by P. Homewood, October 5, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
It’s that time of the year again!
Unfortunately Peter Wadhams is wrong yet again:
by P. Homewood, October 5, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
It’s that time of the year again!
Unfortunately Peter Wadhams is wrong yet again:
by K. Richard, October 3, 2019 in NoTricksZone
In the last few years, hundreds of peer-reviewed scientific papers have been published linking changes in solar activity to Earth’s climate (2016, 2017, 2018). The evidence for a robust Sun-Climate connection continues to accumulate in 2019.
When it comes to the Sun’s influence on climate, one conclusion is certain: there is no widespread scientific agreement as to how and to what extent solar activity and its related parameters (i.e., galactic cosmic rays, geomagnetic activity, solar wind flux) impact changes in the Earth’s temperature and precipitation.
The disagreement is so chasmic and the mechanisms are so poorly understood that scientists’ estimates of the influence of direct solar irradiance forcing between the 17th century and today can range between a negligible +0.1 W m-2 to a very robust +6 W m-2 (Egorova et al., 2018; Mazzarella and Scafetta, 2018).
“There is no consensus on the amplitude of the historical solar forcing. The estimated magnitude of the total solar irradiance difference between Maunder minimum and present time ranges from 0.1 to 6 W/m2 making uncertain the simulation of the past and future climate.” (Egorova et al., 2018)
“According to the IPCC (2013), solar forcing is extremely small and cannot induce the estimated 1.0–1.5 °C since the LIA. However, thesolar radiative forcing is quite uncertain because from 1700 to 2000 the proposed historical total solar irradiance reconstructions vary greatly from a minimum of 0.5 W/m2 to a maximum of about 6 W/m2 (cf..: Hoyt and Schatten 1993; Wang et al. 2005; Shapiro et al. 2011). Moreover, it is believed that the sun can influence the climate also via a magnetically induced cosmic ray flux modulation (e.g.: Kirkby 2007) or via heliospheric oscillation related to planetary resonances (e.g.: Scafetta 2013, 2014b; Scafetta et al. 2016, and others). Since solar and climate records correlate quite significantly throughout the Holocene (cf: Kerr 2001; Steinhilber et al. 2012; Scafetta 2012, 20104b), the results shown herein may be quite realistic, although the exact physical mechanisms linking astronomical forcings to climate change are still poorly understood.” (Mazzarella and Scafetta, 2018)”
by David Middleton, October 4, 2019 in WUWT
‘Coal is still king’ in Southeast Asia even as countries work toward cleaner energy
PUBLISHED MON, SEP 30 2019
• Not only will coal continue to be the dominant fuel source in power generation in Southeast Asia, its use will grow and peak in 2027 before slowing, according to a Wood Mackenzie study.
• The Indonesian government has targeted generating 23% of electricity from renewable sources by 2025 — almost double the 12% now, but it will be “difficult to achieve because capacity expansion plans are still dominated by coal,” Moody’s analysts say.
• Global coal demand grew for a second straight year to reach 0.7% in 2018, International Energy Agency data shows.
Figure 1. Global coal consumption by region (million tonnes of oil equivalent per year). BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019.
by Cap Allon, October 4, 2019 in Electroverse
New Zealand’s average temperature last month –for the country as a whole– was below the 1981-2010 September avg., Niwa has said in its Monthly Climate Summary.
An unusual warming of the atmosphere high above Antarctica –called a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event (SSW)– assisted in making last month the fourth coldest September in New Zealand this century.
There have only ever been two SSWs recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, previous to this years — one in September 2002 (major) and another in September 2010 (minor).
The 2002 SSW event resulted in New Zealand experiencing a significant cold outbreak in October while the 2010 event was associated with record rainfall during September.
by Roy Spencer, October 4, 2019 in WUWT
While the vast majority of our monthly global temperature updates are pretty routine, September 2019 is proving to be a unique exception. The bottom line is that there is nothing wrong with the UAH temperatures we originally reported. But what I discovered about last month is pretty unusual.
It all started when our global lower tropospheric (LT) temperature came in at an unexpectedly high +0.61 deg. C above the 1981-2010 average. I say “unexpected” because, as WeatherBell’s Joe Bastardi has pointed out, the global average surface temperature from NOAA’s CFS model had been running about 0.3 C above normal, and our numbers are usually not that different from that model product.
[By way of review, the three basic layers we compute average temperatures from the satellites are, in increasing altitude, the mid-troposphere (MT), tropopause region (TP), and lower stratosphere (LS). From these three deep layer temperatures, we compute the lower tropospheric (LT) product using a linear combination of the three main channels, LT = 1.548MT – 0.538TP +0.01LS.]
Yesterday, John Christy noticed that the Southern Hemisphere was unusually warm in our lower stratosphere (LS) temperature product, while the Northern Hemisphere was unusually cool. This led me to look at the tropical results for our mid-troposphere (MT) and ‘tropopause’ (TP) products, which in the tropics usually track each other. A scatterplot of them revealed September 2019 to be a clear outlier, that is, the TP temperature anomaly was too cool for the MT temperature anomaly.
So, John put a notice on his monthly global temperature update report, and I added a notice to the top of my monthly blog post, that we suspected maybe one of the two satellites we are currently using (NOAA-19 and Metop-B) had problems.
As it turns out, there were no problems with the data. Just an unusual regional weather event that produced an unusual global response.
by Cap Allon, October 3, 2019 in Electroverse
This weekend will mark the final phase of a major winter storm that ravaged the NW U.S. bringing whipping winds to the Flathead Valley, feet of snow along the Continental Divide and record-breaking/challenging temps for all.
A new all-time daily record low temperature was set in Kalispell, Montana on Wednesday, October 02 as the mercury plunged into the teens across the region.
The weather station at Glacier Park International Airport recorded a low of 19F (-7.2C) at 5 AM which busted the dates previous record low of 21F (-6.1C) set back in 1999.
Great Falls, Montana registered a record-smashing 9F (-12.8C) on Tue, Oct 01, according to the NWS, which annihilated the previous daily low of 22F (-5.6C) set back in 1959.
Additionally, areas to the northwest also saw record low daily temperatures on Tuesday as both Cut Bank and Browning comfortably surpassed their previous cold records from 1950.
And further south, crossing a few state lines into California, temperatures at Sacramento Executive Airport dropped to 42F (5.6C) early Wednesday morning, surpassing the old record of 43F (6.1C) set in 1971. Meaning that in less than a week, Sacramento has now set multiple all-time record lows; on Sunday, both downtown Sacramento and the airport set record lows of 45F (7.2C) and 46F (7.8C) respectively.
by Anthony Watts, October 3, 2019 in WUWT
Global climate trend since Dec. 1 1978: +0.13 C per decade
September Temperatures (preliminary)
Global composite temp.: +0.61 C (+1.10 °F) above seasonal average
Northern Hemisphere.: +0.64 C (+1.15 °F) above seasonal average
Southern Hemisphere.: +0.58 C (+1.00°F) above seasonal average
Tropics.: +0.60 C (+1.08°F) above seasonal average
August Temperatures (final)
Global composite temp.: +0.38 C (+0.68 °F) above seasonal average
Northern Hemisphere.: +0.33 C (+0.59 °F) above seasonal average
Southern Hemisphere.: +0.44 C (+0.79°F) above seasonal average
Tropics.: +0.45 C (+0.81 °F) above seasonal average
Notes on data released October 3, 2019 (v6.0)
September’s globally-averaged, bulk-layer atmospheric temperature anomaly of +0.61°C (+1.10°F) represented the warmest September reading of the past 41 Septembers in our satellite record. The jump from August was substantial (+0.23°C) and ranks among the largest month-to-month changes. (Several previous jumps were greater than 0.3°C however.) The warmth was global in extent with warmest September temperatures posted for both hemispheres and the tropical belt. This month-to-month heating is possibly related, at least in part, to the tropical Pacific Ocean’s loss of heat energy to the atmosphere in the recent months as El Niño conditions declined.
by Alain Préat, 3 octobre 2019 inScienceClimatEnergie
S’il est un livre, et un des premiers, à s’être penché de manière aussi détaillée sur l’évolution (récente) du climat, c’est celui d’Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie ‘Histoire du climat depuis l’an mil’, publié en 1967.
A lire ou relire ce livre de 366 pages (Figure 1), on ne peut qu’être stupéfié par l’analyse rigoureuse qui met en évidence la variabilité naturelle du climat aux échelles pluriséculaire et décennale, qui décortique et privilégie avec finesse le caractère local du climat par rapport à un climat global et fournit à partir d’indicateurs fiables des fourchettes de températures pour les variations climatiques observées à l’échelle pluriséculaire.
Figure 1. Histoire du climat depuis l’an mil, Flammarion, publié en 1967
Avant d’aborder ce sujet en détail, il semble qu’aucun modèle sorti des ‘computers’ (GIEC) n’ait été jusqu’à présent capable de rendre compte des évolutions rapportées dans le livre d’ Emmanuel Le Roy Ladurie, ces modèles se prétendent ‘globaux’, contrairement à la conclusion du livre en question qui insiste particulièrement sur le caractère local des climats. Enfin il s’agit d’un livre de 366 pages bien illustré (photographies, cartes et graphiques) dans lequel il n’est pas mentionné une seule fois ‘le poison’ des temps modernes, à savoir le CO2. L’auteur, en 1967 (faut-il le rappeler …), propose ou explore quand même des pistes pour rendre compte de la succession d’épisodes ‘froids’ et ‘chauds’, tout au long de ces 1000 années d’histoire, qui en fait débutent il y a 3500 ans (mais pour ces temps historiques plus reculés, les données fiables sont moins nombreuses).
by Roger Pielke, Sep. 30, 2019 in WUWT
I research and write about science, policy and politics.
More than a decade ago, Gwyn Prins and Steve Rayner characterized climate policy as an “auction of promises” in which politicians “vied to outbid each other with proposed emissions targets that were simply not achievable.” For instance, among Democrats competing for the presidency in 2020, several, including Joe Biden, have committed to achieving net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. Candidate Andrew Yang bid 2049, and Cory Booker topped that by offering 2045. Bernie Sanders has offered a 71% reduction by 2030.
One reason that we see this “auction of promises” is that the targets and timetables for emissions reductions are easy to state but difficult to comprehend. Here I’ll present what net-zero carbon dioxide emissions for 2050 actually means in terms of the rate of deployment of carbon-free energy and the coincident decommissioning of fossil fuel infrastructure.
To conduct this analysis I use the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, which presents data on global and national fossil fuel consumption in units called “million tons of oil equivalent” or mtoe. In 2018 the world consumed 11,743 mtoe in the form of coal, natural gas and petroleum. The combustion of these fossil fuels resulted in 33.7 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions. In order for those emissions to reach net-zero, we will have to replace about 12,000 mtoe of energy consumption expected for 2019. (I ignore so-called negative emissions technologies, which do not presently exist at scale.)
Another useful number to know is that there are 11,051 days left until January 1, 2050. To achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions globally by 2050 thus requires the deployment of >1 mtoe of carbon-free energy consumption (~12,000 mtoe/11,051 days) every day, starting tomorrow and continuing for the next 30+ years. Achieving net-zero also requires the corresponding equivalent decommissioning of more than 1 mtoe of energy consumption from fossil fuels every single day.
Another important number to consider is the expected increase in energy consumption in coming decades. The International Energy Agency currently projects that global energy consumption will increase by about 1.25% per year to 2040. That rate of increase in energy consumption would mean that the world will require another ~5,800 mtoe of energy consumption by 2050, or about another 0.5 of an mtoe per day to 2050. That brings the total needed deployment level to achieve net-zero emissions to about 1.6 mtoe per day to 2050.
The scale of the challenge to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions in 2050. Roger Pielke Jr., BP 2018
by Ron Clutz, October 2, 2019 in ScienceMatters
MASIE daily results for September show 2019 early melting followed by an early stabilizing and refreezing.
Note that 2019 started the month about 800k km2 below the 12 year average (2007 through 2018 inclusive). There was little additional loss of ice, a rise then a dip below 4 M km2, and a sharp rise ending the month. Interestingly, 2019 matched the lowest year 2012 at the start, but ended the month well ahead of both 2012 and 2007.
The table for day 273 shows distribution of ice across the regions making up the Arctic ocean.
by Prof. Samuel Furfari, 3 octobre 2019 in L’Echo
“Après avoir travaillé pendant plus de 40 ans dans le domaine, mon expérience me pousse à plaider pour une analyse factuelle et objective de la situation, même si elle peut paraître iconoclaste dans le climat actuel…’
Les feux des projecteurs de l’Assemblée générale de l’ONU s’étant éteints, il est temps de voir plus sereinement la situation en matière de politique climatique — et donc énergétique – qui menace dangereusement notre démocratie. Après avoir travaillé pendant plus de 40 ans dans le domaine, mon expérience me pousse à plaider pour une analyse factuelle et objective de la situation, même si elle peut paraître iconoclaste dans le climat actuel.
Malgré l’opinion générale, et de certains scientifiques, la science du climat est très jeune. Affirmer que “tout est connu et qu’il n’y a plus qu’à agir” est donc prématuré. Le rapport du GIEC est rempli de conditionnels. Pas de certitudes, mais des hypothèses loin d’être irrécusables, puisque le système climatique possède “une signature chaotique“.
