. La principale zone de production se trouve dans le bassin de Maracaibo, où l’on pompe près de 50 % du pétrole vénézuélien.

70,000 March in Brussels to Demand Climate Action

by Eric Worrall, January 29, 2019 in WUWT


A message to French Yellow Vests that greens and EU supporters can field large groups of demonstrators. But half the pro-climate action marchers were school children.

I’m disgusted by how greens seem to think it is OK to use children as political pawns in their nasty game.

The school children, half of the climate action marchers, have no idea about the real world. They have never experienced the misery of watching their meagre weekly pay packets taxed away by distant green politicians who have no empathy or concern for the problems of ordinary people.

Ocean Warming in Climate Models Varies Far More than Recent Study Suggests

by Roy Spencer, January 17, 2019 in GlobalWarming


I wanted to expand upon something that was mentioned in yesterday’s blog post about the recent Cheng et al. paper which was widely reported with headlines suggesting a newer estimate of the rate of ocean warming is 40% higher than old estimates from the IPCC AR5 report in 2013. I demonstrated that the new dataset was only only 11% warmer when compared to the AR5 best estimate of ocean warming during 1971-2010.

The point I want to reemphasize today is the huge range in ocean warming between the 33 models included in that study. Here’s a plot based upon data from Cheng’s website which, for the period in question (1971-2010) shows a factor of 8 range between the model with the least ocean warming and the model with the most warming, based upon linear trends fitted to the model curves:

Yearly ocean heat content (OHC) changes since 1971 in 33 models versus the recent Cheng reanalysis of XBT and Argo ocean temperature data for the surface to 2,000m layer. The vertical scale is in both ZettaJoules (10^21 Joules) and in deg. C (assuming an ocean area of 3.6 x 10^14 m^2). The Cheng et al. confidence interval has been inflated by 1.43 to account for the difference between the surface area of the Earth (Cheng et al. usage) and the actual ocean surface area.

German Scientists To More Closely Investigate Cloud Formation, A Vital Component In Climate

by P. Gosselin, January 27, 2019 in NoTricksZone


Leipzig, 20 December 2018

Researchers from Leipzig cooperate with scientists from Punta Arenas (Chile) to learn more about the relationship between air pollution, clouds and precipitation.

Leipzig/Punta Arenas. How do airborne particles, so-called aerosols, affect the formation and life cycle of clouds and precipitation? In order to come one step closer to solving this question, atmospheric scientists from the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS) and the Leipzig Institute for Meteorology (LIM) at Leipzig University will observe the atmosphere at one of the cleanest places in the world for at least a year. The choice fell on Punta Arenas because the city is located on a comparable geographical latitude as Germany and will thus enable comparisons between the northern and southern hemispheres. The measurement campaign is part of the International Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), which aims to improve weather and climate forecasts for the polar regions through intensive measurements.

Germany totally kills coal – will likely end up in the dark, without heat and light

by Anthony Watts, January 27, 2019 in WUWT


From the LA times, a bold move, but unlikely they can pull it off.

Germany to close all 84 of its coal-fired power plants, will rely primarily on renewable energy

The decision to quit coal follows an earlier bold energy policy move by the German government, which decided to shut down all of its nuclear power plants by 2022 in the wake of Japan’s Fukushima disaster in 2011.

The initial targets are considerable, calling for a quarter of the country’s coal-burning plants with a capacity of 12.5 gigawatts to be shut down by 2022. That means about 24 plants will be shut within the first three years. By 2030, Germany should have about eight coal-burning plants remaining, producing 17 gigawatts of electricity, the commission said.

 

 

Dangerous, Record-Breaking Cold to Invade Midwest, Chicago

by Roy Spencer, January 24, 2019 in WUWT


A “Siberian Express” weather disturbance currently crossing the Arctic Ocean will meet up with the semi-permanent winter “polar vortex” over Canada, pushing a record-breaking cold air mass into the Upper Plains and Midwest U.S. by Wednesday.

Chicago All-Time Record Low?

Both the European (ECMWF) and U.S. (GFS) weather forecast models are in agreement that by Wednesday morning temperatures in the Chicago suburbs will be approaching -30 deg. F. The all-time official record low for the Chicago metro area was -27 deg. F (O’Hare) on January 20, 1985, and that 34 year old record could fall as the ECMWF model is forecasting -32 deg. F for Thursday morning while the GFS model is bottoming out at -26 deg. F on Wednesday morning. Of course, these forecasts will change somewhat in the coming days as the cold wave approaches.

Volcano In Scotland May Have Caused Prehistoric Global Warming prehistoric volcanic eruption

by S. Beech, January 25, 2019 in ClimateChangeDispatch


A massive volcanic eruption in Scotland on the same scale as the infamous Krakatoa blast may have contributed to prehistoric global warming.

Scientists say that global temperatures spiked around 56 million years ago.

And a new study suggests that a major explosive eruption from the Red Hills on the Isle of Skye may have been a contributing factor to the massive climate disturbance.

Large explosive volcanic eruptions can have lasting effects on climate and have been held responsible for severe climate effects in Earth’s history.

One such event occurred around 56 million years ago when global temperatures increased by up to 8 degrees Celcius (46 degrees Fahrenheit.)

The event has been named the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM).

 

Encore des observations n’allant pas dans le sens de la théorie!

by Jean, N. 25 janvier 2019 in ScienceClimatEnergie


En octobre 2017 un article signé Carl Brehmer[1] et traitant de la théorie de l’effet de serre radiatif était publié sur le site web de l’association anglaise Principia Scientific International[2]. Dans cet article, l’auteur utilisait des données fournies par les stations météorologiques SURFRAD et démontrait que la théorie de l’effet de serre ne pouvait pas expliquer les observations. Si l’auteur a raison, il s’agit encore d’un sérieux problème pour la théorie. Dans le présent article nous allons suivre les pas de Carl Brehmer mais nous allons faire nos propres calculs en employant une autre méthodologie. Arriverons-nous aux mêmes conclusions?

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Figure 1. Les stations SURFRAD de la NOAA aux Etats-Unis

Early 20th century global warming

by Judith Curry, January 25, 2019 in ClimateEtc.


A careful look at the early 20th century global warming, which is almost as large as the warming since 1950.  Until we can explain the early 20th century warming, I have little confidence IPCC and NCA4 attribution statements regarding the cause of the recent warming.

This is an issue that has long interested me.  Peter Webster wrote a previous post Mid 20th Century Global(?) Warming, which focused on the warm bump that culminated in the 1940’s.  My interest in this period was reignited while working on my report Sea Level and Climate Change.  Then, the recent paper by Zanna et al. discussed in Ocean Heat Content  Surprises further made the wheels turn.

In response to the Ocean Heat Content thread, David Appell posted a link to this paper on twitter:

The early 20th century warming: Anomalies, causes and consequences

The CO2 Derangement Syndrome – a historical overview

by Anthony Watts, January 23, 2019 in WUWT


Guest essay by Dr. Norman Page

A very large majority of establishment academic climate scientists have succumbed to a virulent infectious disease – the CO2 Derangement Syndrome. Those afflicted  by this syndrome  present with a spectrum of symptoms .The first is an almost total inability to recognize the most obvious Millennial and 60 year  emergent patterns which are trivially obvious in solar activity and global temperature data.

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New Paper: PETM Was Caused by Climate Change… Ancient Climate Change Caused Climate Change… AEUHHH????

by David Middleton, January 23, 2019 in WUWT


Note how the PETM (55 Ma) is about as far from a CO2 analog to modern times as it possibly could be… unless the PETM stomata data are correct, in which case AGW is even more insignificant than previously thought.

Regarding temperatures, the PETM is also about as far from being an analog to modern times as it possibly could be.

 

Figure 2.  High latitude SST (°C) From benthic foram δ18O.  Funny how the PETM is often cited as a nightmarish version of a real-world RCP8.5… While the warmer EECO is a climatic optimum. (Zachos et al., 2001). Note: Older is to the right.

 

 

 

Munich Conference: Leading Danish Astrophysicist Says Solar Activity Has Significant Impact On Global Climate

by Prof. H. Svensmark, January 22, 2019 in NoTricksZone


Danish Professor Henrik Svensmark is a leading physicist of cosmic radiation. At the end of last year he made a presentation at the 12th International Climate Conference in Munich, where he demonstrated that the climate is indeed modulated in large part by cloud cover, which in turn is modulated by solar activity in combination with cosmic rays.

His theory is that cosmic rays, which are extremely fast-flying particles – which originate from dying supernovae – travel through the cosmos, strike the Earth’s atmosphere and have a major impact on cloud cover and thus climate on the Earth’s surface.

This, Svensmark says, has been confirmed in numerous laboratory experiments.

Is ocean warming accelerating faster than thought? In a word, no.

by Nic Lewis, January 22, 2019 in WUWT


There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. My analysis of these issues is followed by a reply from the paper’s authors.

Contrary to what the paper indicates:

  • Contemporary estimates of the trend in 0–2000 m depth ocean heat content over 1971–2010 are closely in line with that assessed in the IPCC AR5 report five years ago

  • Contemporary estimates of the trend in 0–2000 m depth ocean heat content over 2005–2017 are significantly (> 95% probability) smaller than the mean CMIP5 model simulation trend.

La géologie, une science plus que passionnante … et diverse