Archives de catégorie : better to know…?

better to know...?, climate-debate

Critical Examination of Hurricane Intensification Predictions

by J. Steele, Oct 1, 2023 in WUWT

Why climate models not yet worth their salt!

As all hurricane researchers lament, model predictions of when and where hurricanes will intensify, have not improved much in the past 20 years. As recently as the early 2010s, weather model forecasts failed to predict 88 percent of rapidly intensifying tropical storms. Nonetheless National Public Radio (NPR) has ranted that hurricanes are “intensifying more quickly, turning from less-serious storms to very strong ones in hours or days. Superheated ocean waters hold a lot of extra energy, and a growing storm can draw from that enormous pool.” But such “superheated water” is not widespread as rising CO2 narratives suggest, but found only in very limited regions and usually associated with “barrier layers”.

Hurricanes intensify as they draw “superheated” subsurface waters  of 65.5°F or higher. However, when a hurricane’s suction pulls up cooler subsurface waters, the hurricane weakens. This negative feedback naturally limits the intensity of all hurricanes. In the upper panel of the attached graphic, Arnand (2023) illustrates where thin barrier layer exists, hurricane intensity hovers around Category 1. In contrast, where thick barrier layers form, cooler deep waters are prevented from reaching the surface, and instead allow superheated sub-surface waters to cause rapid intensification.

Denser fluids don’t naturally rise above less dense fluids! Barrier layer formation happens wherever freshwater overlays dense salty waters. Although solar heating would normally make subsurface waters less dense and rise to the surface, layers with higher saltiness makes the water more dense which inhibits warm convection. That traps and intensifies the subsurface heat, enabling hurricanes to intensify to Category 5.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

THE TRUTH ABOUT WEATHER EXTREMES What the Past Tells Us

by Alexander, Sep 2023 , in GWPF

Executive summary

This report refutes the popular but mistaken belief that today’s weather extremes are more common and more intense because of climate change, by examining the history of extreme weather events over the past century or so. Drawing on newspaper archives, the report presents multiple examples of past extremes that matched or exceeded anything experienced in the present-day world. That so many people are unaware of this shows that collective memories of extreme weather are short-lived.

Heatwaves of the last few decades pale in comparison to those of the 1930s – a period whose importance is frequently downplayed by the media and environmental activists. The evidence shows that the record heat of the 1930s was not confined to the US Dust Bowl, but extended throughout much of North America, as well as other countries such as France, India and Australia.

Major floods today are no more common nor deadly or disruptive than any of the thousands of floods in the past, despite heavier precipitation in a warming world (which has increased flash flooding). Many of the world’s countries regularly experience major floods, especially China, India and Pakistan.

Severe droughts have been a continuing feature of the earth’s climate for millennia, despite the brouhaha in the mainstream media over the extended drought in Europe during the summer of 2022. Not only was the European drought not unprecedented, but there have been numerous longer and drier droughts throughout history, including during the past century.

Hurricanes overall actually show a decreasing trend around the globe, and the frequency of landfalling hurricanes has not changed for at least 50 years. The deadliest US hurricane in record- ed history, which killed an estimated 8,000 to 12,000 people, struck Galveston, Texas over 100 years ago in 1900.

Likewise, there is no evidence that climate change is causing tornadoes to become more frequent and stronger. The annual number of strong (EF3 or greater) US tornadoes has in fact declined dramatically over the last 72 years, and there are ample examples of past tornadoes just as or more violent and deadly than today’s.

Wildfires are not increasing either. On the contrary, the area burned annually is diminishing in most countries. Although wildfires can be exacerbated by other weather extremes such as heatwaves and droughts, those extremes are not on the rise as stated above.

The perception that extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and severity is primarily a consequence of modern technology – the Internet and smart phones – which have revolutionised communication and made us much more aware of such disasters than we were 50 or 100 years ago. The misperception has only been amplified by the mainstream media, eager to promote the latest climate scare. And as psychologists know, constant repetition of a false belief can, over time, create the illusion of truth. But history tells a different story.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Climate Emergency Not Supported by Data, Leading Italian Scientists Say

by C. Morrison, Sep 15, 2022 in ClimateChangeDispatch

Four leading Italian scientists have undertaken a major review of historical climate trends and concluded that declaring a ‘climate emergency’ is not supported by the data.

Reviewing data from a wide range of weather phenomena, they say a ‘climate crisis’ of the kind people are becoming alarmed about “is not evident yet”. [bold, links added]

The scientists suggest that rather than burdening our children with anxiety about climate change, we should encourage them to think about issues like energy, food, and health and the challenges in each area, with a more “objective and constructive spirit” and not waste limited resources on “costly and ineffective solutions.”

