Archives de catégorie : climate-debate

climate-debate

Impacts and risks of “realistic” global warming projections for the 21st century

by N. Scafetta,  March 2024, in GeoscienceFrontier

Highlights

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The IPCC AR6 assessment of likely impacts and risks by 21st-century climate changes is highly uncertain.

  • •

    Most climate models, however, run too hot, and the SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios are unlikely.

  • •

    New climate change projections for the 21st century were generated using best-performing climate models,

  • •

    Empirical climate modeling of natural cycles, and calibration on lower troposphere temperature data.

  • •

    Net-zero emission policies are not necessary because SSP2-4.5 is sufficient to limit climate change hazards to manageable levels.

  • …
climate-debate

Strong El Nino Conditions Prevails at The End of January 2024

by A. Patel, Feb 12, 2024 in WUWT

However, This El Nino Not Expected to Be as Strong As 1982-83 Or 1997-98 Or 2015-16 El Nino

Enso Status on 10th February 2024

Ashok Patel’s Analysis & Commentary :

The classification of El Niño events, including the strength labels, is somewhat subjective and can vary among meteorological and climate agencies. There isn’t a strict rule defining the specific number of consecutive Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) values that must be 2.0°C or above to categorize an El Niño event as “Super Strong.”

In general, a strong El Niño event is often characterized by ONI values reaching or exceeding +2.0°C. A Super Strong El Niño would typically involve sustained ONI value of +2.0°C or more. Hence for ease of understanding and comparing the strength of various Strong El Nino events, I propose to define an El Nino as a Super Strong event if  three consecutive ONI index is +2.0°C or more.

A brief history of the past El Nino events with the number of consecutive ONI +2.0°C or above:

In the year 1965 the highest ONI index during that El Nino were SON +2.0°C, OND +2.0°C

In the year 1972-73 the highest ONI index during that El Nino were OND +2.1°C NDJ +2.1°C DJF

In the year 1982-83 the highest ONI index during that El Nino were SON +2.0°C, OND +2.2°C NDJ +2.2°C DJF +2.2°C

In the year 1997-98 the highest ONI index during that El Nino were ASO +2.1°C SON +2.3°C, OND +2.4°C NDJ +2.4°C DJF +2.2°C

In the year 2015-16 the highest ONI index during that El Nino were ASO +2.2°C SON +2.4°C, OND +2.6°C NDJ +2.6°C DJF +2.5°C JFM +2.1°C

ONI Data has been obtained from CPC – NWS – NOAA available here

There have been three Super Strong El Nino events from 1950 onwards till date. The first such event was 1982-83 Super Strong El Nino with 4 consecutive ONI +2.0°C or above with highest ONI of +2.2°C twice. The second Super Strong El Nino event was 1997-98 with five consecutive ONI +2.0°C or above with highest ONI of +2.4°C twice. The third Super Strong El Nino event was 2015-16 with six consecutive ONI +2.0°C or above with highest ONI of +2.6°C twice. The current forecast and analysis does not support the 2023-24 El Nino to become a Super Strong El Nino.

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climate-debate

Calls for Met Office to retract false ‘more intense storms’ claim

by GWPF, Feb 13, 2024

London, 13 February – The UK Met Office has been accused of seriously misleading the public about climate-driven storms in the UK.

On 22nd January, the day after Storm Isha, a senior meteorologist from the Met Office stated on BBC Radio 5 Live Breakfast that “when we see these storms they are more intense and that’s down to climate change”.

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However, after being challenged through a FOI request to provide evidence for the claim that storms have become more intense, the Met Office was forced to admit they have no such evidence.

In its response, the Met Office also referred to its own UK Storm activity report which clearly states that “there is no compelling trend in maximum gust speeds recorded in the UK since 1969.”

We call on the Met Office to publish a full retraction of what is evidently a false and misleading claim.

NOTES FOR EDITORS

Met Office: Recent trends and future projections of UK storm activity: “This report found that there is no compelling trend in maximum gust speeds recorded in the UK since 1969, measured as the number of days more than 20 weather stations recorded gust speeds above 40, 50 or 60 knots.”

Met Office: State of the UK Climate 2022 (page 47):  “Storm Eunice [in 2022] was the most severe storm to affect England and Wales since February 2014, but even so, these storms of the 1980s and 1990s were very much more severe.”

Paul Homewood: Met Office cannot provide evidence for “more intense storms” claim

better to know...?, climate-debate, Cooling

New Study Finds No Evidence Of A CO2-Driven Warming Signal In 60 Years Of IR Flux Data

by K. Richard, Jan 11, 2024 in NoTricksZone

“The real atmosphere does not follow the GHG [greenhouse gas] GE [greenhouse effect] hypothesis of the IPCC.” – Miskolczi, 2023

CO2 increased from 310 ppm to 385 ppm (24%) during the 60 years from 1948 to 2008. Observations indicate this led to a negative radiative imbalance of -0.75 W/m². In other words, increasing CO2 delivered a net cooling effect – the opposite of what the IPCC has claimed should happen (Miskolczi, 2023).

Also, there is “no correlation with time and the strong signal of increasing atmospheric CO2 content in any time series,” which affirms “the atmospheric CO2 increase cannot be the reason for global warming.”

“The Arrhenius type greenhouse effect of the CO2 and other non-condensing GHGs is an incorrect hypothesis and the CO2 greenhouse effect based global warming hypothesis is also an artifact without any theoretical or empirical footing.”

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climate-debate

Hottest 12 Months for 125,000 Years Claim Lacks Any Scientific Evidence

by C. Morrison, Jan 7, 2023 in TheDailySceptic, 

Last year humanity lived through the hottest 12 months in at least 125,000 years, reported an hysterical CNN, a frame of mind replicated throughout much of the mainstream media. Scientists have compared 2023’s “climate change fallout” to a “disaster movie”, added the U.S. cable news channel. All poppycock, needless to say, with a political Net Zero motive, and little if any scientific evidence to back it up. Accurate temperature records barely started before the 20th century, and recent measurements by fixed thermometers have been heavily corrupted by growing urban heat. It is in fact possible using proxy measurements to get a good idea of general temperature movements over the last 125,000 years. All the evidence points to periods of much higher temperatures, notably between 10,000 to 5,000 years ago. The latest science paper examining this trend has just been published, and it points to summer temperatures at least 1.5°C higher around 5,000 years ago in the eastern Mediterranean, at a time when civilisation was developing rapidly.

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climate and geology, climate-debate

Mount Pinatubo eruption caused the major East China flood in 1991

by C. Xing & F. Liu, Jan 2023 in InnovativeGeoscience

The devastating flood of 2020 along the Yangtze River serves as a painful reminder of the 1991 East China’s largest flood. The latter event profoundly impacted the Yangtze-Huaihe River basins (YHRBs), causing extensive damage to both human lives and property1. The flood engulfed numerous villages and cities across seven provinces in East China, affecting over 15,000,000 hectares of farmland and approximately 100 million people. In response, millions of individuals in Anhui and Jiangsu provinces were forced to evacuate, with some seeking refuge on the banks of the Huaihe River. Gaining a comprehensive understanding of the contributing factors to this historically significant flood will enhance our ability to predict the East Asian summer monsoon and mitigate related climate disasters. Over the past three decades, this pursuit has been a persistent challenge1,2,3.

The 1991 East China flood was attributed to prominent intraseasonal oscillations, as evidenced by three episodes of heavy rain occurring from mid-May to mid-July over the YHRBs2, primarily linked to the persistent Meiyu front during early July1. The stable western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), which plays a crucial role in influencing the East Asian monsoon by altering the convergence of southeasterly and southwesterly, provided substantial support for the prolonged existence of the Meiyu front in 19911; However, the reason behind the prolonged stability of the WPSH during that specific period remains a mystery.

No internal climate variability modes were reported to be in their most flood-favorable conditions during 1991, and the effect of external forcing on this flood disaster was not taken into consideration at all. Half a month before the flood, the Mount Pinatubo (located at 120.4ºE, 15.1ºN) in Luzon, the Philippines, explosively erupted on June 15th, 1991, which later is known as one of the strongest volcanic eruption in the past century. This eruption released approximately 20 Tg of SO2 into the tropical stratosphere4, which can form stratospheric aerosol that impact the global radiative balance. The stratospheric volcanic aerosol acts as a major forcing on the climate by cooling the global surface and slowing down the water cycle on annual to decadal timescales5. However, it remains unclear whether explosive volcanic eruptions have short-term impacts on the climate, particularly on the intraseasonal timescale.

