Tous les articles par Alain Préat

Full-time professor at the Free University of Brussels, Belgium apreat@gmail.com apreat@ulb.ac.be • Department of Earth Sciences and Environment Res. Grp. - Biogeochemistry & Modeling of the Earth System Sedimentology & Basin Analysis • Alumnus, Collège des Alumni, Académie Royale de Sciences, des Lettres et des Beaux Arts de Belgique (mars 2013). http://www.academieroyale.be/cgi?usr=2a8crwkksq&lg=fr&pag=858&rec=0&frm=0&par=aybabtu&id=4471&flux=8365323 • Prof. Invited, Université de Mons-Hainaut (2010-present-day) • Prof. Coordinator and invited to the Royal Academy of Sciences of Belgium (Belgian College) (2009- present day) • Prof. partim to the DEA (third cycle) led by the University of Lille (9 universities from 1999 to 2004) - Prof. partim at the University of Paris-Sud/Orsay, European-Socrates Agreement (1995-1998) • Prof. partim at the University of Louvain, Convention ULB-UCL (1993-2000) • Since 2015 : Member of Comité éditorial de la Revue Géologie de la France http://geolfrance.brgm.fr • Since 2014 : Regular author of texts for ‘la Revue Science et Pseudosciences’ http://www.pseudo-sciences.org/ • Many field works (several weeks to 2 months) (Meso- and Paleozoic carbonates, Paleo- to Neoproterozoic carbonates) in Europe, USA (Nevada), Papouasia (Holocene), North Africa (Algeria, Morrocco, Tunisia), West Africa (Gabon, DRC, Congo-Brazzaville, South Africa, Angola), Iraq... Recently : field works (3 to 5 weeks) Congo- Brazzaville 2012, 2015, 2016 (carbonate Neoproterozoic). Degree in geological sciences at the Free University of Brussels (ULB) in 1974, I went to Algeria for two years teaching mining geology at the University of Constantine. Back in Belgium I worked for two years as an expert for the EEC (European Commission), first on the prospecting of Pb and Zn in carbonate environments, then the uranium exploration in Belgium. Then Assistant at ULB, Department of Geology I got the degree of Doctor of Sciences (Geology) in 1985. My thesis, devoted to the study of the Devonian carbonate sedimentology of northern France and southern Belgium, comprised a significant portion of field work whose interpretation and synthesis conducted to the establishment of model of carbonate platforms and ramps with reefal constructions. I then worked for Petrofina SA and shared a little more than two years in Angola as Director of the Research Laboratory of this oil company. The lab included 22 people (micropaleontology, sedimentology, petrophysics). My main activity was to interpret facies reservoirs from drillings in the Cretaceous, sometimes in the Tertiary. I carried out many studies for oil companies operating in this country. I returned to the ULB in 1988 as First Assistant and was appointed Professor in 1990. I carried out various missions for mining companies in Belgium and oil companies abroad and continued research, particularly through projects of the Scientific Research National Funds (FNRS). My research still concerns sedimentology, geochemistry and diagenesis of carbonate rocks which leads me to travel many countries in Europe or outside Europe, North Africa, Papua New Guinea and the USA, to conduct field missions. Since the late 90's, I expanded my field of research in addressing the problem of mass extinctions of organisms from the Upper Devonian series across Euramerica (from North America to Poland) and I also specialized in microbiological and geochemical analyses of ancient carbonate series developing a sustained collaboration with biologists of my university. We are at the origin of a paleoecological model based on the presence of iron-bacterial microfossils, which led me to travel many countries in Europe and North Africa. This model accounts for the red pigmentation of many marble and ornamental stones used in the world. This research also has implications on the emergence of Life from the earliest stages of formation of Earth, as well as in the field of exobiology or extraterrestrial life ... More recently I invested in the study from the Precambrian series of Gabon and Congo. These works with colleagues from BRGM (Orléans) are as much about the academic side (consequences of the appearance of oxygen in the Paleoproterozoic and study of Neoproterozoic glaciations) that the potential applications in reservoir rocks and source rocks of oil (in collaboration with oil companies). Finally I recently established a close collaboration with the Royal Institute of Natural Sciences of Belgium to study the susceptibility magnetic signal from various European Paleozoic series. All these works allowed me to gain a thorough understanding of carbonate rocks (petrology, micropaleontology, geobiology, geochemistry, sequence stratigraphy, diagenesis) as well in Precambrian (2.2 Ga and 0.6 Ga), Paleozoic (from Silurian to Carboniferous) and Mesozoic (Jurassic and Cretaceous) rocks. Recently (2010) I have established a collaboration with Iraqi Kurdistan as part of a government program to boost scientific research in this country. My research led me to publish about 180 papers in international and national journals and presented more than 170 conference papers. I am a holder of eight courses at the ULB (5 mandatory and 3 optional), excursions and field stages, I taught at the third cycle in several French universities and led or co-managed a score of 20 Doctoral (PhD) and Post-doctoral theses and has been the promotor of more than 50 Masters theses.
climate-debate, Cooling

LARGEST SUMMER SEA ICE EXTENT SINCE 2008 TRAPS ARCTIC SHIPS; + COLDEST JULY AIRMASS IN 70 YEARS BLOWS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT

by Cap Allon, July 19, 2022 in Electroverse

The mainstream are heat-chasers. They report only on stories that fit the AGW Party agenda. This cherry-picking leads to a painfully misinformed public when it comes to the climate–which is exactly where they want us.

It usually stands, however, that if the MSM goes silent on a particular locale then it’s probably because that particular locale isn’t ‘behaving’ as they would like.

ase in point today: we have the Arctic and Greenland refusing to play ball.

Earth’s most-northern reaches are actually experiencing persistent and long-lasting COOLING, which is far more telling than a brief burst of heat in, for example, Western Europe, which, 1) is forecast to be over before it’s even really begun, and 2) can be tied to entirely natural forcings–namely low solar activity and a violently ‘buckling’ jet stream flow (more on that below).

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climate-debate

UK heatwave: How do temperatures compare with 1976?

by P. Homewood, July 24, 2022 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

People on social media have been comparing the high temperatures in much of the UK with the heatwave of 1976, suggesting that the severity of the current hot weather is being exaggerated.

So, what does the evidence show?

How hot was the summer of 1976?

The peak that year was 35.9C. That has been beaten by the current temperatures, with 40.3C recorded so far.

The heatwave of 1976 started in June and lasted for two months. There was a lack of rainfall and a significant drought, with the government enforcing water rationing.

The heatwave was rare for that decade. The average maximum temperature in July in the 1970s was 18.7C. In the 2010s, it was more than 20C.

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climate-debate

The European Heat Wave and Global Warming

by Guest Blogger, July 21, 2022 in WUWT

From the Cliff Mass Weather Blog

There is a lot of talk about the short-term European heatwave with some suggesting that the record-breaking warmth is the result of climate change/global warming.

Some of the media and climate advocates have been over the top in their claims (see below), stating that this event was the result of human-caused global warming.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Global Warming Has Stalled Over Much Of The Last 10 Years, Arctic Never Melted Away

by P. Gosselin, July, 22, 2022 in NoTrickZone

The globe hasn’t been warming and the Arctic hasn’t been melting much for almost a decade now.

Recall the climate crisis loonies warned us some 20 years ago the Arctic sea ice would disappear by the summer of 2014. Well it’s still very much there, as Joe Bastardi reminds us at his most recent Saturday Summary:

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No warming in 8 years

Moreover, UAH global mean temperature anomaly hasn’t risen in eight years as well, Hat-tip Snowfan here:

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climate-debate

Was It Hotter In 1911?

by P. Homewood, July 23, 2022 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

There has inevitably been a lot of apoplectic reporting about this week’s heatwave in Britain. Everybody from the BBC to the Met Office have been blaming it on climate change, with suitably scary colours to ram the message home:

Comparison of TV weather Maps from the BBC in summer 2012, left, and summer 2022 right. Source: BBC

Courtesy of Climate Realism

But so far I have not seen an objective analysis.

So let’s start with a few simple facts:

1) It was extremely hot for a couple of days this week.

2) The heat was the result of an extremely unlikely set of meteorological conditions – a perfect storm, if you like.

We know this because the Met Office told us so. On July 8th, they announced the possibility of a heatwave a week later. The weather model runs produced a wide band of possibilities, with most predicting similar temperatures to the weekend before, and some even forecasting no heatwave at all. At that stage on a couple of models out of the hundreds run predicted 40C temperatures, which were described by the BBC as “a very tiny possibility”.

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climate-debate

Climate Monitoring Since The Little Ice Age

by P. Homewood, July 19, 2022 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

Meanwhile the jokers at the Met Office don’t seem to have realised that their temperature records begin at the depth of the Little Ice Age, or appear to have heard about Urban Heat Islands

It is mid July 2022. We are currently experiencing a significant – at the time of writing provisionally record-breaking – heatwave for the UK. Red weather warnings for extreme heat are in force for large parts of England and forecasts indicated a real possibility of temperatures reaching up to 40°C in some areas. Indeed, this temperature has already been exceeded. Whether or not records are broken, a key part of the work that we do at the Met Office is climate monitoring, an important aspect of which is the ability to put current weather into historical context. Climate monitoring serves many functions: It can effectively communicate the relative severity of an event; it can indicate how frequently such extremes are likely to occur; and it can monitor how the character or frequency of extremes are changing over time. In order to properly understand the risks from climate change, a key research question climate monitoring can help us to answer is, ‘What are the current weather and climate hazards, risks and impacts that should be expected in the UK and globally?’. To address this question, we must look to the past, and the scientific effort goes back further than you might think.

Making history

In 1663, Robert Hooke stood before the relatively newly formed Royal Society and proposed ‘A method for making the history of the weather’. Hooke and other notable scientists of the time were actively developing instruments capable of making meteorological measurements of wind, rain, air pressure, humidity and temperature. These were the early anemometers, rain gauges, barometers and thermometers of the time1. In his paper, Hooke recommended what should be measured and how it should be recorded, including ‘a scheme at one view representing to the eye the observations of the weather for a month’ and implored his colleagues to undertake such measurements. From a modern climatologist’s point of view, arguably one of the most important advances by Hooke was his recognition that if systematic and consistent measurements were made across the country, or even across the world, then an international perspective on the weather could be obtained, for the benefit of humankind. 

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climate-debate

The Two Degree Limit

by Andy May, July 19, 2022 in WUWT

For decades We have been told that we must not let global warming exceed two degrees Celsius above the “pre-industrial” global average temperature. Recently the IPCC lowered this limit to 1.5°C. In the latest IPCC report, called AR6, pre-industrial is defined as before 1750, but they use global temperatures from 1850-1900 as representative of the period because global average surface temperatures are not available for 1750.[1] The U.S., Europe, and much of Asia were industrialized by 1900, so their numbers are clearly not representative of the period of interest, unless temperatures remained constant from 1750 to 1900, which is unlikely.

Why the focus on 2°? In a 2014 comment in Nature, David Victor and Charles Kennel tell us that there is little scientific basis for the 2°C figure, but it was a simple focal point and it “sounded bold and perhaps feasible.” (Victor & Kennel, 2014). Then they admit the goal is “effectively unachievable.”

What is the “pre-industrial?” Did it have an ideal climate that we wish to return to? The year 1750 was in the coldest and most miserable part of the Little Ice Age (LIA). The LIA was the coldest period in the Holocene Epoch, or since the last glacial period ended about 12,000 years ago, at least in much of the Northern Hemisphere.

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unclassified

The heatwave green hysteria is out of control

by P. Homewood, July 18, 2022 in NotaLotofPdeopleKnowThat

If you find yourself wondering over the next few days why it is so swelteringly hot, I have an answer for you. It’s because of rich people. It’s because of those wealthy elites with all their gas-guzzling vehicles and reckless holidaymaking. It’s their fault you’re sweating on the Tube.
This infantile claim really is being made, and by supposedly serious politicians. Labour’s Richard Burgon, over on his Instagram account, is wringing his no doubt sweaty hands over the filthy rich folk who apparently landed us in this weather apocalypse.
‘As we face 40C temperatures and the first ever Red Extreme Heat Warning, remember this climate crisis is driven by the wealthy’, he cries. His stern words are accompanied, naturally, by that Met Office map showing half of Britain coloured dark red – the hellish hue that has been chosen to illustrate how dire our predicament has allegedly become.
Is anyone else tiring of all this green hysteria over the heatwave? There is something medieval about it. There is something creepily pre-modern in the idea that sinful mankind has brought heat and fire and floods upon himself with his wicked, hubristic behaviour. What next – plagues of locusts as a punishment for our failure to recycle?
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unclassified

Updated Atmospheric CO2 Concentration Forecast Through 2050 and Beyond

by R. Spencer, July 18, 2022 in WUWT

Summary

The simple CO2 budget model I introduced in 2019 is updated with the latest Mauna Loa measurements of atmospheric CO2 and with new Energy Information Administration estimates of global CO2 emissions through 2050. The model suggests that atmospheric CO2 will barely double pre-industrial levels by 2100, with a total radiative forcing of the climate system well below the most extreme scenario (RCP8.5) used in alarmist literature (and the U.S. national climate assessment), with the closest match to RCP4.5. The model also clearly show the CO2 reducing effect of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption of 1991.

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climate-debate

Greenhouse gas CO2 , should not be feared.

by Dr ir. F. van den Beemt, March 15, 2022 in ScienceTalks

The 2021 UN Climate Change Conference, COP 26, resulted in several countries making statements that they would aim to reduce their emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly CO2, based on the fear that these gases are warming the Earth dangerously by what they call the greenhouse effect. But fear is a bad counselor. Understanding the matter reduces anxiety. The purpose of this article is to inform a broad audience about the greenhouse gas CO2 without going into scientific detail, for the latter see [1].

The Earth Thermostat: ensuring a livable temperature on Earth.

The sun heats the Earth with mostly visible light. Our water planet, the Earth, cools down by invisible heat radiation to space. The Earth’s surface, the oceans, and the atmosphere store heat to varying degrees. Wind- and water flows distribute heat all over the Earth. The evaporation process of water transmits energy from the surface into the air. Warm air rises until it cools and forms clouds. Clouds reflect incoming sunlight back to space that otherwise would have warmed the Earth’s surface. Clouds emit heat radiation to space and also some back to the Earth’s surface. These and many more heat transport processes act together as a planet-wide thermostat to create the livable temperature on Earth that we enjoy today.

The terrestrial thermostat knows no rest.

If the Earth’s surface warms up for any reason, this thermostat acts until a new equilibrium is reached. This equilibrium is never static, however, it fluctuates because the wind, convection, precipitation, and all the other dynamic natural processes continually adjust. The atmosphere shows dynamic, cyclic and chaotic characteristics.

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Figure 1 ( copied from Figure 10 in [2]): Effects of changing concentrations of  CO2 on the filtered spectral flux at the mesopause altitude of 86 km. The smooth blue line is the spectral flux, from a surface at the temperature of 288.7 K for a transparent atmosphere with no greenhouse gases. The green line is with the CO2 removed but with all the other greenhouse gases at their standard concentrations. The black line is with all greenhouse gases at their standard concentrations. The red line is for twice the standard concentration of CO2 but with all the other greenhouse gases at their standard concentrations. Doubling the standard concentration of CO2 (from 400 to 800 ppm) would only cause a forcing increase (the area between the black and red lines) of 3.0 W m−2.

Above clouds, the water vapor concentration decreases where CO2 concentration stays nearly constant. Within the upper troposphere and the stratosphere, the CO2-specific part of the emission by clouds and water vapor will be again absorbed but now mainly by CO2. Within the thin stratosphere, CO2 emits to space as our satellites detect.

Heat emission to space at top of the atmosphere

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climate-debate

Think it’s hot now? How Britain roasted in TEN-WEEK heatwave during summer of ’76

by P. Homewood, Jul 15, 2022 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

Wildfires have raged, speed restrictions have been imposed on some railway lines and hospitals have already declared ‘critical incidents’.

The hot weather in Britain this summer is set to peak next week, when the mercury could top 39C (102F) in London.

The current non-stop sunshine has evoked memories of the summer of 1976, when there were 15 consecutive days that saw temperatures of 89.6F (32C) somewhere in the UK.

Overall, there were ten weeks of blazing heat that saw widespread drought, mass standpipe use, and even the pausing of the murder trial of the notorious ‘Black Panther’, after a woman suffering from ‘heat exhaustion’ collapsed.

During a First Division football match between Manchester City and Aston Villa, City player collectively lost four stone in weight, prompting the team’s captain to call for an end to ‘summer soccer’.

At that year’s Wimbledon tennis championships, umpires were allowed to remove their jackets for the first time in living memory, whilst major roads were littered with broken-down cars that had overheated.

The extreme weather also caused an increase in the number of 999 callouts to domestic disturbances, as tempers buckled due to the heat.

The summer of 1976 was caused in part by very hot air that had originated in the Mediterranean. The warm weather and lack of rain began on June 23 and did not abate for more than a month.

The highest temperature recorded in the summer was on July 3, when the mercury hit 96.6F (35.9C) in Cheltenham. The average maximum daily temperature was 67.8F (19.9C).

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climate-debate

“97% Consensus” — What Consensus?

by G. Wrightstone, Oct 28, 2021 in CO2Coalition

You have likely heard that 97% of scientists agree on human-driven climate change. You may also have heard that those who don’t buy into the climate-apocalypse mantra are science-deniers. The truth is that a whole lot more than 3% of scientists are skeptical of the party line on climate. A whole lot more.

The many scientists, engineers and energy experts that comprise the CO2 Coalition are often asked something along the lines of: “So you believe in climate change, then?” Our answer? “Yes, of course we do: it has been happening for hundreds of millions of years.” It is important to ask the right questions. The question is not, “Is climate change happening?” The real question of serious importance is, “Is climate change now driven primarily by human actions? That question should be followed up by “is our changing climate beneficial or harmful to ecosystems and humanity?”

There are some scientific truths that are quantifiable and easily proven, and with which, I am confident, at least 97% of scientists agree. Here are two:

  1. Carbon dioxide concentration has been increasing in recent years.

  2. Temperatures, as measured by thermometers and satellites, have been generally increasing in fits and starts for more than 150 years.

What is impossible to quantify is the actual percentage of warming that is attributable to increased anthropogenic (human-caused) CO2. There is no scientific evidence or method that can determine how much of the warming we’ve had since 1900 that was directly caused by us.

We know that temperature has varied greatly over the millennia. We also know that for virtually all of that time, global warming and cooling were driven entirely by natural forces, which did not cease to operate at the beginning of the 20th century.

The claim that most modern warming is attributable to human activities is scientifically insupportable. The truth is that we do not know. We need to be able to separate what we do know from that which is only conjecture.

What is the basis for the “97% consensus” notion? Is it true? 

Hint: You can’t spell consensus without “con.”

If, indeed, 97% of all scientists truly believed that human activities were causing the moderate warming that we have seen in the last 150 years, it would be reasonable for one to consider this when determining what to believe. One would be wrong, however.

Science, unlike religion, is not a belief system. Scientists, just like anyone else, will say that they believe things (whether they believe them or not) for social convenience, political expediency or financial profit. For this and other good reasons, science is not founded upon the beliefs of scientists. It is a disciplined method of inquiry, by which scientists apply pre-existing theory to observation and measurement, so as to develop or to reject a theory, so that they can unravel as clearly and as certainly as possible the distinction between what the Greek philosopher Anaximander called “that which is and that which is not.”

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming

by S. Chand et al., Jun 27, 2022 in Nature

Abstract

Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in the presence of large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection and attribution of tropical cyclone (TC) trends. Here, using a reconstructed long-term proxy of annual TC numbers together with high-resolution climate model experiments, we show robust declining trends in the annual number of TCs at global and regional scales during the twentieth century. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset is used for reconstruction because, compared with other reanalyses, it assimilates only sea-level pressure fields rather than utilize all available observations in the troposphere, making it less sensitive to temporal inhomogeneities in the observations. It can also capture TC signatures from the pre-satellite era reasonably well. The declining trends found are consistent with the twentieth century weakening of the Hadley and Walker circulations, which make conditions for TC formation less favourable.

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climate-debate

Impact of Changing Climate on Andean Glaciers in Sync with Polar Ice

by University of Florida, Jul 14, 2022 in WUWT

Peer-Reviewed Publication

Lake Junin coring platform
IMAGE: RESEARCHERS AND DRILLING OPERATORS WORKED AROUND THE CLOCK FOR SEVEN WEEKS, DRILLING 100 METERS INTO LAKE JUNIN, HIGH IN THE PERUVIAN ANDES. WORKING IN TWO 12-HOURS SHIFTS, SCIENTISTS COLLECTED THE TO HELP THEM CREATE A RECORD OF GLACIAL CHANGES THAT STRETCHES BACK NEARLY 1 MILLION YEARS. view more CREDIT: CHARLIE CASEY

Glaciers in tropical mountain ranges are experiencing similar impact from the drivers of climate change as those in the polar regions of Antarctica and the Northern Hemisphere, according to a study published today in Nature.

The paper by a team of international scientists, including Robert Hatfield, an assistant professor in the University of Florida Department of Geological Sciences, is the first to show that the effects of greenhouse gases and other drivers of the Earth’s temperature are impacting glaciers in the Southern Hemisphere at the same pacing as ice sheets in the north.  To derive their findings, researchers used sedimentary deposits from Lake Junín, high in the Peruvian Andes, to create a record of glacial changes stretching back 700,000 years.

Hatfield explained that much of what scientists knew about past glacial changes came from records of ice growth and decay that occurred in the Northern Hemisphere.

“As we try to understand how climate works across the globe, we need more than just records that are influenced by and biased toward the Northern Hemisphere,” Hatfield said.

The land-based lake record collected by Hatfield and his colleagues matches the duration of ice core records from Antarctica and spans the longest time frame ever collected from the Southern Hemisphere.

“What makes our findings unique is that we were able to get a continuous and independently dated record of tropical Alpine glaciation for the first time,” he said. “The key takeaway was that the tropics follow the same beat and same rhythm to what’s going on in the Northern Hemisphere.”

Despite variations in solar radiation between the two hemispheres, the study showed glacier changes in both regions occurred at the same time. This suggests that the rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations associated with changes in the volume of the ice sheets of the north is influencing the entire planet simultaneously.

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climate-debate

Arctic Sea Ice Still Quite Abundant for Early Summer

by S. Crockford, Jul 15, 2022 in WUWT/PolarbearScience

Despite rhetoric to the contrary, there is still plenty of sea ice over Arctic regions this summer, supplying feeding platforms for polar bears, ice-dependent seals, and walrus cows nursing their young calves. Forget about whether the numbers are below or above some short-term average, there is no catastrophe in the making for marine mammals in the Arctic at this time.

Remember, by early summer, young seals have left the surface of the ice and are in the water feeding; predator-savvy adults and subadults are hauled out on broken chunks of ice moulting their hair-coat. They may look like sitting ducks but polar bears have a hard time catching them because the seals are vigilant and have many escape routes available (due to all the open water). Most polar bears in Hudson Bay are still on the ice (you’ll see why below): the live cams near Churchill set up to watch polar bears are presently showing images of ravens with sea ice in the background, not bears.

This post is predominantly sea ice charts for mid-July, what we in the science field call observational evidence, aka ‘facts’. Keep in mind that satellites used to produce these images have an especially hard time distinguishing ice topped with melt water from open water, which means much more ice useful to these marine mammals is almost certainly present than is shown in the charts (as much as 20% more in some regions).

Arctic-wide levels, NSIDC Masie

 

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unclassified

Europe at risk of civil unrest unless it returns to fossil fuels, EU warns

by Climate Depot, July 11, 2022

1) Europe at risk of civil unrest unless it returns to fossil fuels, EU warns
The Guardian 8 July 20222) Rising social unrest over energy costs & food shortages threatens global stability
David Blackmon, Forbes, 11 July 2022

3) Farmers ‘freedom convoy’ takes aim at strict Dutch Net Zero regulations

The Daily Telegraph, 9 July 20224) Dutch farmer protests against emissions cuts spread across EU
Farmers Weekly, 9 July 2022

5) Green Tories fear next party leader could ditch Net Zero strategy

The Observer, 10 July 20226) Andrew Orlowski: Boris Johnson, the Net Zero zealot

7) Lifeline for millions in Red Wall as fracking return could provide ‘cheap or free gas’
Daily Express, 8 July 20228) Europe’s rush to buy Africa’s natural gas draws cries of hypocrisy
Bloomberg, 10 July 2022

9) ‘Complete Collapse’: How ESG and green extremism destroyed Sri Lanka’s economy
The Daily Caller, 6 July 2022

10) If you want to know how Sri Lanka’s president destroyed his country read his COP26 speech
High Commission of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka in the United Kingdom, 1 November 2021

Europe is in danger of highly damaging “very, very strong conflict and strife” this winter over high energy prices, and should make a short-term return to fossil fuels to head off the threat of civil unrest, the vice-president of the European Commission has warned.

Frans Timmermans, the second most senior official in the EU, said the threat of unrest this winter, a deliberate outcome of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, must take precedence over the climate crisis.

He said: “If our society descends into very, very strong conflict and strife because there is no energy, we’re certainly not going to make our [climate] goals. We’re certainly not going to get where we need to get if the lack of energy leads to strong disruption in our societies, and we need to make sure people are not in the cold in the coming winter.

“We need to make sure we keep our industry, as much as possible, functioning because the one thing that could help Putin is divisions in our society.”

People suffering from the cold this winter because they cannot afford heating would also be disastrous for solving the climate crisis, Timmermans argued in an interview with the Guardian in Brussels.

“I’ve been in politics long enough, over 30 years, to understand that people worry most about the immediate crisis and not about the long-term crisis And if we don’t address the immediate crisis, we will certainly be off-track with the long-term crisis,” he said.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Lennart Bengtsson: Global climate change and its relevance for a global energy policy.

by H. von Storch, March 12, 2013 in DieKlimazwiebel

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The relation between temperature and greenhouse gases in its very simplistic form has been known since the second half of the 19thcentury. The effect of the greenhouse gases can be seen as a warm overcoat preventing the surface in radiating away the heat to space. However, the warming is a complex process incorporating the dynamics of atmospheric and ocean flows and interactions of the many components of what is now called the Earth’s system. This includes in addition to the atmosphere, the oceans, the land surfaces and the land ices. Its study requires advanced computer models and other tools for its analysis and understanding.  It also requires accurate observations for validation and monitoring as well as special measurements for the development of many crucial aspects of the models. It is in fact an immensely complex undertaking that is virtually impossible to explain to the public in a readily understandable way. This has lead to a tendency towards oversimplification that has contributed more to confusion than to a thorough understanding. However, because of the strong public interest we are now facing a dilemma as the public and the political community have become too much involved in the climate change debate influencing the actual science and this not necessarily in a positive way as it implies an arbitrary selection of priorities and preferential issues.

 

Natural processes drive climate and practically all kinds of extreme weather have always been part of the climate and are practically unrelated to the modest warming we so far have had. The effect of increasing greenhouse gases is a slow but relentless process that will have to be dealt with but will require more time and better insight in key processes.Some events are seen as very dramatic as the reduced Arctic summer ice, others, even more puzzling, such as the surprising lack of warming in the tropical troposphere is hardly discussed.

The problem is that the global warming is mainly caused by the emission of carbon dioxide and thus directly related to energy production by fossil fuels that has dominated and still dominates the energy production by more than 80%. To significantly reduce or eliminate fossil fuel is not feasible on a time-scale shorter than several decades, as it requires fundamental technical breakthrough in energy generation or alternatively a major change in our life stile. As the second alternative is hardly possible to achieve in a world with mostly open societies, it is obvious that the world community is facing a gigantic challenge. Additionally many parts of the world are suffering because of a lack of suitable energy and the need is further underpinned by the fact that the world’s population will increase by another two billion humans in the next three decades.

Some comments on the present situation

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climate and geology

Global-Scale Warming Events Of ‘Up To 15 °C Within A Few Decades’ Have Occurred Since The Jurassic

Boulila et al., 2022 in NoTricksZone

A new study (Boulila et al., 2022) suggests “abrupt and severe changes in Earth’s past climate” have been occurring at ~1,500-year periodicities since the iceless Jurassic period.

Warming events of degrees C per within decades or less were at one time thought to have occurred only at locations like Greenland and the North Atlantic during the last glacial period (70 to 12 thousand years ago).

But the evidence has been piling up from locations throughout the globe (e.g., on continents and tropical to high latitude oceans, lakes, and rivers) indicating these warming events have “a global interconnection between the two hemispheres.”

These “abrupt and severe” global warming events with ~1,500-year periodicities can even be traced back to the iceless Jurassic period when Antarctica was a rainforest and 38°C warmer than today. This suggests the driving force for these global warming periods were not dependent on ice sheet dynamics.

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Abstract

Earth’s past climate exhibits short-term (1500-year) pronounced fluctuations during the last glacial period, called Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO) glacial events, which have never been detected in pre-Quaternary times. The record of DO equivalent climate variability in Mesozoic strata can provide constraints on understanding these events. Here we highlight a prominent 1500-year cyclicity in a Jurassic (~ 155 Ma) ice-free sedimentary record from the Tethyan Basin. This Jurassic 1500-year cyclicity is encoded in high-resolution magnetic susceptibility (MS) proxy data reflecting detrital variations, and expressed as marl-limestone couplets. Additionally, MS data detect the modulation of these DO-scale couplets by supercouplet sets, reflecting the precession and its harmonics. We suggest that this Jurassic DO-like cyclicity may originate from paleo-monsoon-like system, analogous to the record of DO events in the Pleistocene East Asian monsoon archives. Paleogeographic reconstructions and atmosphere–ocean simulations further support the potential existence of strong, ancient monsoon circulations in the Tethyan Basin during the Jurassic.

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climate-debate

Mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet 1992–2016: reconciling results from GRACE gravimetry with ICESat, ERS1/2 and Envisat altimetry

by J. Zwally et al., 2021, March 29, in J.of.Glaciology

Abstract

GRACE and ICESat Antarctic mass-balance differences are resolved utilizing their dependencies on corrections for changes in mass and volume of the same underlying mantle material forced by ice-loading changes. Modeled gravimetry corrections are 5.22 times altimetry corrections over East Antarctica (EA) and 4.51 times over West Antarctica (WA), with inferred mantle densities 4.75 and 4.11 g cm−3. Derived sensitivities (Sg, Sa) to bedrock motion enable calculation of motion (δB0) needed to equalize GRACE and ICESat mass changes during 2003–08. For EA, δB0 is −2.2 mm a−1 subsidence with mass matching at 150 Gt a−1, inland WA is −3.5 mm a−1 at 66 Gt a−1, and coastal WA is only −0.35 mm a−1 at −95 Gt a−1. WA subsidence is attributed to low mantle viscosity with faster responses to post-LGM deglaciation and to ice growth during Holocene grounding-line readvance. EA subsidence is attributed to Holocene dynamic thickening. With Antarctic Peninsula loss of −26 Gt a−1, the Antarctic total gain is 95 ± 25 Gt a−1 during 2003–08, compared to 144 ± 61 Gt a−1 from ERS1/2 during 1992–2001. Beginning in 2009, large increases in coastal WA dynamic losses overcame long-term EA and inland WA gains bringing Antarctica close to balance at −12 ± 64 Gt a−1 by 2012–16.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Global Man-Made CO2 emissions 1965 – 2021: BP Data

by BP, Jul 10, 2022 in WUWT

Introduction

Every summer BP publish their statistical review of world energy.

https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/co2-emissions.html

One element of their comprehensive set of spreadsheets is a table of CO2 emissions country by country since 1965.  For the purposes of this post, the CO2 emissions data provided by BP here is assumed to be valid.  This post reviews the 2022 update to the BP data.

The 2022 dataset accounts for the 2020 effect of the Covid-19 epidemic, the CO2 emissions resulting in the aftermath of the epidemic, its impact on Global economic activity and the outcome for the recovery of Man-made CO2 emissions in 2021.

For an earlier post reporting the status of Man-made CO2 emissions as of 2020, see:

Global Man-made CO2 emissions 1965 – 2020: BP data

Developed nations:  population ~1.3 billion, (~17%) – ~37% CO2 emissions.

United States of America:  population ~330m, ~13.9% of global CO2 emissions.

President Biden has negated many of Trump’s climate initiatives, including the USA rejoining support for the Paris Climate accord.  The actions of the Trump presidency had established USA energy independence for the first time in several decades.  In the USA, simply by exploiting shale gas as opposed to Coal for electricity generation, has already reduced its annual CO2 emissions by some by ~1,000,000,000 tonnes, ie by one third, since 2005.  That market driven initiative has already had a greater CO2 emission reduction effect than the entire Kyoto protocol and the Paris Climate Accord.

Japan, the former Soviet Union, (CIS), Canada and Australia, (JP CIS CA AU):  population ~356m, ~12.1% of global CO2 emissions.

These are nominally developed nations with some ambivalence towards controls on CO2 emissions and not necessarily adhering to the Paris Climate Accord.

Europe including the UK, Turkey and the Ukraine:  population ~650m, ~11.2% of global CO2 emissions.

This reassessment including Turkey and the Ukraine adds ~120 million to the wider European population with a resulting lowering of the overall CO2 emissions/head.  Currently European governments are still largely committed to action to combat Global Warming;  they have generally been enthusiastic supporters of the Paris Climate Accord, but the context is changing rapidly, including:

  • since February 2022 the war in Ukraine has suddenly made Western nations realise that their immediate energy security in the is much more important than any Green agenda to save the World from possible warming by the end of the century and that their Energy Security and injudicious dependence of Russian energy sources has enabled that Energy Security as a weapon against their economies.  But, after 30 years of unrelenting Green propaganda the Green agenda is still well established in the thinking of European Governments.
  • European peoples will come to understand the substantial changes to their lifestyles, personal economies and freedoms that are demanded by their governments’ to pursue the Net Zero / Green agenda and voters may be losing enthusiasm as they understand the real life implications of the imposed policies.
  • long-term policies providing generous subsidy support for “Renewables” as opposed to Conventional power generation have been pursued, particularly in Germany and the UK.
  • the preferential support of “Renewable” technologies has fruitlessly undermined investment in conventional reliable power generation to the extent that there is now real doubt about the ability of European power grids to provide a consistent service 24/7.
  • the subsidy support has meant that ~ 25% is aded to electricity bills go to support the “Renewable” technologies in the UK and elsewhere.  With escalating power bills European are at last realising that much of their increased costs are for the support of “Renewables” and progressively these expenditures will meet increasing resistance as the level of waste and the unreliability they represent becomes appreciated.
  • the Yellow Vests reaction in France was an immediate and violent reaction to the increase of fuel taxes on grounds of combatting climate change.  The fuel price rises in 2022 are much more drastic than those that induced the “Yellow Vest” reaction.
  • policies based on climate concerns are irrelevant to improving well-being in the Developing World, which has no interest for actions that would restrain their continuing development and well-being using their indigenous fossil fuels.

https://edmhdotme.wordpress.com/weather-dependent-power-generation/embed/#?secret=l8iZWBRns9#?secret=oko5JekhTo

Nominally Developing nations:  population ~6.6 billion, (84.6%) – ~63% CO2 emissions.

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Australia, climate-debate, Cooling

ALL-TIME COLD RECORDS FALL IN AUSTRALIA; + SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTROLS THE CLIMATE

by Cap Allon, Jul 5, 2022 in Electroverse

ALL-TIME COLD RECORDS FALL IN AUSTRALIA

Following its best start to a ski season ever, conditions have anomalously cold and snowy across swathes of Australia.

June 2022 finished with a temperature anomaly of -0.1C below the multidecadal average, according to data supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology–whatever that’s worth.

The unusual chill has extended into July, too, and hundreds of monthly low temperature records have fallen over the past two days alone–particularly across the northeastern state of Queensland, where even a number of all-time benchmarks have been toppled.

