by Carl Brehmer, November 21, 2017 in Principia.Sci.International
Archives par mot-clé : Temperature
Besting the BEST surface temperature record
by PJ Michaels and R Maue, November 23, 2017 in WUWT
Let’s face it, global surface temperature histories measured by thermometers are a mess. Recording stations come on-and offline seemingly at random. The time of day when the high and low temperatures for the previous 24 hours are recorded varies, often changing at the same station. Local conditions can bias temperatures. And the “urban heat island” can artificially warm readings with population levels as low as 2500. Neighboring reporting stations can diverge significantly from each other.
Temperatures, Sea Levels, Climate Dynamics ‘Have No Apparent Relationship To Atmospheric CO2’
by Kenneth Richard, November 23, 2017 in NoTricksZone
According to the most basic precepts of anthropogenic global warming (AGW), variations in CO2 concentrations exert significant control on sea surface temperatures, glaciers, sea levels, and generalized climate dynamics (i.e., precipitation patterns).
In particular, high CO2 concentrations, driven by human activity, are presumed to cause dangerously warming ocean waters, rapid glacier melt and sea level rise, and overall disruption to the Earth’s biosphere.
Newly published scientific papers wholly undermine this popularized conceptualization.
In fact, according to Bertrand et al. (2017), there has been a “marked cooling” of sea surface temperatures in the southernmost South America region during the last ~800 years — 3°C to 4°C colder than during the Medieval and Roman warm periods — that has continued unabated into “the most recent decades”.
(…)
New Antarctic heat map reveals sub-ice hotspots
by A. Dinar, November 13, 2017 in GeoSpace-AGU
An international team of scientists, led by British Antarctic Survey (BAS), has produced a new map showing how much heat from the Earth’s interior is reaching the base of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. The map is part of a new paper accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.
The team has produced the most up to date, accurate and high-resolution map of the so called ‘geothermal heat flux’ at the base of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Of the basic information that shapes and controls ice flow, the most poorly known about is this heat
New Antarctic Temperature Reconstruction
by Steve McIntyre, November 20, 2017 in ClimateAudit
Stenni et al (2017), Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years, was published pdf this week by Climate of the Past. It includes (multiple variations) of a new Antarctic temperature reconstruction, in which 112 d18O and dD isotope series are combined into regional and continental reconstructions.
Reconciling Model-Observation Reconciliations
by Steve McIntyre, November 18, 2017 in ClimateAudit
(…) What does this all mean? Are models consistent with observations or not? Up to the recent very large El Nino, it seemed that even climate scientists were on the verge of conceding that models were running too hot, but the El Nino has given them a reprieve. After the very large 1998 El Nino, there was about 15 years of apparent “pause”. Will there be a similar pattern after the very large 2017 El Nino?
2017 GLOBAL TEMPERATURE: TOO EARLY TO TELL
by Dr David Whitehouse, November 7, 2017 in GWPF
It is far too early to judge this year’s global temperature developments and their significance regarding the long-term warming trend.
The United Nations climate change conference, held in Bonn this year, is always the cue for press releases from the World Meteorological Office and the UK Met Office in which they give their assessment of the year based on 9-10 months of data.
Dealing with the El Nino of recent years (and don’t forget the ‘Pacific Blob’ before that) they have had difficulty with explaining what part of the record temperature was due to El Nino and natural, and what was anthropogenic.
Meshing issues on global temperatures – warming data where there isn’t any
by Tim Crome, November 10, 2017 in WUWT
The plots attached here are taken from the MOYHU blog maintained by Nick Stokes here. The software on the blog allows the global temperature anomaly data for each month for the last several years, it also allows the mesh showing the temperature measurement points to be turned on and off.
Most Modern Warming, Including For Recent Decades, Is Due To Solar Forcing, Not CO2
by Kenneth Richard, November 9, 2017 in NoTricksZone
Though advocates of the dangerous anthropogenic global warming (AGW) narrative may not welcome the news, evidence that modern day global warming has largely been driven by natural factors – especially solar activity – continues to pile up.
Much of the debate about the Sun’s role in climate change is centered around reconstructions of solar activity that span the last 400 years, which now include satellite data from the late 1970s to present.
Hot News from the Antarctic Underground
by Alan Buis, November, 7, 2017, in JPL, NASA
Study Bolsters Theory of Heat Source Under West Antarctica
A new NASA study adds evidence that a geothermal heat source called a mantle plume lies deep below Antarctica’s Marie Byrd Land, explaining some of the melting that creates lakes and rivers under the ice sheet. Although the heat source isn’t a new or increasing threat to the West Antarctic ice sheet, it may help explain why the ice sheet collapsed rapidly in an earlier era of rapid climate change, and why it is so unstable today.
Northern South China Sea SST changes over the last two millennia and possible linkage with solar irradiance
by Deming Kong et al., November 30, 2017 in Quaternary International
High-resolution surface temperature records over the last two millennia are crucial to understanding the forcing and response mechanism of Earth’s climate. Here we report a bidecadal-resolution sea surface temperature (SST) record based on long-chain alkenones in a gravity sediment core retrieved from the northern South China Sea. SST values varied between 26.7 and 27.5 °C, with a total variability ∼1 °C over the last 2000 years.
Can You Explain UAH6? (Now Includes September Data)
by Werner Brozek, November 6, 2017 in WUWT
At Dr. Roy Spencer’s site, regular commenter Des posted a very interesting analysis with respect to September 2017 on UAH6 and the Top 10 first-9-months-of-the-year. Des has graciously allowed me to use their work. Everything that appears below is from Des until you see the statement “Written by Des.” below:
Top 10 Septembers on the record:
1. 2017 (+0.54)
2. 2016 (+0.45) … EL NINO
3. 1998 (+0.44) … EL NINO
4. 2010 (+0.37) … EL NINO
5. 2009 (+0.27) … EL NINO
6. 2005 (+0.25) … EL NINO
7. 2015 (+0.25) … EL NINO
8. 1995 (+0.22) … EL NINO
9. 2012 (+0.22)
10. 2013 (+0.22)(…)
UAH Global Temperature Update for October 2017: +0.63 deg. C
by Dr Roy Spencer, November 2, 2017 in NoTricksZone
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for October, 2017 was +0.63 deg. C, up from the September, 2017 value of +0.54 deg. C (click for full size version).
Oxygen-18 Stability in Foraminifera fossils, implications in paleoclimatology
by Andy May, November 4, 2017
18O is a rare isotope of oxygen. The ratio of 18O to the normal 16O in foraminifera fossils (“forams”) can be used to estimate paleo-ocean temperatures. Higher values mean lower temperatures. A recent article on geologypage.com (here) led me to Bernard, et al., 2017, which has experimental data that suggest 18O concentrations can be altered in fossils by solid-state diffusion after fossilization. This can corrupt the measurement and the resulting calculated temperature
Température des océans: la fiabilité des calculs remise en cause
by Le Vif, 31 octobre 2017
Les scientifiques en déduisent que le réchauffement global actuel pourrait potentiellement être “sans précédent” sur les 100 derniers millions d’années. L’étude de ces géochimistes, publiée dans Nature Communications, constitue une sorte de pavé dans la mare des paléoclimatologues qui utilisent depuis les années 1950 ce “paléothermomètre” aidant à bâtir les modèles actuels sur le réchauffement climatique
HadCRUT4.5 anomaly for September 2017 = 0.54C
by Clive Best, October 29, 2017
The HadCRUT4.5 temperature anomaly for September calculated by spherical triangulation is 0.54C, a fall of 0.17C since August. Temperatures have seemingly returned to a long trend after the 2016 El Nino.
Matt McGrath’s El Nino Scaremongering
by Paul Homewood, October 30, 2017 in NotLofPeopleKnowThat
(…) There is nothing unusual at all about this increase in CO2. It is a result of a perfectly natural event, El Nino (…)
Global Ocean Cooling in September
by Ron Clutz, October 27, 2017 in ScienceMatters
September Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are now available, and we see downward spikes in ocean temps everywhere, led by sharp decreases in the Tropics and SH, reversing the bump upward last month. The Tropical cooling in particular factors into forecasters favoring an unusually late La Nina appearance in coming months.
See also here
A skeptic attempts to break the ‘pal review’ glass ceiling in climate modeling
by Pat Frank, October 23, 2017 in WUWT
Regular readers at Anthony’s Watts Up With That will know that for several years, since July 2013 in fact, I have been trying to publish an analysis of climate model error.
The analysis propagates a lower limit calibration error of climate models through their air temperature projections. Anyone reading here can predict the result. Climate models are utterly unreliable. For a more extended discussion see my prior WUWT post on this topic (thank-you Anthony).
Numerical simulations to quantify the diurnal contrast in local climate trend induced by desert urbanization
by S. Kamal et al., September 30, 2017 in Environment SystemsDecisions
Within this scope, the results reveal a pattern of the climatic effect of desert urbanization with nighttime warming and weaker, but significant daytime cooling. This effect is confined to the urban area and is not sensitive to the size of the city or the detailed land cover types in the surrounding areas. The pattern is identified in both winter and summer.
Does a Global Temperature Exist?
by Essex C, McKitrick R., Andresen B., June 2006 in J. Non-Eq.Thermodynamics
Physical, mathematical and observational grounds are employed to show that there is no physically meaningful global temperature for the Earth in the context of the issue of global warming. While it is always possible to construct statistics for any given set of local temperature data, an infinite range of such statistics is mathematically permissible if physical principles provide no explicit basis for choosing among them. Distinct and equally valid statistical rules can and do show opposite trends when applied to the results of computations from physical models and real data in the atmosphere. A given temperature field can be interpreted as both “warming” and “cooling” simultaneously, making the concept of warming in the context of the issue of global warming physically ill-posed.
Plummeting October 15 Temperatures In The US
by Tony Heller, October 15, 2017 in The Depl.Clim.Sci.Blog
October 15 used to be a warm day in the US, but temperatures have plummeted over the past century.
Durable Original Measurement Uncertainty
by Kip Hansen, October 14, 2017 in WUWT
Temperature and Water Level (MSL) are two hot topic measurements being widely bandied about and vast sums of money are being invested in research to determine whether, on a global scale, these physical quantities — Global Average Temperature and Global Mean Sea Level — are changing, and if changing, at what magnitude and at what rate. The Global Averages of these ever-changing, continuous variables are being said to be calculated to extremely precise levels — hundredths of a degree for temperature and millimeters for Global Sea Level — and minute changes on those scales are claimed to be significant and important.
Global Temperature Report: September 2017
by Anthony Watts, October 2, 2017 in WUWT
Warmest September in satellite temperature record
Boosted by warmer than normal water in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean that peaked in June and July, global average temperatures in the atmosphere rose to record levels in September, according to Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. Not only was it the warmest September on record, it was also the warmest month (compared to seasonal norms) in the 38-year satellite temperature record that wasn’t associated with an “officially recognized” El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event.
Climate models overheat
by Michel de Rougemont, September 30, 2017 in WUWT
(…) We are left with conjectures and other speculation, both in the recent past and for the future. For this, climatologists develop models with which they can test their hypotheses. But these models are obviously overheating. (…)
See also here