Lorsque durant la vague de chaleur de cet été, le climatologue français Jean Jouzel annonce que la température augmentera de “trois ou quatre” degrés, il omet d’ajouter que le GIEC assortit cette hypothèse d’une probabilité de 1% et que c’est pour un maximum de 3°C et non de 4°C ou de 7°C comme on l’entend parfois.
by P. Homewood, October 2, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
Lost amid the coverage of Swedish teen activist Greta Thunberg at last week’s U.N. Global Climate Summit were the 500 international scientists, engineers and other stakeholders sounding a very different message: “There is no climate emergency.”
The European Climate Declaration, spearheaded by the Amsterdam-based Climate Intelligence Foundation [CLINTEL], described the leading climate models as “unfit” and urged UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to pursue a climate policy based on “sound science.”
“Current climate policies pointlessly and grievously undermine the economic system, putting lives at risk in countries denied access to affordable, reliable electrical energy,” said the Sept. 23 letter signed by professionals from 23 countries.
Most of the signers hailed from Europe, but there were also scientists from the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and South America.
“We urge you to follow a climate policy based on sound science, realistic economics and genuine concern for those harmed by costly but unnecessary attempts at mitigation,” the letter said.
Full story here.
by David Middleton, September 30, 2019 in WUWT
- The Eocene was, on average, 4–15 °C warmer than today.
- Atmospheric CO2 was very likely in the 450-600 ppm range.
- Modern climate models would require 4,500 ppm CO2 to simulate the Eocene temperature range;
- And/or a climate sensitivity of 4-8 °C per doubling;
- And/or “that other climate forcings were stronger than previously assumed”.
They totally missed the most obvious reason why just about every effort to gin up a paleo example of CO2-driven climate change falls apart: Atmospheric CO2 is not a primary driver of climate change over geologic time. This wouldn’t mean that it isn’t a greenhouse gas or that it has no effect on temperature. It would simply mean that it was a relatively minor climate driver, like volcanic eruptions.
At some point over the past 30 years or so, the assumption that CO2 drives modern climate change has become a paradigm. And I think we have seen a rare failure in the application of the geologic principle of Uniformitarianism.
Uniformitarianism is often incorrectly cited as the reason geologists were slow to accept plate tectonics, the impact theory of the K-Pg extinction and why the hypotheses for a Younger Dryas impact and abiotic oil are generally unaccepted. However, Uniformitarianism may be why a CO2-driven climate paradigm appears to have come into wide acceptance, at least in academia.
Figure 3a. Marine pCO2 (foram boron δ11B, alkenone δ13C), atmospheric CO2 from plant stomata (green and yellow diamonds with red outlines), Mauna Loa instrumental CO2 (thick red line) and Cenozoic temperature change from benthic foram δ18O (light gray line).
by Caron et al., 2019, 30 Sep. 2019 in NoTricksZone
A new reconstruction of Arctic (NW Greenland) sea ice cover (Caron et al., 2019) reveals modern day sea ice is present multiple months longer than almost any time in the last 8000 years…and today’s summer sea surface temperatures s are among the coldest of the Holocene.
Yet another new study (Caron et al., 2019) shows today’s Arctic sea ice cover is still quite extensive when compared to the last several thousand years, when CO2 concentrations ranged between 260 and 270 ppm.
Other new Arctic sea ice reconstructions from the north of Iceland (Harning et al., 2019) and Barents Sea (Berben et al., 2019) regions indicate a) modern sea ice extent has changed very little in the last several hundred years, or since the Little Ice Age, and b) the Early Holocene had millennial-scale periods of sea-ice-free and open water conditions, which is in stark contrast to “modern conditions” – the “highest value” or furthest extent of the sea ice record.
“[T]he PBIP25 values [proxy for sea ice presence] reach their highest value (0.87) of the record at ca. 0 cal yr BP. An increase in PBIP25 suggests a further extension in sea ice cover, reflecting Arctic Front conditions (Müller et al., 2011), most similar to modern conditions.” (Berben et al., 2019)
by P. Homewood, 28 Sep. 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
Andrew Bolt is not afraid to tell the truth about our Greta. It is a pity that the media here have not got the courage to do the same…
16-year-old climate change activist Greta Thunberg has quickly risen to become one of the world’s most prominent political leaders, inspiring a mass movement of millions seemingly out of thin air to combat the problem of global warming.
However, the young girl’s sudden ascent to prominence is not happening by chance. She has deep connections to the globalist elite and activist parents who are supporters of the far-left domestic terrorist group ANTIFA.
Thunberg’s frequent handler is Luisa-Marie Neubauer, an operative from the ONE Movement. Neubauer can be seen behind Thunberg at many of her public events.