Archives de catégorie : climate-debate

climate-debate

NEW PAPER DOCUMENTS MAIN REASONS FOR INTERNATIONAL CONTROVERSY ABOUT THE IPCC’S SR1.5 REPORT

by  Press Release, GWPF, December 20, 2018

London, 20 December: One of Europe’s most eminent climate scientists has documented the main scientific reasons why the recent UN climate summit failed to welcome the IPCC’s report on global warming of 1.5°C.

In a paper published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation Professor Ray Bates of University College Dublin explains the main reasons for the significant controversy about the latest IPCC report within the international community.

The IPCC’s Special Report on a Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5) was released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in advance of the recent COP24 meeting in Katowice, Poland, but was not adopted by the meeting due to objections by a number of governments.

Professor Bates examines some key aspects of the SR1.5 report. He assesses if the IPCC report exhibits a level of scientific rigour commensurate with the scale of its extremely costly and highly disruptive recommendation that carbon emissions be reduced to zero by mid-century.

The paper concludes that such a level of scientific rigour is not present in the report. Specifically, SR1.5 is deficient in scientific rigour in the following respects:

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climate-debate

THE ROAD FROM PARIS: CHINA’S CLIMATE U-TURN

by Presse Release, GWPF,  December 12, 2018

For all its green talk, China is sticking to fossil fuels

London, 12 December – While leaders of western countries fret about their greenhouse gas emissions in Katowice, China is forging ahead with new projects and investments in coal and gas. According to a new paper from the Global Warming Foundation (GWPF), the Communist Party’s survival depends on delivering economic growth and cleaner air.

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climate-debate

Simplest climate model yet – a bathtub

by Charles the moderator, January 18, 2019 in WUWT

Climate change: How could artificial photosynthesis contribute to limiting global warming?

Scientists calculate areas needed for forestation and artificial photosynthesis.

After several years during which global emissions at least stagnated, they rose again somewhat in 2017 and 2018. Germany has also clearly missed its climate targets. In order to keep global warming below 2 degrees Celsius, only about 1100 gigatonnes of CO2 may be released into the atmosphere by 2050[1]. And In order to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees, only just under 400 gigatonnes of CO2 may be emitted worldwide. By 2050, emissions will have to fall to zero even. Currently, however, 42 gigatonnes of CO2 are added every year.

Almost all the various scenarios require “negative emissions”

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climate-debate

700,000 Square Kilometers Of Added Green Vegetation, Climate Change Shrinks Sahara Desert By Whopping 8%!

by P. Gosselin, January 16, 2019 in NoTricksZone

Recently, CO2 Science brought up a paper in Nature Communications.

Using satellite images, Venter et al. 2018 found an eight percent increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa over the last three decades, underscoring the global “greening trend”.

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According to Wikipedia, the Sahara covers a vast area of some 9.2 million square kilometers. Eight percent of that translates into more than 700,000 square kilometers. That’s an area that’s almost as big as Germany and France combined! This is profound.

In other words, it’s well over 10,000 Manhattans!

Recent study by Venter et al finds that the Sahara has shrunk by 8% over the past three decades. NASA image, public domain.

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climate-debate

Media Reports of +40% Adjustment in Ocean Warming Were Greatly Exaggerated

by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D., January 16, 2019

Summary:The recently reported upward adjustment in the 1971-2010 Ocean Heat Content (OHC) increase compared to the last official estimate from the IPCC is actually 11%, not 40%. The 40% increase turns out to be relative to the average of various OHC estimates the IPCC addressed in their 2013 report, most of which were rejected. Curiously, the new estimate is almost identical to the average of 33 CMIP climate models, yet the models themselves range over a factor of 8 in their rates of ocean warming. Also curious is the warmth-enhancing nature of temperature adjustments over the years from surface thermometers, radiosondes, satellites, and now ocean heat content, with virtually all data adjustments leading to more warming rather than less.

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See also here

better to know...?, climate-debate

Hump day hilarity – the progression of climate narrative names

by Anthony Watts, January 16, 2019 in WUWT

I had a predictable and laughable Twitter dialog today with the editor of the bought and paid for climate activist site known as “The Carbon Brief”. He was bent out of shape because I pointed out that while he thought the reason for the stepping down of Lord Lawson at The Global Warming Policy Foundation in the UK was due to the lack of traffic and interest in the organization, it [the lowered traffic] really is because of two reasons:

  1. The public is getting bored with it, possibly due to all the fear-mongering promoted by irresponsible journalists.

  2. There’s been a shift from the use of the term “global warming” to other terms, perhaps in a desperate bid to “keep it fresh”. …

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climate-debate

Regional Models: 3-10°C Warming In The Next 80 Years. Observations: No Warming In The Last 40-100 Years.

by K. Richard, January 14, 2019 in NoTricksZone

There are large regions of the globe where observations indicate there has been no warming (even cooling) during the last decades to century. Climate models rooted in the assumption that fossil fuel emissions drive dangerous warming dismiss these modeling failures and project temperature increases of 3° – 10°C by 2100 for these same regions anyway.

Image Source: Partridge et al., 2018

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climate-debate

Antarctic Losing Tiny Amounts Of Ice (Or Maybe It’s Gaining Ice, NASA Is Not Sure!)

by P. Homewood, January 15, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

Antarctica is shedding ice at a staggering rate.

Scientists have discovered global warming has caused the melting of the ice on the continent to increase sixfold since 1979.

This phenomenal rate of melting has seen global sea levels rise by more than half an inch – and experts predict it will get worse. 

Scientists have predicted a ‘multi-meter sea level rise from Antarctica in the coming centuries’ as a result of the vast loss of ice.

Researchers discovered that, between 1970 and 1990, the continent was shedding an average of 40 gigatons of ice mass annually.

This jumped to an average of 252 gigatons a year between 2009 and 2017.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-6590841/Antarctica-losing-SIX-TIMES-ice-year-1970s.html#newcomment

 

You may of course recall that it was only three years ago that the same NASA, who are behind this latest scare story, were telling us that the ice cap was actually growing in Antarctica. But more of that in a minute.

There are several aspects to this latest story that need closer examination.

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climate-debate

New GWPF Paper Shows Hurricanes Are Not Getting Worse

by P. Homewood, January 14, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2019/01/Homewood-Hurricanes.pdf

I am pleased to report that the GWPF have now published my latest paper on hurricane trends.

It demonstrates that, contrary to popular myth, hurricanes are not getting more frequent or more powerful.

The paper is based throughout on official data, scientific papers and IPCC reports.

Here is the Executive Summary:

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climate-debate

HEAVIES SNOWFALLS IN 100 YEARS BRING CHAOS TO ALPINE SKI RESORTS

by The Times, January 12, 2019 in GWPF

Thousands of British holidaymakers face travel chaos in Austria today after the country experienced the heaviest snowfalls in a century and was bracing for another round of storms.

Three metres of snow fell in the space of 48 hours in some parts of the country and more than a metre is forecast to fall today and tomorrow. Yesterday the army was drafted in to help with the clear-up and to deliver supplies to towns and villages that were cut off.

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According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”. “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is,” he said. —The Independent, 20 March 2000

climate-debate

Veteran Meteorologists Warn Of “Bitter Cold” …”Areas Under The Gun” As Models Project Cold Polar Blasts!

by P. Gosselin, January 12, 2019 in NoTricksZone

Yesterday we wrote about a study that told us the data do not support that weather blockings are occurring more often than they used to. Some alarmist media and scientists have claimed that the heavy snowfalls in the Alps are happening due to manmade global warming.

Swiss meteorologist: Such snowfalls “nothing unique” for Alps

Yesterday one of Europe’s most high profile meteorologists, Jörg Kachelmann, penned an opinion piece at t-online.de reminding the public that heavy snow events in the Alps, such as the one we are now experiencing, are in fact nothing unique and that it is not a catastrophe.

In the days ahead, many parts of the Alps are expecting up to another meter of new snow, yet, according to Kachelmann, this should not pose any problems to buildings and structures – if their construction indeed adhered to the applicable building codes.

“Nothing to do with climate change”

Kachelmann adds later in his t-online piece: “1. The snowfalls are nothing unique so far for the Alps. 2. They have nothing to do with climate change.”

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climate-debate

Does the IPCC say we have until 2030 to avoid catastrophic global warming?

by Patrick T. Brown, January 12, 2019 in WUWT

In late 2018 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released a report on the impacts associated with global warming of 1.5°C (2.7°F) above preindustrial levels (as of 2019 we are at about 1.0°C above pre-industrial levels) as well as the technical feasibility of limiting global warming to such a level. The media coverage of the report immediately produced a meme that continues to persist. The meme is some kind of variation of the following:

The IPCC concluded that we have until 2030 (or 12 years) to avoid catastrophic global warming

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However, these headlines are essentially purveying a myth. I think it is necessary to push back against this meme for two main reasons:

1) It is false.

2) I believe that spreading this messaging will ultimately undermine the credibility of the IPCC and climate science more generally.

Taking these two points in turn:

1) The IPCC did not conclude that society has until 2030 to avoid catastrophic global warming.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

The ‘Little Ice Age’ hundreds of years ago is STILL cooling the bottom of Pacific, researchers find

by Charles the moderator, January 9, 2019 in WUWT

  • The Little Ice Age brought colder-than-average temps around the 17th century

  • Researchers say temperatures in deep Pacific lag behind those at the surface

  • As a result, parts of the deep Pacific is now cooling from long ago Little Ice Age

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A Harvard study has found that parts of the deep Pacific may be getting cooler as the result of a climate phenomenon that occurred hundreds of years ago. The models suggest In the deep temperatures are dropping at a depth of around 2 kilometers (1.2 miles)
climate-debate

The credibility gap between predicted and observed global warming

by Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, January 10, 2019 in WUWT

The prolonged el Niño of 2016-2017, not followed by a la Niña, has put paid to the great Pause of 18 years 9 months in global warming that gave us all such entertainment while it lasted. However, as this annual review of global temperature change will show, the credibility gap between predicted and observed warming remains wide, even after some increasingly desperate and more or less openly prejudiced ever-upward revisions of recent temperatures and ever-downward depressions in the temperatures of the early 20th century in most datasets with the effect of increasing the apparent rate of global warming. For the Pause continues to exert its influence by keeping down the long-run rate of global warming.

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climate-debate

Greenland Is Way Cool

by Willis Eschenbach, January 8, 2019

As a result of a tweet by Steve McIntyre, I was made aware of an interesting dataset. This is a look by Vinther et al. at the last ~12,000 years of temperatures on the Greenland ice cap. The dataset is available here.

Figure 1 shows the full length of the data, along with the change in summer insolation at 75°N, the general location of the ice cores used to create the temperature dataset.

Figure 1. Temperature anomalies of the Greenland ice sheet (left scale, yellow/black line), and the summer insolation in watts per square metre at 75°N (right scale, blue/black line). The red horizontal dashed line shows the average ice sheet temperature 1960-1980.

I’ll only say a few things about each of the graphs in this post. Regarding Figure 1, the insolation swing shown above is about fifty watts per square metre. Over the period in question, the temperature dropped about two and a half degrees from the peak in about 5800 BCE. That would mean the change is on the order of 0.05°C for each watt per square metre change in insolation …

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climate-debate

Is the forecasted El Niño for this year fading away? It sure looks that way.

by Anthony Watts, January 8, 2019 in WUWT

In late 2018, there were some predictions that there would be a significant El Niño event in 2019. There were strong hints of an El Niño event in both SST data and forecasts. In an April 6th 2018 essay, Bob Tisdale suggested  “Looks like one may be forming right now.”

But if we look at the animation provided by NOAA’s Climate prediction center, it sure looks like it has been fading:

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climate-debate

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Higher Than 2006 Last Month

by P. Homewood, January 9, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

Just last March, the Guardian was trying to panic us about record lows in Arctic sea ice during last winter.

Back in the real world, DMI confirm that average Arctic sea ice extent in December was higher last month than in 2006. In reality, there has been very little change at all since 2005.

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http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/txt/IceVol.txt

 

climate-debate, energy and fields

U.S. Carbon Emissions Skyrocketed in 2018!

by David Middleton, January 8, 2009 in WUWT

Why did carbon emissions increase in 2018?

  • A booming economy.  GDP growth during the first 2 years of the Trump administration has been about 50% higher than that of Obama’s eight-year maladministration.

  • Our manufacturing sector is booming.

  • A cold winter.

  • A booming economy drove up trucking and air travel.

  • Electricity demand increased and most of the increasing was powered by natural gas because renewables couldn’t even keep up with no growth.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/economy-firing-cylinders/

better to know...?, climate-debate

Another Climate Propaganda Story Promoting the Normal as Abnormal

by Dr Tim Ball, January 8, 2019 in WUWT

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Other stories focus on a pattern or change in a pattern again with the idea that it is new or abnormal. Headlines like this one from 2012, “Why have there been more tornadoes than usual this year?” Often, they are suggestive such as this 2017 New York Times story. “The 2017 Hurricane Season Really Is More Intense Than Normal.” When you read the story, you find, as is usually the case, that the caveats at the end indicate it is not unusual. The problem is the headline already set the pattern in the public mind.

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climate-debate

Study reconstructing ocean warming finds ocean circulation changes may account for significant portion of sea level rise

by Anthony Watts, January 7, 2019 in WUWT

Study suggests that in the last 60 years up to half the observed warming and associated sea level rise in low- and mid- latitudes of the Atlantic Ocean is due to changes in ocean circulation.

Over the past century, increased greenhouse gas emissions have given rise to an excess of energy in the Earth system. More than 90% of this excess energy has been absorbed by the ocean, leading to increased ocean temperatures and associated sea level rise, while moderating surface warming.

The multi-disciplinary team of scientists have published estimates in PNAS, that global warming of the oceans of 436 x 1021 Joules has occurred from 1871 to present (roughly 1000 times annual worldwide human primary energy consumption) and that comparable warming happened over the periods 1920-1945 and 1990-2015.

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climate-debate

U.S. Media Bans Scientific Dissent – Claim Wildfires, Floods, Droughts, Hurricanes Are Human-Controlled

by K. Richard, January 7, 2019 in NoTricksZone

NBC News’ Chuck Todd recently asserted that we humans can control the climate and the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events (hurricanes, floods, droughts) and disasters (wildfires) with our CO2 emissions. He has declared the science is “settled” on this point and therefore no “denier” is allowed on his Meet the Press program. But Todd and the members of his panel have recited claims that are contravened by observational evidence and scientific publications.

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climate-debate

Forget El Nino, StormFest is about to Hit the West Coast

by Charles the moderator, January 6, 2019 in WUWT

Things often calm down after January 1 during El Nino years….but not this year…with the U.S. West Coast from central California to Washington State about to be pummeled by a series of storms.   Rain, snow, wind?  Plenty for everyone.

A view of the latest infrared satellite imagery shows an amazing line-up of one storm after another stretching way into the Pacific.  A traffic jam of storms.

 

Let’s examine our stormy future, using a series of sea level pressure forecasts from the UW WRF weather forecast models (solid lines are sea level pressure, shading in lower atmosphere temperature).

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Kerala Floods “Likely Due To Climate Variability, Not AGW”–New Study

by P. Homewood, January 5, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

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Since there is no increase in mean and extreme precipitation in Kerala over the last six decades, the extreme event during August 2018 is likely to be driven by anomalous atmospheric conditions due to climate variability rather anthropogenic climate warming. The severity of the Kerala flood of 2018 and the damage caused might be affected by several factors including land use/ land cover change, antecedent hydrologic conditions, reservoir storage and operations, encroachment of flood plains, and other natural factors. The impacts of key drivers (anthropogenic and natural) on flood severity need to be established to improve our understanding of floods and associated damage.

http://www.geosocindia.org/index.php/jgsi/article/view/137443

climate-debate

Storage wars

by Charles the moderator, January 5, 2019 in WUWT

UC Santa Barbara researcher conducts first-ever global-scale evaluation of the role of soil minerals in carbon storage

University of California – Santa Barbara

One answer to our greenhouse gas challenges may be right under our feet: Soil scientists Oliver Chadwick of UC Santa Barbara and Marc Kramer of Washington State University have found that minerals in soil can hold on to a significant amount of carbon pulled from the atmosphere. It’s a mechanism that could potentially be exploited as the world tries to shift its carbon economy.

“We’ve known for quite a long time that the carbon stored on minerals is the carbon that sticks around for a long time,” said Chadwick, co-author of the paper, “Climate-driven thresholds in reactive mineral retention of soil carbon at the global scale,” published in the journal Nature Climate Change. How much carbon the soil can take and how much it can keep, he said, are dependent on factors including temperature and moisture.

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