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climate-debate

UK Rainfall In 2023

by P. Homewood, Jan 7 ,2024 in NotaLotofPeopleKonwThat

image

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/monthly/HadEWP_monthly_totals.txt

Last year was a wet one in England & Wales, the 7th wettest on record. (The UK series has a similar result).

We routinely hear claims that the climate is wetter because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, (while also being told we will get more droughts!). However the fact that we have had similarly wet years in the distant past, such as 1768, 1852, 1872, 1877, 1882, 1903 and 1960, rather demolishes that argument.

The major factor behind last year’s high rainfall was that the number of rain days was also one of the highest on record since 1931, when Met Office daily data begins. In short, annual rainfall was high because of weather, not climate.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Rising Maximum Temperatures

by K. Hansen, Jan5, 2024 in WUWT

Roger Pielke Jr. recently posted a piece at The Honest Broker titled:  “U.S. Climate Extremes: 2023 Year in Review   – A Very Normal Year” – which was subsequently reposted at WUWT.

In that post, he uses this graphic:

(I have increased the size of the titles for clarity – kh)

It is easy to see that the trends of both the Maximum January temperatures and the Maximum July temperatures have been rising — more so for January temperatures than July — though this is somewhat obscured by the different scales of the two graphs.   [Caveat:  The temperature record on which this graph is based is not scientifically reliable before about 1940.] Also, one has to be careful to note what exactly they are really measuring.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

CET Daily Temperatures

by P. Homewood, Jan 4, 2023 in NotaLotofPeople KnowThat

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_max2023.html

I want to focus on the end of year CET graph, which gives the lie to the extreme temperature myth often bandied around.

The graph plots daily max CET temperatures, against the background of the percentiles of the 1961-90 climatology. The Met Office should of course be using 1991-2020 as the baseline, so the climatology should be shifted upwards by a half a degree or so. But we’ll leave that aside.

We can legitimately regard anything between the 5% and 95% bands as being “weather”. Only days outside this might be regarded as “extreme”. (I would actually argue anything outside 1% and 99%).

We see that apart from a handful of days, every day was within that “normal weather” band.

In a year there will be 36 days outside of that band on average. The Met Office do not supply the data for these percentiles to enable the number of days to be calculated, but this year it does not look to be excessive in terms of that average.

Moreover, although there were a few days in September which set record highs for that particularly day, none were records for the month as a whole. The highest temperature last September was 28.9C, but the record for September stands at 31.5C in 1906:

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Of course most of the year had temperatures above the average. But we have a wide range of weather in Britain. We can have mild, wet winters, and cold, snowy ones; we can have cool, wet summers and sunny hot ones. But these are weather events, not climate, and they are dependent on weather patterns, the jet stream and so on.

A predominance of warmer weather is not climate change.

better to know...?, climate-debate

No Trends In Extratropical Cyclones – IPCC

by  P. Homewood, Jan 2, 2024 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

image

We constantly hear that storms are getting worse because of global warming. These claims are not referring to hurricanes and tropical storms, but the sort of storm which hits the UK several times every winter.

These are known as Extratropical Storms. The clown Jim Dale made this very claim again this week after Strom Gerrit. According to him, it is all to do with warm oceans, which pep up these storms. If this was correct, there would never be any storms in the Arctic. But claims such as this show a basic misunderstanding of meteorology; astonishing for somebody who claims to be a meteorologist!

NOAA explain the difference between tropical and extratropical cyclones (ETCs):

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climate-debate

61 NoTricksZone Articles On Studies, Datasets From 2023 Show Climate Models Are Rubbish

by P.  Gosselin,  Ec 31, 2023 in NoTricksZone

Most climate models are worse than garbage, a number of real measurements, peer-reviewed studies and data show. Their phony results are mainly used to spread fear. 

 

The outputs of model simulations often get confused by the media and public as real measurement results. But often they are generated nefariously to promote panic.

Recall the pandemic models showing showing 100s of millions would die if we didn’t lockdown. In reality COVID 19 was no worse than a regular flu.

What follows are 61 NTZ posts from 2023 that show that climate model results have nothing to do with reality. Their outputs are garbage. 

