Archives de catégorie : better to know…?

Antarctic Sea Ice Suddenly Declined, But Scientists Warn: Don’t Blame Climate Change

by Adam Vaughan, July 3, 2019 in ClimateChangeDispatch


Decades of expanding sea ice in Antarctica have been wiped out by three years of sudden and dramatic declines, leaving scientist puzzled as to why the region has flipped so abruptly.

A new satellite analysis reveals that between 2014 and 2017 sea ice extent in the southern hemisphere suffered unprecedented annual decreases, leaving the area covered by sea ice at its lowest point in 40 years.

The declines were so big that they outstripped the losses in the fast-melting Arctic over the same period.

“It’s very surprising. We just haven’t seen decreases like that in either hemisphere,” says Claire Parkinson at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, who undertook the analysis.

However, researchers cautioned against pinning the changes on climate change and said it was too early to say if the shrinking is the start of a long-term trend or a blip.

After growing for decades, Antarctic sea ice extent declined at an unprecedented rate between 2014 and 2017.

More than 50 newly discovered lakes beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet

by Lancaster University, June 26, 2019 in ScienceDaily


Researchers have discovered 56 previously uncharted subglacial lakes beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet bringing the total known number of lakes to 60. Although these lakes are typically smaller than similar lakes in Antarctica, their discovery demonstrates that lakes beneath the Greenland Ice Sheet are much more common than previously thought.

Dr Stephen J. Livingstone, Senior Lecturer in Physical Geography, University of Sheffield, said:

“The lakes we have identified tend to cluster in eastern Greenland where the bed is rough and can therefore readily trap and store meltwater and in northern Greenland, where we suggest the lakes indicate a patchwork of frozen and thawed bed conditions.

“These lakes could provide important targets for direct exploration to look for evidence of extreme life and to sample the sediments deposited in the lake that preserve a record of environmental change.”

Sky Abandon Facts In Favour Of Climate Propaganda

by P. Homewood, June 25, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


As far as climate change is concerned, Sky News have now abandoned all pretensions to factual accuracy, in favour of blatant propaganda.

They have a new 12-minute special report, to set off a week of special reports, but if this trailer is anything to go by it’s going to be the same old garbage the BBC have served up for years:

The use of the word “storms” in the link title, along with the phrase “climate crisis” gives a good idea of the junk that is to follow.

Let’s go through the trailer’s claims and statements:

Parts Of Canada Will Actually To See Up To 10 CM Of Snowfall By The First Day Of Summer

by Nicole Hul, June 20, 2019 in Narcity


Summer officially kicks off tomorrow – but that doesn’t mean that the nice, hot weather typically associated with summer is coming, at least not to some parts of Canada. Even though winter technically ended several months ago, wintery, snowy weather hasn’t stopped reigning down in a number of regions in the country. The Alberta weather forecast shows snowfall of up to 10 cm by the first day of summer. Is summer cancelled?

It’s already been snowing in several provinces in June. While spring snow was already unusual, summer snow is even more bizarre.

Yesterday on Wednesday, Environment Canada issued a snowfall warning for Jasper National Park in Alberta, forecasting up to 10 cm of snow. Now, they are extending their warning, and even adding a new region.

Marc Bruxelle, Dreamstime.com

Consensus? 200+ New 2019 Papers Support A Skeptical Position On Climate Alarmism

by K. Richard, June17, 2019 in NoTricksZone


In the first 5½ months of 2019, over 200 scientific papers have been published that cast doubt on the position that anthropogenic CO2 emissions function as the climate’s fundamental control knob…or that otherwise serve to question the efficacy of climate models or the related “consensus” positions commonly endorsed by policymakers and ²²²²mainstream media sources.

 

These 200+ new papers affirm the position that there are significant limitations and uncertainties inherent in our understanding of climate and climate changes, emphasizing that climate science is not settled.

More specifically, the papers in this compilation support these four main skeptical positions — categorized here as N(1) – N(4) — which question climate alarm.

Earth system models underestimate carbon fixation by plants in the high latitudes

by From Nature Communications, June 18 in WUWT


Abstract

Most Earth system models agree that land will continue to store carbon due to the physiological effects of rising CO2 concentration and climatic changes favoring plant growth in temperature-limited regions. But they largely disagree on the amount of carbon uptake. The historical CO2 increase has resulted in enhanced photosynthetic carbon fixation (Gross Primary Production, GPP), as can be evidenced from atmospheric CO2 concentration and satellite leaf area index measurements. Here, we use leaf area sensitivity to ambient COfrom the past 36 years of satellite measurements to obtain an Emergent Constraint (EC) estimate of GPP enhancement in the northern high latitudes at two-times the pre-industrial CO2 concentration (3.4 ± 0.2 Pg C yr−1). We derive three independent comparable estimates from CO2 measurements and atmospheric inversions. Our EC estimate is 60% larger than the conventionally used multi-model average (44% higher at the global scale). This suggests that most models largely underestimate photosynthetic carbon fixation and therefore likely overestimate future atmospheric CO2 abundance and ensuing climate change, though not proportionately.

Total a commencé à exploiter le supercalculateur Pangea III à Pau

by AFP, 18 juin 2019 in ConnaissanceDesEnergies


Total a annoncé mardi qu’il avait commencé à exploiter à Pau son supercalculateur Pangea III, le plus puissant ordinateur du monde dans l’industrie avec une puissance de calcul de 25 petaflops (millions de milliards d’opérations par seconde).

Pangea III est onzième au classement toute catégories des ordinateurs, derrière des machines installées dans de grands centres de recherche aux États-Unis, en Chine, au Japon ou en Europe. Le groupe pétrolier a investi “plusieurs dizaines de millions de dollars” dans ce troisième supercalculateur, a confirmé une source proche du dossier à l’AFP.

La machine porte la puissance de calcul totale du groupe à 31,7 petaflops (soit 170 000 ordinateurs portables). Elle triple sa capacité de stockage à 76 petaoctets (près de 50 millions de films en HD).

Extremes

by Judith Curry, June14, 2019 in WUWT


Politics versus science in attributing extreme weather events to manmade global warming.

If you follow me on twitter, you may have noticed that I was scheduled to testify before the House Oversight and Reform Committee on Jun 12 [link].  The subject of the Hearing is Contending with Natural Disasters in the Wake of Climate Change.

Late on Jun 10, I received an email telling me that the Hearing is postponed (as yet unscheduled).  Apparently the Committee finds it more urgent to have a Hearing related to holding the Attorney General and Secretary of Commerce in contempt of Congress [link].  Interesting to ponder that Congressional procedural issues are deemed to be more important than Climate Change.

So I spent all last week working on my testimony (which is why there have been no new blog posts).  I hope the Hearing will eventually happen (Michael Mann is also scheduled to testify).

Hurricanes and climate change constitute a major portion of my testimony.  You may recall my recent series  on Hurricanes & climate change [link].  Specifically with regards to detection and attribution, my bottom line conclusion was:

“In summary, the trend signal in hurricane activity has not yet had time to rise above the background variability of natural processes. Manmade climate change may have caused changes in hurricane activity that are not yet detectable due to the small magnitude of these changes compared to estimated natural variability, or due to observational limitations. But at this point, there is no convincing evidence that manmade global warming has caused a change in hurricane activity.”

Hydrogen station explodes, Toyota halts sales of fuel cell cars, is this the end?

by Fred Lambert, June11, 2019 in Electrek


A hydrogen refueling station exploded in Norway on Monday and the company operating the station has suspended operation at its other locations following the explosion.

Now, Toyota and Hyundai are both halting sales of fuel cell vehicles in the country.

Does this spell the end of fuel cell hydrogen vehicles as a “zero-emission” alternative?

The Uno-X hydrogen station in Sandvika in Bærum exploded on Monday and resulted in two injuries in a nearby non-fuel cell vehicle.

According to the police, the explosion was strong enough that it activated the airbags in the vehicle without any impact.

The cause of the explosion is currently unknown and the rest of the refueling network is being shut down.

Study: Cattle Methane is a moooot point in global climate

by Anthony Watts, June 12, 2019 in WUWT


Via No Tricks Zone: Agrobiologist and scientific researcher Dr. Albrecht Glatzle, author of over 100 scientific papers and two textbooks, has published research that shows:

“…there is no scientific evidence, whatsoever, that domestic livestock could represent a risk for the Earth’s climate” and the “warming potential of anthropogenic GHG [greenhouse gas] emissions has been exaggerated.”

Glatzle, 2018

Domestic Livestock and ItsAlleged Role in Climate Change

Abstract:

“Our key conclusion is there is no need for anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), and even less so for livestock-born emissions, to explain climate change. Climate has always been changing, and even the present warming is most likely driven by natural factors.

The warming potential of anthropogenic GHG emissions has been exaggerated, and the beneficial impacts of manmade CO2 emissions for nature, agriculture, and global food security have been systematically suppressed, ignored, or at least downplayed by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and other UN (United Nations) agencies.

Furthermore, we expose important methodological deficiencies in IPCC and FAO (Food Agriculture Organization) instructions and applications for the quantification of the manmade part of non-CO2-GHG emissions from agro-ecosystems.

However, so far, these fatal errors inexorably propagated through the scientific literature.

Finally, we could not find a clear domestic livestock fingerprint, neither in the geographical methane distribution nor in the historical evolution of mean atmospheric methane concentration.”

Ouragans en Atlantique : prévisions pour la saison 2019

by Regis Crepet, 2 juin 2019 in LaChaîneMétéo


Ces deux dernières années ont été marquées par une activité cyclonique supérieure aux moyennes statistiques en Atlantique Nord, notamment en 2017 avec des phénomènes puissants tels Irma et Maria dans les Caraïbes. Cette année, alors que la saison démarre officiellement le 1er juin, nos prévisions sont plus rassurantes avec la perspective d’une activité cyclonique légèrement plus faible que la moyenne.

 

En ce début d’été météorologique, la saison cyclonique débute dans l’Atlantique nord (les ouragans). Cette saison s’étend officiellement du 1er juin au 30 novembre, avec un pic d’activité d’août à octobre. Il est donc l’heure pour les différents organismes météo de la planète et les météorologues et climatologues de La Chaîne Météo de se pencher sur les prévisions de cette saison à venir.

En 2017, la saison dans l’océan Atlantique nord a figuré parmi les plus actives depuis le début des relevés, avec des phénomènes dévastateurs (Harvey, Irma ou encore Maria dans les Caraïbes). Comme 2017, la saison 2018 s’est située au-dessus des moyennes (calculées par la NOAA d’après la période 1981/2010). Cette dernière saison a présenté, pour l’Atlantique nord, 15 phénomènes cycloniques, avec 8 ouragans dont 2 qui ont atteint la catégorie 3 sur 5, qualifiés alors de “majeurs”.

UK scientists warn raw material output must surge to match EV growth

by Sam Morgan, June 7, 2019 in Euractiv


In a letter to the UK’s Committee on Climate Change (CCC) on Wednesday (5 June), a team of scientists suggests that the CCC’s proposed target of net-zero emissions by 2050 will need almost all cars and vans on British roads to be electric-battery powered.

The team, which supports that goal, outlined the raw material needs and challenges that will come hand-in-hand with such an ambitious target. Current battery production requires materials like cobalt, copper and nickel.

Professor Richard Herrington of the Natural History Museum said in a statement that “there are huge implications for our natural resources not only to produce green technologies like electric cars but keep them charged”.

He and his colleagues calculated that switching all of the UK’s light vehicles to electric will require 207,900 tonnes of cobalt, 264,600 tonnes of lithium carbonate and over 2,300,000 tonnes of copper.

The challenge of re-using the CO2

by Prof. Samuele Furfari, June 7, 2019 in ScienceClimatEnergie


In its Special Report n° 15 “Global warming of 1.5°C” (SR15) [1], IPCC proposes four scenarios  to limit Earth temperature increase to 1.5°C. In all  scenarios COemissions are kept at virtually zero by 2050. These scenarios are based on the technology called Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) that will remove COto compensate COanthropic emissions.

All pathways that limit global warming to 1.5°C with limited or no overshoot project the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) on the order of 100–1000 Gt CO2  over the 21st century. CDR would be used to compensate for residual emissions and, in most cases, achieve net negative emissions to return global warming to 1.5°C following a peak (high confidence). CDR deployment of several hundreds of Gt COis subject to multiple feasibility and sustainability constraints (high confidence). Significant near-term emissions reductions and measures to lower energy and land demand can limit CDR deployment to a few hundred Gt COwithout reliance on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) (high confidence)” (page 19).

   IPCC defines   Carbon dioxide removal (CDR)” as follows : Anthropogenic activities removing CO2  from the atmosphere and durably storing it in geological, terrestrial, or ocean reservoirs, or in products. It includes existing and potential anthropogenic enhancement of biological or geochemical sinks and direct air capture and storage but excludes natural COuptake not directly caused by human activities” (page 26).

The fourth scenario recognizes the logical and inevitable increase of COemissions if the world  continues its growth to remove poverty and allow Asia and Africa countries to develop. Therefore, this scenario is based on a massive use of the CDR techniques as the report says: “Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR“.

   Indeed, CDR is just rebranding of the CCS concept that is a cul-de-sac technology for a lack of economy, a lack of available adapted geological sinks on the production sites and also a lack of population acceptance.

Arctic Shipping Climate Change, Commercial Traffic and Port Development

by Taylor & Francis Group, eBook August 20, 2019


This book considers both the present state of Arctic shipping and possible future trends with reference to the various sectors of maritime transportation: cruise tourism, container traffic, and bulk shipping. Ports are analysed as tools that support the strategies of coastal states to foster the development of resource extraction, enhance the attractiveness of Arctic shipping lanes and enable the control of maritime activities through coast guard deployment.

The aim of this book is to draw a picture of the trends of Arctic shipping. How is traffic evolving in Canada’s Arctic, or along the Northern Sea Route? Are there significant differences between bulk and container shipping segments when considering the Arctic market? How are the ports and the hinterland developing and what are the strategies behind those? How is the legal framework shaping the evolution of maritime transportation? The contributors to this book consider all of these questions, and more, as they map out the prospects for Arctic shipping and analyse in detail the development of Arctic shipping as a result of multi-variable interactions.

This book will be key reading for industry professionals and post-graduate students alike.

..

The epic search for oldest ice in Antarctica is starting

by Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia, June 5, 2019 in WUWT


Click here for project video.

On 1st June 2019 the European Beyond EPICA Oldest Ice Core project started with the aim of drilling for and recovering ice from up to 1.5 Million years ago in Antarctica. The previous EPICA project recovered ice from 800,000 years ago. The new project aims to go beyond that. The new core will give us information on the greenhouse gases present during the Middle Pleistocene Transition (MPT), which occurred between 900,000 and 1.2 Million years ago. During this period the climatic periodicity transitioned from 41,000 to 100,000 years between ice ages. Why this change happened is the mystery scientists want to resolve.

To do this, experts from 10 European Countries and 16 different Research Institutions have joined forces under the guidance of Carlo Barbante and his management team at the CNR and Ca’ Foscari University of Venice in Italy, funded by the European Horizon 2020-research programme.

For further information visit https://www.beyondepica.eu/

In hot pursuit of dinosaurs: Tracking extinct species on ancient Earth via biogeograph

by Charles the moderator, May 31, 2019 in WUWT


University of Tokyo

One researcher at the University of Tokyo is in hot pursuit of dinosaurs, tracking extinct species around ancient Earth. Identifying the movements of extinct species from millions of years ago can provide insights into ancient migration routes, interaction between species, and the movement of continents.

“If we find fossils on different continents from closely related species, then we can guess that at some point there must have been a connection between those continents,” said Tai Kubo, Ph.D., a postdoctoral researcher affiliated with the University Museum at the University of Tokyo.

A map of life – biogeography

Previous studies in biogeography — the geographic distribution of plants and animals — had not considered the evolutionary relationships between ancient species. The new method that Kubo designed, called biogeographical network analysis, converts evolutionary relationships into geographical relationships.

By combining data from fossils and models of the ancient Earth, researchers can map where ancient species may have migrated. This method, called biogeographical network analysis, converts evolutionary relationships between species into geographical relationships. This method was used in research by Tai Kubo, Ph.D., a postdoctoral researcher affiliated with the University Museum at the University of Tokyo. Credit Caitlin Devor, The University of Tokyo, CC-BY Usage Restrictions Image by Caitlin Devor, The University of Tokyo, CC-BY

Washington Post Gets Excited By Tiny Increase In Green Vote At Euro Elections

by P. Homewood, May 28, 2019 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


You would think the Washington Post should be able to distinguish between a handful of protesting school kids and millions of grown up voters!

In recent months, massive demonstrations over climate change have rocked European capitals, dwarfing the mobilizations of the continent’s far right. Fridays for Future — a movement inspired by Swedish teenage activist Greta Thunberg — has seen countless European teenagers walk out of school to protest climate inaction. It underscores a growing consensus among the next generation of voters that governments must do more to mitigate environmental disaster, and an impatience with political parties that refuse to recognize the urgency of the situation.

Climate change, said an editorial in France’s Liberation newspaper, “has become the principal criteria of judging political action in the European Union.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/05/28/climate-change-threatens-wests-far-right/

Climate science violates the basic precepts of science

by Sanjeev Sabhlok,  May 9, 2019 in TheTimesofIndia


There are two key pillars of science. First, it doesn’t matter how many “scientists” believe something. All of them could be proven wrong by a single new scientific theory or experiment. Science is always tentatively proven, and it is incumbent on everyone who calls himself a scientist to ask questions even about things that are “settled”. The great physicist Richard Feynman rightly said, “Science is the belief in the ignorance of experts”. Scientists must continually question everything and everybody.

Second, science must necessarily make accurate predictions. The global positioning system (GPS) in our mobile phones works only because Einstein’s theories of relativity are accurate to the last possible decimal. Science must not just predict the future: it must predict backwards. Our scientific understanding of cosmic microwave background radiation allows us to literally see the universe as it existed a few thousand years after the Big Bang.

With climate change, things are dramatically unclear and unsettled. Even converting the basic logic of the greenhouse effect into actual estimates for planet Earth is not settled. The IPCC’s Third Assessment Report notes that "If the amount of carbon dioxide were doubled instantaneously … the temperature of the surface-troposphere system would have to increase by 1.2 degrees, in the absence of other changes”. However, some scientists calculate that its impact would be much lower.

Sylvie Brunel : un livre qui ne nous gâche pas la vie…

by Prof. A. Préat, 24 mai 2019 in ScienceClimatEnergie


Nous sommes manifestement dans une période médiatico-politique rarement rencontrée dans notre histoire, excepté peut-être aux passages des millénaires et des siècles où les peurs tous azimuts ont engendré chaque fois des comportements irrationnels. Pourtant aujourd’hui nous sommes de plain pied dans un siècle, il n’y a aucune date revêtant une signification particulière et il est presque question de la fin du monde tous les jours puisque le slogan à la mode est ‘la fin du mois ou la fin du monde’. Slogan répété à l’envi par tant de jeunes, de ‘défavorisés’, de retraités et repris en cœur dans les médias et aussi par des scientifiques.

Alors tout ceci est-il fondé ? Faut-il avoir sans cesse peur, peur principalement alimentée par la peur climatique, mais pas uniquement…

Scientists discover China has been secretly emitting banned ozone-depleting gas

by Jacob Dubé, May 23, 2019 in National Post


Scientists found that between 40 and 60 per cent of the total global CFC-11 emissions originated from eastern China

A chemical banned around the globe for the last 30 years has made an unfortunate resurgence. And all signs, in a new study, point to China as the culprit.

In the 1980s, countries came together to sign The Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, a landmark treaty designed to halt and reduce the production of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC), chemicals used in fridges and foams that had the side effect of tearing through the Earth’s ozone layer.

 
In this graphic, monitoring stations in Japan and Korea designed to track unwanted emissions in the atmosphere attempt to pinpoint the origin of an increase in CFC-11 emissions. Tracking the gas’ presence and weather conditions, scientists concluded it originated from eastern mainland China. A new study published May 22, 2019, found that 40 to 60 per cent of global CFC-11 emissions originated from the region. UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL

NOAA predicts near-normal 2019 Atlantic hurricane season

by Anthony Watts, May 23, 2019 in WUWT


El Nino and warmer-than-average Atlantic help shape this season’s intensity

From NOAA press release:

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is predicting that a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year. This outlook forecasts a 40% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season and a 30% chance of a below-normal season. The hurricane season officially extends from June 1 to November 30.

For 2019, NOAA predicts a likely range of 9 to 15 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 4 to 8 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 2 to 4 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence. An average hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which 6 become hurricanes, including 3 major hurricanes.

Ship spies largest underwater eruption ever

by Roland Pease, May 21, 2019 in Science


Last week, Marc Chaussidon, director of the Institute of Geophysics in Paris (IPGP), looked at seafloor maps from a recently concluded mission and saw a new mountain. Rising from the Indian Ocean floor between Africa and Madagascar was a giant edifice 800 meters high and 5 kilometers across. In previous maps, there had been nothing. “This thing was built from zero in 6 months!” Chaussidon says.

His team, along with scientists from the French national research agency CNRS and other institutes, had witnessed the birth of a mysterious submarine volcano, the largest such underwater event ever witnessed. “We have never seen anything like this,” says IPGP’s Nathalie Feuillet, leader of an expedition to the site by the research vessel Marion Dufresne, which released its initial results last week.

The quarter-million people living on the French island of Mayotte in the Comoros archipelago knew for months that something was happening. From the middle of last year they felt small earthquakes almost daily, says Laure Fallou, a sociologist with the European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre in Bruyères-le-Châtel, France. People “needed information,” she says. “They were getting very stressed, and were losing sleep.”

Refuting the Smear Machine – Part 1

by Donna Laframboise, Lay 22, 2019 in BigPictureNews


When a journalist thinks for herself about climate change, insults and fabrications follow.

Two days ago I reported that a Washington, DC organization called the Government Accountability Project is smearing me on its website. I explained that PR firms target non-conformist climate reporting in an attempt to police what journalists say.

This story begins with a September 2013 opinion piece written by me and published in the Wall Street Journal. It concerned the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and was headlined:

Warming Up for Another Climate-Change Report
Every six years, a U.N. panel issues its findings, and the media hail them as definitive. Skepticism may be in order.

Within hours, a Rockefeller Foundation funded entity called Climate Nexus released an error-riddled 600-word rebuttal that now resides on the Government Accountability Project’s official-looking website. An organization with ‘accountability’ in its name is smearing me by reprinting material whose actual author remains in the shadows, anonymous to this day.

Line by line, over the course of two blog posts, I will now respond to this collection of factual errors and lazy insults. Let us begin with the first sentence:

Interview with Samuele Furfari: European elections

by European Scientist, May 21, 2009


In the context of the European elections, European Scientist is bringing you an series of views from experts from different countries on various topics around science and science policy in Europe, to provide an overview and analysis, which will be useful for the next commission.

 

ES: What is your assessment of energy policy in Europe? What have the major achievements of the outgoing commission been?

The greatest success of the outgoing commission is to have developed a policy to support gas interconnections by financing projects of common interest. The aim is that every single methane molecule that enters the territory of the Union can circulate to any other location. This will help to diversify gas supply sources, particularly from the south of the Union (thanks to more gas arriving as LNG and via the Southern Corridor).

 

ES: There is a wide disparity in energy policy between different countries (e.g. France and Germany). Do you think it is necessary to harmonise policy or on the contrary is it preferable to maintain diversity?

‘Gimme Gimme Shock Treatment’

by Joe Bastardi, May 17, 2019 inThePatriotPost


Apparently, the new strategy to fight climate change is shock therapy. It’s like today’s environmental crusaders are channeling the Ramones song “Gimme Gimme Shock Treatment.” Here are some illustrations.

Shock treatment is for extreme measures. But take, for example, this Dr. Willie Soon plot of solar irradiance (a measure of solar energy) vs. water vapor:

Water vapor is the number-one greenhouse gas. So it’s no secret what temperatures do when water vapor increases.