Archives de catégorie : climate-debate

climate-debate

Matt Ridley: Hypocrisy is too feeble a word for the gulf between what world leaders preach at Cop28 and how much they still rely on fossil fuels

by P. Homewood, Dec 1,2023 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

As for predictable, do they take us for fools? After 27 previous Cop conferences we knew how this pantomime in Dubai would go.

Breakthrough! Deep into their umpteenth sleepless night of hard bargaining, the delegates at the Cop28 meeting in Dubai managed to upgrade a verb in their final deal.

Instead of saying nations ‘could’ take action, the agreement ‘calls on’ them to take action. Incredible! Cue rapturous applause and a standing ovation as representatives from 197 countries approved the historic ‘UAE Consensus’ on climate change.

‘There’s stronger verb forms but I think it does send a strong signal nonetheless,’ crowed a delegate from the World Resources Institute.

This verb miracle — alongside language about ‘transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems [electricity, heating, transport and industry] in a just, orderly and equitable manner’ — is as futile as it was predictable. It’s futile because it will lead to the cancellation of precisely zero coal-fired power stations or oil-exploration plans.

China and India, despite spouting the Cop catechism, are between them approving the equivalent of a new coal plant every two or three days.

In America, which led calls to transition away from fossil fuels, oil and gas production has never been higher: it now produces far more oil than Saudi Arabia. Brazil — while demanding the phasing out of fossil fuels — plans to become the world’s largest oil producer by 2030.

Hypocrisy is too feeble a word for this gap between preaching and practice.

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In the year 2000, according to the Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy, 84 per cent of the world’s primary energy came from fossil fuels. Last year, after 23 years of transitioning away from fossil fuels — and 27 interminable Cop conferences since 1995 — that number was… 82 per cent. At this rate it will take us till the year 3909AD to give up fossil fuels. No wonder a large chunk of the population thinks these talks are futile nonsense

climate-debate

SE Asian Sea Levels Were 3-4 Meters Higher Than Today 7-4 Thousand Years Ago

by K. Richard, Dec 12, 2023 in NoTricksZone

Comprehensive data analysis shows relative sea levels were anywhere from 1 to 7 meters (~3.9 m) higher than present throughout the Mid-Holocene at 15 of 16 assessed sites across Southeast Asia.

A new study (Li et al., 2023) compiles highstand records from sites spanning Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Borneo, Sunda Shelf, Makassar Strait…and indicates that throughout southeast Asia there was a “peak RSL [relative sea level] highstand of ~3.9 ±1.1 m at ~6 ka BP or later.”

Of the 16 locations assessed, just 1 did not indicate sea levels were higher than present back when CO2 levels were alleged to be 265 ppm.

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climate-debate

On Hens, Eggs, Temperatures and CO2: Causal Links in Earth’s Atmosphere

by D. Koutsoyiannis et al., Sept 2023 in MDPI/Springer

Abstract

The scientific and wider interest in the relationship between atmospheric temperature (T) and concentration of carbon dioxide ([CO2]) has been enormous. According to the commonly assumed causality link, increased [CO2] causes a rise in T. However, recent developments cast doubts on this assumption by showing that this relationship is of the hen-or-egg type, or even unidirectional but opposite in direction to the commonly assumed one. These developments include an advanced theoretical framework for testing causality based on the stochastic evaluation of a potentially causal link between two processes via the notion of the impulse response function. Using, on the one hand, this framework and further expanding it and, on the other hand, the longest available modern time series of globally averaged T and [CO2], we shed light on the potential causality between these two processes. All evidence resulting from the analyses suggests a unidirectional, potentially causal link with T as the cause and [CO2] as the effect. That link is not represented in climate models, whose outputs are also examined using the same framework, resulting in a link opposite the one found when the real measurements are used.

Graphical Abstract

Science is generated by and devoted to free inquiry: the idea that any hypothesis, no matter how strange, deserves to be considered on its merits. The suppression of uncomfortable ideas may be common in religion and politics, but it is not the path to knowledge; it has no place in the endeavor of science. We do not know in advance who will discover fundamental new insights.
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climate-debate

Sheenjek, Alaska: A Jacoby-MBH Series

by S. McIntyre, Dec13, 2023 in ClimateAudit

MBH98 used three Jacoby tree ring chronologies from Alaska: Four Twelve (ak031) – discussed here, Arrigetch (ak032) and Sheenjek (ak033). Sheenjek will be discussed in this article.

