Going To Zero

by Willis Eschenbach, December 12, 2018 in WUWT

I keep reading about all kinds of crazy schemes to reduce US CO2 emissions. Now, I don’t think that CO2 is the secret knob that controls the climate. I think that the earth has a host of emergent thermoregulatory mechanisms that act to keep the temperature within narrow limits (e.g. 0.6°C temperature change over the entire 20th Century). I don’t believe the claims that the modern changes in CO2 will affect the temperature.

But solely for the purposes of this post, let’s assume that the alarmists are correct. And for purposes of discussion only, let’s assume that the Earth’s temperature is free to go up and down any amount. Let’s assume that CO2 is, in fact, the secret control knob that controls the temperature of the earth. And let’s further assume that the pundits are right that the “climate sensitivity” is three degrees of warming for every doubling of CO2.

And finally, let’s assume that in 2018 the US magically stopped emitting any CO2 at all.

With all of those assumptions as prologue, here’s the question of interest.

Other things being equal, if the US stopped emitting CO2 entirely in 2018, and stayed at zero CO2 emissions indefinitely, how much cooler would that make the planet in the year 2050?

Five degrees cooler? Two degrees? One degree?



Figure 1. Historical CO2 emissions. Data from CDIAC and BP Statistical Review of World Energy

China’s Climate U-Turn

by P. Homewood, December 12, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

A must read GWPF analysis of developments in China’s energy policy since the Paris Agreement:


Patricia Adams is an economist and the executive director of Probe International, a Toronto based NGO that has been involved in the Chinese environmental movement since its beginnings in the mid-1980s.

Her paper can be read here:


She is confirming much of what I have said in recent years. The only thing I would take issue with his her description of there being a U-Turn. In my view, China never had the slightest intention of being serious about cutting emissions.

Cop 24 : le voyage tous frais payés des 406 délégués guinéens

by F. Vahrenholtz & S. Lüning, 12 décembre 2018 in Contrepoints

Un article de NoTricksZone

La conférence sur le climat de Katowice bat son plein et diverses initiatives visant à réduire les émissions de dioxyde de carbone sont à l’ordre du jour : manger moins de viande, se chauffer moins, prendre moins l’avion. Dans ce dernier cas, bien sûr, la conférence confine elle-même à l’absurde.

Il aurait été facile de transformer la conférence en une réunion sur Internet avec retransmission en direct et commentaires en ligne. Mais il aurait manqué quelque chose à ce long et merveilleux voyage d’affaires avec ses réceptions, ses indemnités journalières et ses réunions d’avant Noël entre sauveteurs du climat. Cette fois-ci, plus de 22 000 participants se sont rendus en Pologne, la plupart confortablement en avion. Les délégations les plus nombreuses à la Conférence sur le climat venaient d’Afrique.

La Guinée envoie 406 délégués cette année, la République démocratique du Congo y est présente avec 237 participants et la Côte d’Ivoire envoie 191 ressortissants en Pologne. La liste des participants est disponible sur la page d’accueil de la conférence en format pdf et compte 1084 pages.

Late Summer Arctic Ice Volume Has Been Growing Since 2007…Contradicts Earlier Climate Predictions

by Kirye, December 12, 2018 in NoTricksZone

The media, alarmist scientists and many leading policymakers often tell the public “the Arctic is rapidly melting”. And if a poll were done today, a vast majority of the people in Japan and elsewhere would say this is true. Unfortunately they have become the victims of “fake news”.

Luckily we have some hard data from the Arctic. And if one looks at them, it is true that sea ice has seen a declining trend – if we go back 40 years.

Yet, if we look at the past 12 years, we see that the trend for minimum has stopped, and one could argue even reversed: