climate-debate

Why I Don’t Deny: Confessions of a Climate Skeptic — Part 2

by Kip Hansen, August 27, 2018 in WUWT

Note:  Please read Part 1 before reading this — this is a continuation of that essay (a rather long continuation….).

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Readers will have heard the line “multiple lines of evidence” attached to the attribution of anthropogenic causes.  However, that phrase is used only once in AR5 SPM as “Multiple lines of evidence indicate a strong, consistent, almost linear relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and projected global temperature change to the year 2100….”  I’m sure I don’t need to point out that there is never ever evidence about the future…..They do not claim in the Summary for Policy Makers that there are multiple lines of evidence for the attribution statement that apply to the past-to-present.

 

climate-debate

Harmonic Analysis of Worldwide Temperature Proxies for 2000 Years

by H.J. Lüdecke and C.O. Weiss, April 27, 2017 in TheOpenAtm.Sci.J.

Abstract

The Sun as climate driver is repeatedly discussed in the literature but proofs are often weak. In order to elucidate the solar influence, we have used a large number of temperature proxies worldwide to construct a global temperature mean G7 over the last 2000 years. The Fourier spectrum of G7 shows the strongest components as ~1000-, ~460-, and ~190 – year periods whereas other cycles of the individual proxies are considerably weaker. The G7 temperature extrema coincide with the Roman, medieval, and present optima as well as the well-known minimum of AD 1450 during the Little Ice Age. We have constructed by reverse Fourier transform a representation of G7 using only these three sine functions, which shows a remarkable Pearson correlation of 0.84 with the 31-year running average of G7. The three cycles are also found dominant in the production rates of the solar-induced cosmogenic nuclides 14C and 10Be, most strongly in the ~190 – year period being known as the De Vries/Suess cycle. By wavelet analysis, a new proof has been provided that at least the ~190-year climate cycle has a solar origin.

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climate-debate

Modulation of Ice Ages via Precession and Dust-Albedo Feedbacks

by Ralph Ellis, August 2018 in FriendsofScience

Why do ice ages occur? Surprisingly, even after many decades of paleoclimatic research we simply do not know for sure. Most scientists will agree that ice age cycles have something to do with precession: the slow wobble of the axis of the Earth. The ancient Egyptians and Greeks knew of precession and called it the Great Year, because it gives warm and cool seasons over its approximate 23,000-year cycle. But there is a problem with invoking the Great Year as the regulator of ice ages, because we should really get an interglacial warming every 23,000 years or so. And we don’t – they only happen every fourth or fifth Great Year.

But why should the global climate give a selective response to orbital warming and cooling? (Called ‘forcing’ in the climate trade.) This is one of the great unknowns of modern science.

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climate-debate

Why I Don’t Deny: Confessions of a Climate Skeptic — Part 1

by Kip Hansen, August 25, 2018 in WUWT

I have often been asked “Why do you deny climate change?”  I am always stumped by the question.  It is rather like being asked “Why do you torture innocent animals?”  The questioner is not merely asking for information, they are always making an accusation — an accusation that they consider very serious and a threat to themselves and others.

The reason it stumps me is that, as you have guessed already, I do not deny climate change (and I do not torture innocent animals — nor even guilty ones).  And there is nothing about me or my behavior, present or past, that I am aware of, that would lead any reasonable person to think such a thing of me.

I am thoroughly guilty though of being very skeptical of what is generally referred to as the Climate Consensus — usually said to be represented by the latest reports and policy recommendations put out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its supporters; political, ideological and scientific.  I suppose it is this that leads to the false accusation of “denying climate change”.

And there is the crux of the matter — it is something in the mind of the accuser, not any action of the accused, which leads to the false accusation.

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climate-debate

Carbon emissions in African savannas triple previous estimates

by Edinburgh University, August 24, 2018 in ScienceDaily

The findings highlight the extent to which humans are impacting one of the world’s major ecosystems — the Miombo woodlands, which cover 2.5 million square kilometres, across countries including Angola, Zambia, Tanzania and Mozambique.

At the same time, however, the growing number of trees in remote parts of these woodlands is helping to offset the emissions, researchers say.

The study is the first to provide an in-depth analysis of areas gaining carbon while also losing it through degradation — a process where some, but not all, trees are removed, usually as a result of logging and fire.

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See original article in Nature

climate-debate

Arctic Summer Sea Ice Growth Trend Extends Another Year …Greenland Summer One Of Coldest In 30 Years!

by P. Gosselin, August 24, 2018 in NoTricksZone

As the Arctic summer ice melt approaches its peak, we can say with high certainty that this year’s ice melt will extend the trend of a rebounding Arctic ice mass by another year.

Arctic summer sea ice now growing 12 years

Our Japanese skeptic blogger and good friend Kirye reports using the data from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI) that peak summer Arctic sea ice volume upward growth trend has been extended yet another year – now 12 years.

Chart by Kirye. Data source: Danish Meteorology Institute (DMI).

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only geology

Research into deadly 2016 Italian earthquakes could improve future seismic forecasts

by Durham University, Augsut23, 2018 in ScienceDaily

The timing and size of three deadly earthquakes that struck Italy in 2016 may have been pre-determined, according to new research that could improve future earthquake forecasts.

A joint British-Italian team of geologists and seismologists have shown that the clustering of the three quakes might have been caused by the arrangement of a cross-cutting network of underground faults.

The findings show that although all three earthquakes occurred on the same major fault, several smaller faults prevented a single massive earthquake from occurring instead and also acted as pathways for naturally occurring fluids that triggered later earthquakes.

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climate-debate

NASA alarmism headline: ‘A World On Fire’

by Anthony Watts, August 23, 2018 in WUWT

The world is on fire. Or so it appears in this image from NASA’s Worldview. The red points overlaid on the image designate those areas that by using thermal bands detect actively burning fires. Africa seems to have the most concentrated fires. This could be due to the fact that these are most likely agricultural fires. The location, widespread nature, and number of fires suggest that these fires were deliberately set to manage land. Farmers often use fire to return nutrients to the soil and to clear the ground of unwanted plants. While fire helps enhance crops and grasses for pasture, the fires also produce smoke that degrades air quality.

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better to know...?, energy and fields, renewable energy

La France dans le noir. Les méfaits de l’idéologie en politique énergétique

by Johann Rivalland, 24 août 2018 in Contrepoints

Les nouvelles politiques énergétiques et le choix des énergies renouvelables sont-ils en train de nous mener droit dans le mur ?

Hervé Machenaud a mené toute sa carrière professionnelle dans le secteur de l’énergie, où il a notamment contribué à la création de centrales nucléaires en France et à l’étranger et à la conception de l’EPR, le réacteur franco-allemand.

C’est en spécialiste des questions industrielles liées à l’énergie qu’il tire la sonnette d’alarme, mettant en cause des orientations politiques périlleuses, susceptibles selon lui de causer des dommages colossaux à nos sociétés dans leur ensemble.

UN CONSTAT IMPLACABLE

Au cours de la dernière décennie, ce sont des montants gigantesques de dépréciations qui ont été essuyés par les grands électriciens européens. Plus de 100 milliards d’euros rien qu’en quatre ans depuis 2014. Constat qui se paye par un désengagement préoccupant des grandes compagnies dans la production d’électricité. Au total, ce sont en effet 60 GW de moyens conventionnels d’électricité qui auront été arrêtés en Europe à la fin de la décennie, précise-t-il, soit l’équivalent du parc nucléaire français.

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better to know...?, climate and geology

Napoleon at Waterloo versus the volcano – Napoleon lost

by Anthony Watts, August 23, 2018 in WUWT

Napoleon’s defeat at Waterloo caused in part by Indonesian volcanic eruption

Electrically charged volcanic ash short-circuited Earth’s atmosphere in 1815, causing global poor weather and Napoleon’s defeat, says new research.

Historians know that rainy and muddy conditions helped the Allied army defeat the French Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte at the Battle of Waterloo. The June 1815 event changed the course of European history.

Two months prior, a volcano named Mount Tambora erupted on the Indonesian island of Sumbawa, killing 100,000 people and plunging the Earth into a ‘year without a summer’ in 1816.

Now, Dr Matthew Genge from Imperial College London has discovered that electrified volcanic ash from eruptions can ‘short-circuit’ the electrical current of the ionosphere – the upper level of the atmosphere that is responsible for cloud formation.

The findings, published today in Geology, could confirm the suggested link between the eruption and Napoleon’s defeat.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Scientists discover that the world contains dramatically more trees than previously thought

by Chris Money, September 2, 2015 in TheWashingtonPost

In a blockbuster study released Wednesday in Nature, a team of 38 scientists finds that the planet is home to 3.04 trillion trees, blowing away the previously estimate of 400 billion. That means, the researchers say, that there are 422 trees for every person on Earth.

However, in no way do the researchers consider this good news. The study also finds that there are 46 percent fewer trees on Earth than there were before humans started the lengthy, but recently accelerating, process of deforestation.

“We can now say that there’s less trees than at any point in human civilization,” says Thomas Crowther, a postdoctoral researcher at the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies who is the lead author on the research. “Since the spread of human influence, we’ve reduced the number almost by half, which is an astronomical thing.”

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climate-debate

Greenland Temperatures In 2017

by P. Homewood, July 1, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

As we all know, Greenland is warming up rapidly, causing the ice sheet to melt faster and faster.

Well, according to the BBC and New York Times, at least.

Only one slight problem – the temperature record shows quite a different story.

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There is certainly no evidence of rising temperature trends, and every likelihood that temperatures will plummet again when the AMO turns cold again.

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energy and fields

World Energy Investment 2018

by Faith Birol, August 2018 in InternationalEnergyAgency

Total energy investment has fallen again…
2017 was the third consecutive year of decline in global energy investment with energy efficiency the lone sector of growth. Despite a 6% decline in spending, the electricity sector again attracted the largest share of energy sector investments, exceeding the oil and gas industry for the second year in row, as the energy sector moves toward greater electrification.

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Here the .pdf

climate-debate

Holocene Sea Level Trends

by P. Homewood, August 22, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

There seems to be a general acceptance about overall sea level trends during the Holocene.

There was naturally a very rapid rise in sea levels at the end of the ice age, until 6000 years ago, since when the rise has been much more gradual. Some research puts the rate of rise in the last 2000 years at 0.07mm/yr, and this reflects the fact that ice caps left over from the ice age are still melting, rather than that the world is warmer than before.

However, the impression is often given that, until the 20thC, this rate of rise has been pretty steady. This is despite the fact some of the authors of the above studies have warned of the existence of significant short-term fluctuations in sea level such that the sea level curve might oscillate up and down about this ~1 kyr mean state. [The above graph is based around 1000 year averages].

 

HH Lamb looked carefully at many expert studies in his day, and wrote about the very significant fluctuations they found. The following excerpts come from “Climate, History and the Modern World”:

1) The most rapid phases [of sea level rise] were between 8000 and 5000 BC, and that the rise of general water level was effectively over by about 2000 BC, when it may have stood a metre or two higher than today.

2) …

….

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Holocene_Sea_Level.png

 

energy and fields

L’électricité intermittente. Une réalité et un prix.

by prof. Samuel Furfari, 21 août 2018 in ScienceClimatEnergie

Il ne se passe pas un jour sans que surgisse sur les réseaux sociaux ou dans les médias une discussion sur le prix de l’électricité. Pour les uns, le prix de l’électricité produite par les énergies renouvelables est bas et pour les autres au contraire il est élevé. Qui a raison ?

Il faut examiner l’ensemble de la filière de la génération d’électricité pour pouvoir juger et non pas comme on le fait trop souvent se cantonner à un seul aspect. Nous allons donc procéder étape par étape, de manière à présenter de manière objective ce qu’il en est. Nous allons d’abord constater que la génération d’électricité à partir d’énergies renouvelables est déjà une forte réalité et qu’elle est en croissance. Nous allons ensuite observer qu’il est crucial d’équilibrer constamment la génération d’électricité et sa consommation et que cela ne peut se faire que par l’intermédiaire d’un réseau. Nous passerons ensuite au caractère intermittent de certaines énergies renouvelables et verrons quelles en sont les conséquences pour enfin pouvoir aborder la réalité des prix aux consommateurs. Dans la dernière partie nous allons parler du prix de l’électricité que nous payons en tant que consommateur et qui n’est pas bien entendu le coût de production.

Le but de cet article est qu’à travers cette démarche pédagogique le lecteur puisse se faire sa propre opinion sur la question du prix de l’électricité d’origine renouvelable.

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energy and fields

La filière hydrogène pour la production d’électricité, un mythe?

by JP Schaeken Willemaers, 20août 2018 in ScienceClimatEnergie

Depuis des décennies l’hydrogène revient régulièrement à l’ordre du jour comme moyen de stocker l’énergie pour ensuite la convertir en électricité. Cette filière est particulièrement prisée dans le cadre d’une politique bas carbone vu qu’elle n’émet pas de gaz à effet de serre (GES ) la combustion de l’hydrogène ne produisant que de l’eau. Bien entendu  la production de ce gaz doit elle-même « être  propre ».

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sciences-general

Direct evidence of surface exposed water ice in the lunar polar regions

by Shaui Li et al., August 20, 2018 PNAS

We found direct and definitive evidence for surface-exposed water ice in the lunar polar regions. The abundance and distribution of ice on the Moon are distinct from those on other airless bodies in the inner solar system such as Mercury and Ceres, which may be associated with the unique formation and evolution process of our Moon. These ice deposits might be utilized as an in situ resource in future exploration of the Moon.

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only geology, sciences-general

Integrated genomic and fossil evidence illuminates life’s early evolution and eukaryote origin

by Holly C. Betts et al., August 20, 2018 in NatureEcology&Evolution

We derive a timescale of life, combining a reappraisal of the fossil material with new molecular clock analyses. We find the last universal common ancestor of cellular life to have predated the end of late heavy bombardment (>3.9 billion years ago (Ga)). The crown clades of the two primary divisions of life, Eubacteria and Archaebacteria, emerged much later (<3.4 Ga), relegating the oldest fossil evidence for life to their stem lineages. The Great Oxidation Event significantly predates the origin of modern Cyanobacteria, indicating that oxygenic photosynthesis evolved within the cyanobacterial stem lineage. Modern eukaryotes do not constitute a primary lineage of life and emerged late in Earth’s history (<1.84 Ga), falsifying the hypothesis that the Great Oxidation Event facilitated their radiation…

climate-debate

Observing glaciers in “real time”

by Anthony Watts, August 20, 2018 in WUWT

From ETH Zurich and the “slow as molasses in winter” department.

Hot summers cause glaciers to melt. That not only changes the makeup of the landscape and hence the maps of Switzerland, it also affects every area of society. A new, dynamic glacier inventory makes the impact of climate change and the changing landscape visible.

The last time Swiss glaciers managed to grow at all was in 2001. Since then, the country’s 1,500 glaciers – as well as others elsewhere – have been suffering a slow but inexorable death. Until now, though, we have understood only partially how quickly they are really disappearing, and what effect that has on the landscape, people and animals. That is about to change, thanks to the Glacier Monitoring in Switzerland (GLAMOS) project. GLAMOS is working on behalf of various Swiss federal offices to put together a comprehensive inventory of the country’s glaciers – at an unprecedented level of detail.

Glacier observation under the spell of several Valais four-thousand-metre peaks. (Photograph: GLAMOS)

The coloured lines show where the edge of the Aletsch glacier once was (red line 1850, green=1973, blue=2010). (Graphic: Swisstopo/GLAMOS)
climate-debate

America Had Lower CO2 Emissions Than Paris Climate Accord Signatories

by Stephen Moore, August 20, 2018 in ClimateChangeDispatch

Take a wild guess what country is reducing its greenhouse gas emissions the most? Canada? Britain? France? India? Germany? Japan? No, no, no, no, no and no.

The answer to that question is the United States of America. Wow! How can that be? This must be a misprint. Fake news. America never signed the Kyoto Protocol some two decades ago.

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climate-debate

Climate4you update July 2018

by Ole Humlum, August 20, 2018 in Climate4You

 

.pdf (49pages)

CONTENTS

July 2018 global surface air temperature overview

Comments to the July 2018 global surface air temperature overview Temperature quality class 1: Lower troposphere temperature from satellites Temperature quality class 2: HadCRUT global surface air temperature Temperature quality class 3: GISS and NCDC global surface air temperature Comparing global surface air temperature and satellite-based temperatures Global air temperature linear trends
Global temperatures: All in one, Quality Class 1, 2 and 3
Global sea surface temperature
Ocean temperature in uppermost 100 m
North Atlantic heat content uppermost 700 m
North Atlantic temperatures 0-800 m depth along 59N, 30-0W
Global ocean temperature 0-1900 m depth summary
Global ocean net temperature change since 2004 at different depths
La Niña and El Niño episodes
Troposphere and stratosphere temperatures from satellites
Zonal lower troposphere temperatures from satellites
Arctic and Antarctic lower troposphere temperatures from satellites Temperature over land versus over oceans
Arctic and Antarctic surface air temperatures
Arctic and Antarctic sea ice
Sea level in general
Global sea level from satellite altimetry
Global sea level from tide gauges
Northern Hemisphere weekly and seasonal snow cover
Atmospheric specific humidity
Atmospheric CO2
The phase relation between atmospheric CO2 and global temperature
Global air temperature and atmospheric CO2
Latest 20-year QC1 global monthly air temperature change
Sunspot activity and QC1 average satellite global air temperature
Climate and history: 1728: Vitus Bering and the non-discovery of Bering Strait

 

 

climate and geology, climate-debate

The Holocene Climate Optimum

by P. Homewood, August 19, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

Booker commented the other day how one scientist claimed last week that we now have “the highest temperatures on Earth since the last ice age”. The BBC failed to even challenge this statement.

This certainly is not the first time I have heard claims (presented as fact) to this effect.

We have already seen concerted attempts to disappear the MWP, so it is time to reclaim the Holocene Optimum (so named for good reason), which is generally accepted to have run from about 9000 to 5000 years ago

Obviously we had no thermometers around in those days, so nobody knows what the average temperature of the Earth was then. There again, nobody really knows now either.

But there is plentiful evidence that many places were significantly warmer than now. I present some of this evidence below, though this is probably only skimming the surface: …

See also here

La géologie, une science plus que passionnante … et diverse