by Cap Allon, Oct 27, 2020 in Electroverse
The GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM has taken out multiple low temperature records in Denver, Colorado of late, as a weak and wavy “meridional” jet stream sends Arctic air anomalously-far south.
Denver has detailed weather books dating all the way back to 1872. One thing they reveal is that on each and every October day in those past 148 years, the thermometer has never failed to reach at least 18F… until yesterday, that is.
On Monday, October 26, the mercury struggled to a high of just 16F — a new record for the coldest October high temperature ever recorded in Denver.
by T. Heller, Oct 20, 2020 in RealClimateScience
NOAA and NASA US temperature graphs have been massively altered over the past 20 years, to turn a 90 year cooling trend into a warming trend.
by K. Richard, Oct 22, 2020 in NoTricksZone
European winter temperature variability is “dominated” by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is, in turn, modulated by solar activity.
Even proponents of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) agree natural processes (AMO, NAO, ENSO, solar forcing, volcanism) drive temperature variability. But they insist the rising temperature trend is human-caused.
So if we don’t have a regional upward trend, is the non-warming natural or anthropogenic?
Lüdecke et al., 2020 find temperatures across Europe have been oscillating, not rising in linear fashion, for the last century. The timings of the temperature undulations correspond quite closely to natural ocean cycles (the NAO and AMO). The authors detail a non-linear and indirect solar activity impact on these ocean cycles, and ultimately to the European climate.
by A.N. Archer & J.Weber, Oct 22, 2020 in Phys.Org
Countries across the world took unprecedented action in the first few months of 2020 to control the spread of COVID-19. At its peak, one-third of the world’s population was in lockdown. Around the world, car travel fell by 50%, the number of flights plummeted by 75% and industrial activity fell by around 35%.
With so many cars parked, airplanes grounded and factories closed, global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions fell by around 17% compared with the same period in 2019. But greenhouse gases such as CO₂ weren’t the only emissions to fall, and not all pollution heats the planet. Some of the industrial activities that shut down—particularly heavy industry, including steel and cement making—also produced aerosols, which are tiny particles that linger in the atmosphere for weeks and reflect heat from the Sun.
Previous studies have suggested that if a lot of these industrial processes were to suddenly shut down, it would lead to short-term warming because the atmosphere would lose the reflective effect of aerosols. But as the lockdown cleared skies, temperatures didn’t rocket.
In new research, we show that lockdown had a negligible effect on global temperatures. So what really happened?
by Cap Allon, Oct 24, 2020 in Electroverse
According to the latest October report from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), the ice locked at Earth’s poles is, overall, GROWING.
By volume, Antarctica contains 90% of Earth’s ice, and volume is a far better metric to use when judging the state of an ice sheet than sea ice extent. Extent is prone to wild and unpredictable fluctuations due to natural changes in ocean currents and wind patterns, etc–though these fluctuations are of a much lesser degree in Antarctica than in its northern cousin, the Arctic.
According to the latest NSIDC report, Antarctic sea ice extent reached a whopping 18.95 million square kilometers (7.32 million square miles) on September 28. Mid to late Sept would usually give us the year’s maximum extent, but given the favorable conditions in October, the maximum may well be higher. “As is typical this time of year, there are wide swings caused by winds and storms along the extensive ice edge,” writes the NSIDC.
Ice extent around Antarctica is now “well above the 1981 to 2020 median extent,” the NSIDC informs us. “Ice extent is above the median extent along a broad area off the Wilkes Land coast and western Ross Sea, near the median extent from the Amundsen Sea clockwise to the Weddell Sea and above the median north of Dronning Maud Land, Enderby Land, and the Cosmonaut Sea. The only major area of below the median extent is in the Indian Ocean sector near the Amery Ice Shelf and eastward.”
Continuer la lecture de NSIDC: 2020 POLAR ICE DOING JUST FINE
by Siberian Times, Oct 21, 2020 in WUWT/Ch.Rotter
From the Siberian Times today (20 October) is a story with few facts but a fabulous video of six fat adults and four fat cubs as they set siege to a stalled open garbage truck in the Russian Arctic. It may have been filmed on Novaya Zemlya but that has not been confirmed.
Of course, Novaya Zemlya has had previous problems with bears habituated to garbage, most famously an extended incident in 2019 that was perversely blamed on climate change.
There were two families that I could see in the video: a female with two cubs-of-the-year and another with two year old cubs. All were in excellent condition, as were the other four adults. Novaya Zemlya, if indeed this is where the incident took place, is between the Barents and Kara Seas (see below):
by Independent, Oct 22, 2020
A new wonder is rising in the southern desert of Dubai against the backdrop of Persian Gulf beaches, but it’s not another skyscraper to grace the futuristic sheikhdom. Instead, it’s one of mankind’s oldest power sources gaining its own space on the oil-rich Arabian Peninsula — a coal-fired power plant
The construction of the $3.4 billion Hassyan plant in Dubai appears puzzling, as the United Arab Emirates hosts the headquarters of the International Renewable Energy Agency. It’s also building the peninsula’s first nuclear power plant and endlessly promotes its vast solar-power plant named after Dubai’s ruler. Dubai has also set the lofty goal of having the world’s lowest carbon footprint in the world by 2050 — something that would be impacted by burning coal.
The coal plant’s arrival comes as Gulf Arab nations remain among the world’s hungriest for energy and amid political concerns over the use of natural gas imported from abroad, concerns underscored by a yearslong dispute with gas-producer Qatar, which is boycotted by four Arab nations, including the UAE.
“Dubai was really saying we’re far too exposed on gas imports, those could be interrupted by all kinds of things, the cost is very high and so we have to do something else to diversify our fuel supply and bring down the total cost,” said Robin Mills, the CEO of Qamar Energy, a Dubai-based consulting company. “They got a very competitive offer on the coal plant … and so the decision was made.”
by K. Richard, Oct 15, 2020 in NoTricksZone
As recently as 2000 to 1000 years ago, spanning the Roman to Medieval Warm Periods, East Antarctica was 5-6°C warmer than it is today. The consequent ice melt resulted in >60 meters higher water levels in East Antarctica’s lakes.
East Antarctica has been rapidly cooling in recent decades, with magnitudes reaching -0.7°C to -2.0°C per decade since the mid-1980s (Obryk et al., 2020).
A new study (Myers et al., 2020) reports that until about 15,000 years ago and throughout the Last Glacial Maximum, East Antarctica was 4-9°C colder than it is today.
Antarctica then abruptly warmed 15°C within centuries. From 12,000 to 6,000 years before present, East Antarctica was about 5°C warmer than it is today.
by Cap Allon, Oct 21, 2020 in Electroverse
Following on from one of its snowiest winters on record in 2019-20 comes the first 2020-21 data-points from the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI). What they clearly reveal is that the Northern Hemisphere is at it again, continuing the trend of growth observed in recent years.
Despite decades of doom-and-gloom prophecies and fear-mongering claptrap, the Northern Hemisphere continues to GAIN “snow mass” at a rate comfortably above the 1982-2012 average:
See also here (Minnesota just suffered its Largest Early-Season Snowstorm in Recorded History)
by Donna Laframboise, Oct 21, 2020 in BigPicturesNews
Tony Thomas has a disturbing piece over at Quandrant.org, concerning an Australian organization allegedly run by child activists. It’s now urging kids to initiate creepy conversations with adults as a means of spreading climate propaganda.
Matters may not develop as expected, though. Because any adult who was around for the global cooling scare, who was told acid rain would wipe out the worlds forests, and that the hole in the ozone layer would induce widespread skin cancer has, in fact, heard it all before.
It’s interesting that the SchoolStrike4Climate.com website can’t stay on topic. Its front page tells us Australia was stolen from First Nation communities, and that “there can be no climate justice without first nations justice.” If you click the large button labelled: Black Lives Matter Resources, you’re taken to a 7-page Google document that similarly declares: “There is no climate justice without racial justice…”
These statements, call to mind 17-year-old Greta Thunberg’s assertion that “We can not have climate justice without gender equity.”
Climate justice. First Nations justice. Racial justice. Gender equity. What does this collection of causes tell us? That these young people aren’t rebels at all. Nor are they independent thinkers.
Rather than being sincere and passionate about a single issue they themselves have carefully investigated, these youngsters are merely hopping aboard the bandwagon known as fashionable left wing politics.
If you truly believed your future was imperiled, wouldn’t you keep on topic? Wouldn’t your anxiety focus your attention? Wouldn’t you pursue a single, realistic, achievable goal?
Instead, these high school students are being encouraged to believe that, by skipping school, they’ll convince the rest of us to do their bidding – not just about the climate, but with respect to other complicated, longstanding social issues. Everything will be transformed. Fixed to their satisfaction. All at the same time, no less.
Only a naive young person could imagine this to be remotely possible.
by J. Taylor, Oct 19, 2020 in ClimateChangeDispatch
A new study posted at ClimateAtAGlance.com documents that most small islands are growing, not losing land to sea-level rise, and island nations are attracting growing populations rather than shedding climate refugees.
The new climate summary drives a stake into the heart of alarmist assertions that climate change and rising seas are threatening island nations and their populations.
Objective measurements show that islands and atolls are growing in size, not disappearing under rising seas.
Rising seas bring sand and sediment, which build up coastal shorelines and are more than keeping pace with rising waters.
Also, coral, as living organisms growing near sea level, build up their height along with the rising sea.
For example, climate activists often claim the island nation of Tuvalu is shrinking due to rising seas and spawning climate refugees.
However, a recent peer-reviewed study found eight out of Tuvalu’s nine coral atolls have grown in size during recent decades, and three-fourths of Tuvalu’s 101 reef islands have similarly grown in size.
Also, Tuvalu’s population is consistently growing, not declining, with 20% more people living on Tuvalu now than 30 years ago. Tuvalu’s population has doubled since 1970.
Additional peer-reviewed studies (see here, here, and here) confirm the same processes are allowing – and will continue to allow – other Pacific islands to keep up with rising seas.
For example, 30 years ago, the Canberra Times claimed all 1196 islands that comprise the Maldives could be completely underwater by now.
Not only are all 1196 islands still there, but the Maldives population has doubled during the past 20 years.
People are flocking to the Maldives islands, not fleeing them. The Maldives are absorbing political refugees, not spawning climate refugees.
To read the full summary, see Climate at a Glance: Islands and Sea Level Rise.
by K. Richard, Oct 19, 2020 in NoTricksZone
Highly anomalous terrain (an active volcano), 40 years of cooling temperatures, and a CO2 record that dramatically contrasts with fluctuating values from forests and meadows reaching 600-900 ppm all beg the question: Is Mauna Loa’s CO2 record globally representative?
Mauna Loa is the Earth’s largest land volcano. It has erupted over 3 dozen times since 1843, making this terrestrial landscape extremely unusual relative to the rest of the globe’s terrain. (Forests, in contrast, cover over 30% of the Earth’s land surface.)
Mauna Loa has been thought to be the world’s best location to monitor global CO2 levels since 1958.
While Mauna Loa CO2 levels show a rise of 338 ppm to 415 ppm since 1980, Mauna Loa temperatures (HCN) show a cooling trend during this same time period. The only warming period in the last 65 years occurred between about 1975 and 1985.
Forest CO2 fluctuations
As mentioned above, forests are orders of magnitude more terrestrially representative than the highly anomalous site of the Earth’s largest volcano.
In forests or tree-covered areas, CO2 rises from around 300 ppm in the warmth of the afternoon (~3 p.m.) to over 600 ppm before sunrise (~4 a.m.), when it is cooler (Fennici, 1986, Hamacher et al., 1994). This massive fluctuation occurs daily and CO2 values average out to be far higher than the Mauna Loa record suggests.
by P. Gosselin, Oct 16, 2020 in NoTricksZone
SnowFan here reports on the latest winter forecasts for the 2020/21 Europe winter. History and statistics show Europe could be in for a frosty winter.
Currently a significant La Nina is shaping up, and history shows that these events in the Pacific have an impact on Europe’s winters:
The NOAA reanalysis above shows the temperature deviations (left) and for precipitation (right) from the WMO average 1981-2010 during the six La Niña years of winter in Europe. Large parts of Europe have average temperatures and precipitation is distributed differently, with Germany being slightly drier overall than the WMO average. Is a 2020/21 winter in Germany under La Niña conditions shaping up to have average temperatures and slightly less humidity?
Strong winter-solar correlation
A more important factor determining winter in Europe may be solar activity. Data from the German DWD national weather service since 1954 show a remarkable higher frequency of cold winters in times of low solar activity, such as we are now in the midst of.
by B. Everett, Oct 15, 2020 in CO2Coalition
One of the troubling characteristics of today’s civic discourse is the tendency to confuse predictions with reality. Nowhere is this problem more severe than in the debate over climate and its associated issues.
The last hundred years have seen increasing emissions of carbon dioxide – a benign gas. In reality, this slight increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations (from 0.03% in the nineteenth century to 0.04% today) has brought nothing but beneficial effects, including increased crop yields and greater drought resistance. Nonetheless, climate alarmists argue that rising temperatures are bringing catastrophic storms, flooding, disease, inundation, extinction and general misery. Unlike the benefits of CO2 which are clear and measurable, climate catastrophe remains nothing more than a prediction generated by computer models which have never produced meaningful forecasts of climate impacts.
A frequent corollary of climate alarmism is that the world has undertaken a radical transformation of the global energy system away from fossil fuels toward zero-carbon, renewable energy. A Google search of the term “energy transition” yields over 5 million hits, many accompanied by terms such as “unstoppable” and “irreversible”. But is this transition actually taking place? Three arguments are generally offered – none of them valid.
First, “energy transition” supporters point to the high growth rates for renewable energy sources with wind increasing at over 20% annually since 2000 and solar at over 40% per year, compared to less than 2% for fossil fuels. Sounds great, but the absolute numbers tell a different story. In 2019, despite forty years and trillions of dollars of subsidies, wind energy contributes about 2% of total global energy use and solar just over 1%. Fossil fuels accounted for 84%, down just two percentage points over the last 20 years.
by E. Worall, Oct 14, 2020 in WUWT
h/t Dr. Willie Soon / James Delingpole / Breitbart; A group of high profile scientists, including Dr. Willie Soon, have published a meticulously referenced study which discuses the pros and cons of various CO2 reduction strategies.
The abstract of the study:
Energy and Climate Policy—An Evaluation of Global Climate Change Expenditure 2011–2018
by Coilín ÓhAiseadha 1,*, Gerré Quinn 2, Ronan Connolly 3,4, Michael Connolly 3 and Willie Soon 4
1 Department of Public Health, Health Service Executive, Dr Steevens’ Hospital, D08 W2A8 Dublin 8, Ireland
2 Centre for Molecular Biosciences, Ulster University, Coleraine BT521SA, Northern Ireland, UK
3 Independent Scientists, Dublin 8, Ireland
4 Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences (CERES), Salem, MA 01970, USA*Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Concern for climate change is one of the drivers of new, transitional energy policies oriented towards economic growth and energy security, along with reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and preservation of biodiversity. Since 2010, the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) has been publishing annual Global Landscape of Climate Finance reports. According to these reports, US$3660 billion has been spent on global climate change projects over the period 2011–2018. Fifty-five percent of this expenditure has gone to wind and solar energy. According to world energy reports, the contribution of wind and solar to world energy consumption has increased from 0.5% to 3% over this period. Meanwhile, coal, oil, and gas continue to supply 85% of the world’s energy consumption, with hydroelectricity and nuclear providing most of the remainder. With this in mind, we consider the potential engineering challenges and environmental and socioeconomic impacts of the main energy sources (old and new). We find that the literature raises many concerns about the engineering feasibility as well as environmental impacts of wind and solar. However, none of the current or proposed energy sources is a “panacea”. Rather, each technology has pros and cons, and policy-makers should be aware of the cons as well as the pros when making energy policy decisions. We urge policy-makers to identify which priorities are most important to them, and which priorities they are prepared to compromise on.
Read more: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/13/18/4839/htm
by Cap Allon, Oct 9, 2020 in Electroverse
I’m not trying to be facetious here, but I don’t know what other stance climate alarmists can take. Every data point –even those from warm-mongers NOAA– reveals that the North American continent is cooling.
Taking NOAA’s data as read, with its Urban Heat Island (UHI) bias, it still reveals a sharp cooling trend across the U.S. and Canada from 2015 through 2019. A trend that has continued into 2020 with the majority of regions suffering a late start to summer, and, now, an early beginning to winter.
North America is currently bracing for its sixth or seventh (I’ve genuinely lost count) Arctic blast of the season. By next Monday (Oct 19) an enormous mass of polar cold will have engulfed 90+% of the continent:
See also ACCORDING TO THE MSM, GLOBAL WARMING COULD STILL MAKE IT TOO COLD TO GROW CITRUS FRUITS IN SOUTHEAST U.S.
by P. Gosselin, Oct 9, 2020 in NoTricksZone
Our friend “SnowFan” here looks at the claims that September 2020 was the warmest ever recorded. It turns out that other measurement advanced satellites don’t agree.
According to the much ballyhooed data, temperatures in Europe in September this year were on average 0.2 degrees Celsius higher than in the previous record September 2018. The service providing the data is part of the European earth observation program Copernicus.
But the satellite data from the UAH and RSS both agree that this is not really the case!
