by Laterite, June 20, 2015
The climate sensitivity due to CO2 is expressed as the temperature change in °C associated with a doubling of the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) refers to the equilibrium change in global mean near-surface air temperature that would result from a sustained doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The transient climate response (TCR) is defined as the average temperature response over a twenty-year period centered at CO2 doubling in a transient simulation with CO2 increasing at 1% per year. The transient response is lower than the equilibrium sensitivity, due to the “inertia” of ocean heat uptake.
Also, this post
“[T]here is growing evidence of much smaller climate sensitivity to CO2; and even if these drastic emissions reductions occurred, we see little impact on the climate in the 21st century (even if you believe the climate models).”
by Don Healy, March24, 2017
During the past 100,000 years, human societies have witnessed the vast change in climate that has occurred as we have transitioned from a glacial period that ended about 20,000 years ago, into the current interglacial period.
by Prof. Dr. Ole Humlum, March 22, 2017
A report on the State of the Climate in 2016 which is based exclusively on observations rather than climate models is published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF).
Contents (37 pages)
1. General overview 2016/2. Spatial pattern of global surface air temperatures in 2016/3. Global monthly lower troposphere air temperatures since 1979/4. Global mean annual lower troposphere air temperatures since 1979 ……………………/17. Ocean temperature net change 2004-2016 in two north-south sectors/18. Pacific Decadal Oscillation…………../23. Global, Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice extent/24. Northern hemisphere snow-cover extent and /25 Links to data sources.
by Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, March 21, 2017
Dead zones affect dozens of coral reefs around the world and threaten hundreds more according to a new study. Watching a massive coral reef die-off on the Caribbean coast of Panama, they suspected it was caused by a dead zone — a low-oxygen area that snuffs out marine life — rather than by ocean warming or acidification.
Journal Reference: Andrew H. Altieri, Seamus B. Harrison, Janina Seemann, Rachel Collin, Robert J. Diaz, Nancy Knowlton. Tropical dead zones and mass mortalities on coral reefs. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2017; 201621517 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1621517114
by VENCORE WEATHER, March 20, 2017
Third weakest solar cycle since 1755
A recent publication has analyzed the current solar cycle and has found that when sunspot anomalies are compared to the mean for the number of months after cycle start, there have been only two weaker cycles since observations began in 1755. Solar cycle 24 began in 2008 after a historically long and deep solar minimum which puts us more than eight years into the current cycle.
by David Archibald, March 8, 2010
The greenhouse gasses keep the Earth 30° C warmer than it would otherwise be without them in the atmosphere, so instead of the average surface temperature being -15° C, it is 15° C. Carbon dioxide contributes 10% of the effect so that is 3° C. The pre-industrial level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 280 ppm. So roughly, if the heating effect was a linear relationship, each 100 ppm contributes 1° C. With the atmospheric concentration rising by 2 ppm annually, it would go up by 100 ppm every 50 years and we would all fry as per the IPCC predictions.
But the relationship isn’t linear, it is logarithmic. In 2006, Willis Eschenbach posted this graph on Climate Audit showing the logarithmic heating effect of carbon dioxide relative to atmospheric concentration
by Kenneth Richard, March 20, 2017
According to an estimate of global sea surface temperature (SST) changes during the last 2,000 years (“Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era“), the addition of the last 2 centuries (1800 to 2000 C.E.) of relatively modest SST warming only changes the overall per-millennium global cooling trend (~0.4°C) by one tenth of one degree. In other words, using a long-term perspective, the Holocene cooling trend has continued largely uninterrupted during the last two centuries.
Analysis of tree rings reveals highly abnormal solar activity in the mid-Holocene
by Fusa Miyake et al., January 31, 2017
An international team led by researchers at Nagoya University, along with US and Swiss colleagues, has identified a new type of solar event and dated it to the year 5480 BC.
by Hermann Harde, Global and Planetary Change, 24 February 2017
An alternative carbon cycle is presented in agreement with the carbon 14 decay.
The CO2 uptake rate scales proportional to the CO2 concentration.
Temperature dependent natural emission and absorption rates are considered.
The average residence time of CO2 in the atmosphere is found to be 4 years.
Paleoclimatic CO2 variations and the actual CO2 growth rate are well-reproduced.
The anthropogenic fraction of CO2 in the atmosphere is only 4.3%.
Human emissions only contribute 15% to the CO2 increase over the Industrial Era.
Also this link
by Polar Bear Science, February 15, 2017
The 2016 Scientific Working Group report on Baffin Bay and Kane Basin polar bears was released online without fanfare last week, confirming what local Inuit have been saying for years: contrary to the assertions of Polar Bear Specialist Group scientists, Baffin Bay and Kane Basin subpopulations have not been declining but are stable.
by Judith Curry, Feb 2017
Professor Judith A. Curry is the author of over 180 scienti c papers on weather and climate and is a recipient of the Henry G. Houghton Research Award from the Amer- ican Meteorological Society in 1992. She recently retired from the Georgia Institute of Technology, where she held the positions of Professor and Chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. She is currently President of Climate Forecast Appli- cations Network.
par D. Swingedouw et al., CNRS, 15 février 2017
Dans le cadre du projet européen EMBRACE, une équipe d’océanographes a réexaminé ces 40 projections climatiques en se focalisant sur un point névralgique au nord-ouest de l’Atlantique Nord : la mer du Labrador. Cette mer est le siège d’un phénomène de convection, qui nourrit à plus grande échelle la circulation océanique de retournement. Ses eaux de surface se refroidissent fortement en hiver, deviennent plus denses que les eaux de profondeur et plongent vers le fond. La chaleur des eaux profondes est transférée vers la surface et empêche la formation de banquise
Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), February 2017
Greenland has gained 500 Gt of ice this winter (2016-2017)
Here you can follow the daily surface mass balance on the Greenland Ice Sheet. The snow and ice model from one of DMI’s climate models is driven every six hours with snowfall, sunlight and other parameters from a research weather model for Greenland, Hirlam-Newsnow.
John Turner et al., Nature, July 2016
Here we use a stacked temperature record to show an absence of regional warming since the late 1990s. The annual mean temperature has decreased at a statistically significant rate, with the most rapid cooling during the Austral summer. Temperatures have decreased as a consequence of a greater frequency of cold, east-to-southeasterly winds, resulting from more cyclonic conditions in the northern Weddell Sea associated with a strengthening mid-latitude jet.
by Seth Borenstein, January 7, 2017
Scambos, who is about to travel to Antarctica for research, and other scientists said they don’t see other key signs that this growing crack would result in a catastrophic collapse of the entire shelf. A chunk of ice will break off, “But it’s not going to lead to a runaway disintegration,” he said Friday.
Benoît Rittaud, 9 février 2017, Université Paris-13
La nouvelle affaire sur le front du climat prend de l’ampleur. Puisqu’il ne faut certainement pas compter sur un compte-rendu loyal par les grands médias français, voici ce qui, je crois, peut en être dit quatre jours après son déclenchement. L’affaire étant susceptible d’avoir des retentissements importants, j’ai choisi de faire un point complet, qui reprend tout depuis le début.
Mark Imisides, December 07, 2009
Carbon dioxide, we are told, traps heat that has been irradiated by the oceans, and this warms the oceans and melts the polar ice caps. While this seems a plausible proposition at first glance, when one actually examines it closely a major flaw emerges.
R. Garibaldi et al., 2016
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 148, 48-52
As for the potential cause behind the downward trend, Rojo-Garibaldi et al. examined the possibility of a solar influence, performing a series of additional statistical analyses (spectral, wavelet and coherence wavelet transform) on the hurricane database, as well as a sunspot database obtained from the Solar Influences Data Analysis Center of the Solar Physics Department of the Royal Observatory of Belgium. Therein, their exploratory analyses revealed that “this decline is related to an increase in sunspot activity.”
J.E. Kamis, geologist, January 27, 2017
Origine géothermique de El Nino : quelques évidences?
… Based on this information, it is most likely these eruptive El Niño heat pulses are the result of flow from the various individual components of a giant Solomon Island Area seafloor circulating system. Individual geological components include fractured rock layers, hydrothermal vents, seafloor volcanoes, and open faults. The circulating system is activated by upward movement of deep magma chambers located beneath the Solomon Island area. This movement triggers a high-magnitude earthquake swarm, which in turn activates the seafloor circulating system….
par le Prof. Istvan Marko (UCL), 24 janvier 2017
Idéalement, un journaliste recevant une information vérifie le bien-fondé de sa source, se renseigne abondamment sur les diverses facettes du problème, consulte plusieurs spécialistes afin d’obtenir diverses opinions et, finalement, présente l’information au public sans parti-pris dans le plus pur respect de l’intégrité journalistique. Aujourd’hui, hélas, les informations sont souvent partisanes et reflètent l’idéologie dominante de certains médias et de leurs employés. L’information devient ainsi propagande.
See also : New York Times ‘Our Readers Are Too Dumb To Understand Global Warming Numbers’
The University of Alabama in Hunstville
Depuis les années 70 des satellites mesurent la température de notre planète sur toute sa surface. Les valeurs reportées par le ‘Earth System Science Center’ sont considérées comme les seules scientifiquement valables.
The Alabama State Climatologist : provides climate data and research for the state and for the world