Archives par mot-clé : Temperature

climate-debate

Arctic Ocean changes driven by sub-Arctic seas

by University of Alaska Fairbank, July 12, 2020 in WUWT

New research explores how lower-latitude oceans drive complex changes in the Arctic Ocean, pushing the region into a new reality distinct from the 20th-century norm.

The University of Alaska Fairbanks and Finnish Meteorological Institute led the international effort, which included researchers from six countries. The first of several related papers was published this month in Frontiers in Marine Science.

Climate change is most pronounced in the Arctic. The Arctic Ocean, which covers less than 3% of the Earth’s surface, appears to be quite sensitive to abnormal conditions in lower-latitude oceans.

“With this in mind, the goal of our research was to illustrate the part of Arctic climate change driven by anomalous [different from the norm] influxes of oceanic water from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, a process which we refer to as borealization,” said lead author Igor Polyakov, an oceanographer at UAF’s International Arctic Research Center and FMI.

Although the Arctic is often viewed as a single system that is impacted by climate change uniformly, the research stressed that the Arctic’s Amerasian Basin (influenced by Pacific waters) and its Eurasian Basin (influenced by Atlantic waters) tend to differ in their responses to climate change.

Since the first temperature and salinity measurements taken in the late 1800s, scientists have known that cold and relatively fresh water, which is lighter than salty water, floats at the surface of the Arctic Ocean. This fresh layer blocks the warmth of the deeper water from melting sea ice.

IMAGE: A MAP OF THE ARCTIC OCEAN SHOWS THE LOCATION OF THE AMERASIAN AND EURASIAN BASINS. ARROWS SHOW THE PATH OF WARM, FRESH PACIFIC WATER AND WARM, SALTY ATLANTIC WATER INTO… view more CREDIT: GRAPHIC ADAPTED FROM POLYAKOV ET AL. 2020, FRONTIERS IN MARINE SCIENCE PAPER.

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climate-debate

Flawed Models: New Studies Find Plants Take Up “More Than Twice As Much” CO2 Than Expected

by Fritz Vahrenholt, July 7, 2020 in NoTricksZone

First, the global mean temperature of satellite based measurements was surprisingly much higher in May 2020 than in April. In contrast, the global temperatures of the series of measurements on land and sea decreased. The difference can be explained by the fact that under warm El-Nino conditions the satellite measurements lag about 2-3 months behind the earth-based measurements.

From November 2019 to March 2020 a moderate El-Nino was observed, which has now been replaced by neutral conditions in the Pacific. Therefore, it is to be expected that also the satellite based measurements, which we use at this point, will show a decrease in temperatures within 2-3 months.

The average temperature increase since 1981 remained unchanged at 0.14 degrees Celsius per decade. The sunspot number of 0.2 corresponded to the expectations of the solar minimum.

The earth is greening

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climate-debate

DESPITE THE LIES, THE SPIN, AND THE PROPAGANDA, ANTARCTIC SEA ICE IS GROWING — BOTH EXTENT AND CONCENTRATION GREATER NOW THAN IN 1980

by Cap Allon, July 6, 2020 in Electroverse

The UN and their scraggly little offshoot, the IPCC, are at it again — obfuscating data in order to push their fraudulent catastrophic global warming agenda.

According to the IPCC, and picked up the usual AGW propaganda rags such as the Guardian: “the South pole is warming three times faster than rest of the world.”

The Guardian articledated June 30, 2020 continues in predictably befogging fashion: “Dramatic change in Antarctica’s interior in past three decades a result of effects from tropical variability working together with increasing greenhouse gases.”

But, 1) the MSM have a habit of claiming everywhere is warming faster than everywhere else:

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And 2), the actual data reveals quite the opposite re Antarctica.

As @Harry_Hardrada recently pointed out on Twitter, there was a larger extent and concentration of Antarctic Sea Ice in June 2020 than back in June 1980:

Robert Felix over at iceagenow.com dives into the data, adding that sea ice extent today stands at 700,000 sq km (270,272 sq miles) greater than in 1980.

And in case you’re having a hard time reading the numbers, Felix breaks them down for you:

Sea ice extent in June 2020 = 13.2 million sq km
Sea ice extent in June 1980 = 12.5 million sq km

Sea ice concentration in June 2020 = 10.6 million sq km
Sea ice concentration in June 1980 = 9.6 million sq km

Fact-checked!

That’s enough extra ice to entirely cover Maryland, Delaware, West Virginia, South Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Ohio and all six New England states. Oh, and throw in Washington, D.C. for good measure. (Which might be a good idea.)

 See also THE ARCTIC IS ON FIRE, AND WE SHOULD ALL BE TERRIFIED” — FACT CHECK: IT’S CURRENTLY SNOWING IN VERKHOYANSK

biology+acidification, climate-debate

Extensive hake (fish) skeletal remains in ocean waters too cold for this species to occupy today suggest past ocean temperatures were several degrees warmer.

by Wheeland & Morgan, July 2020 in NoTricksZone

Fish habitats are limited by specific temperature boundaries. In a new study, for example,  Wheeland  and Morgan (2020) found there was a pronounced ocean warming from the 1980s to late 1990s off the coasts of Greenland. This temperature shift changed the distribution of halibut habitat. Since then, however, there has been no net warming in the study region (through 2016).

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climate-debate

CLAIM: 100 degrees in Siberia? 5 ways the extreme Arctic heat wave follows a disturbing pattern

by C. Rotter, June 28, 2020 in WUWT

This essay from director of NSIDC, Mark Serreze, is provided for reference. You may remember Serreze who once said “the Arctic is screaming” while botching and then backpedaling on claims of “ice free summers” on the near horizon for the Arctic that never happened. Give it all the consideration it is due. For some perspective, see my article on a previous 100 degree event above the Arctic circle over 100 years ago. By the way, with 24 hours daylight above the Arctic circle, and near 24 hour daylight in Siberia this time of year, (the first day of summer aka  the summer solstice) is it any surprise it would get warm?

This Arctic heat wave has been unusually long-lived. The darkest reds on this map of the Arctic are areas that were more than 14 degrees Fahrenheit warmer in the spring of 2020 compared to the recent 15-year average. Joshua Stevens/NASA Earth Observatory
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unclassified

Siberian Heatwave–Climate Or Weather?

by P. Homewood, June 27, 2020 in NotaLotofPeoppleKnowThat

The Conversation has now got involved in the Arctic heatwave scare, with this article by Jonathan Bamber, Professor of Physical Geography, University of Bristol :

On the eve of the summer solstice, something very worrying happened in the Arctic Circle. For the first time in recorded history, temperatures reached 38°C (101°F) in a remote Siberian town – 18°C warmer than the maximum daily average for June in this part of the world, and the all-time temperature record for the region.

New records are being set every year, and not just for maximum temperatures, but for melting ice and wildfires too. That’s because air temperatures across the Arctic have been increasing at a rate that is about twice the global average.

All that heat has consequences. Siberia’s recent heatwave, and high summer temperatures in previous years, have been accelerating the melting of Arctic permafrost. This is the permanently frozen ground which has a thin surface layer that melts and refreezes each year. As temperatures rise, the surface layer gets deeper and structures embedded in it start to fail as the ground beneath them expands and contracts. This is what is partly to blame for the catastrophic oil spill that occurred in Siberia in June 2020, when a fuel reservoir collapsed and released more than 21,000 tonnes of fuel – the largest ever spill in the Arctic.

So what is wrong with the Arctic, and why does climate change here seem so much more severe compared to the rest of the world?

https://theconversation.com/siberia-heatwave-why-the-arctic-is-warming-so-much-faster-than-the-rest-of-the-world-141455

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unclassified

Scientists Panic, Because Arctic Is 0.4F Warmer Than In 1915!

by P. Homewood, June 21, 2020 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

The Arctic is thought to have recorded its hottest ever temperature of 100.4F (38C) in Siberia, an astonishing 32F (18C) above the normal level for this time of year.

The mercury shot up to the unprecedented level in Verkhoyansk, 3,000 miles east of Moscow, as the region endures a summer heatwave.

Scientists had predicted the Arctic wouldn’t reach these levels until 2100, meaning it is warming 80 years faster than previously thought.

If the record is confirmed it will represent a new high. The current record for hottest temperature in the Arctic is held by Prospect Creek, Alaska, which recorded 100F (38C) in 1915.

Weatherman for CBS, Jeff Beradelli, said on Twitter yesterday: ‘Likely the hottest temperature ever recorded in the Arctic happened today.

‘What’s happening in Siberia this year is nothing short of remarkable. For perspective, Miami has only reached 100F (38C) once on record.’

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8444319/Arctic-records-hottest-temperature-mercury-hits-100F-town-Verkhoyansk-Siberia.html?login#readerCommentsCommand-message-field

 

Even the babies who write for the Mail could surely spot the fly in the ointment – that this new record is only 0.4F higher than the previous one set in 1915! Hardly the apocalypse they are trying to present.

As for Verkhoyansk itself, temperatures there reached 37.3C (99.1F) in 1988 during a succession of 30C+ days, so again there is nothing remarkable about the latest weather at all :

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climate-debate

What Happened To Greenland’s Tipping Point?

by P. Homewood, June 22, 2020 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

Ten years ago, the Guardian warned us that Greenland would have passed a tipping point by now, with the whole ice sheet due to disappear by the end of the century:

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How did that work out then?

The article was written in 2010, which was the warmest on record. Since then, however, Greenland’s temperatures have returned to normal, and are no higher than they were in the 1930s.

Far from being the start of a new trend, 2010 was simply an outlier:

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climate-debate

British Columbia Breaks Cold And Snow Records

by Cap Allon, June 15, 2020 in ClimateChangeDispatch

Record cold and late-spring snow helped drive-home the Grand Solar Minimum message across the BC Interior over the weekend.

According to KelownaNow Meteorologist Wesla English, the Interior –one of the three main regions of the Canadian province of British Columbia– broke a slew of cold records on Saturday.

Kelowna, Kamloops, Clearwater, Penticton, Salmon Arm, and Vernon were among the areas to set new all-time record low-max temperatures for June 13.

“A cool upper low over Southern BC produced chilly temperatures on Saturday, breaking record low daytime highs in several areas,” wrote English.

Below is a breakdown of the records (data courtesy of Environment and Climate Change Canada, and originally reported by kelownanow.com):

  • Kelowna set a new daily record min-high of 12.8C on Saturday, a reading comfortably topping the previous record of 13.3C set in 1981.
  • Kamloops saw its all-time record low smashed, from 1923’s 15C to this weekend’s 13.4C.
  • But it was Salmon Arm that actually saw the biggest change — Saturday’s low-max of 12.4Ccrushed the old record of 14.4C from 1971.
  • Clearwater’s12.8C busted the 13.3C from 1966.
  • While the 13.9C set at Penticton pipped the previous record — 1981’s 14C.

In addition to the cold, this weekend delivered rare late-spring snow to BC, adding to Ontario’s record June snowfall last weekend that brought power outages to parts of the province.

Wet snow accumulated near the summit of the Okanagan Connector between Merritt and Kelowna on Sunday,

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See also BOTH KELOWNA AND SUMMERLAND BUST 108-YEAR-OLD COLD RECORDS

climate-debate

DWD Reverses: Admits Data From Germany’s Infamous Ultra-Hot Lingen Weather Station Need To Be Rechecked

by P. Gosselin, June10, 2020 in NoTricksZone

Recently I wrote here how Germany’s now infamous record-setting weather station in Lingen was producing readings that were 2-3°C hotter than surrounding stations, yet the German DWD weather service refused to acknowledge the station was likely producing bad data. Today they admit the station has problems and that they will be moving it to a better location.

Last year’s all-time record high is now in question.

Lingen’s heated readings

Last summer the Lingen station, located in northwest Germany near the Dutch border, smashed the country’s all-time record high when the ‘mercury’ rose to a scorching 42.6°C during a late July heat wave. The previous all-time high for Germany was a comparatively cool 40.3°C.

 

Lingen’s readings of late July 2019 compared to other stations in the surrounding region (July 23 – July 27).

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climate-debate

BBC’s Fake Claim About “Hottest May”

by P. Homewood, June 5, 2020 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

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I make no comment about the global numbers, but would simply point out that none of the official agencies have released their data for May. The BBC claim comes from Copernicus, the EU agency, not regarded as a reliable source.

However the BBC claim about the UK is hopelessly wide of the mark. According to the Met Office, last month was only the 15th warmest May since 1884, and was not even as warm as 1893 and 1911!

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-temperature-rainfall-and-sunshine-time-series

Such sloppy reporting is only too common at the BBC, and not just where climate change is concerned. It only takes a minute to find the Met Office data, and I find it hard to understand why the programme editors did not think it worthwhile checking such an outlandish claim first.

Needless to say, I have filed a complaint, to add to the list of BBC climate lies!!

 

better to know...?, climate-debate

Sunny May–But Only The 48th Warmest

by P. Homewood, June 3, 2020 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

While we’re on with Harrabin’s hysterics about May’s sunny weather being due to climate change, it is appropriate to point out to him that last month was far from being the hottest on record in England:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

 

In fact there have been 47 hotter Mays since 1659. The hottest was 1833, and the five hottest were all pre 1850.

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See also:  UAH Global Temperature Update for May 2020: +0.54 deg. C

climate-debate

WASHINGTON, D.C. JUST SUFFERED ITS COLDEST MAY SINCE 2005

by Cap Allon, June 2, 2020 in Electroverse

Like April, May was cooler than average across the District,” admits filthy warm-mongers the washingtonpost.com in a recent article. The month officially logged an average temperature of just 63.8F, which is 2.2F below the 30-year average, and made for Washington’s coldest May in 15 years.

The average temperature more closely matched a typical May in New York City, points out the Southeast Regional Climate Center. And with NYC located some 200 miles north of Washington, May 2020 serves as a great illustration of how the GSM is driving the COLD LINE south.

The past two months also marked the first time since 2003 that both April and May were colder than average across the District.

In addition, May 9’s daily high of 52F was the lowest-high during the month of May since May 12, 2008 (solar minimum of cycle 23), and the chill even brought a few snow flurries to Washington’s far north and west suburbs. That 52F on May 9 also matched the record lowest-high for the date which was set way back in 1877 (solar minimum of cycle 11).

Many more all-time cold-records fell across the District that day; including Dulles smashing its record for min-high from 1977 (solar minimum of cycle 20), and Baltimore toppling both its all-time min-low from 1966 (solar minimum of cycle 19) as well as its min-high set back in 1977 (solar min of cycle 20)and 1947 (solar min of cycle 17).

better to know...?, climate-debate

Germany’s DWD National Weather Service Denies Station Siting Problem: “Dubious” All-Time Record Temperature Allowed To Stand

by P. Gosselin, May 26, 2020 in NoTricksZone

Leading German daily Bild here reports on the controversy, which still continues to swirl, over Germany’s all-time record high temperature recorded last year in North Germany near the Dutch border.

Independent meteorologists say the readings needs to be thrown out

Last year on July 25th, the Lingen thermometer reached a whopping 42.6°C, far eclipsing the old German all-time record of 40.3°C. But that recording quickly came under fire by independent weather experts who say the station data were  corrupted by siting issues. The Lingen station is located in a depression in the earth, near a parking lot, and shielded by trees from the wind, thus creating the ideal conditions for trapping heat.

Comparison to nearby stations shows huge anomaly

Last year NTZ reported on the controversial record here noting that surrounding stations did not even come close to record reading in Lingen. What follows is a comparison of the Lingen’s readings to those of 6 nearby stations over the five day period, July 23 – July 27:

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unclassified

Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies

by Bulgin et al., May 14, 2020 in Nature OPEN ACCESS

Abstract

Quantifying global trends and variability in sea surface temperature (SST) is of fundamental importance to understanding changes in the Earth’s climate. One approach to observing SST is via remote sensing. Here we use a 37-year gap-filled, daily-mean analysis of satellite SSTs to quantify SST trends, variability and persistence between 1981–2018. The global mean warming trend is 0.09 K per decade globally, with 95% of local trends being between −0.1 K and + 0.35 K. Excluding perennial sea-ice regions, the mean warming trend is 0.11 K per decade. After removing the long-term trend we calculate the SST power spectra over different time periods. The maximum variance in the SST power spectra in the equatorial Pacific is 1.9 K2 on 1–5 year timescales, dominated by ENSO processes. In western boundary currents characterised by an intense mesoscale activity, SST power on sub-annual timescales dominates, with a maximum variance of 4.9 K2. Persistence timescales tend to be shorter in the summer hemisphere due to the shallower mixed layer. The median short-term persistence length is 11–14 days, found over 71–79% of the global ocean area, with seasonal variations. The mean global correlation between monthly SST anomalies with a three-month time-lag is 0.35, with statistically significant correlations over 54.0% of the global oceans, and notably in the northern and equatorial Pacific, and the sub-polar gyre south of Greenland. At six months, the mean global SST anomaly correlation falls to 0.18. The satellite data record enables the detailed characterisation of temporal changes in SST over almost four decades.

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climate-debate

NOAA Satellite records second largest 2-month temperature drop in history

by Anthony Watts, May 1, 2020 in WUWT

UPDATE: Changed emphasis from Northern Hemisphere extratropics to entire Northern Hemisphere (h/t John Christy)

In April, 2020, the Northern Hemisphere experienced its 2nd largest 2-month drop in temperature in the 497-month satellite record.

The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for April, 2020 was +0.38 deg. C, down from the March, 2020 value of +0.48 deg. C.

The Northern Hemisphere temperature anomaly fell from +0.96 deg. C to 0.43 deg. C from February to April, a 0.53 deg. C drop which is the 2nd largest 2-month drop in the 497-month satellite record. The largest 2-month drop was -0.69 deg. C from December 1987 to February 1988.

The linear warming trend since January, 1979 has now increased to +0.14 C/decade (but remains statistically unchanged at +0.12 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Global Mean Temperature Flattens the Past

by Andy May, May3, 2020 in WUWT

Introduction

There have been recent discussions about ‘flattening the curve’ and some curves are easier to flatten than others. The Pages 2K Consortium calculates global mean temperature in a manner that flattens the long-term trend and makes present day temperatures appear warmer relative to past temperatures. Across the globe, temperature reconstructions show cooling millennial temperature trends with one exception, the Pages 2K global mean.

Millennial Temperature Trends Show Global Cooling

Global mean surface temperature anomalies were recently calculated by the Pages 2K Consortium led by Nuekom, 2019. Their statistical means are a conglomeration of seven different averaging methods for 7000 proxy records over the past 2000 years. The median across all global mean methods is plotted as a dashed line in Figure 1 and compared to Pages 2K’s published regional reconstructions. All means demonstrate similar trends as the median and will be simply be referred to as the global mean(s).

Regional temperature reconstructions are chosen that utilize similar proxy datasets used in the global mean calculation. The Arctic reconstruction by McKay incorporates a balance of proxy records consisting of ice cores, tree rings, lake and marine sediments north of 60 deg N. The Northern Hemisphere (NH) European reconstruction by Luterbacher is tree ring proxy based. And Stenni’s Antarctic reconstruction uses predominantly ice core isotopes.

The Pages 2K global mean appears to be reasonable compared to regional reconstructions from Present through the Little Ice Age (LIA) until about 1250 AD. Although it is difficult to see how the mean compares to regional reconstructions during the Present when using a 1961-1990 baseline as all reconstructions converge creating the “hockey stick” effect. Pre-1250 AD, the global mean appears to parallel NH Europe temperatures largely ignoring the Antarctic.

 

Figure 1: Top graph are surface temperature reconstructions with a 50-year loess filter plotted with Pages 2K global mean of the 7000-member ensemble across all methods. Bottom graph shows linear trends over the past 2000 years.

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better to know...?, climate-debate

GLOBAL TEMPERATURES SUFFER SECOND LARGEST TWO MONTH DROP IN RECORDED HISTORY

by Cap Allon, May 6, 2020 in Electroverse

The Temperature of the Global Lower Atmosphere plunged 0.38C through March and April, halving its February above baseline high of 0.76C to 0.38C — the second-largest two-month drop in the UAH temperature dataset.

The largest two month drop remains the 0.69C observed back in 1987. And note how the global average temperature back in 1987 –before both the drop AND the inception of the global warming scare— is EXACTLY the same as it is now:

 

A continuation of this sharp downward plunge (seen in March and April, 2020) is highly probable over the coming months (with the odd bump on the way), and we can now consider a reading below baseline by the end of the year “likely”.

For a more in-depth look at the data check out this video from the Oppenheimer Ranch Project:

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better to know...?, climate-debate

Rural Northern US Stations Showed No Warming – Before NASA Rewrote The Data

by P. Gosselin, May 03, 2020 in NoTricksZone

The northern hemisphere surface temperature was expected to drop substantiallyaccording to NCEP, but this of course will not keep global warming alarmists from sounding the warming alarms.

But a look at the unadjusted data from some rural US stations tells us that there has been no warming.

Today we look at temperature data from NASA of some stations along the northern US with a Brightness Index (BI) of 0, meaning rural locations with no urban heat island effects. We want to see the trend over the past 100 or so years.

Plotted are the USHCN Version 4 versus Version 4 adjusted.

The first plots are the data from Lincoln, Nebraska going back to 1901:

Modest cooling changed to warming. Data: NASA. 

Note how a modest cooling trend was changed to a warming trend. Very ealy temperatures were cooled by 2°C!

Next we move to the Livingston, Montana station, where here as well a modest cooling trend was transformed into warming by massively adjusting past temperatures downward also by more than 2°C:

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climate-debate

Extra warm U.S. winter had nature’s thumbprint on it–Joe Bastardi

by P. Homewood, April 3; 2020 in NotaLotofPeoppleKnowThat

Joe Bastardi explains why this winter has been so mild in the US, but also across N Europe, at CFACT.

Two points:

1) I will make the case for why such winters like this happen

2) I will point out that nowhere in this article did the massive natural physical drivers that far outweigh the effect of CO2, which is only .041% of the atmosphere. Pointedly, of which man is only responsible for  25% and the US only 15% of that total.

I am not going to waste time attacking here, except to say this kind of one-sided journalism and the fact that nowhere did anyone show what I am about to reveal to you, should raise questions of any objective person.

Basically the rules of the game are, if its warm like this winter, its climate change, if it is cold, its climate change. It is typical of everyone gets a trophy in that any answer even if opposite, means you get credit.

I won’t copy the whole article as it is a bit technical, but it can be seen here. However these are the main points Joe raises, starting with the role of El Nino and water vapour:

Water vapor is by far the most important greenhouse gas when it comes to the planetary weather and climate. Meteorologist look at “saturation mixing ratios” which show a correlation of water vapor to temperature. Basically the colder and drier the air mass, the more the introduction of water vapor will lead higher temperatures, there is no place like the arctic to prove this is the case. The cyclically warmed oceans have put more water vapor (and CO2) into the air. When Super El Niño’s go off, the immense amounts dispersed lead to a step up of the temperature. The colder regions leading the way as will be opined on below.

better to know...?, climate-debate

The UAH Global Temperature Dataset at 30 Years: A Look Back at the Early Days

by Dr. Roy Spencer, March 31, 2020 in GlobalWarming

Today (Monday, March 30) is the 30th anniversary of our publication in Science describing the first satellite-based dataset for climate monitoring.

While much has happened in the last 30 years, I thought it might be interesting for people to know what led up to the dataset’s development, and some of the politics and behind-the-scenes happenings in the early days. What follows is in approximate chronological order, and is admittedly from my own perspective. John Christy might have somewhat different recollections of these events.

Some of what follows might surprise you, some of it is humorous, and I also wanted to give credit to some of the other players. Without their help, influence, and foresight, the satellite temperature dataset might never have been developed.

 

Continuer la lecture de The UAH Global Temperature Dataset at 30 Years: A Look Back at the Early Days →

biology+acidification, climate-debate

Coral tells own tale about El Niño’s past

by Rice University, March 27, 2020 in WUWT

HOUSTON – (March 26, 2020) – There is no longer a need to guess what ocean temperatures were like in the remote tropical Pacific hundreds of years ago. The ancient coral that lived there know all.

A study in Science led by Rice University and Georgia Tech researchers parses the record archived by ancient tropical Pacific coral over the past millennium. That record could help scientists refine their models of how changing conditions in the Pacific, particularly from volcanic eruptions, influence the occurrence of El Niño events, which are major drivers of global climate.

They found the ratio of oxygen isotopes sequestered in coral, an accurate measure of historic ocean temperatures, shows no correlation between estimates of sulfate particles ejected into the atmosphere by tropical volcanic eruptions and El Niño events.

That result could be of particular interest to scientists who suggest seeding the atmosphere with sun-blocking particles may help reverse global warming.

According to Rice climate scientist and primary author Sylvia Dee, previous climate model studies often tie volcanic eruptions, which increase sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, to increased chances for an El Niño event. But the ability to analyze climate conditions based on oxygen isotopes trapped in fossil corals extends the climatological record in this key region across more than 20 ancient eruptions. Dee said this allows for a more rigorous test of the connection.

“A lot of climate modeling studies show a dynamical connection where volcanic eruptions can initiate El Niño events,” Dee said. “We can run climate models many centuries into the past, simulating volcanic eruptions for the last millennium.

“But the models are just that — models — and the coral record captures reality.”

Coral data that Georgia Tech climate scientist Kim Cobb and her team arduously collected on trips to the Pacific show little connection between known volcanoes and El Niño events over that time. Like tree rings, these paleoclimate archives hold chemical indicators, the oxygen isotopes, of oceanic conditions at the time they formed.

The coral data yields a high-fidelity record with a resolution of less than a month, tracking the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the heart of the central tropical Pacific.

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biology+acidification, climate-debate

Climate At A Glance Factchecks–Coral Reefs

by P. Homewood, March 21, 2020 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

Bullet Point Summary:

  • Coral thrive in warm water, not cold water.
  • Recent warming has allowed coral to expand their range poleward, while still thriving near the equator.
  • Coral has existed continuously for the past 40 million years, surviving temperatures and carbon dioxide levels significantly higher than what is occurring today.
  • The primary causes of coral bleaching include oxybenzone (a chemical found in sunscreen), sediment runoff from nearby coastal lands, and cold temperatures like those recorded in 2010 off the Florida coast.
  •  

Short Summary: Coral require warm water, not cold water, to live. Coral cannot live outside of tropical or subtropical waters. (See Figure 1.) As Earth continues to modestly warm, coral are extending their range toward the poles while still thriving at and near the equator. The primary reasons for bleaching events include sediment pollution from nearby coastal lands, chemicals found in sunscreen, and cold temperature events. Coral have existed continuously for the past 40 million years. Coral survived and thrived when temperatures were significantly warmer than they are today.

Figure 1: Coral Reef Locations

Continuer la lecture de Climate At A Glance Factchecks–Coral Reefs →

climate-debate

North Atlantic Oscillation

by P. Homewood, March 19, in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat

If you had not noticed (!), it has been a mild and wet start to the year here in the UK, and also across in NW Europe.

No doubt this will be linked to global warming in due course, but in fact it is simply weather, as the CET chart below proves:

Since the year started, temperatures have consistently been within the normal band. In other the sort of temperatures commonly seen at this time of year.

However, they have also been consistently in the top half of that band, rather than being spread between cold and warm, as would happen most years.

The reason for the weather we have had is, of course, the jet stream, or more precisely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which has been strongly and stubbornly positive all winter.

The Norwegian Centre for Climate Research CICERO spotted this mild weather coming back in December, and commented on 6th January:

The unusual warm temperatures this winter and forecasts indicating milder winter conditions for January, February and March in Europe are partly due to an atmospheric circulation pattern called the North Atlantic Oscillation, or NAO. This atmospheric circulation pattern explains well the weather we get in Europe, especially in winter.

https://cicero.oslo.no/no/posts/nyheter/unseasonal-temperatures-for-norway#

 

 

Our own Met Office explains the NAO phenomenon:

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