Archives de catégorie : better to know…?

better to know...?, climate-debate

Kerala Floods “Likely Due To Climate Variability, Not AGW”–New Study

by P. Homewood, January 5, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

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Since there is no increase in mean and extreme precipitation in Kerala over the last six decades, the extreme event during August 2018 is likely to be driven by anomalous atmospheric conditions due to climate variability rather anthropogenic climate warming. The severity of the Kerala flood of 2018 and the damage caused might be affected by several factors including land use/ land cover change, antecedent hydrologic conditions, reservoir storage and operations, encroachment of flood plains, and other natural factors. The impacts of key drivers (anthropogenic and natural) on flood severity need to be established to improve our understanding of floods and associated damage.

http://www.geosocindia.org/index.php/jgsi/article/view/137443

better to know...?, climate-debate

Heads up Newfoundland & Labrador: polar bear season has begun

by Susan Crockford, January 2, 2019 in PolarBearScience

There is now enough sea ice off southern Labrador and the northern tip of Newfoundland for Davis Strait polar bears to come ashore looking for food. Baby seals won’t be available for months yet. And since winter is the lean season for these bears, some may seek food sources onshore. The bears come down from the area of Hudson Strait and southern Baffin Island: as the sea ice expands south, so do the bears.

 

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better to know...?, climate-debate, energy and fields

Global Warming Win: Venezuelan Socialists On Track to Eliminate Their Nation’s Oil Industry

by Eric Worrall, December 31, 2018 in WUWT

Despite oil accounting for a whopping 90% of Venezuela’s export earnings, President Maduro, a fervent supporter of the Paris Agreement, has courageously put principle before profits by implementing his version of a new green deal. Maduro has eliminated the capitalist exploiters from his nation’s oil industry, and replaced them with loyal army officers who are rapidly dismantling the infrastructure left behind by the capitalists.

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Read more: https://www.businessinsider.com/r-special-report-oil-output-goes-awol-in-venezuela-as-soldiers-run-pdvsa-2018-12/

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better to know...?, climate-debate

TOP 12 DEBUNKED CLIMATE SCARES OF 2018

by GWPF, December 31, 2018

January 2018:  Worst-case global warming scenarios not credible: Study

PARIS (AFP) – Earth’s surface will almost certainly not warm up four or five degrees Celsius by 2100, according to a study released Wednesday (Jan 17) which, if correct, voids worst-case UN climate change predictions.

A revised calculation of how greenhouse gases drive up the planet’s temperature reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half, researchers said in the report, published in the journal Nature.

February:  ‘Sinking’ Pacific nation Tuvalu is actually getting bigger, new research reveals

The Pacific nation of Tuvalu — long seen as a prime candidate to disappear as climate change forces up sea levels — is actually growing in size, new research shows.

A University of Auckland study examined changes in the geography of Tuvalu’s nine atolls and 101 reef islands between 1971 and 2014, using aerial photographs and satellite imagery.

It found eight of the atolls and almost three-quarters of the islands grew during the study period, lifting Tuvalu’s total land area by 2.9 percent, even though sea levels in the country rose at twice the global average.

 March …. April… etc.

better to know...?, climate-debate

China Ignores Paris Climate Accord As CO2 Emissions Rapidly Rise

by Chriss Street, December 31, 2018 in ClimateChange Dispatch

Despite being lauded by President Obama for signing the Paris UN Climate Change Accords, China is still rapidly expanding greenhouse gas emissions.

President Obama and China’s President Xi Jinping issued a ‘U.S.-China Joint Presidential Statement on Climate Change’on March 31, 2016 stating that both nations were signing the Paris Accords and would take further “concrete steps” to “use public resources to finance and encourage the transition toward low carbon technologies as a priority.”

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better to know...?, press and newspapers

Why all you’ve been told about these polar bears could be WRONG

by David Rose, December 30, 2018 in DailyMail

Animals driven to the edge of their natural habitat by shrinking ice have become one of the defining images of climate change, but Inuits who know the predators have a very different story
  • Aaron Gibbons, 31, was mauled to death by a polar bear earlier this year 
  • Inuit leaders want to be allowed to increase the amount of bears they kill
  • Climate change activists say bears are in decline, due to global warming
  • But locals say polar bears are adapting and are perfectly able to breed
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better to know...?, climate-debate

2018 will be the first year with no violent tornadoes in the United States

by Charles the moderator, December 27 2018 in WUWT

From LMT Online

In the whirlwind that is 2018, there has been a notable lack of high-end twisters.

We’re now days away from this becoming the first year in the modern record with no violent tornadoes touching down in the United States. Violent tornadoes are the strongest on a 0 to 5 scale, or those ranked EF4 or EF5.

It was a quiet year for tornadoes overall, with below normal numbers most months. Unless you’re a storm chaser, this is not bad news. The low tornado count is undoubtedly a big part of the reason the 10 tornado deaths in 2018 is also vying to be a record low.

While we still have several days to go in 2018, and some severe weather is likely across the South to close it out, odds favor the country making it the rest of the way without a violent tornado.

If and when that happens, it will be the first time since the modern record began in 1950.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Land motion drives varying rates of sea level along the US East Coast

by Charles the moderator, December 26, 2018 in WUWT

From Science Magazine

Dec 20, 2018

Along the US East Coast, the Earth’s continued response to the end of the last ice age explains variances in relative sea level rates

Chestnut Hill, Mass. (12/20/2018) – Along the East Coast of the United States, relative sea level change does not happen uniformly between Maine and Florida.

Data have shown that sea level rise in the Mid-Atlantic region surpassed changes in relative sea level along the coastlines of the South Atlantic and the Gulf of Maine. A team of researchers took a look back at historical data through new analytical methods to pinpoint the reason behind the different rates of sea level change.

Assessing data from a range of sources and previous studies, the team concluded that the movement of the earth – referred to as vertical land motion – is the dominant force behind variations in rates of sea level rise up and down the East Coast, the team reports today in the journal Nature.

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better to know...?, biology+acidification

CORAL REEFS CAN TAKE THE HEAT, UNLIKE EXPERTS CRYING WOLF

by Peter Ridd, December 26, 2018 in GWPF

Scientists from James Cook University have just published a paper on the bleaching and death of corals on the Great Barrier Reef and were surprised that the death rate was less than they expected, because of the adaptability of corals to changing temperatures.

It appears as though they exaggerated their original claims and are quietly backtracking.

To misquote Oscar Wilde, to exaggerate once is a misfortune, to do it twice looks careless, but to do it repeatedly looks like unforgivable systemic unreliability by some of our major science organisations.

The very rapid adaptation of corals to high temperatures is a well-known phenomenon; besides, if you heat corals in a given year, they tend to be less susceptible in the future to overheating. This is why corals are one of the least likely species to be affected by climate change, irrespective of whether you believe the climate is changing by natural fluctuations or because of human influence.

Corals have a unique way of dealing with changing temperature, by changing the microscopic plants that live inside them. These microscopic plants, called zooxanthellae, give the coral energy from the sun through photosynthesis in exchange for a comfortable home inside the coral. When the water gets hot, these little plants effectively become poisonous to the coral and the coral throws them out, which turns the coral white — that is, it bleaches.

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better to know...?, biology+acidification

Ocean Acidification Background Context

by ‘Guest Blogger’, December 23, 2018 in WUWT

Obiter dictum. We acknowledge that seawater is basic and cannot truly acidify (pH<7). But that is a losing semantic quibble, not a winning skeptical argument. The generally accepted linguistic convention—for better or worse–is that lowering seawater pH means ‘acidification’. There is no doubt that adding dissolved CO2 does lower pH. The relevant questions are how much and whether that amount matters. This post answers both questions (a little, not much) without the two specific false alarms that motivated the ebook version.

There are certainly some ocean related AGW consequences beyond any scientific doubt. Henry’s Law requires that the partial pressures of atmospheric and dissolved ocean CO2equilibrate. Rising atmospheric CO2 must increase dissolved seawater CO2. That is long established simple physical chemistry.

This lowers pH by increasing carbonic acid. NOAA PMEL has documented this in the central Pacific at Station Aloha off Mauna Loa where sea surface pH has declined from 8.11 to 8.07 since 1991, as dissolved pCO2 increased from ≈325 to ≈360μatm while atmospheric CO2 increased from about 355 to 395 ppm. That is Δ0.04 pH in 24 years.

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See also here (in French)

better to know...?, climate-debate

“THE LIST” — SCIENTISTS WHO PUBLICLY DISAGREE WITH THE CURRENT CONSENSUS ON CLIMATE CHANGE

by Cap Allon, December 20, 2018 in Electroverse

For those still blindly banging the ‘97%’ drum, here is a in-no-way-comprehensive list of the SCIENTISTS who publicly disagree with the current consensus on climate change –namely the IPCC’s catastrophic conclusions.

There are currently 85 names on the list. Though it is embryonic and dynamic.

Suggestions for omissions and/or additions can be added to the comment section below and, if validated, will serve to update the list.

SCIENTISTS ARGUING THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS PRIMARILY CAUSED BY NATURAL PROCESSES

— scientists that have called the observed warming attributable to natural causes, i.e. the high solar activity witnessed over the last few decades.

better to know...?, climate-debate

Ignoring Climate Alarmists, UK Government Promises More Flights And Bigger Airports

by P. Homewood, December 18, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

The Department for Transport publishes a long-awaited aviation strategy today that pledges to deliver “greater capacity at UK airports”.

It raises the prospect of airports other than Heathrow growing and accepting more flights if tough environmental and noise restrictions are met.

The strategy also outlines plans for the biggest overhaul of Britain’s airspace in more than 50 years to create new flight paths into the biggest airports. GPS-style technology will allow aircraft to fly along more accurate paths below 30,000ft instead of being led by ground beacons, which space planes out over a wide arc several miles across.

It will mean a considerable increase to the 600 or so dedicated flight paths that are in operation today

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Ten years ago, @AlGore predicted the North polar ice cap would be gone. Inconveniently, it’s still there

by Antony Watts, December 16, 2018 in WUWT

On December 14, 2008, former presidential candidate Al Gore predicted the North Polar Ice Cap would be completely ice free in five years. As reported on WUWT, Gore made the prediction to a German TV audience at the COP15 Climate Conference:

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Ce que la liste des participants à la COP24 dit sur la science climatique

by Rémy Prud’homme, décembre 2018, in MythesManciesMath.

La COP est une conférence internationale qui depuis 24 ans tient chaque année la réunion de la dernière chance pour sauver la planète. Vous croyez peut-être que la planète avait été sauvée lors de la COP21 à Paris. Erreur. Tout reste à faire. C’est ce qui justifie la COP24, qui se tient cette année en Pologne. Le secrétariat de la COP24 publie en ligne la liste de ses participants, sur près de 1100 pages.

Plus de 21 000 participants. Sans compter les 1500 journalistes accrédités, qui sont rémunérés par leurs médias, pas par les contribuables. Ces 21 000 participants sont pour 14000 des délégués des gouvernements, et pour 6000 des représentants d’ONGs prétendument intéressées et compétentes. (Le solde est composé de membres d’organisations du système des Nations-Unies).

Le coût de la fête est élevé. Les seuls frais de déplacement et de séjour pour cette COP de 15 jours s’élèvent sans doute (sur la base de 10000 € par participant) à plus de 200 millions d’euros. On pourrait y ajouter le coût du temps passé par les participants. S’ils y passent en moyenne une semaine, cela fait 21000 semaines, soit environ 500 personnes-années. A 50000 euros/an, 25 millions d’euros, qui s’ajoutent aux frais de déplacement. C’est de quoi doubler le niveau de vie annuel de 2 ou 3 millions d’enfants au Malawi.

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better to know...?

Cop 24 : le voyage tous frais payés des 406 délégués guinéens

by F. Vahrenholtz & S. Lüning, 12 décembre 2018 in Contrepoints

Un article de NoTricksZone

La conférence sur le climat de Katowice bat son plein et diverses initiatives visant à réduire les émissions de dioxyde de carbone sont à l’ordre du jour : manger moins de viande, se chauffer moins, prendre moins l’avion. Dans ce dernier cas, bien sûr, la conférence confine elle-même à l’absurde.

Il aurait été facile de transformer la conférence en une réunion sur Internet avec retransmission en direct et commentaires en ligne. Mais il aurait manqué quelque chose à ce long et merveilleux voyage d’affaires avec ses réceptions, ses indemnités journalières et ses réunions d’avant Noël entre sauveteurs du climat. Cette fois-ci, plus de 22 000 participants se sont rendus en Pologne, la plupart confortablement en avion. Les délégations les plus nombreuses à la Conférence sur le climat venaient d’Afrique.

La Guinée envoie 406 délégués cette année, la République démocratique du Congo y est présente avec 237 participants et la Côte d’Ivoire envoie 191 ressortissants en Pologne. La liste des participants est disponible sur la page d’accueil de la conférence en format pdf et compte 1084 pages.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Climate change: COP24 fails to adopt key scientific report

by P. Homewood, December 9, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

Attempts to incorporate a key scientific study into global climate talks in Poland have failed.

The IPCC report on the impacts of a temperature rise of 1.5C, had a significant impact when it was launched last October.

Scientists and many delegates in Poland were shocked as the US, Saudi Arabia, Russia and Kuwait objected to this meeting “welcoming” the report.

It was the 2015 climate conference that had commissioned the landmark study.

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better to know...?

Marché européen du carbone : stop ou encore

by Jean-Pierre Schaeken, 7 décembre 2018 in ScienceClimatEnergie

Le système d’échange de quotas d’émission de l’UE,connu sous l’acronyme SEQE-EU ou en anglais  EU ETS, est instrument utilisé pour réduire les émissions de Gaz à Effet de Serre (GES) ou de CO2 pour faire court.  Il repose sur un principe de plafonnement et d’échange des droits d’émission. Il a été adopté par la Commission Environnement du Parlement européen, le 13 octobre 2003.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

The Increasing Surface Mass Balance of Two Antarctic Glaciers

by Engel, Z.  et al., December 6, 2018 in CO2Sci/J.ofGlaciology

The polar regions of the Earth have long been depicted as canary-in-the-coal-mine sentinels of climate change, given that climate models project that CO2-induced global warming will manifest itself here, first and foremost, compared to other planetary latitudes. Consequently, researchers are frequently examining the Arctic and Antarctic for evidence of recent climate change.

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Clearly, as demonstrated here and in other studies (see, for example, The Antarctic Peninsula: No Longer the Canary in the Coal Mine for Climate Alarmists and the references therein) there is a canary in the Antarctic alright, but it is alive and well. And these counter-observations do not bode well for climate models and their projections of CO2-induced global warming.

Figure 1. Surface mass-balance records for glaciers around the northern Antarctic Peninsula. Source: Engel et al. (2018).

better to know...?, climate-debate

COP 24: The Church Of Climate Fear

by David Wojic, December 5, 2018 in ClimateChangeDispatch

The mainstream press coverage of the beginning of the Katowice climate summit is sad but fascinating.

There is a uniformly dogmatic sense of urgency based on fear, with very little news and a great deal of preaching.

Fear is the dominant theme.

I truly pity the people who hold these false beliefs, as they must be afraid of the future. But I am not sympathetic with the alarmism, because it makes people dangerous.

The preachers are calling on the faithful to change the world we live in, and not in a good way. Fear makes people angry and angry people are dangerous.

Here are just three examples of alarmist news coverage of the Katowice climate summit, a few among many.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Pulses of sinking carbon reaching the deep sea are not captured in global climate models

by Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute, December 3, 2018 in ScienceDaily

More than two miles below the ocean’s surface, microbes, worms, fishes, and other creatures great and small thrive. They rely on the transport of dead and decaying matter from the surface (marine snow) for food at these dark depths.

Up near the sea surface, carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is incorporated in the bodies of microscopic algae and the animals that eat them. When they die, these organisms sink to the depths, carrying carbon with them.

This supply of carbon to the deep sea isn’t steady. At times, months’ to years’ worth of marine snow falls to the abyss during very short “pulse” events.

In a new study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), MBARI scientists and their collaborators show that there has been an increase in pulse events off the coast of California. They also show that, although such episodes are very important to the carbon cycle, they are not well represented in global climate models.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

WMO Reasoning behind Two Sets of “Normals” a.k.a. Two Periods of Base Years for Anomalies

by Bob Tisdale, December 3, 2018 in WUWT

Most of us are familiar with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)-recommended 30-year period for “normals”, which are also used as base years against which anomalies are calculated. Most, but not all, climate-related data are referenced to 30-year periods. Presently the “climatological standard normals” period is 1981-2010. These “climatological standard normals” are updated every ten years after we pass another year ending in a zero. That is, the next period for “climatological standard normals” will be 1991-2020, so the shift to new “climatological standard normals” will take place in a few years.

But were you aware that the WMO also has another recommended 30-year period for “normals”, against which anomalies are calculated? It’s used for the “reference standard normals” or “reference normals”. The WMO-recommended period for “reference normals” is 1961-1990. And as many of you know, of the primary suppliers of global mean surface temperature data, the base years of 1961-1990 are only used by the UKMO.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Scary but fake news about the National Climate Assessment

by Larry Summers, December 1, 2018 in WUWT

Summary: Volume II of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA) has dominated the news in the weeks since its release. One of the major findings that journalists headlined was the effect of climate change on the US economy. Ten percent is vivid number to grab the attention of Americans still skeptical after thirty years of dire warnings about climate change. Unfortunately it is a dubious story, as explained in these tweets by Roger Pielke Jr.