better to know...?, climate-debate, energy and fields

Interview with Samuele Furfari: European elections

by European Scientist, May 21, 2009

In the context of the European elections, European Scientist is bringing you an series of views from experts from different countries on various topics around science and science policy in Europe, to provide an overview and analysis, which will be useful for the next commission.

 

ES: What is your assessment of energy policy in Europe? What have the major achievements of the outgoing commission been?

The greatest success of the outgoing commission is to have developed a policy to support gas interconnections by financing projects of common interest. The aim is that every single methane molecule that enters the territory of the Union can circulate to any other location. This will help to diversify gas supply sources, particularly from the south of the Union (thanks to more gas arriving as LNG and via the Southern Corridor).

 

ES: There is a wide disparity in energy policy between different countries (e.g. France and Germany). Do you think it is necessary to harmonise policy or on the contrary is it preferable to maintain diversity?

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climate and geology

Tertiary hyperthermal events: precursors of the current situation?

by A. Jacobs & A. Préat, May 20, 2019 in SSRN.Elsevier

The focus of this study is based on a detailed analysis of the hyperthermal events of the

Paleocene / Eocene limit of 56 Ma and the lower Eocene (for the 54-52 Ma interval, Figure 1).

This example will show that the Earth has experienced many times much higher temperatures

than today, with warmer, sometimes more acidic oceans and an atmosphere much richer in CO2

(or CH4) than the current one. Are these past events precursors of the current situation?

Keywords: global warming, climate change, Paleocene, Eocene, hyperthermal events

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climate-debate

Greenland Has Been Cooling In Recent Years – 26 Of Its 47 Largest Glaciers Now Stable Or Gaining Ice

by K. Richard, May 20, 2019 in NoTricksZone

A new analysis of recent trends for the Greenland ice sheet reveals that since 2012 there has been an abrupt slowing of melt rates and a trend reversal to cooling and ice growth.
• In 2018, 26 of Greenland’s 47 largest glaciers were either stable or grew in size.
• Overall, the 47 glaciers advanced by +4.1  km² during 2018.  Of the 6 largest glaciers, 4 grew while 2 retreated.
• Since 2012, ice loss has been “minor” to “modest” due to the dramatic melting slowdown.
• Summer average temperatures for 2018 were lower than the 2008-2018 average by more than one standard deviation.
• Since 2000, the extent of the non-snow-covered areas of Greenland has increased by 500 km² per year.

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climate-debate

EDITORIAL: A CLIMATE-CHANGE DRUBBING IN AUSTRALIA

by GWPF from WallStreetJ, May 19, 2019

The right in Australia won on the sharp contrast with the left on taxes, growth and climate change.

If American Democrats want a warning about the consequences of embracing the Green New Deal, look no further than Saturday’s election shocker in Australia. The opposition center-left Labor Party had led in the polls for months but lost as voters rejected its move left on taxes, spending and above all on climate change.

The ruling Liberal-National Coalition had been divided and tossed out two prime ministers during its nearly six years in power. Scott Morrison, the compromise choice as Prime Minister last year, managed to unite conservatives around a platform that stressed economic growth, tax cuts and support for the country’s energy producers.

Labor leader Bill Shorten promised to raise taxes on the “wealthy,” but his main theme was curbing climate change. Labor promised to cut carbon emissions nearly in half by 2030 compared to 2005 levels while subsidizing wind and solar. Mr. Shorten and Labor refused to support a job-producing coal mine in Queensland, and their candidates were routed in the resource-rich province.

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Bill Shorten, leader of the Labor Party of Australia, reacts as he concedes defeat during the Labor party election night event in Melbourne, Australia, on Saturday, May 18, 2019. PHOTO: CARLA GOTTGENS/BLOOMBERG NEWS

climate and geology, climate-debate

140 Years to a PETM-Style Doomsday!!! Another PETM/Chicken Little of the Sea Epic Fail

by David Middleton, May 18, 2019 in WUWT

Gingerich, 2019 is a recent paper reiterating the PETM Chicken Little of the Sea meme. In the comments section of a recent post, it was cited as evidence of imminent catastrophe and followed up by a comment featuring this image from Clean Tecnica:

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I just had to track this back to the Clean Tecnica article… Their scientific prowess is almost always laughable… And I was not disappointed.

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biology+acidification

CO2 and ocean chemistry

by Dr. Daniela Mazza, May 18, 2019 in WUWT

Oceans cover about 71% of the earth surface, but their influence on climate change is not only due to high heat capacity of water , not only to the ocean’s water circulation, but to a fact which is widely underestimated : the pH (acidity level) of sea-water is substantially alkaline, ranging from 8.0 to 8.7 . This means that the balance between positive and negative ions is reached by accounting for OH– ,hydroxide ions, in a far larger amount in respect to H+ hydrogen ions.

The pH value higher than 7 allows seawater to dissolve and react huge amounts of CO2 , carbon dioxide, thus affecting the amount of this gas in the atmosphere by absorbing excess of it. To calculate this excess in respect to what would be the true equilibrium value in the air, all of the chemical reactions involved have to be simultaneously computed, accounting for their equilibrium constants, which in turn depend on temperature.

1 – CO2 (gas) + H2O <==> H2CO3* (H2CO3* is the sum of dissolved CO2 and H2CO3)

2 – H2CO3 <==> H+ + HCO3–

3 – HCO3– <==> H+ + CO3– –

4 – H2O <==> H+ + OH–

5 – Ca++ + CO3– – <==> CaCO3 (calcite)

6 – Ca++ + OH– <==> Ca(OH)+

7 – Mg++ + OH– <==> Mg(OH)+

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Conclusions : CO2 is at 410 ppm far above the equilibrium value (315) , provided a standard seawater composition and an average ocean temperature of 17°C (taken from wikipedia). No doubt that solubility will force more CO2 to be stored in oceans . Moreover if we consider CaCO3 formation (seawater has overshot the solubility of this salt nearly 50 times but nucleation and growth are slow) still more CO2 will be stored by limestone.

energy and fields

L’aluminium, symbole du désarroi climatique ? Pas pour tous….

by Prof. Samuel Furfari, 16 mai 2019, in ScienceClimatEnergie

La Commission européenne a publié dès le début de l’année 2019 son rapport sur l’évolution des prix et coûts de l’énergie en Europe.  On peut y lire que l’étude de ces coûts devrait conduire à  « veiller à̀ ce que les entreprises ne soient pas désavantagées ni écartées » et que « les prix de détail (réels) dans l’Union sont plus élevés qu’aux États-Unis, au Canada, en Russie, en Chine et en Turquie, mais inférieurs à̀ ceux observés au Japon et au Brésil. » Le graphique suivant (Figure 1) illustre bien le fait que les industries européennes sont pénalisées par rapport aux entreprises d’autres pays qui sont des concurrents directs sur les marchés internationaux, y compris pour nos importations. Le rapport ajoute pudiquement, sans y insister que « l’évolution des prix de l’électricité est dominée par les taxes et prélèvements ».

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climate-debate

Our Urban “Climate Crisis”

by Jim Steele, May 17, 2019 in WUWT

Based on a globally averaged statistic, some scientists and several politicians claim we are facing a climate crisis. Although it’s wise to think globally, organisms are never affected by global averages. Never! Organisms only respond to local conditions. Always! Given that weather stations around the globe only record local conditions, it is important to understand over one third of the earth’s weather stations report a cooling trend (i.e. Fig 4 below ) Cooling trends have various local and regional causes, but clearly, areas with cooling trends are not facing a “warming climate crisis”. Unfortunately, by averaging cooling and warming trends, the local factors affecting varied trends have been obscured.

It is well known as human populations grow, landscapes lose increasing amounts of natural vegetation, experience a loss of soil moisture and are increasingly covered by heat absorbing pavement and structures. All those factors raise temperatures so that a city’s downtown area can be 10°F higher than nearby rural areas. Despite urban areas representing less than 3% of the USA’s land surface, 82% of our weather stations are located in urbanized areas. This prompts critical thinkers to ask, “have warmer urbanized landscapes biased the globally averaged temperature?” (Arctic warming also biases the global average, but that dynamic must await a future article.)

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better to know...?, climate-debate

‘Gimme Gimme Shock Treatment’

by Joe Bastardi, May 17, 2019 inThePatriotPost

Apparently, the new strategy to fight climate change is shock therapy. It’s like today’s environmental crusaders are channeling the Ramones song “Gimme Gimme Shock Treatment.” Here are some illustrations.

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Shock treatment is for extreme measures. But take, for example, this Dr. Willie Soon plot of solar irradiance (a measure of solar energy) vs. water vapor:

Water vapor is the number-one greenhouse gas. So it’s no secret what temperatures do when water vapor increases.
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Biodiversity, climate-debate

Recent Studies Indicate Species Extinctions Decline With Warming – Mass Extinction Events Due To COOLING

by K. Richard, May 16, 2019 in NoTricksZone

In the past it has been widely reported that high and abruptly changing CO2 concentrations led to climate conditions that were “too hot for complex life to survive” on the planet.
More recently, though, scientists have determined that the opposite may have been true: mass extinction events occurred during periods of global cooling, expansive ice sheet growth, and marine-habitat-destroying sea level drops of more than 100 meters.
In fact, of the 5 previous mass extinctions, volcanism-induced glaciation is thought to be responsible for the 1st, 3rd, and 4th events, with the 2nd unknown and the 5th from an aseteroid impact.  None of these explanations have ties to CO2 concentrations or sudden warming.

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Image Sources: Loehle & Eschenbach (2012), BBC, Wrightstone, 2019
climate-debate

No Hockey Sticks: Studies Reveal Long-Term Lack of Warming

by Vijay Jayaraj, May 16,2019 in WUWT

A new temperature reconstruction, using proxy temperature measurements from locations in central Asia, has revealed that there has been no warming in the past 432 years.

The Global Warming “Hiatus” or Pause

The word “hiatus” became popular in recent years after the discovery of a pause or hiatus in global warming. There has been a lack of warming in the atmosphere since 1999, despite the predictions of computer climate models.

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climate-debate

HALF OF 21ST CENTURY WARMING DUE TO EL NINO

by Roy Spencer, May 15, 2019 in GWPF

A major uncertainty in figuring out how much of recent warming has been human-caused is knowing how much nature has caused. The IPCC is quite sure that nature is responsible for less than half of the warming since the mid-1900s, but politicians, activists, and various green energy pundits go even further, behaving as if warming is 100% human-caused.

The fact is we really don’t understand the causes of natural climate change on the time scale of an individual lifetime, although theories abound. For example, there is plenty of evidence that the Little Ice Age was real, and so some of the warming over the last 150 years (especially prior to 1940) was natural — but how much?

The answer makes as huge difference to energy policy. If global warming is only 50% as large as is predicted by the IPCC (which would make it only 20% of the problem portrayed by the media and politicians), then the immense cost of renewable energy can be avoided until we have new cost-competitive energy technologies.

The recently published paper Recent Global Warming as Confirmed by AIRSused 15 years of infrared satellite data to obtain a rather strong global surface warming trend of +0.24 C/decade. Objections have been made to that study by me (e.g. here) and others, not the least of which is the fact that the 2003-2017 period addressed had a record warm El Nino near the end (2015-16), which means the computed warming trend over that period is not entirely human-caused warming.

If we look at the warming over the 19-year period 2000-2018, we see the record El Nino event during 2015-16 (all monthly anomalies are relative to the 2001-2017 average seasonal cycle):

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See also Spencer’s blog

climate-debate

The Little Ice Age: What Happened Around the World

by Marcia Wendorf, May 15, 2019 in InterestingEngineering

Between 1300 and 1850, the Earth experienced a Little Ice Age whose cause to this day is not known.

During the period 950 CE to 1250 CE, the earth experienced an unusually warm period, which became known as the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) or the Medieval Climatic Anomaly. At their height, temperatures during that period were similar to those experienced during earth’s mid-20th-century warming period.

Following the Medieval Warm Period came a period of intense cold, which has become known as the Little Ice Age (LIA). The term “Little Ice Age” was coined by Dutch-born American geologist F.E. Matthes in 1939. The LIA began around 1300 CE and lasted until about 1850 CE.

Within that stretch, NASA’s Earth Observatory has described three particularly cold periods: one around 1650, a second around 1770, and the third around 1850.

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climate-debate

Solutions au réchauffement climatique : des universitaires de Cambridge tentent de trouver un moyen de re-geler l’Arctique

by F. Gervais, 15 mai 2018, in Atlantico

Atlantico : Quelles solutions envisagées par la communauté scientifique sont aujourd’hui les plus plausibles pour infléchir réellement le réchauffement climatique ? Pour l’inverser ?

François Gervais : La température moyenne de la Planète a augmenté de l’ordre de 1°C depuis le début du siècle dernier. Mais selon les données du Hadley Center britannique (HADCRUT4), 60 % de cette hausse s’est produite de 1910 à 1945 alors que les émissions de CO2 étaient 6 à 10 fois inférieures à ce qu’elles sont de nos jours, plaidant pour une cause principalement naturelle. Durant les 74 années suivantes, la température n’a augmenté que de 0,4°C en dépit de l’accélération des émissions à partir de 1945. Ce ne sont donc pas les observations qui sont inquiétantes mais les projections des modèles de climat repris par le GIEC. Leur problème est toutefois qu’ils ne sont pas d’accord entre eux, prévoyant des hausses avec une incertitude dans un rapport de 1 à 3, incertitude qui ne s’est pas réduite en 40 ans d’études en dépit de moyens considérables. Un corpus de 3000 publications dans des revues internationales conclut en revanche à une prééminence de la variabilité naturelle du climat sur la contribution anthropique. Cela dit, réduire notre addiction au carbone est sans doute sage car les ressources ne sont pas inépuisables. Mais jouer aux apprentis sorciers avec la géo-ingénierie est plus discutable. Et à quoi bon puisque des astronomes prévoient une moindre activité solaire dans les années à venir. Les recherches visant à retransformer le CO2 en carburant à partir de la photosynthèse de micro-algues sont intéressantes, surtout si le prix du baril devait considérablement augmenter à l’avenir. Toutefois, le supplément de CO2dans l’atmosphère a enrichi la biomasse végétale de l’ordre de 20 % comme le vérifie le verdissement de la Planète observé par satellite. Serait-il raisonnable d’en contrarier le bénéfice en particulier pour les plantes nutritives ?

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energy and fields

Vice-President Šefčovič joins U.S. President Trump in opening an LNG export terminal

by European Commission, May 14, 2019

LNG

In the Joint EU-US Statement of July 2018 agreed by President Jean-Claude Juncker and U.S. President Donald Trump, it was decided to strengthen strategic transatlantic cooperation on energy. In particular, the European Union expressed its ambition to import more liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States to diversify its energy supply.

In the end of April U.S. liquefied natural gas exports to the EU were up by 272%. It is in this context that on Tuesday 14 May, Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič in charge of the Energy Union will join the President of the United States Donald Trump in getting a first-hand look at the Cameron LNG export terminal in Hackberry in the U.S. State of Louisiana, which is expected to launch first shipment in the second half of this year.

climate-debate, energy and fields, renewable energy

German Employer’s Association Op Ed: “No Expert Politician In Berlin Believes In Switch To Green Energies Any More”

by P. Gosselin, May 14, 2019 in NoTricksZone

As the pressure mounts in Germany to switch off coal power plants and to rapidly transition over to green energies, one gets the feeling that it all has more to do with a desperate, last-ditch effort by the green energy proponents to rescue their pet green project.

Behind closed doors, no one in Berlin believes in it

Now, just days ago, energy expert Dr. Björn Peters wrote at the German Association of Employers site that the Energiewende has deteriorated to the point that: “No specialist politician in Berlin believes in the success of the Energiewende any more. Whoever you ask, everyone says this only behind closed doors and thinks that if you go to the press with it you can only lose against the ‘green’ media mainstream.”

Peters warns that what is needed in Germany is a good dose of reality and “a fresh start on energy policy.”

Advantages of fossil fuels “too great”

The German expert writes that despite the hundreds of billions of euros committed to green energies, “chemical energy from coal, oil and gas supplies about four fifths of primary energy worldwide and also in Germany and thus represents the present energy supply”.

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energy and fields

The next ‘Ferrari of shale’ may be hiding in Australia’s outback

by Bloomberg Business,  May 3, 2019, in theJapantimes

SYDNEY – In a corner of the Australian Outback, a drilling crew will soon try tapping shale rocks that could hold more than three times the world’s annual consumption of natural gas.

Origin Energy Ltd. plans to drill two wells later this year in the Northern Territory’s Beetaloo Basin, after the local government ended a three-year ban on fracking — the practice of extracting oil and gas from layers of shale rock deep underground. With an estimated 500 trillion cubic feet (14 trillion cubic meters) of gas, Beetaloo has been compared to famed U.S. shale regions such as Marcellus and Barnett.

But its isolated location, lack of infrastructure and the likelihood of tough environmental opposition make Beetaloo a highly speculative investment.

“There are some big numbers being quoted, and people have to realize this is exploration,” said Mark Schubert, Origin’s head of integrated gas, noting that only some of the total reserves would be extractable.

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climate-debate

Germany, Poland snub EU appeal for greater climate ambition

by Frédéric Simon, May 7, 2019 in Euractiv

The governments of France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Denmark, Spain, Portugal and Luxembourg have launched an appeal to boost EU climate action ahead of a major summit on the future of Europe taking place in Romania next Thursday (9 May).

A leaked “non-paper” by the eight countries calls on the European Union to step up the fight against climate change and sign up to a European Commission plan to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions “by 2050 at the latest”.

Germany, Italy and Poland were notably absent from the list of signatories of the leaked document, obtained by EURACTIV, echoing divisions at a recent EU summit.

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Biodiversity

UN Biodiversity Officials Fail Transparency Test

by Donna Laframboise, May 13, 2019 in BigPictureNews

The United Nations Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) is a clone of the IPCC, the UN’s climate body. But there are some notable differences.

We’re told that a great deal of power resides with the Multidisciplinary Expert Panel (MEP), which currently consists of 28 individuals. These are the people who, for example, decide which international scholars will be assigned to discuss which topics within the pages of official IPBES reports.

To its credit, that entity’s website has been designed to provide the CV of everyone who sits on this panel. Rather than taking the UN’s word for it that these are world class experts, the public is given the opportunity to examine their credentials firsthand.

But saying you believe in transparency is different from acting like it. If organizations aren’t living up to the standards they’ve set for themselves, that’s worth noticing.

Last week was hugely important for the IPBES – it sought and received massive international media coverage. Despite this, it utterly failed its own transparency test. The CVs of most MEP members aren’t actually available online.
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better to know...?, energy and fields

De l’avenir de la voiture à moteur thermique

by Jean-Pierre Schaeken, 10mai 2019 in ScienceClimateEnergie

Dans un contexte de remise en question des voitures à moteur thermique et de lobbying pour en interdire la vente, à brève échéance, on serait bien avisé avant de se précipiter dans un tel changement radical et brutal de paradigme, de s’interroger sur la pertinence de son urgence et, partant, sur une approche plus pragmatique tenant compte des réalités socio-économiques.

ll faut d’abord rappeler que la marché de la voiture est mondial et qu’il est de plus en plus conditionné par les politiques des pays émergents et en développement qui ont comme souci prioritaire d’assurer leur croissance économique et d’améliorer les conditions de vie et le confort de leur population. La voiture en fait partie !
Ces mêmes pays sont également fort préoccupés, à juste titre, par la pollution de leurs villes [1]. Or celle-ci provient nettement plus de la production de chaleur dans les secteurs industriels, des services et du logement, que de la circulation automobile.Ce n’est donc pas cette dernière qui, pour ces pays, est la cible prioritaire pour assainir l’air urbain, mais plutôt le mode et l’efficacité de génération de calories dans les secteurs précités.
D’ailleurs, le marché des voitures à moteur thermique, connaît une croissance soutenue dans le monde ces dernières années (en moyenne 3%/an). Sur les 98 millions de voitures neuves vendues en 2018, il n’y aurait qu’à peine plus d’un million de véhicules électriques (VE) [2] et très peu de véhicules à hydrogène. Alors que tous les fabricants investissent dans le développement des VE, la très grande majorité d’entre eux dont tous les européens et même Toyota qui y avait consacré des recherches approfondies, ont abandonné l’option hydrogène.

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climate-debate

Climate data shows no recent warming in Antarctica, instead a slight cooling

by Anthony Watts, May 10, 2019 in WUWT

Below is a plot from a resource we have not used before on WUWT, “RIMFROST“. It depicts the average temperatures for all weather stations in Antarctica. Note that there is some recent cooling in contrast to a steady warming since about 1959.


Data and plot provided by http://rimfrost.no 

Contrast that with claims by Michael Mann, Eric Steig, and others who used statistical tricks to make Antarctica warm up. Fortunately, it wasn’t just falsified by climate skeptics, but rebutted in peer review too.

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better to know...?, energy and fields

Methane-consuming bacteria could be the future of fuel

by Northwestern University, May 9, 2019 in ScienceDaily

Discovery illuminates how bacteria turn methane gas into liquid methanol.
Researchers have found that the enzyme responsible for the methane-methanol conversion in methanotrophic bacteria catalyzes the reaction at a site that contains just one copper ion. This finding could lead to newly designed, human-made catalysts that can convert methane — a highly potent greenhouse gas — to readily usable methanol with the same effortless mechanism.
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The study will publish on Friday, May 10 in the journal Science. Rosenzweig is the Weinberg Family Distinguished Professor of Life Sciences in Northwestern’s Weinberg College of Arts and Sciences. Hoffman is the Charles E. and Emma H. Morrison Professor of Chemistry at Weinberg.

By oxidizing methane and converting it to methanol, methanotrophic bacteria (or “methanotrophs”) can pack a one-two punch. Not only are they removing a harmful greenhouse gas from the environment, they are also generating a readily usable, sustainable fuel for automobiles, electricity and more.

Current industrial processes to catalyze a methane-to-methanol reaction require tremendous pressure and extreme temperatures, reaching higher than 1,300 degrees Celsius. Methanotrophs, however, perform the reaction at room temperature and “for free”.

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Biodiversity

The UN’s Extinction Warning Doesn’t Add Up (Except On The BBC)

by Toby Young, May 9, 2019 in ClimateChangeDispatch

Anyone watching the BBC’s News at Ten on Monday would have been surprised to learn that economic growth poses a dire threat to the future of life on this planet.

We’re used to hearing this from climate change campaigners, but I’ve always taken such claims with a pinch of salt, suspecting that the anti-capitalist left is distorting the evidence. Apparently not.

‘One million species at risk of imminent extinction according to a major UN report,’ intoned the BBC. ‘It says the Earth’s ecosystems are being destroyed by the relentless pursuit of economic growth.’

So does this mean the Extinction Rebellion protestors are right?

I decided to do some digging to see if one million species really do ‘face extinction in the next few decades’, as the BBC put it.

That claim is based on a report by the UN’s Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), but it hasn’t been published yet.

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La géologie, une science plus que passionnante … et diverse