1. Typhoons are supposed to be getting more frequent and worse. They are not.

2. Sea levels rise is accelerating, models say. Fact: at many places they are falling.

3. It’s the hottest in 125,000 years. Wrong, e.g. it was fore example 4-7°C warmer in Austria 2000 years ago.

4. CO2 is the main driver. It is not. Models severely underestimate clouds.

5. Water vapor causes warming. But here’s a study that suggests the opposite.

6. CO2 leads to warming and drought. But the opposite is true: greening and cooling.

7. Winters in Tokyo are warming, the models tell us. But JMA data in fact show they are cooling.

8. Models show rapidly rising sea levels. But tide gauges and studies show it’s not true.

9. Models say Venice is gonna sink. It’s not happening, a study shows.

10. Models say that Holocene sea levels are higher than ever today. But mid-Holocene levels were 1-3 meters higher.

 

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51. Remember how the models predicted Greenland would melt rapidly and cause sea levels to rise by meters? Well, since 1992, it has only contributed 1.2 CENTIMETERS!

52. Oops, also volcanic activity got neglected by the models too.

53. Two Portuguese scientists (Khmelinskii and Woodcock, 2023) identify at least 8 assumptions in the “greenhouse gas hypothesis” that lack scientific validation.  Models can’t work if the assumptions are grossly false.

54. Models got the aerosol forcings wrong too. ..10 times larger.

55. Antarctica has cooled. Models are wrong on that, too.

56. Models have been failing for 4 decades. Remember above how we remarked they worked better in the 1980s.

57. Modern sea ice extent is nearly the highest it’s been in 9000 years.

58. The rise of CO2 over the past 120 years hasn’t really altered the greenhouse effect. Someone tell the modelers.

59. A new paper finds that the models have it backwards: warming drives CO2!

60. Definitely today is NOT the warmest its been in 125,000 years, not even 10,000 years.

61. German Helmholtz UFZ ground moisture models insist the ground is still dry, even after weeks of heavy rains and floods.

climate-debate

Is the Low Snowpack this Year a Sign of Global Warming?

C. Mass, Jan1, 2024 in WUWT

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El Nino

We are in a very strong El Nino and such events are highly correlated with warm winter temperatures and poor snowpack over the region.  Sea surface temperatures have been about 2C above normal over the past two months (see below).

According to NOAA/NWS, El Nino years are associated with warmer than normal October-November-Decembers (see below for a local climate division)

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climate-debate

Junk Science Alert: Met Office Set to Ditch Actual Temperature Data in Favour of Model Predictions

by C. Morrison, Dec 23, 2023 in WUWT

The alternative climate reality that the U.K. Met Office seeks to occupy has moved a step nearer with news that a group of its top scientists has proposed adopting a radical new method of calculating climate change. The scientific method of calculating temperature trends over at least 30 years should be ditched, and replaced with 10 years of actual data merged with model projections for the next decade. The Met Office undoubtedly hopes that it can point to the passing of the 1.5°C ‘guard-rail’ in short order. This is junk science-on-stilts, and is undoubtedly driven by the desire to push the Net Zero collectivist agenda.

In a paper led by Professor Richard Betts, the Head of Climate Impacts at the Met Office, it is noted that the target of 1.5°C warming from pre-industrial levels is written into the 2016 Paris climate agreement and breaching it “will trigger questions on what needs to be done to meet the agreement’s goal”. Under current science-based understandings, the breaching of 1.5°C during anomalous warm spells of a month or two, as happened in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020 and 2023, does not count. Even going above 1.5°C for a year in the next five years would not count. A new trend indicator is obviously needed. The Met Office proposes adding just 10 years’ past data to forecasts from a climate model programmed to produce temperature rises of up to 3.2°C during the next 80 years. By declaring an average 20-year temperature based around the current year, this ‘blend’ will provide ”an instantaneous indicator of current warming”.

It will do no such thing. In the supplementary notes to the paper, the authors disclose that they have used a computer model ‘pathway’, RCP4.5, that allows for a possible rise in temperatures of up to 3.2°C within 80 years. Given that global warming has barely risen by much more than 0.2°C over the last 25 years, this is a ludicrous stretch of the imagination. Declaring the threshold of 1.5°C, a political target set for politicians, has been passed based on these figures and using this highly politicised method would indicate that reality is rapidly departing from the Met Office station.

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climate-debate

Hottest In 125,000 Years?

by P. Homewood, Dec 26, 2023 in WUWT

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/this-year-virtually-certain-be-warmest-125000-years-eu-scientists-say-2023-11-08/

Just about all of the media have been peddling the “Hottest for 125,000 years” claim, which suggests a very concerted effort by the climate establishment in the run up to COP28.

The claim is self evident and baseless nonsense for a number of good reasons:

  • There is no such thing as “a global average temperature”
  • Even now we have very sparse coverage of temperature measurements. Prior to satellites, we had virtually no data  outside of the US, Europe and a few other built up areas
  • The temperature record we do have is thoroughly corrupted by UHI, and only dates back to the late 19thC
  • Natural variations, including ENSO, volcanic activity etc, can easily cause temperature swings of a degree Celsius from year to year, and decade to decade. But historical proxies don’t have the fine resolution to pick these up, they merely give an idea of average temperatures over decades and even centuries. Consequently you cannot compare one year now with the general climate of, say, 2000 years ago.

But forget about all of these theoretical objections, because the climatic evidence we do have is overwhelming, and it tells us that the climate has been much warmer than now for most of the last 10000 years, since the end of the ice age.

Here are ten powerful, incontrovertible pieces of evidence:

1) Greenland

 

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Climate Science Double-Speak

by K. Hansen, 2017 in WUWT

A quick note for the amusement of the bored but curious.

While in search of something else, I ran across this enlightening page from the folks at UCAR/NCAR [The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research/The National Center for Atmospheric Research — see pdf here for more information]:

“What is the average global temperature now?”

We are first reminded that “Climate scientists prefer to combine short-term weather records into long-term periods (typically 30 years) when they analyze climate, including global averages.”  As we know,  these 30-year periods are referred to as “base periods” and different climate groups producing data sets and graphics of Global Average Temperatures often use differing base periods, something that has to be carefully watched for when comparing results between groups.

Then things get more interesting, in that we get an actual number for Global Average Surface Temperature:

“Today’s global temperature is typically measured by how it compares to one of these past long-term periods. For example, the average annual temperature for the globe between 1951 and 1980 was around 57.2 degrees Fahrenheit (14 degrees Celsius). In 2015, the hottest year on record, the temperature was about 1.8 degrees F (1 degree C) warmer than the 1951–1980 base period.”

Quick minds see immediately that 1.8°F warmer than 57.2°F is actually 59°F [or 15° C]  which they simply could have said.

UCAR/NCAR goes on to “clarify”:

“Since there is no universally accepted definition for Earth’s average temperature, several different groups around the world use slightly different methods for tracking the global average over time, including:

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies

    NOAA National Climatic Data Center

    UK Met Office Hadley Centre”

We are told, in plain language, that there is no accepted definition for Earth’s average temperature, but assured that it is scientifically tracked by the several groups listed.

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climate-debate

Junk Science Alert: Met Office Set to Ditch Actual Temperature Data in Favour of Model Predictions

by C. Morrison, Dec 24, 2023 in WUWT

The alternative climate reality that the U.K. Met Office seeks to occupy has moved a step nearer with news that a group of its top scientists has proposed adopting a radical new method of calculating climate change. The scientific method of calculating temperature trends over at least 30 years should be ditched, and replaced with 10 years of actual data merged with model projections for the next decade. The Met Office undoubtedly hopes that it can point to the passing of the 1.5°C ‘guard-rail’ in short order. This is junk science-on-stilts, and is undoubtedly driven by the desire to push the Net Zero collectivist agenda.

In a paper led by Professor Richard Betts, the Head of Climate Impacts at the Met Office, it is noted that the target of 1.5°C warming from pre-industrial levels is written into the 2016 Paris climate agreement and breaching it “will trigger questions on what needs to be done to meet the agreement’s goal”. Under current science-based understandings, the breaching of 1.5°C during anomalous warm spells of a month or two, as happened in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020 and 2023, does not count. Even going above 1.5°C for a year in the next five years would not count. A new trend indicator is obviously needed. The Met Office proposes adding just 10 years’ past data to forecasts from a climate model programmed to produce temperature rises of up to 3.2°C during the next 80 years. By declaring an average 20-year temperature based around the current year, this ‘blend’ will provide ”an instantaneous indicator of current warming”.

It will do no such thing. In the supplementary notes to the paper, the authors disclose that they have used a computer model ‘pathway’, RCP4.5, that allows for a possible rise in temperatures of up to 3.2°C within 80 years. Given that global warming has barely risen by much more than 0.2°C over the last 25 years, this is a ludicrous stretch of the imagination. Declaring the threshold of 1.5°C, a political target set for politicians, has been passed based on these figures and using this highly politicised method would indicate that reality is rapidly departing from the Met Office station.

…

better to know...?, climate-debate

2 More New Studies Undermine Alarmist Claims That Corals Are Harmed By Warming

by K. Richard, Dec 21, 2023 in NotricksZone

Warmer sea surface temperatures are associated with coral growth, not decline.

According to a new study, coral growth was slow during the ~1°C colder Little Ice Age (LIA), but grew rapidly as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) warmed after 1850. Warmth is associated with coral growth, whereas colder SSTs are linked to growth rate decline.

“The average growth rate of four colonies living in the LIA is 0.87 ± 0.11 cm/yr, which is significantly (t-test, p < 0.0001) lower than the colonies in the 20th century [1.23 ± 0.22 cm/yr].”

“The observed low average growth rates during the LIA can be explained by the ~1°C lower temperature.”

Ocean pH levels were as low or lower (more “acidified”) than recent decades during the LIA (e.g., 1500s to 1700s CE), suggesting that the atmospheric CO2 levels are not an ocean pH variability determinant. In fact, the authors point out that anthropogenic CO2 can only ever affect pH variability by 0.05 of a unit over centuries, whereas natural variations in pH units can reach 0.1 to 0.3 within a decade or less.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Antarctic Sea Ice Volume Greater Than The Early 1980s

by P. Homewood, Dec 21, 2023 in NotaLotof PeopleKnowThat

There was much scaremongering from the alarmist community when Antarctic sea ice extent fell earlier in the year. As the Antarctic summer begins, the melt has slowed down, to the extent that extent is not even the lowest since 1979, and it is higher than in 2017:

 

https://zacklabe.files.wordpress.com/2023/12/nsidc_sie_ant_lines-5.png

https://zacklabe.com/antarctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/

But much more important is the fact that sea ice volume remains higher than the early 1980s, thanks to the fact that it is much thicker than normal around the peninsula:

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climate-debate

2023: Global temperature, statistics and hot air

by D. Whitehouse, Dec 20, 2023 in NetZeroWatch

While 2023 will be the warmest year of the instrumental era, nobody knows why or what it means for the future of climate trends.

As can be seen from the year-to-date graph from NOAA below, 2023 started off with non-exceptional global temperature average – but from June onwards all months broke global records. Such was the cooler start to the year that it was only in September that it became apparent that 2023 could be the warmest year, surpassing the previous holder – 2016 – another El Nino year.

Clearly El Nino has a lot to do with it, coming after an unusual three years of La Nina events that tend to absorb heat in the oceans, releasing it in a subsequent El Nino, as has now happened. So as far as this represents “accelerating climate change” (as NOAA contends) it is debatable as it is mostly a delayed heat distribution, but time will tell.

It is pertinent to say that climate scientists were a little puzzled at this year’s sudden temperature surge as they cannot quite explain it: their models neither predict it nor are they able to account for the surprise. Other factors have contributed to it including the ongoing lifting of the aerosol pollution, especially by China, and the use of new formula ship fuels. The Hunga Tonga explosion that injected water vapour into the stratosphere might have had an effect, though probably a minor one. The Sun reaching the peak of the solar cycle will also have had a small influence.

All this means that 2024 could be another record year if the El Nino progresses, but 2025 will probably see global temperatures fall somewhat. Some have speculated that this will make 2024 the first year to surpass the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C threshold, although a single year is not indicative of a long term trend.

But how would we know we have passed this threshold?

Redefining Climate

Continuer la lecture de 2023: Global temperature, statistics and hot air →

better to know...?, climate-debate

New Study Now Claims We Humans Heat The Atmosphere Just By Exhaling

by K. Richard, Dec 18, 2023 in NoTricksZone

“Where hydrocarbon chains (food types) are consumed by humans and turned into CH4 [methane] … global warming potential is no longer neutral, and human respiration has a net warming effect on the atmosphere.”  – Prada et al., 2023

Image Source pexels.com (stock photo)

According to a new study, humans “contribute to global warming” by exhaling greenhouse gases like methane and carbon dioxide 16 times per minute.

“Exhaled human breath can contain small, elevated concentrations of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), both of which contribute to global warming. These emissions from humans are not well understood and are rarely quantified in global greenhouse gas inventories.”

Like bovine populations, humans are referred to as “methane producers” (MPs), respiring and burping this potent greenhouse gas simply by existing. (Concerns about methane’s global warming potential are so significant that New Zealand is imposing a “methane tax” on the nation’s cows, as these MP animals are heating up the planet with their burps.)

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climate-debate

Ninety-Nine Percent? Re-Examining the Consensus on the Anthropogenic Contribution to Climate Change

by Denteslski et al. , Nov 2023 in MDPI/Springer

Abstract

Anthropogenic activity is considered a central driver of current climate change. A recent paper, studying the consensus regarding the hypothesis that the recent increase in global temperature is predominantly human-made via the emission of greenhouse gasses (see text for reference), argued that the scientific consensus in the peer-reviewed scientific literature pertaining to this hypothesis exceeds 99%. This conclusion was reached after the authors scanned the abstracts and titles of some 3000 papers and mapped them according to their (abstract) statements regarding the above hypothesis. Here, we point out some major flaws in the methodology, analysis, and conclusions of the study. Using the data provided in the study, we show that the 99% consensus, as defined by the authors, is actually an upper limit evaluation because of the large number of “neutral” papers which were counted as pro-consensus in the paper and probably does not reflect the true situation. We further analyze these results by evaluating how so-called “skeptic” papers fit the consensus and find that biases in the literature, which were not accounted for in the aforementioned study, may place the consensus on the low side. Finally, we show that the rating method used in the study suffers from a subjective bias which is reflected in large variations between ratings of the same paper by different raters. All these lead to the conclusion that the conclusions of the study does not follow from the data.
better to know...?, climate-debate

Claim: Global Warming is Reducing Maximum Temperatures in the Himalayas

by E. Worrall, Dec 15, 2023 in WUWT

Nature Geoscience volume 16, pages 1120–1127 (2023)Cite this article

Abstract

Understanding the response of Himalayan glaciers to global warming is vital because of their role as a water source for the Asian subcontinent. However, great uncertainties still exist on the climate drivers of past and present glacier changes across scales. Here, we analyse continuous hourly climate station data from a glacierized elevation (Pyramid station, Mount Everest) since 1994 together with other ground observations and climate reanalysis. We show that a decrease in maximum air temperature and precipitation occurred during the last three decades at Pyramid in response to global warming. Reanalysis data suggest a broader occurrence of this effect in the glacierized areas of the Himalaya. We hypothesize that the counterintuitive cooling is caused by enhanced sensible heat exchange and the associated increase in glacier katabatic wind, which draws cool air downward from higher elevations. The stronger katabatic winds have also lowered the elevation of local wind convergence, thereby diminishing precipitation in glacial areas and negatively affecting glacier mass balance. This local cooling may have partially preserved glaciers from melting and could help protect the periglacial environment.

Read more: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-023-01331-y

The maximum temperature trend may be cooling at -0.26C per decade at some stations, according to the study.

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climate-debate

Saudi Oil Minister Praises UN Climate Agreement, Says It Won’t Slow Their Oil Sales

by N. Pope, Dec 14, 2023 in WUWT

The Saudi Arabian energy minister said Wednesday that the new United Nations (UN) green energy transition pledge will not diminish the country’s ability to sell fossil fuels, according to Al Arabiya, a Saudi Arabian news outlet.

Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that the landmark international pledge to transition away from fossil fuels will not affect Saudi Arabian crude oil sales, according to Al Arabiya. The UN hailed the agreement as “the beginning of the end” for fossil fuels, but Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest producers of crude oil, does not seem especially concerned that the pledge spells doom for the country’s economic lifeblood.

Nearly 200 countries, including the U.S., signed onto the energy transition pledge on Wednesday, just before the annual UN climate summit adjourned.

“The pharaoh methodology of dictating things has been buried, and so people are free in their choices,” Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the oil minister, told Al Arabiya in an interview. He also said explicitly that the COP28 pledge would not hurt the country’s ability to sell crude oil. (RELATED: Biden To Visit Saudi Arabia After Once Vowing To Make Them A ‘Pariah’ During 2019 Debate)

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