Above the global satellite data from UAH (left) and from RSS (right) in the tables clearly clearly show the monthly deviations from the WMO mean 1981-2010 (UAH) and from the climate mean 1979-1998 (RSS): September 2020 was not the warmest since satellite measurements began in 1979. At UAH, September 2019 was slightly warmer while at RSS even September 2017 was warmer.
Strong La Nina may be in the works
by Cap Allon, Oct 11, 2020 in Electroverse
The following article is written by Bob Hoye of www.pivotaladvice.com.
Last week, the Global Warming policy Forum headlined “La Nina Is Here”. Why the headline? Because the warming El Nino is over and the change to the La Nina represents cooling. Like seasonal and actual climate change, it is a regular event. Which in physics means logical and predictable. And some cooling is showing up in various charts. Well, in those not altered by promoters of AGW.
by D. Middelton, Oct 11, 2020 in WUWT
Estimates have ranged from 70,000 to 5,000,000 years ago. The oldest confirmed polar bear fossil dates to 110,000 to 130,000 years ago… Meaning that polar bears survived the Eemian interglacial stage.
The peak warmth of the Eemian interglacial stage marks the boundary between the Late Pleistocene Tarantian Age and the Middle Pleistocene Ionian Age.
by C. Rotter, Oct 9, 2020 in WUWT
Reposted from NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
OCTOBER 8, 2020tags: california
By Paul Homewood
by A. Watts, Oct 8, 2020 in WUWT
The Institute of Public Affairs today announced the release of a significant new book of research Climate Change: The Facts 2020 published by the Institute of Public Affairs and Australian Scholarly Publishing.
On 24 September 2019, the 17-year-old activist Greta Thunberg addressed the United Nations Climate Action Summit saying, “People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction.” A day earlier, however, the climate policy foundation Climate Intelligence (CLINTEL) sent the UN their World Climate Declaration, signed by 800 prominent scientists including Nobel Laureate Professor Ivar Giaever and Greenpeace co-founder Dr. Patrick Moore, stating that there is no climate emergency: “You’re tired of alarmism and failed predictions of climate models that can’t predict the past, let alone the future. You distrust the business leaders, politicians and scientists of the climate industrial complex – you just want The Facts.”
This book contains original research and new theories of climate and will arm you with these facts. Leading scientists are contributors, including former Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Center Dr. Roy Spencer, and lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Third Assessment Report Professor Emeritus of Meteorology Richard Lindzen of Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and many more.
Climate Change: The Facts 2020 is the definitive guide to the latest international research and analysis on climate change science and policy. Twenty experts in their field from across five countries have written original contributions on the key issues of scientific, political, and public debate about climate change.
Some of the issues addressed in chapters in Climate Change: The Facts 2020 include:
- the extent and variability of sea level change
- the historical record of temperature and ice coverage in the Antarctic
- the impact of climate change on polar bear populations
- the manipulation of temperature data by the Bureau of Meteorology
- whether the Australian bushfires 2019-20 were in fact ‘unprecedented’; and
the prevalence of ‘noble cause’ corruption in climate science.
by Karlsruher Institut für Technology, Sep 21, 2020 in EurekAlert
Based on current data measured in the energy, industry, and mobility sectors, restrictions of social life during the corona pandemic can be predicted to lead to a reduction of worldwide carbon dioxide emissions by up to eight percent in 2020. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), cumulative reductions of about this magnitude would be required every year to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement by 2030. Recent measurements by researchers of Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) revealed that concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere has not yet changed due to the estimated emission reductions. The results are reported in Remote Sensing (DOI: 10.3390/rs12152387).
See also here = Can We Measure a COVID-19-Related Slowdown in Atmospheric CO2 Growth? Sensitivity of Total Carbon Column Observations
by Cap Allon, oct 5, 2020 in Electroverse
Much of the below analysis is courtesy of Kenneth Richard.
The combined Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit (HadCRUT) data set –which is featured in IPCC reports– underwent a revision from version 3 to version 4 in March of 2012, about a year before the next IPCC report was due.
At the time (early 2012), the HadCRUT3 was showing a slight global cooling trend between 1998 and 2012, visible in the graph below which uses HadCRUT3 and HadCRUT4 raw data. In conjunction with changing versions, the slight cooling trend had convenientlychanged to a slight warming trend:
As recently as 1990, it was widely accepted that the global temperature trend showed a “0.5°C rise between 1880 and 1950”, as reported by NASA (Hansen and Lebedeff, 1987). This rise (as well as the 0.6C rise between 1880 and 1940) can clearly be seen in the NASA GISS graph from 1987: