Archives de catégorie : climate-debate

A candid climate scientist explains how to ‘fix’ the debate

by Larry Kummer, January 11, 2018 in WUWT

Summary: Here are brief excerpts and my comments from a speech by an eminent climate scientist. It illuminates important aspects about one of the great public policy debates of our time. He was speaking candidly to his peers, but we can also learn much from it.

“Some Thoughts from a Reluctant Participant”

Presentation by Richard Alley.

At the Forum on Transforming Communication in the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise — Focusing on Challenges Facing Our Sciences.

Given at the 2018 Annual Conference of the American Meteorological Society, 7 January 2018.

Study: Climate models underestimate cooling effect of daily cloud cycle

by Princeton University, January 10, 2018 in A. Watts WUWT

Princeton University researchers have found that the climate models scientists use to project future conditions on our planet underestimate the cooling effect that clouds have on a daily — and even hourly — basis, particularly over land.

The researchers report in the journal Nature Communications Dec. 22 that models tend to factor in too much of the sun’s daily heat, which results in warmer, drier conditions than might actually occur. The researchers found that inaccuracies in accounting for the diurnal, or daily, cloud cycle did not seem to invalidate climate projections, but they did increase the margin of error for a crucial tool scientists use to understand how climate change will affect us.

SEA LEVEL: Rise and Fall – Part 4 – Getting a Rise Out of Nothing

by Kip Hansen, January 9, 2018 in WUWT

Prologue:  I have been writing recently about Sea Level Rise, both as particular local examples (  Guam,  Canton,  Miami,   New York, and  NY/NJ  )  and in the series SEA LEVEL: Rise and Fall, of which this is the fourth installment.

Series Take Home Messages:

  1. Overall, the seas have been rising, slowly and inexorably, since the end of the last Ice Age, with some blips and bumps along the way.  In general, they will continue to do so for the foreseeable future — at somewhere between 4-12 inches [10-30cm] per century.  This rate is an imminent threat to populated areas built nominally at today’s existing sea level.

  2. (…)

Evaluating biases in Sea Surface Temperature records using coastal weather stations

by C Kevin, January 8, 2018 in SkepticalScience

Science is hard. Some easy problems you can solve by hard work, if you are in the right place at the right time and have the right skills. Hard problems take the combined effort of multiple groups looking at the problem, publishing results and finding fault with eachother’s work, until hopefully no-one can find any more problems. When problems are hard, you may have to publish something that even you don’t think is right, but that might advance the discussion.

The calculation of an unbiased sea surface temperature record is a hard problem. Historical sea surface temperature observations come from a variety of sources, with early records being measured using wooden, canvas or rubber buckets (figure 1), later readings being taken from engine room intakes or hull sensors, and the most recent data coming from drifting buoys and from satellites.

See alos here

England & Wales Precipitation Series For 2017

by Paul Homewood, January 8, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

The England & Wales Precipitation Series has now been updated for last year.

Precipitation totalled 952mm during the year, slightly above the series average of 918mm. In ascending order, 2017 ranked 158th.

There seems to be little evidence of any real trends. Whatever trend can be winkled out of the numbers will likely be too small to notice, and swamped by the natural variability in the data.

The wettest years remain 1872 and 1768. The driest were 1788 and 1921.