During the course of their work, the scientists found that rainfall intensity and frequency are stationary in many parts of the world.

Tropical hurricanes and cyclones show little change over the long term, and the same is true of U.S. tornadoes. Other meteorological categories including natural disasters, floods, droughts, and ecosystem productivity show no “clear positive trend of extreme events.”

Regarding ecosystems, the scientists note a considerable “greening” of global plant biomass in recent decades caused by higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Satellite data show “greening” trends over most of the planet, increasing food yields and pushing back deserts.

The four scientists are all highly qualified and include physics adjunct professor Gianluca Alimonti, agro-meteorologist Luigi Mariani, and physics professors Franco Prodi and Renato Angelo Ricci. The last two are signatories to the rapidly growing ‘World Climate Declaration’.

This petition states that there is no climate emergency and calls for climate science to be more scientific. It also calls for the liberation from the “naïve belief in immature climate models.” In the future, it says, “climate research must give significantly more emphasis to empirical science.”

‘Extreme’ weather events attributed by climate models – somehow – to anthropogenic global warming are now the main staple of the climate alarmist industry.

As the Daily Sceptic reported on Monday, Sir David Attenborough used a U.K. Met Office model forecast in the first episode of Frozen Planet II to claim that summer Arctic sea ice could be gone within 12 years.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

17 years of near-zero trend in September sea ice demolishes claim that more CO2 means less sea ice

by Polar Bear Science, Sep  23, 2023

If the hottest year ever can’t precipitate ‘ice-free’ conditions in September, what’s it going to take? Arctic sea ice failed to nose-dive again this year, undoubtedly disappointing expects who have been anticipating a ‘death-spiral’ decline for ages. Arctic sea ice hit its seasonal low sometime around mid-September this year and although the precise value hasn’t been published, the average September ice coverage will likely be about 4.2 mkm2 once it gets announced in early October.

This means we have now had 17 years of a near-zero trend for September sea ice, extending the nearly-flat trend NSIDC sea ice experts acknowledged four years ago. This surely busts a huge hole in the prevailing concept that more atmospheric CO2 causes less summer sea ice. Note that CO2 levels measured in August 2023 were 419.7 parts per million (ppm), compared to 382.2 in August 2007, a rise of 37.5ppm with no corresponding decline in summer sea ice (and vs. 314.2 ppm in 1960). Measured in metric tons, CO2 emissions due to fossil fuels rose from 31.1 billion in 2007 to 37.1 billion in 2021 (last year of data), again with no corresponding decline in summer sea ice.

Background

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better to know...?, climate-debate

New Paper Claims Antarctica Had The ‘Most Intense Heat Wave Ever Recorded’. It Didn’t

by P. Gosselin, Sep 27, 2023 in ClimatChangeDispatch

On September 24th, 2023, Kasha Patel, a writer for The Washington Post (WaPo) created a story that is likely in the top 10 most false and egregious climate scare stories ever published.

Titled, “Scientists found the most intense heat wave ever recorded — in Antarctica,” the story isn’t just false, it is doubly so because the research paper it is based on is also seriously flawed. [emphasis, links added]

In this case, peer review at Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) failed to catch and correct the most basic abuse of the definition of a “heat wave.”

The leading paragraph of the WaPo story said:

In March 2022, temperatures near the eastern coast of Antarctica spiked 70 degrees Fahrenheit (39 degrees Celsius) above normal — making it the most intense recorded heat wave to occur anywhere on Earth, according to a recent study.

At the time, researchers on-site were wearing shorts and some even removed their shirts to bask in the (relative) warmth. Scientists elsewhere said such a high in that region of the world was unthinkable.

WaPo also provided a normal temperature, for reference with some “unbelievability” from the lead author of the paper.

Temperatures in March, marking a change into autumn on the continent, are typically around minus -54 degrees Celsius on the east coast near…Dome C. On March 18, 2022, temperatures peaked to minus -10 degrees Celsius. That’s warmer than even the hottest temperature recorded during the summer months in that region — “that in itself is pretty unbelievable,” said Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington.

First, it is important to point out that the so-called “heat wave” really wasn’t warm at all; the shorts and shirt removal were completely for show, rather than science.

Since most people in the United States use the Fahrenheit temperature scale, which isn’t mentioned at all in the WaPo article citing the actual high temperature recorded, it was easy for reporter Kasha Patel to sneak by the idea that it was actually warm at the time.

-10 Celsius is actually 14 degrees Fahrenheit – which isn’t warm, much less a “heat wave” by any definition. Patel can’t be forgiven for not mentioning this in the article because anyone can get the conversion simply by typing it into Google, like this example.

