Archives de catégorie : climate-debate

Solar Cycle Continues To Be The Weakest In 2 Centuries

by  F.  Bosse and  F. Vahrenholt, August 23, in NoTricksZone

The sun was completely free of spots on 11 days in July. Notable: while during last month the sun’s northern hemisphere was more active (in June all sunspots were in the northern hemisphere), last month the southern hemisphere was the most active part with 60% of the sunspots appearing there. The following diagram shows the course of solar cycle 24 thus far (…)

Big data finds the Medieval Warm Period – no denial here

by Jennifer Marohasy, August 22, 2017

Our results show up to 1°C of warming. The average divergence between the proxy temperature record and our ANN projection is just 0.09 degree Celsius. This suggests that even if there had been no industrial revolution and burning of fossil fuels, there would have still been warming through the twentieth century – to at least 1980, and of almost 1°C.

Chinese Academy of Sciences : see here and here,  also here

Most of the Recent Warming Could be Natural

by Jennifer Marohasy, August 21, 2017

AFTER deconstructing 2,000-year old proxy-temperature series back to their most basic components, and then rebuilding them using the latest big data techniques, John Abbot and I show what global temperatures might have done in the absence of an industrial revolution.  The results from this novel technique, just published in GeoResJ, accord with climate sensitivity estimates from experimental spectroscopy but are at odds with output from General Circulation Models.


Will 2017 Set Records? (Now Includes June and July Data)

by Werner Brozek, August 20, 2017 in WUWT

In order to determine if records are possible in 2017, one must know the previous records as well as the average to date and what is required for the rest of the year in order for a particular data set to set a new record.

For the five data sets I cover, records were set in 2016. For now, I am not concerned about the statistical significance of the records, nor the number of decimal places. I merely want to know if the record can be beaten this year. At the end of the year, I plan on reporting any records and how statistically significant they are.

An Inconvenient Deception: How Al Gore Distorts Climate Science and Energy Policy

by Roy W.  Spencer, Ph. D., August 19, 2017 in GlobalWarming

Al Gore has provided a target-rich environment of deceptions in his new movie.

After viewing Gore’s most recent movie, An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power, and after reading the book version of the movie, I was more than a little astounded. The new movie and book are chock-full of bad science, bad policy, and factual errors.

The Little Ice Age And Medieval Warming In South Africa

by Paul Homewood, August 19, 2017

The climate industry likes to pretend that the Little Ice Age was just a local event in Europe, but studies like this one give the lie to that.

Interestingly this Tyson study also includes graphs of historical temperature trends in other parts of the world, for comparison. They all clearly show the MWP and Little Ice Age, although the peaks and troughs don’t always match.

See also here

Study validates East Antarctic ice sheet to remain stable even if western ice sheet melts

by Indiana University, August 17, 2017 in ScienceDaily

“There are models that predict that the interior of the East Antarctic ice sheet wouldn’t change very much, even if the West Antarctic ice sheet was taken away,” Licht said. According to these models, even if the ice sheet’s perimeter retreats, its core remains stable.

See also here and here

What do we know about Arctic sea ice trends?

by Dr. Ronan Connolly & Dr. Michael Connolly, August 16, 2017 in WUWT

Satellite observations indicate that the average Arctic sea ice extent has generally decreased since the start of the satellite records in October 1978. Is this period long enough to assess whether the current sea level trend is unusual, and to what extent the decline is caused by humans?

This change in Arctic climate is often promoted as evidence that humans are causing drastic climate change. For instance, an April 29th 2017 article in the Economist (“Skating on thin ice”, pg 16) implied that the Arctic is melting unusually, dramatically and worryingly (…)


The Global Temperature Record Is A Farce

by Tony Heller, August 16, 2017 in DeplorableClimSciBlog

NASA says  97% of scientists agree that their temperature graphs are accurate, and NASA, NOAA, CRU and JMA all independently agree very precisely about global temperature going back to 1880.

This is quite remarkable, considering that NASA doesn’t agree with their own data, having doubled 1880-2000 warming over the past 15 years.

Record-shattering 2.7-million-year-old ice core reveals start of the ice ages

by Paul Voosen, August 15, 2017

Scientists announced today that a core drilled in Antarctica has yielded 2.7-million-year-old ice, an astonishing find 1.7 million years older than the previous record-holder


If the new result holds up, says Yige Zhang, a paleoclimatologist at Texas A&M University in College Station, the proxies will need to be recalibrated. “We have some work to do.”

35 New Papers Affirm Warmth, Elevated CO2 Are Good For The Earth And Its Inhabitants

by Kenneth Richard, August 14, 2017 in NoTricksZone

Future Global Warming Scenarios ‘Potentially Beneficial’, Cooling May Cause Ecological ‘Declines’ / Human Health Risks ‘Extremely Sensitive’ To Temperature, With Cold Temperatures More Dangerous/Mass Extinctions Caused By Cold Temperatures (Ice Ages), Not Global Warming/ …

An Inconvenient Split?

by Paul Matthews, August 13, 2017 in CimateScepticism

In many ways, the climate debate has hardly changed since I got interested in it about ten years ago. Public opinion wobbles up and down with hardly any real change. The same tired arguments and claims come round again: every climate conference is the last chance to save the planet; the Arctic ice is always about to vanish in one or two years, or ten years; climate scientists continue to be accused of selecting data sets to create hockeysticks and manipulating data; and teams of climate scientists keep producing reports saying almost exactly the same thing as the previous reports, which then get misrepresented and hyped by the media.

Statistical link between external climate forcings and modes of ocean variability

by Abdul Malik et al., July 31, 2017, Climate Dynamics, Springer

In this study we investigate statistical link between external climate forcings and modes of ocean variability on inter-annual (3-year) to centennial (100-year) timescales using de-trended semi-partial-cross-correlation analysis technique. To investigate this link we employ observations (AD 1854–1999), climate proxies (AD 1600–1999), and coupled Atmosphere-Ocean-Chemistry Climate Model simulations with SOCOL-MPIOM (AD 1600–1999). We find robust statistical evidence that Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO) has intrinsic positive correlation with solar activity in all datasets employed. The strength of the relationship between AMO and solar activity is modulated by volcanic eruptions and complex interaction among modes of ocean variability.

Uncovered: decades-old government report showing climate data was bad, unfit for purpose

Guest Opinion, Tim Ball, August 12, in WUWT

In 1999, the National Academy of Sciences, the research arm of the National Research Council, released a study expressing concern about the accuracy of the data used in the debate over climate change. They said there are,

“Deficiencies in the accuracy, quality and continuity of the records,” that “place serious limitations on the confidence that can be placed in the research results.”

The people who reached these conclusions and their affiliations at the time follows.

Exposing Staggering Ice Sheet Melt Deceptions

by Kenneth Richard, August 7, 2017 in NoTricksZone reposted Paul Homewood

In recent months, two new papers published in The Cryosphere have provided a condensed summary of the ice-melt and sea-level-rise consequences of global warming for the Arctic region.

1.  Between 1900 and 2010, the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) has melted so extensively and so rapidly that the GIS ice-melt contribution to global sea level rise has amounted to 1.5 centimeters for the entire 110-year period.   One-and-a-half centimeters.  That’s 0.59 of an inch!

2. It gets worse.  Between 1993 and 2010, the contribution to global sea level rise has been a disturbing 0.39 of a centimeter.  Almost 4/10ths of a centimeter.  That’s 0.15 of an inch!

Weather-related Natural Disasters: Should we be concerned about a reversion to the mean?

by Prof. Roger Pielke Jr, July 31, 2017, University of Colorado Boulder

The world is presently in an era of unusually low weather disasters. This holds for the weather phenomena that have historically caused the most damage: tropical cyclones, floods, tornadoes and drought. Given how weather events have become politicized in debates over climate change, some find this hard to believe. Fortunately, government and IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) analyses allow such claims to be adjudicated based on science, and not politics.  Here I briefly summarize recent relevant data.

US Climate Report Edits Out Highly Embarrassing Section

by Paul Homewood, August 10, 2017, in WUWT

I mentioned in my previous post that the latest draft climate report, published in June, had seemingly left out a rather embarrassing table from the Executive Summary, one that had previously been written into the Third Draft, published last December.

As the link to the Third Draft had disappeared from the NYT, I could not show it.

However, Michael Bastasch, writing over at WUWT, did have the link, so we can now compare the relevant sections.

See also here

Draft Climate Report Leaked To NYT

by Paul Homewood, August 9, 2017 i

The report was completed this year and is a special science section of the National Climate Assessment, which is congressionally mandated every four years. The National Academy of Sciences has signed off on the draft report, and the authors are awaiting permission from the Trump administration to release it.

NYT Admits Its Front Page Climate Change Article Was Wrong,  see here

 ‘Pre-determined science’ Morano reacts to NYT’s ‘leaked’ federal climate doom report: ‘Political report masquerading as science’, see here

The Effects of the Bray Climate and Solar Cycle

by Andy May, August 8, 2017 in WUWT

The Bray cycle is about 2450 years from beginning to end and the Bray Lows, which are the coldest portion of the cycle, are the most important events.

The world is currently within the Quaternary Ice Age and nearly as cold as it has ever been. The normal average temperature of the world is around 20°C, some 5°C warmer than today. To keep recent warming in perspective, it is important to understand that even if the worse predictions of the IPCC were to occur, we would only be returning to the average temperature of the last 560 million years

Phanerozoic Global Temperature from Scotese 2015,

link in the post (.pdf)