Archives de catégorie : climate-debate

All the major nations are failing to meet their Paris targets says Nature paper

by JoNova, October 18, 2017


The Magnificent Paris deal was rubbery-theatre, make-of-it-what-you-will, and with rare diligence here is Naturepublishing a paper where a team bothered to check progress. (If only Nature held scientific research as accountable as political deals. MBH98 anyone — where Mann’s hockeystick was accepted by Nature, but not the corrections?)

Numerical simulations to quantify the diurnal contrast in local climate trend induced by desert urbanization

by S. Kamal et al., September 30, 2017 in Environment SystemsDecisions


Within this scope, the results reveal a pattern of the climatic effect of desert urbanization with nighttime warming and weaker, but significant daytime cooling. This effect is confined to the urban area and is not sensitive to the size of the city or the detailed land cover types in the surrounding areas. The pattern is identified in both winter and summer.

60 scientists call for EPA endangerment finding to be reversed

by  Anthony Watts, October17, 2017 in WUWT, Press release


Electricity Consumers Fully Support Scientists’ Letter to EPA Calling for Immediate Reopening of its GHG Endangerment Finding

 Key Points: This Letter from over 60 highly credentialed scientists states that: “We the undersigned are individuals who have technical skills and knowledge relevant to climate science and the GHG Endangerment Finding. We each are convinced that the 2009 GHG Endangerment Finding is fundamentally flawed and that an honest, unbiased reconsideration is in order.”

What crisis? Global CO2 emissions stalled for the third year in a row

by Anthony Watts, October 20, 2017 in WUWT


The annual assessment of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by the JRC and the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) confirms that CO2 emissions have stalled for the third year in a row.

The report provides updated results on the continuous monitoring of the three main greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O).

See also here

65 Papers Find Extremely Low CO2 Climate Sensitivity

by P. Gosselin, October 2017 in NoTricksZone


 (…) It appears that the much larger changes predicted by other models arise from additional water vapor evaporated into the atmosphere and not from the CO2 itself (…)

(…) Assuming a doubling of CO2 by the late 21st  century (assuming no  positive water vapor feedback), we should likely expect to see no more than about 0.3-0.5°C global surface warming and certainly not the 2-5°C warming that has been projected by the GCMs [global circulation models (…)

Radiation Transfer Calculations and Assessment of Global Warming by CO2

by Hermann Harde, March 30, 2017 in Inter.J.Atm.Sciences


Including solar and cloud effects as well as all relevant feedback processes our simulations give an equilibrium climate sensitivity of = 0.7°C (temperature increase at doubled CO2) and a solar sensitivity of = 0.17°C (at 0.1% increase of the total solar irradiance). Then CO2 contributes 40% and the Sun 60% to global warming over the last century.

Does a Global Temperature Exist?

by Essex C, McKitrick R., Andresen B., June 2006 in J. Non-Eq.Thermodynamics


Physical, mathematical and observational grounds are employed to show that there is no physically meaningful global temperature for the Earth in the context of the issue of global warming. While it is always possible to construct statistics for any given set of local temperature data, an infinite range of such statistics is mathematically permissible if physical principles provide no explicit basis for choosing among them. Distinct and equally valid statistical rules can and do show opposite trends when applied to the results of computations from physical models and real data in the atmosphere. A given temperature field can be interpreted as both “warming” and “cooling” simultaneously, making the concept of warming in the context of the issue of global warming physically ill-posed.

Estimating the extent of Antarctic summer sea ice during the Heroic Age of Antarctic Exploration

by T. Edimburgh and J. Day, November 21, 2017, in TheCryopshere


In stark contrast to the sharp decline in Arctic sea ice, there has been a steady increase in ice extent around Antarctica during the last three decades, especially in the Weddell and Ross seas. In general, climate models do not to capture this trend and a lack of information about sea ice coverage in the pre-satellite period limits our ability to quantify the sensitivity of sea ice to climate change and robustly validate climate models

Climathon : la preuve médiatique du réchauffement !

by Benoît Rittaud, 18 octobre 2017,  in Contepoints


Le jury pensait, bien sûr, désigner plus tôt le vainqueur de septembre 2017 de la propagande climatique. Il demande pardon aux lecteurs pour avoir à ce point aiguisé leur impatience, mais dispose toutefois d’une circonstance fortement atténuante : à quel irrépressible élan a-t-il fallu faire face !

Quelle fougue des compétiteurs, nouveaux comme anciens, a déferlé ce mois-ci, rendant le choix final tout simplement impossible !

Surprise: Defying Models, Antarctic Sea Ice Extent 100 Years Ago Similar To Today

by P. Gosselin, October 17, 2017 in NoTricksZone

from Dr. L. Lüning and Prof. F. Vahrenbolt


Satellite measurements of Antarctic sea ice do not go back even 40 years. That’s not very much, especially when we consider that many natural climate cycles have periods of 60 years and more.

Luckily we have the field of climate reconstruction. Using historical documents and sediment cores, the development of ice cover can be estimated. In November, 2016, Tom Edinburg and Jonathan Day examined shipping log books from the time of Antarctic explorers and published on ice extent in The Cryosphere (…)

Durable Original Measurement Uncertainty

by Kip Hansen, October 14, 2017 in WUWT


Temperature and Water Level (MSL) are two hot topic measurements being widely bandied about and vast sums of money are being invested in research to determine whether, on a global scale, these physical quantities — Global Average Temperature and Global Mean Sea Level — are changing, and if changing, at what magnitude and at what rate. The Global Averages of these ever-changing, continuous variables are being said to be calculated to extremely precise levels — hundredths of a degree for temperature and millimeters for Global Sea Level — and minute changes on those scales are claimed to be significant and important.

SEA LEVEL: Rise and Fall- Part 2 – Tide Gauges

by Kip Hansen, October 7, 2017 in WUWT


There are two important points which readers must be aware of from the first mention of Sea Level Rise (SLR):

  1. SLR is a real concern to coastal cities, low-lying islands and coastal and near-coastal densely-populated areas. It can be real problem. See Part 1 of this series.

  2. SLR is not a threat to much else — not now, not in a hundred years — probably not in a thousand years — maybe, not ever. While it is a valid concern for some coastal cities and low-lying coastal areas, in a global sense, it is a fake problem. 

News From Vostok Ice Cores

by Richard Taylor, October 6, 2017 in WUWT


A Russian team, however, has been active establishing a chronology of deuterium from snow-cores and -pits near the Vostok station (A.A. Ekaykin, et al., 2014). A summary (www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/22532) with digital data became available in May, 2017. The data include annual measurements from 1654 to 2010, providing an overlap with the ice-core record that enables an assessment of present conditions from the perspective of ice-core record.

So What Happened to Expertise with the IPCC?

by John Ridgway, October 6, 2017 in WUWT


It was late evening, April 19, 1995, that the crestfallen figure of McArthur Wheeler could be found slumped over a Pittsburgh Police Department’s interrogation room table. Forlorn and understandably distressed by his predicament, he could be heard muttering dumbfounded astonishment at his arrest. “I don’t understand it,” he would repeat, “I wore the juice, I wore the juice!” (. . .)

Arctic Ice Natural Variability

by Javier, October 5, 2017 in WUWT


A year ago I wrote an article at WUWT analyzing the recent upward trend in summer Arctic sea ice extent. Despite challenges of statistical irrelevancy, the trend has continued another year. Arctic ice experts, that have repeatedly predicted the demise of summer ice, don’t have an explanation for a 10-year trend that contradicts their predictions, beyond statistical variability or unexplained natural variability.

NEW STUDY: CLIMATE SCIENCE CONTROVERSY IS GOOD FOR SCIENCE

by Ferenc Janko et al., , September 2017, in GWPF


Debate and controversy concerning the issue of climate change generally results in the hindering and obstruction of social and governmental action on this issue. This paper analyses the scientific background, i.e. the reference list of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report ‘‘The Physical Science Basis’’ and an alternative climate change report of a US think tank institute ‘‘Climate Change Reconsidered II. Physical Science’’.

See also here

Natural climate variability, part 2: Interpretation of the post 2000 temperature standstill

by N. Scaffetta et al., September1, 2017 in Int.J.Heat.Technology


The period from 2000 to 2016 shows a modest warming trend that the advocates of the anthropogenic global warming theory have labeled as the “pause” or “hiatus.” These labels were chosen to indicate that the observed temperature standstill period results from an unforced internal fluctuation of the climate (e.g. by heat uptake of the deep ocean) that the computer climate models are claimed to occasionally reproduce without contradicting the anthropogenic global warming theory (AGWT) paradigm. In part 1 of this work, it was shown that the statistical analysis rejects such labels with a 95% confidence because the standstill period has lasted more than the 15 year period limit provided by the AGWT advocates themselves.

See also here