 

Senior meteorologist Harry Clark said the combination of rain and cold temperatures was “extremely unusual” for July.

“Both in terms of the amount of rainfall and the extent of it, for what is one of our driest months of the year, but also for the extremely low maximum temperatures we’ve seen,” said Clarke. “Temperatures are looking more into what you might expect in Melbourne, or some of those southern capital cities where it’s the typical winter weather.”

Clarke confirmed that “many” cold weather records were broken across Queensland this week, with the standouts for him being Rockhampton peaking at only 12.5C (54.5F) yesterday, and Toowoomba struggling to just 7.6C (45.7F).

Other locales registered equally impressive readings: The Gold Coast Seaway set its coldest day of any month ever yesterday with 14C (57.2F); while further north, in Townsville, residents there suffered their coldest July day ever with a high of 15C (59F).

And most recently, Brisbane, the capital of Queensland –which had already registered its coldest start to a winter since 1904— has, today (July 5), gone and logged its coldest daily high in 22 years, reaching only 12.4C (54.3F).

For reference, Brisbane’s lowest-ever maximum remains the 12C (53.6F) set in July 2000; with the city’s third-coldest July maximum actually being yesterday’s 14.2C (57.6F) … but ‘catastrophic global warming’, you know … ?

SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTROLS THE CLIMATE

The global temperature record since 1880 is highly correlated to solar activity, and solar activity is highly correlated to the harmonics of planetary motion.

The below chart is NASA’s Historical Total Solar Irradiance Reconstruction, Time Series.

And looking ahead, Australia’s Antarctic blast isn’t forecast to abate anytime soon — quite the opposite, in fact:

 

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better to know...?, climate-debate

LinkedIn Bans Scientist for Presenting Inconvenient Truths About CO2

by C. Rotter, Jul 9, 2022 in WUWT

“The big-tech censors are at it again: the CO2 Coalition’s Executive Director Gregory Wrightstone has been permanently banned from LinkedIn. What did Wrightstone do to earn the banishment? His ‘crime’ consisted of posting charts from peer reviewed research supported by official sources demonstrating that current global average CO2 levels are well within the natural range of concentrations throughout the Earth’s history. LinkedIn’s moderators sent Wrightstone an email informing him that his violations have been so numerous and/or so severe that they couldn’t allow him to continue to use the platform.”

Originally published here at Climate Realism on 6 July 2022.

Australia, climate and geology

2021-2022 Tonga Volcanic Eruption and Record Rainfall in Eastern Australia and New Zealand

by A. Wong & W. Yims, Jul 4, 2022 in The SaltbushClub

Summary

During late 2021, the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai submarine volcano erupted creating a new island which erupted sub-aerially on 15th January, 2022 sending a plume 58 km above sea level penetrating the mesosphere. The study of observation records including satellite data has revealed warming of the ocean-surface layer followed by atmospheric cooling caused by the release of geothermal heat and volcanic materials entering the atmosphere respectively. Environmental factors influencing weather include the development of a relatively ‘short’ life-span South Pacific Blob; the transfer of large quantities of water vapour from the ocean into the atmosphere; the low-pressure condition on the ocean surface; the formation of clouds; the reduction of solar radiation caused by volcanic materials in the atmosphere; the strengthening of trade winds; the meandering of jet streams; the development of atmospheric rivers, the additional cooling effect of torrential rainfall, and, the switch to La Niña conditions. The record rainfall in eastern Australia and New Zealand and Tropical Cyclone Dovi occurring in February 2022 were both outcomes of atmospheric cooling following the sub-aerial eruption.

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only geology

Porosity of the moon’s crust reveals bombardment history

by Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Jul 7, 2022 in ScienceDaily

The moon sustained twice as many impacts as can be seen on its surface, scientists find.

Around 4.4 billion years ago, the early solar system resembled a game of space rock dodgeball, as massive asteroids and comets, and, later, smaller rocks and galactic debris pummeled the moon and other infant terrestrial bodies. This period ended around 3.8 billion years ago. On the moon, this tumultuous time left behind a heavily cratered face, and a cracked and porous crust.

Now MIT scientists have found that the porosity of the moon’s crust, reaching well beneath the surface, can reveal a great deal about the moon’s history of bombardment.

In a study appearing in Nature Geoscience, the team has shown through simulations that, early on in the bombardment period, the moon was highly porous — almost one-third as porous as pumice. This high porosity was likely a result of early, massive impacts that shattered much of the crust.

Scientists have assumed that a continuous onslaught of impacts would slowly build up porosity. But surprisingly, the team found that nearly all the moon’s porosity formed rapidly with these massive imapcts, and that the continued onslaught by smaller impactors actually compacted its surface. These later, smaller impacts acted instead to squeeze and compact some of the moon’s existing cracks and faults.

From their simulations, the researchers also estimated that the moon experienced double the number of impacts as can be seen on the surface. This estimate is lower than what others have assumed.

“Previous estimates put that number much higher, as many as 10 times the impacts as we see on the surface, and we’re predicting there were fewer impacts,” says study co-author Jason Soderblom, a research scientist in MIT’s Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences (EAPS). “That matters because that limits the total material that impactors like asteroids and comets brought to the moon and terrestrial bodies, and gives constraints on the formation and evolution of planets throughout the solar system.

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