But that isn’t the worst journalistic violation Patel makes.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Arctic 2023 Refuses To Melt…German Scientists Blame ‘Unusual Weather’

by P. Gosselin, Sep 17, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

Sixteen Years Of No Decline

Arctic summer minimum sea ice extent refuses to drop further, surprising and frustrating the alarmist media.

German research vessel Polarstern of the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) is currently underway again in the Arctic where a decrease in sea ice had been expected there, or, probably more accurately said, hoped for. [emphasis, links added]

But this year the minimum Arctic sea ice extent has turned out differently, as Germany’s widely viewed (climate-alarmist) Tagesschau news had to report:

In view of the extreme summer, the question arose in advance: Will the Arctic also see a new negative record in melting ice this year? This time, the Arctic has been spared.

AWI director and expedition leader Antje Boetius tells Tagesschau that an unusual weather phenomenon prevented a record melt of Arctic sea ice this summer.

According to Boetius, a sequence of low-pressure systems has led to an entirely different ice movement. The so-called transpolar drift, which describes the drifting of ice along certain routes, took a different course this year, she said.

Ice from the Siberian region has been held together and compressed instead of drifting out and melting. For the AWI director, this shows that weather phenomena determine the development of sea ice, and that forecasting is more difficult than ever.

The Arctic, with its sea ice and life, has been lucky once again, says the biologist. But things could go the other way. “If we are unlucky, if weather phenomena play unfavorably, we can also be affected by large ice-free parts much sooner than expected,” Boetius adds.”

We notice that when the opposite happens, e.g. heat, storms, or more ice melt, then it’s all because of climate warming. But when it goes the other way, then it’s weather!

better to know...?, climate-debate

A Round-Up of the BBC’s Climate Howlers of the Past 12 Months

by C. Morrison, Aug 6, 2023 in TheDailySceptic

The annual Paul Homewood review of the BBC’s climate howlers is always an enjoyable read, even for those keen students who follow his investigative work during the year. But with the consensus starting to crumble for the insane Net Zero collectivist project, this latest instalment of Tall Climate Tales from the BBC seems to have attracted a wider audience. Talk TV and the Daily Express have both given extensive coverage to the latest set of BBC bloopers.

How we laughed when Julia Hartley-Brewer read from the list on her TalkTV morning show. Such as the report from the Norfolk village of Happisburgh where “extreme weather linked to climate change” has eroded the soft sand cliff rock. No mention of the finding of the British Geological Society that it is likely the Norfolk cliffs have been “eroding at the present rate for about the last 5,000 years”.

Or the report that the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season was the third most active on record. Nothing of the sort, of course, with Homewood observing that since 1851 there have been 32 years with a higher count of hurricanes. There was also an evidence-free claim in September 2022 on the BBC Verify that hurricanes were getting more powerful. The U.S. weather service NOAA states in its latest review that “there is not strong evidence for an increase since the late 1800s in hurricanes, major hurricanes, or the proportion of hurricanes that reach major hurricane intensity”.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

New Scientist: How worried should we be about climate change?

by D. Whitehouse, Aug23, 2023 in NetZeroWatch

How worried should we be, asks New Scientist in a Climate Change Special Issue. The 19th August issue is billed as a guide to a year of extreme weather – “a year of extremes,” when 2023 is barely half way over.

In a New Scientist Climate Special Report senior reporter Michael Le Page asks if climate change is worse than we thought it would be? Well, it depends upon who you ask – and New Scientist usually asks the same experts for their unwavering opinions which, as we shall see, are sometimes just a premonition they have.

The article in question quotes the usual crew: Peter Stott of the UK Met Office, Piers Forster of the University of Leeds, Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth and Stefan Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. Together they have been quoted in the New Scientist 109 times.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

“97% Consensus” — What Consensus?

by G. Wrightstone,  Aug 31, 2023 in WUWT

You have likely heard that 97% of scientists agree on human-driven climate change. You may also have heard that those who don’t buy into the climate-apocalypse mantra are science-deniers. The truth is that a whole lot more than 3% of scientists are skeptical of the party line on climate. A whole lot more.

The many scientists, engineers and energy experts that comprise the CO2 Coalition are often asked something along the lines of: “So you believe in climate change, then?” Our answer? “Yes, of course we do: it has been happening for hundreds of millions of years.” It is important to ask the right questions. The question is not, “Is climate change happening?” The real question of serious importance is, “Is climate change now driven primarily by human actions? That question should be followed up by “is our changing climate beneficial or harmful to ecosystems and humanity?”

There are some scientific truths that are quantifiable and easily proven, and with which, I am confident, at least 97% of scientists agree. Here are two:

  1. Carbon dioxide concentration has been increasing in recent years.
  2. Temperatures, as measured by thermometers and satellites, have been generally increasing in fits and starts for more than 150 years.

What is impossible to quantify is the actual percentage of warming that is attributable to increased anthropogenic (human-caused) CO2. There is no scientific evidence or method that can determine how much of the warming we’ve had since 1900 that was directly caused by us.

We know that temperature has varied greatly over the millennia. We also know that for virtually all of that time, global warming and cooling were driven entirely by natural forces, which did not cease to operate at the beginning of the 20th century.

The claim that most modern warming is attributable to human activities is scientifically insupportable. The truth is that we do not know. We need to be able to separate what we do know from that which is only conjecture.

What is the basis for the “97% consensus” notion? Is it true? 

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better to know...?, biology+acidification

Pacific coral reef shows historic increase in climate resistance

by Newcastle University, Aug 22, 2023 in EurekAlert

Coral reefs in one part of the Pacific Ocean have likely adjusted to higher ocean temperatures which could reduce future bleaching impacts of climate change, new research reveals.

A Newcastle University-led study focused on the Pacific Island nation of Palau and has shown that historic increases in the thermal tolerance of coral reefs are possible. The results demonstrate how this capacity could reduce future bleaching impacts if global carbon emissions are cut down.

Drawing on decades of field observations, the scientists modelled many possible future coral bleaching trajectories for Palauan reefs, each with a different simulated rate of thermal tolerance enhancement. They found that if coral thermal tolerance continues to rise throughout the 21st century at the most-likely historic rate, significant reductions in bleaching impacts are possible.

Published in the journal, Nature Communications, the results affirm the scientific consensus that the severity of future coral bleaching depends on carbon emissions reductions. High-frequency bleaching can be fully mitigated at some reefs under low-to-middle emissions scenarios where, for example, the Paris Agreement commitments are fulfilled. However, such bleaching impacts are unavoidable under high emissions scenarios where society continues to rely on fossil-fuelled development.

Study lead author, Liam Lachs, is a part of Newcastle University’s Coralassist lab. “Our study indicates the presence of an ecological resilience to climate change, yet also highlights the need to fulfil Paris Agreement commitments to effectively preserve coral reefs,” Lachs said. “We quantified a natural increase in coral thermal tolerance over decadal time scales which can be directly compared to the rate of ocean warming. While our work offers a glimmer of hope, it also emphasises the need for continued action on reducing carbon emissions to mitigate climate change and secure a future for these vital ecosystems.”

Study co-author, Dr James Guest, of Newcastle University’s School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, added: “We know that coral reefs can increase their overall thermal tolerance over time by acclimatisation, genetic adaptation or shifts in community structure, however we know very little about the rates at which this is occurring. This study uses data from a remote Pacific coral reef system and estimates the rate of increase in tolerance since the late 1980s. The results provide some hope that reefs can keep up with increasing temperatures, but only if strong action is taken on climate change.”

This study was the result of a collaborative visit the lead author undertook in 2021 to work with Professor Simon Donner’s Climate and Coastal Ecosystems Laboratory at the University of British Columbia, Canada. “This study shows the potential for some coral reefs to become more resilient to future climate change-fuelled heat waves,” Prof. Donner said. “That resilience, however, can also come at a cost, in terms of reduced reef diversity and growth. Without sharp cuts in greenhouse gas emissions over the next two to three decades, the reefs in the Pacific won’t provide the resources and protection from waves that Pacific peoples have depended upon for centuries.”

 

Continuer la lecture de Pacific coral reef shows historic increase in climate resistance →

better to know...?, climate-debate

The Political Origins Of The Climate Change Swindle

by L. Balzer, A, Aug 15, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

A Canadian oil magnate and friend of David Rockefeller, Maurice Strong [pictured] set up the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1992.

Strong had been chairman of the 1972 Earth Day UN Conference, at which he advocated population reduction and the lowering of living standards in the interest of “saving the environment.” [emphasis, links added]

Strong asked, “Isn’t the only hope for the planet that the industrialized civilizations collapse? Isn’t it our responsibility to bring that about?”

He also boldly claimed, “Current lifestyles and consumption patterns of the affluent middle class – involving meat intake, use of fossil fuels, appliances, air-conditioning, and suburban housing – are not sustainable.”

Strong had helped found the Club of Rome in 1968, which incorrectly believed that Earth’s population was out of control and using up resources too fast.

Their beliefs stemmed from the mistaken idea advanced by Thomas Malthus in his 1798 essay that the world’s population would outgrow the food supply.

In his 1968 book, “The Population Bomb“, Paul Ehrlich revived Malthus’ idea.

Ehrlich predicted,

“The battle to feed humanity is over. In the 1970s, the world will undergo famines. Hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. Population control is the only answer.”

Although Ehrlich’s forecasts proved incorrect, many people, some of them billionaires, still believe the world’s population should be as low as one billion – not the current 7.5 billion. (Bill Gates stated this explicitly in a Ted Talk!)

They’re afraid that if Third World people get the energy they need to raise their living standards, the Earth’s population will rise further.

This couldn’t be more untrue. History has shown in every instance that when a population’s living standards increase, the birth rate decreases. This principle is known as the Demographic Transition.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

No, July Wasn’t The Warmest Month In Human History

by Dr M. Wielicki, Aug 14, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

What’s going on?

During the last month, we were bombarded with headlines such as:

This month is the planet’s hottest on record by far – and hottest in around 120,000 years, scientists say —CNN, July 27, 2023

July 2023 ‘Virtually Certain’ To Be Hottest Month In Human History —Forbes, July 27, 2023

So is there any validity to these claims… Was July the hottest month in human history? [emphasis, links added]

…snip…

Our civilization’s trajectory, from its humble beginnings in the wild to its current digital sophistication, serves as a testament to humanity’s relentless drive for advancement and ability to adapt.

The African Humid Period (AHP) and the rise of the Egyptian civilization…

The African Humid Period (AHP) is a climatic phase during the Holocene epoch characterized by much wetter conditions in large parts of Africa, especially the Sahara region, compared to the present day.

This significant shift in precipitation patterns had profound impacts on both the environment and early human societies of the continent.

The AHP roughly spanned from about 15,000 to 5,000 years ago, though exact timings can vary based on specific regions within Africa. It began at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum when ice sheets started retreating in the Northern Hemisphere.

One of the most dramatic manifestations of the AHP was the transformation of the Sahara desert. Today’s vast desert expanse was once a mosaic of grasslands, lakes, and rivers.

This “Green Sahara” supported a variety of wildlife, from large mammals like elephants and giraffes to a variety of fish in its waterways.

The wet conditions of the AHP supported a much denser human population in regions that are now desert. Archaeological evidence shows that these ancient Saharan communities engaged in fishing, hunting, cattle herding, and even agriculture.

The abundance of water and food allowed for relatively settled lifestyles compared to the more nomadic existences necessitated by the arid conditions that followed.

The primary driver behind the AHP is believed to be warmer summer temperatures and changes in the monsoon systems, which brought more rain to the African continent.

As these parameters shifted over millennia, the monsoons weakened, leading to the aridification of vast regions.

The African Humid Period serves as a reminder of the profound climatic variability our planet has experienced throughout relatively recent geological history at preindustrial levels of CO2, and the relative insensitivity of surface temperature and/or humidity and the concentration of GHG in the atmosphere.

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better to know...?

Stop Blaming Fires In Canada, Greece, And Now Maui On Climate Change

by Dr M. Wielicki, Aug 10, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

There is currently a wildfire on the Hawaiian island of Maui that has forced evacuations and led some people to flee into the ocean for safety.

The fires are being driven by strong winds and dry air, primarily associated with Hurricane Dora passing hundreds of miles to the south.

The fires have reportedly burned structures and prompted evacuations in Maui, particularly in the Upcountry and Lahaina areas. Lahaina is a popular tourist destination on the island’s northwest side. [emphasis, links added]

Multiple evacuation orders are in effect for the island and there are no details yet on the extent of the damage.

A dozen people were rescued by the Coast Guard after jumping into the ocean to reportedly avoid the flames. Acting Governor Sylvia Luke issued an emergency proclamation on behalf of Gov. Josh Green.

As with every natural disaster, the links to climate change were made almost immediately.

However, attributing a single wildfire directly to climate change is an oversimplification of the myriad factors at play.

Wildfires can be influenced by various causes, including local weather, forest management, human activities, and natural events like hurricanes passing and changing wind patterns.

Historically, the climate has always exhibited natural variability with periods of extreme conditions. It’s crucial to differentiate between this natural variation and the changes driven or intensified by human activities.

Of course that didn’t stop folks from attributing the fires in Maui directly to anthropogenic climate change…

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better to know...?, climate-debate

The Climate Crisis Frenzy Is a Mass Hysteria Movement

by W. Kovacs, Aug 11, 2023 in WUWT

Climate fear-mongering, eco-anxiety counseling and a rocky road to Third World status

 

Ever since the Biden administration promised to eliminate fossil fuels, climate activists have combined their quest to use the government to control society with creating a collective group possessed by illusions and excessive fears that climate change is destroying Planet Earth. This Climatism Collective believes that dismantling society will enable government to prevent the end of the world.

Researchers refer to such collective fears as mass hysteria. They consider it a psychogenic illness, “a condition that begins in the mind rather than the body.” It involves people feeling anxious, sick or crazed, notwithstanding the absence of any physical reason for their condition.

A recent Lancet study of 10,000 young people, ages 16–25, found that 59% were extremely worried about climate change, and 84% were at least moderately worried. The respondents suffered from sadness, anxiety and anger and felt powerless, helpless and guilty.

The authors concluded that climate anxiety is so great that these young people believe humanity is doomed, everything they value is being destroyed, and they should refrain from having children. They also believe government could protect them if it would listen to their feelings, validate and respect their beliefs and demands, and implement policies that eliminate fossil fuel use and “unsustainable” lifestyles.

Mass hysteria episodes have been recorded since the Middle Ages. There have been witch trials, screaming trances and even a “dancing plague” in 1518, with stressed-out participants dancing for weeks, sometimes until they were so tired they died.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Is this the week that Net Zero died?

by R. Schoellhammer, Aug 3, 2023 in UnHerd

A wave of climate realism is sweeping through Europe

NetZero is turning into a pipe dream. Credit: Getty

It has been a tough week for climate activists. First, the new head of the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Jim Skea, said we should not overstate the 1.5 degrees celsius warning, and that humanity will not end if we miss it. At the same time, wind projects are hitting new obstacles, with Vattenfall cancelling a new offshore project in the North Sea due to high costs, while also having a project in Sweden rejected because Stockholm sees potential “negative effects on the environment” from offshore wind installations.

Elsewhere in the world of renewables, a new report has shown that the production of solar panels is causing more emissions than previously thought, and the once much celebrated solar-powered mini-grids in India are falling apart. But it does not end there: the British Government has decided to cut costs of polluting and approve hundreds of new North Sea oil and gas licenses. This announcement may have upset Just Stop Oil activists, but the reality is that the world is using more oil than ever and Britain needs to be prepared.

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Also here

better to know...?

Global boiling? Don’t be ridiculous

by B. O’Neill, Jul 31, 2023 in Spiked

It’s time to stand up to the eco-fearmongering of our medieval elites.

And just like that we’ve entered a new epoch. ‘The era of global warming has ended, the era of global boiling has arrived’, decreed UN chief António Guterres last week. It’s hard to know what’s worse: the hubris and arrogance of this globalist official who imagines he has the right to declare the start of an entire new age, or the servile compliance of the media elites who lapped up his deranged edict about the coming heat death of Earth. ‘Era of global boiling has arrived and it is terrifying’, said the front page of the Guardian, as if Guterres’s word was gospel, his every utterance a divine truth. We urgently need to throw the waters of reason on this delirious talk of a ‘boiling’ planet.

Guterres issued his neo-papal bull about the boiling of our world in response to the heatwaves that have hit some countries over the past two weeks. ‘Climate change is here [and] it is terrifying’, he said. We see ‘families running from the flames [and] workers collapsing in scorching heat’ and ‘it is just the beginning’, he said, doing his best impersonation of a 1st-century millenarian crackpot. In fact, forget ‘climate change’, he said. Forget ‘global warming’, too. What we’re witnessing is a boiling. It all brings to mind the Book of Job which warned that the serpent Leviathan would cause the seas to ‘boil like a cauldron’. Leviathan’s back, only we call him climate change now.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Record Temperature In China Not All It Seems

by P. Homewood, Jul 18, 2023 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

BEIJING, July 17 (Reuters) – A remote township in China’s arid northwest endured temperatures of more than 52 Celsius (126 Fahrenheit) on Sunday, state media reported, setting a record for a country that was battling minus 50C weather just six months ago.

Temperatures at Sanbao township in Xinjiang’s Turpan Depression soared as high as 52.2C on Sunday, state-run Xinjiang Daily reported on Monday, with the record heat expected to persist at least another five days.

The Sunday temperature broke a previous record of 50.3C, measured in 2015 near Ayding in the depression, a vast basin of sand dunes and dried-up lakes more than 150 m (492 ft) below sea level.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-logs-522-celsius-extreme-weather-rewrites-records-2023-07-17/

I can’t see the heatwave in Beijing particularly affecting that family crossing the road! Looks like they’re having a nice day out.

But back to Sanbao, which sits in the Turpan Depression that is as much as 150m below sea level. According to Wikipedia, the Turpan has a harsh desert climate, and is counted as one of the Furnaces of China. It is believed to be the second or third deepest depression on Earth. it is also the hottest and driest area in China during the summer.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Is The Dry Getting Drier?

by W. Eschenbach, Jul 16 , 2023 in WUWT

So I was wandering through the marvelous KNMI website, and I came across data for the Palmer Self-Correcting Drought Severity Index. This is an index that measures the drought conditions in some given area. The source website says:

The scPDSI (self-correcting Palmer Drought Severity Index) is a variant on the original PDSI of Palmer (1965), with the aim to make results from different climate regimes more comparable. As with the PDSI, the scPDSI is calculated from time series of precipitation and temperature, together with fixed parameters related to the soil/surface characteristics at each location.

Now, the KNMI site only offers linear trends of data. But if you look at the bottom of the KNMI page linked above, or other pages at that level of inquiry, you’ll find that there is an option to download the NetCDF version of the data. As in this case, this NetCDF data is often gridded.

And using that NetCDF gridded file lets me make a graphic showing the average scPDSI for the globe.

Figure 1. Yes, indeed, Australia is a dry country

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Nobel Winner Says Climate Science Now A ‘Massive Shock-Journalistic Pseudoscience’

by T. Andy, July 13; 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

Dr. John F. Clauser, a joint recipient of the 2022 Nobel Prize in Physics, has criticized the climate emergency narrative calling it “a dangerous corruption of science that threatens the world’s economy and the well-being of billions of people.”

Along with two others, Dr. Clauser, an experimental and theoretical physicist, was the 2022 recipient of the Nobel Prize for work done in the 1970s that showed “quantum entanglement” allowed particles such as photons to effectively interact at great distances, seemingly to require communication exceeding the speed of light. [emphasis, links added]

He has criticized the awarding of the 2021 Nobel Prize for work in the development of computer models predicting global warming, according to a coalition of scientists and commentators who argue that an informed discussion about CO2 would recognize its importance in sustaining plant life.

In a statement issued by the CO2 coalition, “Nobel Laureate John Clauser Elected to the CO2 Coalition Board of Directors”, CO2 Coalition Dr. Clauser said that “there is no climate crisis and that increasing CO2concentrations will benefit the world.”

He criticized the prevalent climate models as being unreliable and not accounting for the dramatic temperature-stabilizing feedback of clouds, which he says is more than fifty times as powerful as the radiative forcing effect of CO2.

Dr. Clauser notes that bright white clouds are clearly the most conspicuous feature in satellite photos of the Earth.

These clouds are mostly produced by the evaporation of seawater by sunlight. They variably cover one-third to two-thirds of the Earth’s surface.

Most of the energy incident on the earth is in the form of visible sunlight. Clouds reflect sunlight energy back into space before it can reach the Earth’s surface to heat it.

 

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better to know...?, climate and geology, climate-debate

Where Does Ocean Heat Come From?

by Dr M. Wielicki, May 24, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

First, do we really know the temperature and thus heat content of the ocean?

The ocean is vast and covers ~70% of the Earth’s surface, making it the largest system on the planet. Despite its size, only a small portion of the ocean has been explored and mapped in detail.

It is estimated that <20% of the world’s oceans have been mapped and explored to date. [emphasis, links added]

This is largely due to the difficulties and challenges associated with ocean exploration, such as the high pressure and extreme environments found in the deep ocean, as well as the high cost of research vessels, equipment, and technology.

Most of the ocean that has been explored in detail is located near the coasts or in shallow waters, where it is more accessible to research vessels and equipment, but usually far away from the heat sources of mid-ocean ridges.

The deep ocean, which makes up the majority of the ocean’s volume, remains largely unexplored, with less than 5% of the ocean floor having been mapped in high resolution.

Advances in technology, such as underwater drones and submersibles, are helping to improve our understanding of the ocean and its ecosystems, and it is likely that our knowledge of the ocean will continue to expand in the coming decades.

Temperature measurements in the ocean are typically taken using a variety of instruments. These instruments can be deployed from research vessels or from moored or drifting buoys, and they collect temperature data at different depths throughout the ocean.

The amount of the ocean that is measured for temperature varies depending on the method of measurement and the specific objectives of the research.

However, it is estimated that significantly less than 10% of the world’s oceans have been sampled for temperatures at depths greater than 2,000 meters.

Despite the relatively limited coverage of temperature measurements in the deep ocean, there are ongoing efforts to improve our understanding of the ocean’s temperature structure and variability.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

“No Bricks, No Glass, No Cement” – What Net Zero 2050 Demands According to Government-Funded Report

by . C. Morrison, Apr 29, 2023 in WUWT

No bricks, the walls and foundations made of compacted earth, cement made from clay and glass scavenged from demolition skips are just some of the construction changes needed to comply with Net Zero by 2050. The latest paper from Government-funded U.K. FIRES looks to “minimise new construction”, and notes the shape of the urban environment will change, allowing for “denser living and reduced transport needs”.

The latest U.K. FIRES paper seems to have slipped out quietly at the end of last year and has to date attracted little publicity. But the group, which comprises a number of academics led by Cambridge engineering professor Julian Allwood, made headlines around the world recently with previous work noting that all flying and shipping must stop by 2050, beef and lamb must be banned, and only 60% of energy will be available to cook food and heat homes. The group, which receives £5 million from Government sources,  is interesting because it bases its recommendations on the brutal, and many would argue honest, reality of absolute Net Zero. It does not assume that technological processes still to be perfected or even invented will somehow lead to minimal disturbance in comfortable industrialised lifestyles. It could be further argued that its continued existence and pronouncements are important, since they highlight the dishonesty and deceit that surrounds many other Net Zero promoters.

U.K. FIRES sees the future of construction based on stone, earth and timber, along with components “reused and repurposed” from demolition. Recycled steel, cement and bricks can be used, although this will be “constrained” – rationed might be a better word – by a supply of “non-emitting electricity under high demand”. Transformational construction changes will take longer to achieve, state the authors, but the U.K.’s ambitious target of a 45% reduction in emissions by 2030, “can only be achieved through reduced material demand”.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Australia-wide assessment: climate change or instrument change?

by J. Marohasy, April 2023 in WUWT

In the five years following the installation of probes in automatic weather stations (AWS) as they replaced mercury thermometers across Australia, the annual frequency of extremely hot days increased by an average 18.7%.

This new analysis by Perth journalist and climate researcher Chris Gillham makes a mockery of claims by the Bureau that the transition from mercury thermometers to automatic weather stations has had no effect on temperatures, and so there is no need to transcribe or make public the parallel data.

Chris has found that a majority of these AWS stations had an average 62.8% increase in their 99th percentile observations. These are the hottest 1 per cent of days calculated since the start year of each station.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Earth Day At 52: None of the eco-doomsday predictions have come true

by NetZeroWatch, Apr 22, 2023

From predicting ecological collapse and the end of civilization to warnings that the world is running out of oil, all environmental doomsday predictions of the first Earth Day in 1970 have turned out to be flat out wrong.

More than three decades before Greta Thunberg was born — the Swedish environmental activist on climate change — more than 20 million Americans participated in the first Earth Day on April 22, 1970.

We now look back at quotes from Earth Day, Then and Now,” by Ronald Bailey of the spectacularly wrong apocalyptic predictions from Earth Day 1970.

Considering the current doomsday predictions scaremonger activists are verbalizing about global warming that will result in the demise of civilization within the next decade, many of those unscientific 1970 predictions are being reincarnated on today’s social and news media outlets.

Many of the same are being regurgitated today, but the best prediction from the first earth day five decades ago, yes 50 years ago, was that the “the pending ice age as earth had been cooling since 1950 and that the temperature would be 11 degrees cooler by the year 2000”.

The 1970’s were a lousy decade. Embarrassing movies and dreadful music reflected the national doomsday mood following an unpopular war, endless political scandals, and a faltering economy.

The first Earth Day was celebrated in 1970 — okay, “celebrated” doesn’t capture the funereal tone of the event. The events (organized in part by then hippie and now convicted murderer Ira Einhorn) predicted death, destruction and disease unless we did exactly as progressives commanded.data.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Skepticism Of Human-Caused Climate Change Rising Globally

by C. Morrison, Apr 21, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

Skepticism about human-caused climate change continues to increase around the world.

A recent poll conducted by a group within the University of Chicago found that belief in humans causing all or most climate change had slumped in America to 49% from the 60% level recorded just five years ago. [emphasis, links added]

Similar falls have been recorded elsewhere, with a recent IPSOS survey covering two-thirds of the world’s population revealing that nearly four people in every 10 believe climate change is mainly due to natural causes.

Perhaps the most surprising statistic from the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC) survey is that 70% of Americans are unwilling to spend more than $2.50 a week to combat climate change.

Nearly four in 10 Americans said they were unwilling to pay a couple of dimes.

Despite decades of relentless green doomsday agitprop designed to corral populations into living under a collectivist Net Zero-ordered society, it appears that the vast majority of Americans are unwilling to pay even the chump change in their back pockets to stop climate change.

Surveys such as EPIC and IPSOS speak to the fundamental flaw in the ‘settled’ science surrounding the suggestion that humans burning fossil fuels are causing the climate to break down.

The hypothesis is unproven – not a single science paper provides conclusive proof.

Natural causes and the proposition that carbon dioxide becomes ‘saturated’ beyond certain atmospheric levels are more convincing explanations for scientific observations.

Fears that mainstream climate science is heavily corrupted by faulty data, pseudoscientific modeling, and outright political cherry-picking are becoming more widespread.

 

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