In our compilation of MBH98 in 2003, we observed that the Sheenjek chronology archived at NOAA Paleo was not the same as the “grey” version used in MBH98.   While we used the MBH98 version to benchmark our emulation of the MBH98 algorithm, we used the version archived at NOAA in our sensitivity analysis, both in our 2003 article and in our early 2004 submission to Nature.  In his reply to our submission, Mann vehemently protested that the “introduc[tion of] an extended version of another Northern Treeline series not available prior to AD 1500 at the time of MBH98” “introduce[d] problems into the important Northern Treeline dataset used by MBH98”:

Finally, MM04 introduce problems into the important Northern Treeline dataset used by MBH98. Aside from incorrectly substituting shorter versions of the “Kuujuag” and TTHH Northern Treeline series for those used by MBH98, and introducing an extended version of another Northern Treeline series not available prior to AD 1500 at the time of MBH98, they censored from the analysis the only Northern Treeline series in the MBH98 network available over the AD 1400-1500 interval, on the technicality that it begins only in AD 1404 (MBH98 accommodated this detail by setting the values for AD 1400-1404 equal)

The other “Northern Treeline series” referred to here was Sheenjek chronology ak033.crn.  I checked Mann’s assertion alleging that the data was “not available prior to AD1500 at the time of MBH98”. This was contradicted by NOAA, who confirmed that the chronology that we had used had been available since the early 1990s.

In the figure below, I’ve compared three Sheenjek chronology versions:

  • the MBH98 version from 1580-1979 (plus 1980 infill);
  • the ModNegExp chronology (dplR) calculated from measurement data (ak033.rwl), which, in this case, has been available since the 1990s. It covers period 1296-1979.
  • the archived chronology at NOAA (ak033.crn). Also covering the period 1296-1979.

The issues relating to Sheenjek are different than observed at Four Twelve.

Continuer la lecture de Sheenjek, Alaska: A Jacoby-MBH Series →

climate-debate, energy and fields

COP28: India doubles down on right to increase coal power and CO2 emissions

by P. Homewood, Nov 30, 2023 in NotaMotofPeopleKnowThat

“India cannot survive without coal as it has no other options.”

India has committed itself to greater coal-fired generation use ahead of the UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai and is set to voice developing nations’ demands for a greater share of the carbon emissions budget at the Nov. 30-Dec. 12 summit.
India is the world’s third-largest emitter of carbon dioxide after China and the US, with a booming economy driving electricity demand up 9.6% in fiscal year 2023.


“There will be pressure again on those countries who use coal,” RK Singh, minister of power and new and renewable energy, said Nov. 6. “Our point of view is that we are not going to compromise with the availability of power for growth.”
Public sector power companies are constructing about 27 GW of thermal plants — almost all coal — but this is insufficient, according to Singh. The country needs “at least 80 GW” of new capacity to meet future demand, he said.


India generated 149.66 TWh of electricity in September, of which 108.70 TWh, or 73%, was coal-fired, data from Central Electricity Authority showed. The coal-fired figure was up 17% year on year.
S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts the share of coal-fired generation in India’s power mix will rise to 77% by 2025 before falling to 71% in 2030 and 52% by 2050.


“India cannot survive without coal as it has no other options,” said Rashika Gupta, research and analysis director at S&P Global. “Nuclear and hydro take a decade to build, gas is not available, and LNG is very expensive. India’s forte has always been coal — it knows how to operate it, and there is indigenous capacity to build it.”
Full story

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climate-debate

Cop28 president says there is ‘no science’ behind demands for phase-out of fossil fuels

by The Guardian, Dec 3, 2023

The president of Cop28, Sultan Al Jaber, has claimed there is “no science” indicating that a phase-out of fossil fuels is needed to restrict global heating to 1.5C, the Guardian and the Centre for Climate Reporting can reveal.

Al Jaber also said a phase-out of fossil fuels would not allow sustainable development “unless you want to take the world back into caves”.

The comments were “incredibly concerning” and “verging on climate denial”, scientists said, and they were at odds with the position of the UN secretary general, António Guterres.

Al Jaber made the comments in ill-tempered responses to questions from Mary Robinson, the chair of the Elders group and a former UN special envoy for climate change, during a live online event on 21 November. As well as running Cop28 in Dubai, Al Jaber is also the chief executive of the United Arab Emirates’ state oil company, Adnoc, which many observers see as a serious conflict of interest.

 

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climate-debate

After 25 years, Mann’s Other Nature Trick Unraveled

by McIntyre, Nov 25, 2023 in WUWT

Stephen McIntyre has recently again fired up the seminal site for uncovering deficiencies in the works of Mann et al, ClimateAudit.org

His latest post ends a 25 year mystery surrounding the famous MBH98 paper. A Swedish engineer, Hampus Soderqvist, reversed engineered the reconstruction and deduced that:

Mann’s list of proxies  for AD1400 and other early steps was partly incorrect (Nature link now dead – but see  NOAA or here).  Mann’s AD1400 list included four series that were not actually used (two French tree ring series and two Moroccan tree ring series), while it omitted four series that were actually used.  This also applied to his AD1450 and AD1500 steps.  Mann also used an AD1650 step that was not reported.

Soderqvist’s discovery has an important application.

The famous MBH98 reconstruction was a splice of 11 different stepwise reconstructions with steps ranging from AD1400 to AD1820. The proxy network in the AD1400 step (after principal components) consisted 22 series, increasing to 112 series (after principal components) in the AD1820 step.  Mann reported several statistics for the individual steps, but, as discussed over and over, withheld the important verification r2 statistic.  By withholding the results of the individual steps, Mann made it impossible for anyone to carry out routine statistical tests on his famous reconstruction.

However, by reverse engineering of the actual content of each network, Soderqvist was also able to calculate each step of the reconstruction – exactly matching each subset in the spliced reconstruction.  Soderqvist placed his results online at his github site a couple of days ago and I’ve collated the results and placed them online here as well.  Thus, after almost 25 years, the results of the individual MBH98 steps are finally available.

Remarkably, Soderqvist’s discovery of the actual composition of the AD1400 (and other early networks) sheds new light on the controversy about principal components that animated Mann’s earliest realclimate articles – on December 4, 2004 as realclimate was unveiled. Both articles were attacks on us (McIntyre and McKitrick) while our GRL submission was under review and while Mann was seeking to block publication. Soderqvist’s work shows that some of Mann’s most vehement claims were untrue, but, oddly, untrue in a way that was arguably unhelpful to the argument that he was trying to make. It’s quite weird.

Soderqvist is a Swedish engineer, who, as @detgodehab, discovered a remarkable and fatal flaw in the “signal-free” tree ring methodology used in PAGES2K (see X here).  Soderqvist had figured this out a couple of years ago. But I was unaware of this until a few days ago when Soderqvist mentioned it in comments on a recent blog article on MBH98 residuals.

https://climateaudit.org/2023/11/24/mbh98-new-light-on-the-real-data/

The post is a long and technical one to which I cannot do proper justice, and I suggest reading the original at Climate Audit

climate-debate

In Climatology, Whatever Happened To Evidence-Based Science?

by J. Hellner, Nov 21, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

Isn’t it time that journalists and students are taught to do research and ask questions about the climate instead of just regurgitating talking points pushing the green agenda?

We are constantly told that storms, floods, droughts, and other natural disasters are growing in frequency and intensity—so why don’t we see specific examples? [emphasis, links added]

Like the severe drought and warm period in Europe in 1540 when temperatures were 9–13 degrees above today’s averageduring the Little Ice Age?

For eleven months, there was practically no rain, and temperatures were five to seven degrees [Celsius] [9–13°F] above the normal values of the 20th century; in many places, summer temperatures must have exceeded 40°C (104°F).

Many forests in Europe went up in flames, choking smoke darkened the sun, and not a single thunderstormwas reported in the summer of 1540.

Water was already scarce in May, wells and springs dried up, mills stood still, people starved, and livestock was slaughtered. Estimates are that in 1540, half a million people died, mostly from dysentery.

Or what about the massive fires in the United States in 1871? In 1871, the Midwestern United States had a severe drought and warm weather, clearly not caused by humans and our use of natural resources.

As a result of this heat and drought, there were severe fires throughout the Midwest, including the Great Chicago Fire.

The temperature was 85 degrees on October 8, 1871. This year the high was 55 degrees, or thirty degrees cooler.

Why isn’t Chicago warmer, after 152 years, with all the cement, people, and gas vehicles and equipment if they all cause warming?

The Chicago fire alone caused $200 million in damages, which is the equivalent of over $5 billion today.

I am 70 years old, and I don’t recall serious fires during my lifetime in the Midwest.

The narrative that humans and our use of natural resources are to blame for warming temperatures, in turn creating an existential threat to our survival, is contrary to the data and facts; scientific honesty would be forming a narrative based on the evidence, instead of forcing “evidence” to fit a story.

What about the Medieval Warm Period 1,000 years ago where temperatures were similar to today? What caused that warming since it clearly wasn’t man’s use of natural resources?

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Robust evidence for reversal of the trend in aerosol effective climate forcing

by J. Quass et al., 2022 in EurGeoscUnion

Abstract

Anthropogenic aerosols exert a cooling influence that offsets part of the greenhouse gas warming. Due to their short tropospheric lifetime of only several days, the aerosol forcing responds quickly to emissions. Here, we present and discuss the evolution of the aerosol forcing since 2000. There are multiple lines of evidence that allow us to robustly conclude that the anthropogenic aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) – both aerosol–radiation interactions (ERFari) and aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci) – has become less negative globally, i.e. the trend in aerosol effective radiative forcing changed sign from negative to positive. Bottom-up inventories show that anthropogenic primary aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions declined in most regions of the world; observations related to aerosol burden show declining trends, in particular of the fine-mode particles that make up most of the anthropogenic aerosols; satellite retrievals of cloud droplet numbers show trends in regions with aerosol declines that are consistent with these in sign, as do observations of top-of-atmosphere radiation. Climate model results, including a revised set that is constrained by observations of the ocean heat content evolution show a consistent sign and magnitude for a positive forcing relative to the year 2000 due to reduced aerosol effects. This reduction leads to an acceleration of the forcing of climate change, i.e. an increase in forcing by 0.1 to 0.3 W m−2, up to 12 % of the total climate forcing in 2019 compared to 1750 according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Recycling Eco-Myths Is the Existential Threat

by  P. Zane, Nov 17, 2023 in WUWT

The recycling myth – Save the planet by separating paper and plastic! – is a foundational falsity of the green movement.

By promising a relatively simple solution to an alleged problem, it has enabled the left to control behavior through a made-up morality that stigmatized dissent – Only bad people refuse to recycle.

Like most progressive interventions – from welfare policies that destroyed families while increasing dependency, to drug use reforms that have filled city streets with desperate addicts – recycling plans that sound good on paper (and plastic) have continuously collided with reality so that even liberal outlets such as the New York Times (“Your Recycling Gets Recycled, Right? Maybe, or Maybe Not”), NPR(“Recycling plastic is practically impossible — and the problem is getting worse”) and the Atlantic magazine (“Plastic Recycling Doesn’t Work and Will Never Work”) have finally admitted its failures.

The same dynamic is now at work regrading a far more significant green fantasy: the left’s push to decarbonize the U.S. and other Western industrial economies during the next few decades and attain an eco-purity calculus known as Net Zero. While brandishing the moral cudgel with full force – President Biden describes climate change as “an existential crisis,” i.e., every person and puppy will die if we don’t submit to his agenda – the left also suggests the transition will be easy-peasy: Just build some windmills, install some solar panels, and swap out your car, stove, and lightbulbs for cleaner and cheaper alternatives.

Though much of the cheerleading media downplays this fact, it is already clear that Biden’s enormously expensive, massively disruptive goal is a pipe dream. In a recent series of articles, my colleagues at RealClearInvestigations have reported on several of the seemingly intractable problems that the administration and its eco-allies are trying to wish away.

The dishonesty begins with the engine of the green economy – the vast array of wind and solar farms that must be constructed to replace the coal and gas facilities that power our economy. James Varney reported for RCI that the Department of Energy’s official line is that the installations required to meet Biden’s goal of “100% clean electricity” by 2035 will require “less than one-half of one percent of the contiguous U.S. land area” – or roughly 15,000 of the lower 48’s roughly 3 million square miles. However, Varney noted, “the government report that furnished those estimates also notes that the wind farm footprint alone could require an expanse nine times as large: 134,000 square miles. That is equivalent to the land mass of Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky combined – plus all of New England.

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climate-debate

North Atlantic’s marine productivity may not be declining, according to new study of older ice cores

by Universiy of Washington, Nov 13, 2023 in PhysOrg

To paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of declining phytoplankton in the North Atlantic may have been greatly exaggerated. A prominent 2019 study used ice cores in Antarctica to suggest that marine productivity in the North Atlantic had declined by 10% during the industrial era, with worrying implications that the trend might continue.

But new research led by the University of Washington shows that —on which larger organisms throughout the marine ecosystem depend—may be more stable than believed in the North Atlantic. The team’s analysis of an going back 800 years shows that a more complex atmospheric process may explain the recent trends.

The study was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

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climate-debate

New Study: Antarctic Sea Ice Completed Half Its Deglacial Retreat 1000s Of Years Before CO2 Began Rising

by K. Richard, Nov 16, 2023 in NotricksZone

The timing of the dramatic Antarctic sea ice decline during the last deglaciation suggests solar forcing and sea ice retreat “instigated” century-scale climate warming and atmospheric CO2 change. This would appear to challenge the perception CO2 plays a causal role in glacial-interglacial sea ice and climate changes.

From ~21,000 to 19,500 years ago, when CO2 was thought to have been at its lowest point in the Quaternary ice age (~180 ppm), the sea ice surrounding East and West Antarctica completed 50% of its eventual deglaciation-era decline (Sadatzki et al., 2023).

“[I]ndependent lines of evidence supporting that early sea ice and surface ocean changes in the Southern Ocean initiated as early as ~19.5 ka ago (with signs of summer sea ice retreat in our reconstruction as early as ~21 ka ago) and thus (at least) about 2 ka before major deglacial changes in global ocean circulation, climate, and atmospheric CO2.”

The increase in 65°S insolation during these millennia was deemed sufficient to drive this magnitude of sea ice retreat.

“This early increase in local integrated summer insolation at 65°S, which is independent of the longitude, may have thus provided enough energy to initiate melting of the near-perennial sea ice cover in late glacial.”

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better to know...?, climate-debate

While Media Obsess About Some Warmth, Globe Seeing Plenty Of Unusual Cold Events

by P. Gosselin, Nov 17, 2023 in WUWT

Surface temperatures measured where people live show there’s as much cold as there ‘s warmth, see temperature.global.com.

Christian Freuer’s Cold Report (EIKE)

and Electroverse.com

Snowpack extent in US reaches record levels!

America’s first Arctic air blast of the season broke hundreds of low temperature records and led to the largest snowpack extent there in early November in NOAA records.

A high snowpack blanketed the Rocky Mountains, northern Plains, Great Lakes and northern New England, resulting in 17.9% of the Lower 48 under a blanket of snow as the calendar turned to November – a new record in the books dating back to 2003.

Many places recorded their snowiest Halloweens ever.

At 22 inches, Muskegon, MI, not only recorded the snowiest Halloween ever, but also the snowiest October day and month. Glasgow, MT, recorded the snowiest start to the season with 36 inches.

The cold broke hundreds of low temperature records across the country, from Texas to Maine, dropping the average temperature in the Lower 48 to -0.5°C – more than 5 degrees Celsius below normal.

Historic November cold grips Argentina, Australia

A late cold spell has hit large parts of South America, especially Argentina. The country recorded the lowest November temperatures since records began.

A number of records for highs and lows have fallen. New lows include the 0.1°C at Córdoba Airport, which broke the record of 2°C set on November 4, 1992, the 1.6°C in Chamical, which broke the record of 4.5°C set on November 9, 2010, and the 2.8°C in Mendova, which beat the 3.2°C set in 1992.

New lows include Gualeguaychú’s 13.8°C, which broke the old record set in 1992, and Paraná’s 13.5°C, which beat the record set in 1936.

The cold was severe, up to 24 degrees Celsius below normal, and it was also widespread, affecting most of Argentina:

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climate-debate

Terrestrial temperature, sea levels and ice area links with solar activity and solar orbital motion

by V. Zharkova & I. Vasilieeva, Nov 2023

Abstract: This paper explores the links between terrestrial temperature, sea levels and ice areas in both hemispheres with solar activity indices expressed through averaged sunspot numbers together with the summary curve of eigen vectors of the solar background magnetic field (SBMF) and with changes of Sun-Earth distances caused by solar inertial motion resulting from the gravitation of large planets in the solar system.

Using the wavelet analysis of the GLB  and HadCRUTS datasets two periods: 21.4  and 36 years in GLB, set   and the period of about 19.6 years  in the HadCRUTS are discovered. The 21.4 year period is associated with variations in solar activity defined by the summary curve of the largest eigen vectors of the SBMF. A dominant 21.4-year period is also reported in the variations of the sea level, which is linked with the period of 21.4 years detected in the GLB temperature and the summary curve of the SBMF variations.  The wavelet analysis  of ice and snow areas shows that  in the Southern hemisphere it does not show any links to solar activity periods while in the Northern hemisphere the ice area  reveals  a period of 10.7 years equal to a usual solar acitviity cycle.

The TSI in March-August of every year  is found  to grow with every year following closely the temperature curve, because the Sun moves  closer to the Earth orbit owing to gravitation of large planets. (solar inertial motion, SIM). While the variations of solar radiation during a whole year have  more steady distribution without  a sharp TSI increase  during the last two centuries. The additional TSI contribution caused by SIM is likely to secure the additional energy input and exchange between the ocean and atmosphere.

 

Link to pre-print:  https://solargsm.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/zharkova_tsi_nc_form_subm-1.pdf

 

The paper is accepted for publication.

climate-debate

The Toxic Truth: The Impact Of Green Energy On Wildlife And The Environment

by L. Balzer, Nov 9, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

We’ve been told repeatedly by the media that electricity produced by renewables is clean, essentially free energy, better for the environment than traditional sources such as coal and natural gas.

But is that true? Maybe we should look at the facts.

Wind turbines injure, maim, and kill hundreds of thousands of birds and bats each year in clear violation of federal law.

The Golden Gate Audubon Society in California reported that the wind farm at Altamont was killing about 10,000 birds, including over 1,100 birds of prey, each year.

Strangely, wind farm enthusiasts ignore the numbers and types of birds killed by wind turbines, even those who call themselves “environmentalists”.

Offshore wind turbines have similar impacts on marine birds, and, according to the Union of Concerned Scientists, offshore wind farms also impact fish and other marine wildlife.

Currently, the construction of an offshore wind farm about 15 miles off the coast of Massachusetts is underway. The foundation pieces for the huge wind turbines, called monopiles, are being driven into the seafloor by pile drivers.

Pile-driving noise can deafen, injure, or even kill marine mammals. At least fourteen dying humpback whaleswere recently washed up on beaches in this area. The people building these projects are fully aware of the damage to marine life that they are causing and will cause.

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climate-debate

Climatologist: Are We Really In An Unprecedented Time Of Warming?

by M. Wilelicki, Nov 7, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events are one of the most striking discoveries in earth science related to past climate.

They are named after the two climatologists, Willi Dansgaard and Hans Oeschger, who were instrumental in their identification.

These events are rapid climate fluctuations that occurred frequently during the last glacial period, illustrating a planet capable of swift and dramatic temperature shifts. [emphasis, links added]

The discovery of D-O events can be traced back to the ice core drilling projects in Greenland in the late 20th century.

Analysis of the isotopic composition of ice cores, particularly the ratio of oxygen isotopes 18O and 16O, revealed evidence of abrupt climatic changes.

These isotopes served as proxies for past temperatures, with higher ratios indicating warmer periods.

The meticulous work of Dansgaard and Oeschger, along with their colleagues, in the 1980s led to the recognition that the Earth’s climate has not always changed at a steady pace but has seen dramatic swings, especially during the last glacial period around 115,000 to 11,700 years ago.

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climate-debate

To what extent are temperature levels changing due to greenhouse gas emissions?

by J.K. Dagsvik & S.H. Moen,  Nov  2023 in  StatisticsNorway

Abstract

Weather and temperatures vary in ways that are difficult to explain and predict precisely. In this article we review data on temperature variations in the past as well possible reasons for thesevariations. Subsequently, we review key properties of global climate models and statistical analyses conducted by others on the ability of the global climate models to track historical temperatures.

These tests show that standard climate models are rejected by time series data on global temperatures. Finally, we update and extend previous statistical analysis of temperature data
(Dagsvik et al., 2020). Using theoretical arguments and statistical tests we find, as in Dagsvik et al.(2020), that the effect of man-made CO2 emissions does not appear to be strong enough to cause systematic changes in the temperature fluctuations during the last 200 years.

Keywords: Global climate models, Climate change, Temperature analysis, Fractional Gaussian noise,
Long-range dependence

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climate-debate

The Earth Is Mildly Warming, But Is CO2 The Cause?

by H.W. Jenkins, Nov 6, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

If this column has ever plagiarized itself, it’s by repeating the phrase “evidence of warming is not evidence of what causes warming.”

A paper published by the Norwegian government’s statistical agency, written by two of its retired experts, touching on this very subject has called forth so many shrieked accusations of climate apostasy that you know it must be interesting.

The authors ask a simple question: Are computerized climate simulations a sufficient basis for attributing observed warming to human CO2? [emphasis, links added]

After all, the Earth’s climate has been subject to substantial warming and cooling trends for millenniathat remain unexplained and can’t be attributed to fossil fuels.

As statisticians, their conclusion: “With the current level of knowledge, it seems impossible to determine how much of the temperature increase is due to emissions of CO2.”

Wow. For all the abuse dumped on them for this modest observation, and even some apologetic hemming and hawing from the government-run Statistics Norway, the authors don’t say climate models don’t make useful predictions.

Their predictions are useful precisely for testing the validity of climate models. What’s more, many concerned about climate change have no trouble seeing the problem as a matter of risks rather than certainties.

This includes coauthor John Dagsvik, who told Norway’s Aftenposten newspaper he favors emissions curbs for precautionary reasons.

The correlation-to-causation puzzle is hardly the authors’ invention, having bedeviled the oracular Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) since its founding in 1988.

But unrestrained name-calling is required, the critics say, because anything that undermines confidence in climate models undermines progress against climate change.

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climate-debate, Cooling

New Study Finds Most Of Antarctica Has Cooled By Over 1°C Since 1999…W. Antarctica Cooled 1.8°C

by K. Richard, Nov 6, 2023 in NoTricksZone

Significant 21st century cooling in the Central Pacific, Eastern Pacific, and nearly all of Antarctica “implies substantial uncertainties in future temperature projections of CMIP6 models.” – Zhang et al., 2023

New research indicates West Antarctica’s mean annual surface temperatures cooled by more than -1.8°C (-0.93°C per decade) from 1999-2018. In spring, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) cooling rate reached -1.84°C per decade.

Not only has the WAIS undergone significant cooling in the last two decades, most of the continent also cooled by more than 1°C. See, for example, the ~1°C per decade cooling trend for East Antarctica (2000 to 2018) shown in Fig. ES1.

Of 28 CMIP6 models, none captured a cooling trend – especially of this amplitude – for this region. This modeling failure “implies substantial uncertainties in future temperature projections of CMIP6 models.

 

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The post-1999 cooling trend has not just been confined to Antarctica. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Eastern and Central Pacific (south of 25°N) also cooled from 1999-2018 relative to 1979-1997. This cooling encompasses nearly half of the Southern Hemisphere’s SSTs.

climate-debate

Ahead Of COP28, Climate Policies Are Collapsing Around The World

by  T. Corcoran, Nov 3, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

On the United Nations’ official website for this month’s COP28 climate conference in Dubai [pictured], about four hours by plane from Gaza, the countdown is underway.

At about the time this column was published, the official UN wait time for the opening of COP28 would have been 28 days, 12 hours, 39 minutes, and 12 seconds. That’s not much time to overcome the current collapsing state of climate policy around the world. [emphasis, links added]

The reasons for policy turmoil are at once global, national, and local across a range of developments and complications. They include the wars in Gaza and Ukraine, national policy meltdowns over carbon taxes, and major issues related to technology, science, and economics.

On Monday in Dubai, the head of the COP28 event — United Arab Emirates Industry Minister Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber — called for international cooperation and compromise in the face of growing political and economic divisions over the UN plan to phase out the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas.

Al Jaber’s concerns were echoed with stronger language of doubt from the European Union’s Climate Action Commissioner. Wopke Hoekstra said the only real item on the COP28 agenda is to reach a consensus on phasing out fossil fuels.

Given the “geopolitically very troubling times,” it has never been harder to reach an agreement, he said.

Any review of developments over the past weeks points to a declining national and international climate policy environment that could lead to some kind of breakup.

Such a prediction could be wrong, of course, but consider the following evidence from all over.

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climate-debate

Study Suggests Causes of Climate Change Beyond CO2

by  H.S. Burnett, Nov 4, 2023 in WUWT

IN THIS ISSUE:

  • Study Suggests Causes of Climate Change Beyond CO2
  • Podcast of the Week: The Folly of Electric Vehicles: Heartland’s Jim Lakely on the Cut Jib Newsletter Podcast
  • Rock Weathering Not the Carbon Sink Once Believed
  • Concerns Raised About Consensus Science and Censorship
  • Manufacturers Face an EV Loyalty Problem
  • Video of the Week: Debunking Way-out Climate Alarmism Videos
  • Climate Comedy
  • Recommended Sites

Research recently published in the journal Atmosphere concludes that carbon dioxide is only one possible forcing factor driving recent climate changes, and probably not the dominant one.

Reviewing the literature since World War II, the author, Stuart Harris, Ph.D., a professor emeritus of geography with the University of Calgary, finds multiple other explanations have been offered in various studies at various times for recent climate changes, beyond today’s current bete noire, carbon dioxide.

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climate-debate

New Reconstructions From Brazil, China, Europe Indicate No Net Warming In Recent Centuries

by K. Richard, Oct 26, 2023 in NoTricksZone

Paleoclimate studies continue to undermine claims of “unprecedented” global warming in the modern era.

A new temperature reconstruction (Oliveira Silva Muraja et al., 2023) for Brazil reveals there has been no net modern warming since the 1400s.

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Another new temperature reconstruction (Yue et al., 2023) indicates there has been no net modern warming in Central China since the 1400s.

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climate-debate

Hot Summer In The City Or Global Boiling? Three New Studies Refute UN Hysteria

by M. Adams, Nov 1, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

Nobody can rightfully claim that summer 2023 did not generate its share of fantasy-laced headlines. In this regard, the United Nations remains the world champ of propaganda by cranking out headlines including the phrase “the era of global boiling has arrived.”

The ink barely dried when it was followed by another work of climate sensationalism, this time with a headline claiming “Humanity has opened the gates to hell.” [emphasis, links added]

Amidst the swirling vortex of lies, there’s new information from the CO2 Coalition.

How many people are aware that, according to the EPA’s data from 1948 to 2020, a total of 863 weather monitoring stations—that is, 81% of them—have reported that the number of hot days has either decreased or remained unchanged?

For those of you who prefer visuals over words, there is a brilliant map [shown below and at the link above] showing that, contrary to the UN’s hysteria, in the United States, at least, we are not facing an era of global boiling, nor are we looking into the gates of hell.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Shellenberger: Why Everything They’ve Said About The Environment Is Wrong

by M. Schellenberger, Nov 1, 2023 in ClimateChangeDispatch

By now, almost everyone knows the conventional wisdom: climate change is an existential threat to human civilization.

Fires, floods, and hurricanes are worsening; the coral on the Great Barrier Reef is dying; we’re in a Sixth Mass Extinction; the only way to turn things around is with inexpensive renewables, and no longer eating meat; and we don’t need nuclear energy, which is too dangerous. [emphasis, links added]

It’s a powerful story, one that has motivated millions of people to march in the streets and governments to spend $1 trillion annually on green energy.

There’s only one problem with it: practically everything you’ve heard about climate change is wrong.Here’s a set of facts you won’t read in The New York Times:

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Mark Lynas ‘99% Consensus’ on Climate Change – Busted in Peer Review.

by  A. Watts, Nov 1, 2023 in WUWT

My name is Yonatan Dubi, I am a professor of chemistry and physics at Ben Gurion University, Israel. I am also one of Israel’s leading advocates for rational environmentalism and climate realism. Together with a few colleagues we have conducted a very nice research, detailing and quantifying the flaws in the famous consensus study by Lynas et al, which (falsely) claimed the ridiculous 99% consensus. After a year long journey, our paper was finally published in the peer reviewed journal Climate, the link is https://www.mdpi.com/2225-1154/11/11/215.

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