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climate-debate

La fraction anthropique de + 0,3°C depuis 1880 est “noyée” dans la variabilité naturelle

by François Gervais, 6 juillet 2019 in LaSynthèse.OnLine

Conférence de M.François GERVAIS, Lauréat du Prix Yvan Peyches de l’Académie des Sciences, (6 Juillet 2019)

La vague de chaleur ayant traversé la France lors de la dernière semaine de Juin 2019 a donné lieu à une prolifération d’âneries proférées par certains médias, ainsi que, malheureusement, par certains hommes politiques. Les mêmes qui refusaient de prendre en compte les records de froid de l’hiver 2018-2019 dans l’hémisphère Nord, le record de surface de la banquise dans l’Antarctique du 21 septembre 2014 et le record de froid près du Pôle Sud (-98°6 C en 2018), en disant « Ne mélangez pas météo et climat » se sont mis frénétiquement à brandir des records de chaleur comme des scalps, oubliant au passage le bon conseil qu’ils donnaient eux-mêmes il y a 6 mois… Cette augmentation de la variabilité des températures, qui revient régulièrement dans l’histoire du climat de la Planète Terre, est un phénomène naturel où l’Homme, monté sur ses ergots, joue un rôle bien plus faible que clamé urbi et orbi par ceux qui s’enrichissent, au sens propre, du « climat de peur » qu’ils génèrent.

Pour nourrir le débat de faits scientifiques, recensés par des études menées par des scientifiques renommés, dont les références sont citées sur chaque slide, nous avons demandé à M. François Gervais, ancien Directeur de l’UMR 6157 du CNRS, et expert reviewer du rapport AR5 du GIEC, l’autorisation de reproduire sur La Synthèse les 52 slides projetées lors d’une Conférence qui eut lieu le 13 décembre 2018 (NDLR).

 

  1. Pour accéder aux 52 slides, résumant les enjeux de la transition énergétique, merci de cliquer sur le premier lien en bas de page.

  2. Pour accéder à la biographie de M. François Gervais, auteur de plus de 230 publications dans des revues scientifiques à comité de lecture, cliquer sur le deuxième lien en bas de page.

  3. Pour assister à la Conférence du 13 décembre 2018, cliquer sur le lien ci-dessous (durée : 59 minutes) :

climate-debate, to keep an eye on...

PUTTING CLIMATE CHANGE CLAIMS TO THE TEST

by John Christy, June 18, 2019 in GWPF

This is a full transcript of a talk given by Dr John Christy to the GWPF on Wednesday 8th May.

When I grew up in the world of science, science was understood as a method of finding information. You would make a claim or a hypothesis, and then test that claim against independent data. If it failed, you rejected your claim and you went back and started over again. What I’ve found today is that if someone makes a claim about the climate, and someone like me falsifies that claim, rather than rejecting it, that person tends to just yell louder that their claim is right. They don’t look at what the contrary information might say.

OK, so what are we talking about? We’re talking about how the climate responds to the emission of additional greenhouse gases caused by our combustion of fossil fuels. In terms of scale, and this is important, we want to know what the impact is on the climate, of an extra half a unit of forcing amongst total forcings that sum to over 100 units. So we’re trying to figure out what that signal is of an extra 0.5 of a unit.

Here is the most complicated chart I have tonight, and I hope it makes sense:

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climate-debate

MULTIPLE ALL-TIME LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS SET ACROSS GERMANY — RARE JULY FROSTS RAVAGE SAXONY

by Cap Allon, July 5, 2019 in Electroverse

On the back of the well documented 3-days of heat last week, Germany is now setting multiple new record low temperatures as the anticipated and long-lasting Arctic front begins to take hold.

The mercury in Rotenburg, Lower Saxony plunged to 2.9C (37.2F) on Thursday morning — low enough to break the town’s all-time record cold temperature for the month of July which had stood since 1946, according to wetter.com.

The new record low temperature comes just days after Germany logged an all-time record high — serving as further evidence of the swings-between-extremes brought on by low solar activity and the associated weakening of the jet stream.

SEE ALSO: The Changing Jet Stream

Along with Rotenburg, many other regions of Germany also registered record-low temperatures on Thursday morning.

I’ve listed a few below (data again courtesy of wetter.com):

  • Quickborn: 4C (39.2F) — lowest July temperature since 1999.
  • Göttingen: 4C (39.2F) — lowest July temperature since 1996.
  • Soltau: 4.1C (39.4F) — lowest July temperature since 1986.
  • Friesoythe: 4.7C (40.5F) –lowest July temperature since 1971.
  • Lippstadt: 4.8C (40.6F) — lowest July temperature since 1990.
  • Diepholz: 5.1C (41.2F) — lowest July temperature since 1971.

In addition, the village of Deutschneudorf in Saxony reported ground frost this week — an event that’s only occurred on six previous occasions throughout all of Germany during the month of July.

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climate-debate, to keep an eye on...

Medieval Climate Anomaly Now Confirmed In Southern Hemisphere On All Four Continents

by Lüning et al., July  6, 2019 in NoTricksZone

For a long time it has been said that the Medieval Warm Period was a purely North Atlantic phenomenon. This has proved to be wrong.

On 29 June 2019, a paper by Lüning et al. 2019 on the Medieval Warm Period in Antarctica appeared in the trade journal Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. Here is the abstract:

With the publication of this paper, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) has now been confirmed on all four continents of the southern hemisphere.

While the largest part of the southern hemisphere apparently experienced a warm phase during the MCA, there were also isolated areas that cooled down. To the latter regions belong, for example, coasts, where cold water from the depth rose increasingly. In other areas so-called climate seesaws or dipoles were active, as we know them from today’s climate. One end of the “seesaw” heats up, the other end cools down.

Another result of the studies is that the medieval climate history of huge areas in the southern hemisphere is simply unknown. A task force urgently needs to be set up to fill in this climatic “empty space” with information on pre-industrial temperature development. This information is urgently needed to calibrate the climate models on the basis of which far-reaching socio-political planning is currently taking place.

What follows are publications on the Medieval Period climate of the southern hemisphere as an overview:

Lüning, S., M. Gałka, F. Vahrenholt (2019): The Medieval Climate Anomaly in Antarctica. Palaeogeogr., Palaeoclimatol., Palaeoecol., doi: 10.1016/j.palaeo.2019.109251

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