by Roy Spencer, July 2, 2019 in GlobalWarming
News reporting of the recent heat wave in France and other European countries was accompanied with the usual blame on humans for causing the event. For example, here’s the CBS News headline: Record-breaking heat is scorching France. Experts say climate change is to blame.
While it is possible that the human component of recent warming might have made the heat wave slightly worse, there are three facts the media routinely ignore when reporting on such “record hot” events. If these facts were to be mentioned, few people with the ability to think for themselves would conclude that our greenhouse gas emissions had much of an impact.
1. Record High Temperatures Occur Even Without Global Warming
by P. Gosselin, June 28, 2019 in NoTricksZone
The Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) expects sea ice extent growth in June 2019:
The DMI plot for the development of Arctic sea ice area (extent) from June 1979 to the PROGNOSE for June, 2019. Since 2010, i.e. 9 years ago, the sea ice areas of the Arctic have been growing in trend. Reports about disappearing sea ice in the Arctic are fake news. See also: No ice melting in the Arctic in this decade. Source: DMI-Plots Ice Cover
May Arctic sea ice trend now stable 15 years
by Chriss Street, June 28, 2019 in ClimateChangeDispatch
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported the month of May was the second wettest and temperatures were in the bottom-third for its 125-year US history.
The 2010 publication titled, ‘A Global Overview Of Drought and Heat-Induced Tree Mortality Reveals Emerging Climate Change Risks for Forests’, was accepted by the Obama administration as scientific evidence that climate change had made the Earth:
“…increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited.”
But NOAA just reported that May US precipitation totaled an average of 4.41 inches, 1.50 inches above average, and ranked second wettest in the 125-year period of record for May as well as second wettest for all months since January 1895.
The only wetter month in US history was May 2015 with 4.44 inches of precipitation.
The 37.68 inches of precipitation across the contiguous U.S. from June 2018 to May 2019 shattered the previous 1982-83 12-month period by 1.48 inches.
Near-record to record precipitation was observed from the West Coast through the central Plains and into the Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast.
As a result, severe May flooding was observed along the Arkansas, Missouri, and Mississippi rivers. Vicksburg, MS, reported ongoing flooding since mid-February.
by Regis Crepet, 2 juin 2019 in LaChaîneMétéo
Ces deux dernières années ont été marquées par une activité cyclonique supérieure aux moyennes statistiques en Atlantique Nord, notamment en 2017 avec des phénomènes puissants tels Irma et Maria dans les Caraïbes. Cette année, alors que la saison démarre officiellement le 1er juin, nos prévisions sont plus rassurantes avec la perspective d’une activité cyclonique légèrement plus faible que la moyenne.
by Dr. Roy Spencer, June 7, 2019 in WUWT
Abstract: A simple time-dependent model of Earth surface temperatures over the 24 hr day/night cycle at different latitudes is presented. The model reaches energy equilibrium after 1.5 months no matter what temperature it is initialized at. It is shown that even with 1,370 W/m2 of solar flux (reduced by an assumed albedo of 0.3), temperatures at all latitudes remain very cold, even in the afternoon and in the deep tropics. Variation of the model input parameters over reasonable ranges do not change this fact. This demonstrates the importance of the atmospheric “greenhouse” effect, which increases surface temperatures well above what can be achieved with only solar heating and surface infrared loss to outer space.
by Charles the moderator, June3, 2019 in WUWT
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for May, 2019 was +0.32 deg. C, down from the April, 2019 value of +0.44 deg. C:
by Tony Heller, April 4, 2019 in ClimateChangeDispatch
The volume of Arctic sea ice is very close to the median over the past 12 years and continues to grow.
There has been no trend in Arctic sea ice extent or volume over the past twelve years.
Also from DMI:
by P. Homewood, April 3, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
According to CET, March 2019 was the 17th warmest on record since 1659, 1.2C higher than the 1981-2010 average.
Sound impressed? No, thought not!
The month as a whole actually seemed to be pretty unremarkable. There was some mild weather at the start of the month, accompanied by very wet weather. The last few days were also pleasant and sunny.
But unusually warm?
The graph at the top gives a bit of perspective.
First of all it is obvious that last month was pretty typical of Marchs during the last 30 years or so.
The fact that it is 1.2C above the 30-year average means little, as natural variability means some years are warmer and others cooler, such as last year. That’s what an average is.
Indeed, in the last 30 years, eleven had March anomalies of 1C or more. Six of these years were warmer than this March.
By far the warmest Marchs were in 1957 and 1938, again suggesting that there was nothing unusual about last month.
The other thing which stands out is that most Marchs used to be much colder than normal until the 1980s.
see also here (WUWT)
by Tony Heller, March 19, 2019 in TheDeplorableClimSciBLog
NOAA says last month was “among the eight warmest Februarys on record” in much of the Earth.
According to NCEI’s Regional Analysis, South America, Europe and Oceania had a February temperature that ranked among the eight warmest Februarys on record.
There is no such word as “Februarys” – plural for February is Februaries. But besides the fact they are illiterate, they are also lying
It looks like the world is burning up, with just a few slightly cool areas. It has an official government seal on it, so it must be accurate, right?
The map below shows where NOAA actually had surface temperatures in February.
by P. Homewood, March 11, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat
As I reported last September, Greenland’s ice sheet mass balance had grown at close to record levels for the second year running.
To clarify again, the mass balance calculation accounts for:
2) Ice melt
In other words, it does not include calving.
by GWPF, February 26, 2019
“El Niño conditions across the equatorial Pacific have come together, and we can now announce its arrival,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, and ENSO forecaster.
NOAA gives a 55% chance of El Niño conditions persisting through the spring.
Sea surface temperatures in January — orange-red colors are above normal.
“While sea surface temperatures are above average, current observations and climate models indicate that this El Niño will be weak, meaning we do not expect significant global impacts through the remainder of winter and into the spring,” Halpert said.
by Andy May / Javier, February 24, 2019 in WUWT
February is not over, and Arctic sea-ice extent is already over half a million square kilometers higher than last year at this day.
The growing season has not ended, and 2019 Arctic sea-ice extent is already higher than the previous four years and six out of the last 14 years.
Arctic sea-ice has stubbornly resisted the very warm years between 2015-2017 caused by the big El Niño. Are we going to see an increase in Arctic sea-ice over the next few years? Only time will tell, but the idea cannot be discarded.
by Roy Spencer, January 24, 2019 in WUWT
A “Siberian Express” weather disturbance currently crossing the Arctic Ocean will meet up with the semi-permanent winter “polar vortex” over Canada, pushing a record-breaking cold air mass into the Upper Plains and Midwest U.S. by Wednesday.
Chicago All-Time Record Low?
Both the European (ECMWF) and U.S. (GFS) weather forecast models are in agreement that by Wednesday morning temperatures in the Chicago suburbs will be approaching -30 deg. F. The all-time official record low for the Chicago metro area was -27 deg. F (O’Hare) on January 20, 1985, and that 34 year old record could fall as the ECMWF model is forecasting -32 deg. F for Thursday morning while the GFS model is bottoming out at -26 deg. F on Wednesday morning. Of course, these forecasts will change somewhat in the coming days as the cold wave approaches.
by Anthony Watts, January 8, 2019 in WUWT
In late 2018, there were some predictions that there would be a significant El Niño event in 2019. There were strong hints of an El Niño event in both SST data and forecasts. In an April 6th 2018 essay, Bob Tisdale suggested “Looks like one may be forming right now.”
But if we look at the animation provided by NOAA’s Climate prediction center, it sure looks like it has been fading: