Archives de catégorie : climate-debate

better to know...?, climate-debate, to keep an eye on...

Recent Scientific Work on Climate

by D. Siegel, December 199, 2019 in MediumWork

In this piece, I’m going to summarize some of the more recent work by scientists and statisticians on climate. It’s important to understand that …

better to know...?, climate-debate, energy and fields

China Burns Over Half Of The World’s Coal And Will Account For 50% Of Global CO2 Emissions By 2030

by K. Richard, December 19, 2019 in NoTricksZone

Today, 30% of the globe’s CO2 emissions come from China. In 10 years, China’s emissions alone will match the rest of world’s emissions combined. China continues to build hundreds of coal plants today. So why are the rest of us spending $600 billion every year on CO2 emissions mitigation?

China overtook the United States as the world’s largest CO2 emitter in 2008 (Liu et al., 2019).

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better to know...?, climate-debate, COP25

Who Is Winning The Climate Wars? (Part Two)

by F. Menton, December 18, 2019 in ClimateChangeDispatch

A few weeks ago (November 22), in a post titled “Who Is Winning The Climate Wars?”, I undertook to begin documenting the ever-growing chasm between the unhinged rhetoric of climate campaigners and the reality out there in the world.

Let’s collect a few data points over the past several weeks.

You probably know that the UN held its annual big climate conference this year in Madrid during the first two weeks of December.

That event provided the occasion for many campaigners to ramp up the volume of their claims, trying once again to stampede government representatives into agreeing to impoverish their people.

A few examples:

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The fact is that outside of some wildly guilty European countries and the loons in the U.S. Democratic Party’s far Left, fewer and fewer people pay any attention whatsoever to the absurd climate apocalypse rhetoric.

better to know...?, climate-debate

Why The Media Doesn’t Report Previous Failed Climate Doom Predictions

by Jack Hellner, December 18, 2019 in ClimateChangeDispatch

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Here is a small sample of predictions on the climate that almost all of the media regurgitate with no questions asked:

  • 2019-The UN says we only have a few years left because of warming.
  • 2008-On ABC, Good Morning America. By 2015, New York City would be underwater, milk would be $13 per gallon and gasoline would be $9 per gallon, very little of Miami would be left. (they were so close)
  • 2005-After Katrina we were told hurricanes would be more frequent and severe than ever. Instead, we had a ten-year lull in serious hurricanes hitting the U.S.
  • 1989- The UN says we only have a few years left because of warming.
  • 1970-First Earth Day. Billions would die soon because of global cooling and an ice age.
  • 1922-AP and Washington Post-Coastal cities would soon be underwater because the ice caps have melted due to global warming.

Here is a small sample of questions for politicians, bureaucrats, scientists, educators, Time person’s of the year, and people who pretend to be journalists peddling the indoctrination and pushing the agenda.

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climate-debate

How a 24-DAY heatwave on Australia’s east coast in January 1896 saw temperatures climb to 49 degrees and killed 437 people

by Freya Noble, February 14; 2017 in DailyMail

There were temperatures above 119F (48C)

It was a hot start to 1896 and by January 14, newspapers were reporting people were dying from a range of complications brought on by the extreme temperatures.

By the third week of the year, 12 infants had died from heat-related illnesses in Goulburn, NSW, alone, a report on JoNova about the heatwave revealed.

People were fleeing the cities on trains to seek refuge in the mountainous regions of the country, and one child escaping the heat ‘died at the moment the train arrived’.

Hospitals were at breaking point, and the death toll was rising.

 

How a 24 DAY heatwave in January 1896 saw temperatures hit 49 degrees and killed 437 people t is as if history is being erased. For all that we hear about recent record-breaking climate extremes, records that are equally extreme, and sometimes even more so, are ignored.
In January 1896 a savage blast “like a furnace” stretched across Australia from east to west and lasted for weeks. The death toll reached 437 people in the eastern states. Newspaper reports showed that in Bourke the heat approached 120°F (48.9°C) on three days (1)(2)(3). The maximumun at or above 102 degrees F (38.9°C) for 24 days straight.
By Tuesday Jan 14, people were reported falling dead in the streets. Unable to sleep, people in Brewarrina walked the streets at night for hours, the thermometer recording 109F at midnight. Overnight, the temperature did not fall below 103°F. On Jan 18 in Wilcannia, five deaths were recorded in one day, the hospitals were overcrowded and reports said that “more deaths are hourly expected”. By January 24, in Bourke, many businesses had shut down (almost everything bar the hotels). Panic stricken Australians were fleeing to the hills in climate refugee trains. As reported at the time, the government felt the situation was so serious that to save lives and ease the suffering of its citizens they added cheaper train services:

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climate-debate, to keep an eye on...

The List Grows – Now 100+ Scientific Papers Assert CO2 Has A Minuscule Effect On The Climate

by K. Richard, December 12, 2019 in NoTricksZone

Within the last few years, over 50 papers have been added to our compilation of scientific studies that find the climate’s sensitivity to doubled CO2 (280 ppm to 560 ppm) ranges from <0 to 1°C. When no quantification is provided, words like “negligible” are used to describe CO2’s effect on the climate. The list has now reached 106 scientific papers.

Link: 100+ Scientific Papers – Low CO2 Climate Sensitivity

A few of the papers published in 2019 are provided below:

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climate-debate

NEWLY PUBLISHED SCIENTIFIC PAPER TEARS GLOBAL WARMING AND THE IPCC TO SHREDS

by Cap Allon, December 11, 2019 in Electroverse

A scientific paper entitled “An Overview of Scientific Debate of Global Warming and Climate Change” has recently come out of the University of Karachi, Pakistan. The paper’s author, Prof. Shamshad Akhtar delves into earth’s natural temperature variations of the past 1000 years, and concludes that any modern warming trend has been hijacked by political & environmental agendas, and that the science (tackled below) has been long-ignored and at times deliberately manipulated.

The published paper –available in full HERE— sets out its intent:

Climate change is NOT a new phenomenon. The palaeo-climatic studies reveal that during the Pleistocene and Holocene periods several warm and cold periods occurred, resulting in changes of sea level and in climatic processes like the rise and fall of global average temperature and rainfall.

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climate-debate

Another New Study Finds The Canadian Arctic Was About 1-2°C Warmer During Medieval Times

by K. Richard, December 16, 2019 in NoTricksZone

Four reconstructions from the central and western High Arctic reveal July temperatures were about 1-2°C warmer than today during most of the 1st millennium and Medieval period (Tamo and Gajewski, 2019).

A few years ago, a chironomid reconstruction of Boothia Peninsula in the Canadian Arctic (Fortin and Gajewski, 2016) revealed not only were today’s temperatures the coldest of the last 7000 years, but the last 150 years “do not indicate a warming during this time.”

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climate-debate, COP25

Du succès diplomatique de la COP21 aux échecs des COP…

by Samuel Furfari, 16 décembre 2019 in ConnaissanceDesEnergies

La COP25 vient de se terminer avec, comme chaque année, une avancée minime dans la bureaucratie que créé les Nations unies. Dans le même temps, l’Union européenne affirme son intention d’atteindre la neutralité carbone en 2050, c’est-à-dire de vivre dans un équilibre entre les émissions de carbone et l’absorption desdites émissions par des puits de carbone. De l’aveu même du Parlement européen(1), aucun puits de carbone artificiel n’est toutefois en mesure d’éliminer à ce jour le carbone de l’atmosphère à l’échelle nécessaire…

Ce qui est annoncé au niveau européen – sans l’accord de la Pologne qui défend son charbon – est donc en pratique un abandon des énergies fossiles. Notons ici que les hommes politiques ne s’embarrassent pas de la nuance entre neutralité carbone et décarbonation (ne plus émettre de CO2).

