Study: no acceleration in global warming, climate sensitivity to CO2 too high

by Anthony Watts, November 29, 2017 in WUWT


New research yields old result: Climate warming slow, steady. Observed value is half that of CMIP5 climate models.

The rate at which Earth’s atmosphere is warming has not significantly accelerated over the past 23 years, according to research at The University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH).

If you take away the transient cooling in 1983 and 1992 caused by two major volcanic eruptions in the preceding years, the remaining underlying warming trend in the bottom eight kilometers (almost five miles) of the atmosphere was 0.096 C (about 0.17° Fahrenheit) per decade between January 1979 and June 2017.

That was unexpectedly close to the 0.09 C warming trend found when similar research was published in 1994 with only 15 years of data, said Dr. John Christy, director of UAH’s Earth System Science Center.

See also here

Two inches of snow will fall TONIGHT before the coldest night of the year hits TOMORROW with temperatures of -10C and wintry showers

by A Matthews and M Duell, November 29, 2017 in MailOnline


  • Widespread frost and snowfall is on the way with temperatures plummeting in London by this evening

  • Parts of Scotland could fall to -10C (14F), lower than the -8C forecast in Lapland and OC in St Petersburg

  • Met Office has issued ice warnings for northern Scotland and England  with 2in inches of snow set to fall

  • Snow is also forecast for North East England tomorrow including up to 4in on the North York Moors

 

Global Temperature Trends Based On Non-Existent Data

by P. Homewood, November 28, 2017 in NotaLotofpeopleKnowThat


We are all too familiar with graphs showing how much global temperatures have risen since the 19thC.

The HADCRUT version above is typical, and also very precise, with fairly tight error bars even in the early part of the record.

One wonders where they got the data to work all this out, because it certainly could not have come from thermometers.

All of the major global temperature datasets rely heavily on the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN). Yet as the “Overview of the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily Database”, published by Matthew Menne et al in 2012, rather inconveniently showed, most of the world had little or no temperature data in the 19thC, and even up to 1950.

Are underwater volcanoes causing global warming? Oceanic eruptions may have a greater effect on climate than first thought

by Richard Gray, February 6, 2015 in MailOnline


 

  • Geophysicists at Columbia University have found underwater volcanoes erupt in regular cycles that range from a fortnight to 100,000 years
  • They claim that volcanoes on the sea floor are currently experiencing a lull
  • They warn an increase in eruptions will contribute more to climate change 
  • Some climate models have assumed they erupt at a steady rate over time
  • The new research shows they change with the seasons and Earth’s orbit 

 

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Causal feedbacks in climate change

by E.H. van Nes et al., March 30, 2015 in Nature Climate Change


The statistical association between temperature and greenhouse gases over glacial cycles is well documented, but causality behind this correlation remains difficult to extract directly from the data.

We show that such variable time lags are typical for complex nonlinear systems such as the climate, prohibiting straightforward use of correlation lags to infer causation.

Core of climate science is in the real-world data

by Eric Worrall, November 22, 2017 in WUWT


Figure 1 shows one example of data derived from such proxy sources. The top panel of the figure shows a declining temperature trend over the 8,000-year period from the Holocene Climate Optimum to the modern warm period (left-hand scale). It also shows that this location experienced numerous cycles of warming and cooling that involved temperature changes of the order of two degrees Celsius.

Arctic sea ice expanding faster than normal

by Anthony Watts, November 21, 2017 in WUWT


Rapid expansion of the Arctic sea ice cover is the norm for October as solar input dwindles and the remaining heat in the upper ocean is released upwards, warming the lower atmosphere and escaping to space. Because of late season growth, the seasonal Antarctic maximum we previously reported as occurring on September 15 was exceeded, with a new maximum set on October 11 and 12. This is the second-lowest and second-latest seasonal maximum extent in the satellite record.

Unique underwater stalactites

by Heidelberg University, November 24, 2017 in ScienceDaily


In recent years, researchers have identified a small group of stalactites that appear to have calcified underwater instead of in a dry cave. The Hells Bells in the El Zapote cave near Puerto Morelos on the Yucatán Peninsula are just such formations. Scientists have recently investigated how these bell-shaped, meter-long formations developed, assisted by bacteria and algae.