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climate-debate, COP25

Madrid Summit Ends In Failure

by P. Homewood, December 16, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

A marathon UN summit wrapped up Sunday with little to show, squeezing hard-earned compromises from countries over a global warming battle plan that fell well short of what science says is needed to tackle the climate crisis.

The COP25 deal “expresses the urgent need” for new carbon cutting commitments to close the gap between current emissions and the Paris treaty goal of capping temperature at below two degrees, host country Spain said in a statement.
“Today the citizens of the  world are asking for us to move ahead faster and better, in financing, adaptation, mitigation,” Carolina Schmidt, Chilean environment minister and President of COP25, told the closing plenary.

Following a year of deadly extreme weather and weekly strikes by millions of young people demanding action, negotiations in Madrid were under pressure to send a clear signal that governments were willing to double down.
The summit — moved at the last minute from Chile due to unrest — at times teetered on the brink of collapse as rich polluters, emerging powerhouses and climate-vulnerable nations groped for common ground in the face of competing national interests.
“Based on the adopted text, there is a glimmer of hope that the heart of the Paris Agreement is still beating,” said Mohamed Adow, Director of Power Shift, referring the treaty inked in the French capital.
“But its pulse is very weak.”

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See also  COP25: N Climate Talks Collapse

See also  : My Thoughts: Post-Madrid #COP25

See also : UN Climate Summit Flops As Nations Deadlock On Hot-Button Issues

better to know...?, climate-debate

Huge Climatic Crowd Exaggeration! Claimed Size Of 500,000 Was 97% Lie… Only 15,000 In Madrid, Spanish Police Say

by P. Gosselin, December 13, 2019 in NoTricksZone

Grand media deception

So typical of climate science. Everything in and around it gets wildly exaggerated in order to feed media consumption and deceive the public. Reports are emerging that the “500,000 people” crowd awaiting Greta in Madrid was in fact as low as 15,000, according to Spanish federal police.

That would make the 500,000 claimed figure a 3000% exaggeration!

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climate-debate, COP25

#COP25 – The Neverending $tory

by Anthony Watts, December 15, 2019 in WUWT

Failure In Madrid As COP25 Climate Summit Ends In Disarray

Negotiations at a U.N. climate summit in Madrid broke down today as the two-week meeting ended without a crucial agreement on the global carbon market rules of the Paris Agreement.

After extending the two-week summit for an additional two days, the world’s countries agreed a text with vague pledges to enhance their Paris emissions reductions targets. But the watered-down text reflects a failure to agree on the key outcomes that were needed at the summit: setting a rulebook for the Paris Agreement and designing a global carbon market.

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Donald Trump has filed paperwork to remove the United States from the Paris Agreement, signed by his predecessor Barack Obama, next November – the earliest date the U.S. can leave. The U.S. absence has left the EU alone in trying to bring developing countries like China and India on board.

“COP25 has been mired in the politics of low ambition that seek to serve individual agendas in a way that is totally out of step with the urgent need for collective action,” said Eliot Whittington, director of the European Corporate Leaders Group, a collection of climate-ambitious CEOs.

Full story here

 

See also : COP25: UN’s Climate Summit Produced Net-Zero Benefits
better to know...?, climate-debate

Human Activity in China and India Dominates the Greening of Earth, NASA Study Shows

by NASA, February 11, 2019

The world is literally a greener place than it was 20 years ago, and data from NASA satellites has revealed a counterintuitive source for much of this new foliage: China and India. A new study shows that the two emerging countries with the world’s biggest populations are leading the increase in greening on land. The effect stems mainly from ambitious tree planting programs in China and intensive agriculture in both countries.

The greening phenomenon was first detected using satellite data in the mid-1990s by Ranga Myneni of Boston University and colleagues, but they did not know whether human activity was one of its chief, direct causes. This new insight was made possible by a nearly 20-year-long data record from a NASA instrument orbiting the Earth on two satellites. It’s called the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, or MODIS, and its high-resolution data provides very accurate information, helping researchers work out details of what’s happening with Earth’s vegetation, down to the level of 500 meters, or about 1,600 feet, on the ground.

A world map showing the trend in annual average leaf area, in percent per decade (2000-2017)
The world is a greener place than it was 20 years ago, as shown on this map, where areas with the greatest increase in foliage are indicated in dark green. Data from a NASA instrument orbiting Earth aboard two satellites show that human activity in China and India dominate this greening of the planet.
Credits: NASA Earth Observatory

Taken all together, the greening of the planet over the last two decades represents an increase in leaf area on plants and trees equivalent to the area covered by all the Amazon rainforests. There are now more than two million square miles of extra green leaf area per year, compared to the early 2000s – a 5% increase.

“China and India account for one-third of the greening, but contain only 9% of the planet’s land area covered in vegetation – a surprising finding, considering the general notion of land degradation in populous countries from overexploitation,” said Chi Chen of the Department of Earth and Environment at Boston University, in Massachusetts, and lead author of the study.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Barrels of ancient Antarctic air aim to track history of rare gas

by University of Washington, December 13, 2019 in ScienceDaily

An Antarctic field campaign last winter led by the US and Australia has successfully extracted some of the largest samples of air dating from the 1870s until today. Researchers will use the samples to look for changes in the molecules that scrub the atmosphere of methane and other gases.

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“It’s probably the most extreme atmospheric chemistry you can do from ice core samples, and the logistics were also extreme,” said Peter Neff, a postdoctoral researcher with dual appointments at the UW and at the University of Rochester.

But the months the team spent camped on the ice at the snowy Law Dome site paid off.

“This is, to my knowledge, the largest air sample from the 1870s that anyone’s ever gotten,” Neff said. His 10 weeks camped on the ice included minus-20 degrees Fahrenheit temperatures and several snowstorms, some of which he shared from Antarctica via Twitter.

Air from deeper ice cores drilled in Antarctica and Greenland has provided a record of carbon dioxide and methane, two greenhouse gases, going back thousands of years. While carbon dioxide has a lifetime of decades to centuries, an even more potent gas, methane, has a lifetime of just nine or 10 years.

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climate-debate

CMIP5 Model Atmospheric Warming 1979-2018: Some Comparisons to Observations

by Roy Spencer, December 12, 2019 in WUWT

I keep getting asked about our charts comparing the CMIP5 models to observations, old versions of which are still circulating, so it could be I have not been proactive enough at providing updates to those. Since I presented some charts at the Heartland conference in D.C. in July summarizing the latest results we had as of that time, I thought I would reproduce those here.

The following comparisons are for the lower tropospheric (LT) temperature product, with separate results for global and tropical (20N-20S). I also provide trend ranking “bar plots” so you can get a better idea of how the warming trends all quantitatively compare to one another (and since it is the trends that, arguably, matter the most when discussing “global warming”).

From what I understand, the new CMIP6 models are exhibiting even more warming than the CMIP5 models, so it sounds like when we have sufficient model comparisons to produce CMIP6 plots, the discrepancies seen below will be increasing.

Global Comparisons

First is the plot of global LT anomaly time series, where I have averaged 4 reanalysis datasets together, but kept the RSS and UAH versions of the satellite-only datasets separate. (Click on images to get full-resolution versions).

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climate-debate

GLOBAL TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY FOR TWO DECADES

by Climate Science, December 13,  2019

Global temperatures have been holding nearly steady for almost two decades according to satellites from the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) and University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH).6You will never see that in the mass media.

2018 is the 3rd year in a row of cooling global temperatures – So far 2018 was the third year in a row that the globe has cooled off from its El Nino peak set in 2015.

Norwegian Professor Ole Humlum explained in his 2018 “State of the Climate Report”: “After the warm year of 2016, temperatures last year (in 2018) continued to fall back to levels of the so-called warming ‘pause’ of 2000-2015. There is no sign of any acceleration in global temperature, hurricanes or sea-level rise. These empirical observations show no sign of acceleration whatsoever.”

While 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2016 were declared the “hottest years” or “near -hottest,”  based on heavily altered surface data by global warming proponents, a closer examination revealed the claims were “based on year-to-year temperature data that differs by only a few HUNDREDTHS of a degree to tenths of a degree Fahrenheit – differences that were within the margin of error in the data.” 7

MIT climate scientist Dr. Richard Lindzen ridiculed “hottest year” claims. “The uncertainty here is tenths of a degree. It’s just nonsense. This is a very tiny change period,” Lindzen said. “If you can adjust temperatures to 2/10ths of a degree, it means it wasn’t certain to 2/10ths of a degree.”

In 2015, the Associated Press was forced to issue a “clarification” on “hottest year” claims, stating in part: “The story also reported that 2014 was the hottest year on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA, but did not include the caveat that other recent years had average temperatures that were almost as high  – and they all fall within a margin of error that lessens the certainty that any one of the years was the hottest.”

Climatologist Pat Michaels explained that, in any case, the world’s temperature “should be near the top of the record given the record only begins in the late 19th century when the surface temperature was still reverberating from the Little Ice Age.”

“Hottest year” claims are purely political statements designed to persuade the public that the government needs to take action on man-made climate change. In addition, the claims of “hottest year” are based on surface data only dating back to the late 19th century, and also ignore the temperature revisions made by NASA and NOAA that have enhanced the warming trend by retroactively cooling the past. 8

6 The Pause Lives on: Global Satellites: 2016 not Statistically Warmer than 1998 – Climatologist Dr. Roy Spencer – January 4, 2017
7 Dr. David Whitehouse noted the ‘temperature pause never went away’ – January 19, 2017
8 Climate analyst Tony Heller – Real Climate Science – February 14, 2017

climate-debate

3000-Year-Old Trees Excavated Under Icelandic Glacier

by P. Homewood, December 12, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

Ancient tree stumps found under Breiðamerkurjökull glacier in Southeast Iceland are confirmed to be roughly 3,000 years old. RÚV reports.

A specialist believes the remarkably well-preserved stumps were part of a massive forest that disappeared after a long period of a warm climate.

One of the tree stumps was found in Breiðamerkursandur a couple of months ago, and once it was being salvaged a second, larger one was found. The smaller one was sent for examination while the larger will be examined at a later time.

Examinations revealed that the tree stump died very quickly at 89-years-old in the month of June. Nearby sediments and data suggest that the glacier itself was the culprit.

The tree stumps are from a period when Iceland was covered in forests. Even though 9th century Norse settlers reported vast forests across the country, it is believed that 3,000 years ago, the forests were much larger, even reaching the highlands. Approximately 500 BC, the climate became colder and glaciers began to form, destroying parts of the forests.

The 3,000-year-old remains of the forest are very well preserved and will be researched thoroughly. “It is absolutely incredible just how well preserved this tree stump is, having been buried under a glacier and that it still looks so whole, as opposed to being all wrinkled up like many of the specimens we have found.” Once examinations conclude, the water will be extracted from the tree stump and it will be filled with wax instead, allowing it to be exhibited.

https://www.icelandreview.com/news/3000-year-old-trees-excavated-under-glacier/

Discovering ancient forests under receding glaciers is not confined to Iceland. Remains of trees dating back to the Middle Ages have been found under the Juneau and Exit Glaciers in Alaska, as well under glaciers in Patagonia.

Tree stumps have also turned up under Swiss glaciers, carbon dated to about 4000 years ago.

The simple reality is that glaciers worldwide expanded enormously during the Little Ice Age, arguably to their greatest extent since the Ice Age. Despite decades of retreat since the 19thC, they are still abnormally large by historical standards.

climate-debate

The 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

by P. Homewood, December 11, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

The Atlantic hurricane season has now officially ended, so let’s check the numbers.

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E11.html

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/season.asp?storm_season=2019

There have been six hurricanes in total, including three major ones, Dorian, Humberto and Lorenzo. Coincidentally both numbers are the same as the average since 1950.

According to NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division, many hurricanes were missed in the earlier decades. Systematic aircraft reconnaissance began in 1944, but this only covered half of the Atlantic basin, until daily satellite monitoring started in 1966.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Victoria Secrets Exposed…More Falsehoods By Spiegel, Guardian… Victoria Falls Variability Nothing To Do With CO2.

by P. Gosselin, December 11, 2019 in NoTricksZone

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Not CO2 related

A little later in the report we also find a flow diagram for the Victoria Falls:

Figure: Water flow rate-volume at the Victoria Falls an den 1907-2006. Source: Beilfuss 2012 (immediately pdf)

We see a strong variability from year to year. On a scale of several decades, the period 1940-1980 is characterized by particularly high flow rates. The early 20th century was rather dry. A coupling to the 60-year-old ocean cycle offers itself. The Pacific is far away, but the wet Zambezi phase fits quite well into the negative PDO:

igure: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Source: By Giorgiogp2 – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=13297650

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climate-debate

Snow Record – Submerged Alps with extraordinary accumulations

by Robert, December 7, 2019 in IceAgeNow

In the face of Global Warming we see scenarios from the ice age.

The Alps were submerged in snow, with truly dramatic accumulations up to 1,500m above sea level, especially considering that we are still at the end of November.

Here are the incredible data:

295cm of snow on the ground at Rifugio Gastaldi – Balme (2.659m asl),
263cm at Macugnaga Rifugio Zamboni (2.075m),
239cm at Rifugio Vaccarone – Giaglione (2.745) m),
227cm at Lago Agnel – Ceresole Reale (2.304m),
222cm at Lago Dietro La Torre – Usseglio (2.360m) and Bocchetta Delle Pisse – Alagna Valsesia (2.410m),
197cm at Larecchio – Montecrestese (1.860m) and Lemon Pancani – Limone Piemonte (1.875m),
191cm in Formazza (2.453m),
188cm in the Del Chiotas Dam – Entracque (2.020m),
185cmin Malciaussia – Usseglio (1,800m),
172cm at Passo Del Moro – Macugnaga (2.820m), 169cm in Clot Of Soma – Pragelato (2.150m),
166cm in Alpe Veglia – Varzo (1.740m),
164cm in Grange Martina – Giaglione (1.967m),
163cm Pian Giasset – Crissolo (2.150m) and Lago Pilone – Sauze D’oulx (2.280m),
156cm Rifugio Mondovi – Roccaforte Mondovi (1.760m),
152cm at Sommeiller – Bardonecchia (2.981m), 150cm in Pian Delle Baracche – Sampeyre (2.135m),
137cm in Alpe Devero – Baceno (1.634m),
129cm in Camparient – Trivero (1.515m),
124cm in Sestriere (2.020m).
Per approfondire http://www.meteoweb.eu/2019/11/meteo-alpi-sommerse-neve-piemonte-sestriere/1350156/#U03AfALMXOVSWFCe.99

See incredible photos:
http://www.meteoweb.eu/2019/11/meteo-alpi-sommerse-neve-piemonte-sestriere/1350156/#1

climate-debate

A Geological Perspective on Sea Level Rise Acceleration

by David Middleton, December 9, 2019 in WUWT

There have been at least three recent peer-reviewed papers asserting an anthropogenic acceleration in the rate of sea level rise (SLR): Church & White, 2006 (CW06), Church & White, 2011 (CW11) and Nerem et al., 2018 (N18). N18 only covers the satellite era (since 1993) and might actually be correct, albeit irrelevant. The primary culprits in the SLR acceleration scam are CW06 and CW11. Two other recent peer-reviewed papers clearly shoot down the notion of a recent anthropogenic acceleration: Jevrejeva et al., 2008 (J08) and Jevrejeva et al., 2014 (J14). This post will focus on CW11 (updated through 2013) and J14.

J08 and J14 indicate that the acceleration, to the extent there is one, started 150-200 years ago, consistent with the end of neoglaciation and that a quasi-periodic fluctuation (~60-yr cycle) is present. CW06 and CW11 also note the 19th Century acceleration; but also assert a more recent acceleration, presumably due to anthropogenic global warming. This SLR acceleration is, at worst, innocuous.

Figure 1. Jevrejeva et al., 2014 (red) and Church & White, 2011 (green).
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better to know...?, climate-debate

TRIBUNE. Pourquoi les affirmations catastrophistes sur le climat sont fausses

by M. Schellenberger, 10 décembre 2019 in LePoint

Pour l’écologiste pragmatique Michael Shellenberger, les déclarations apocalyptiques s’avèrent scientifiquement erronées et politiquement contre-productives.

Ces dernières semaines, les journalistes et les défenseurs de l’environnement ont fait un certain nombre de prédictions apocalyptiques sur l’impact du changement climatique. L’écologiste Bill McKibben a suggéré qu’en Australie, les incendies causés par le climat avaient rendu les koalas « pratiquement éteints ». Extinction Rebellion affirme : « Des milliards de gens mourront » et « la vie sur Terre est en train de s’éteindre ». Vice magazine soutient que « l’effondrement de la civilisation a peut-être déjà commencé ».

Peu ont plus attiré l’attention sur cette menace que la militante étudiante Greta Thunberg et la représentante démocrate Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, sponsor du Green New Deal. Cette dernière prétend que « le monde va s’écrouler dans douze ans si nous ne nous attaquons pas au changement climatique ». Dans son nouveau livre, Thunberg affirme : « Vers 2030, nous serons en situation de déclencher une réaction en chaîne irréversible hors du contrôle humain, qui conduira à la fin de la civilisation telle que nous la connaissons. »

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See also here: At UN Climate Summit, Alarmists Put Dogma Over Science

climate-debate

Climate Models Have Not Improved in 50 Years

by David Middleton, December 6, 2019 in WUWT

The accuracy of the failed models improved when they adjusted them to fit the observations… Shocking.

The AGU and Wiley currently allow limited access to Hausfather et al., 2019. Of particular note are figures 2 and 3. I won’t post the images here due to the fact that it is a protected limited access document.

Figure 2: Model Failure

Figure 2 has two panels. The upper panel depicts comparisons of the rates of temperature change of the observations vs the models, with error bars that presumably represent 2σ (2 standard deviations). According to my Mark I Eyeball Analysis, of the 17 model scenarios depicted, 6 were above the observations’ 2σ (off the chart too much warming), 4 were near the top of the observations’ 2σ (too much warming), 2 were below the observations’ 2σ (off the chart too little warming), 2 were near the bottom of the observations’ 2σ (too little warming), and 3 were within 1σ (in the ballpark) of the observations.

Figure 2. Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response

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climate-debate

2019 the Third Least-Chilly in the Satellite Temperature Record

by Roy Spencer, December 6, 2019 in WUWT

It’s that time of year again, when we are subjected to exaggerated climate claims such as in this Forbes article, 2019 Wraps Up The Hottest Decade In Recorded Human History. Given that the global average surface temperature is about 60 deg. F, and most of the climate protesters we see in the news are wearing more clothing than the average Key West bar patron, I would think that journalists striving for accuracy would use a more accurate term than “hottest”.

So, I am announcing that in our 41-year record of global satellite measurements of the lower atmosphere, 2019 will come in as 3rd least-chilly.

For the decade 2010-2019, the satellite temperatures averaged only 0.15 C higher than in the previous decade (1990-1999). That’s less than a third of a degree F, which no one would even notice over 10 years.

If you are wondering how your neck of the woods has fared this year, the latest year-to-date plot of 2019 temperature departures from the 30-year average (1981-2010) shows the usual pattern of above- and below-normal, with little visual indication that the global average for 2019 is now running 0.36 deg. C above normal.

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