Archives par mot-clé : Temperature

Are Claimed Global Record-Temperatures Valid?

by Clyde Spencer, April 12, 2017

In summary, there are numerous data handling practices, which climatologists generally ignore, that seriously compromise the veracity of the claims of record average-temperatures, and are reflective of poor science. The statistical significance of temperature differences with 3 or even 2 significant figures to the right of the decimal point is highly questionable. One is not justified in using the approach of calculating the Standard Error of the Mean to improve precision, by removing random errors, because there is no fixed, single value that random errors cluster about. The global average is a hypothetical construct that doesn’t exist in Nature. Instead, temperatures are changing, creating variable, systematic-like errors. Real scientists are concerned about the magnitude and origin of the inevitable errors in their measurements.

Also : Perspective Needed; Time to Identify Variations in Natural Climate Data that Exceed the Claimed Human CO2 Warming Effect

Paris climate promises will reduce temperatures by just 0.05°C in 2100 (Press release)

by Bjorn Lomborg, April 2017

The climate impact of all Paris INDC promises is minuscule: if we measure the impact of every nation fulfilling every promise by 2030, the total temperature reduction will be 0.048°C (0.086°F) by 2100.

Even if we assume that these promises would be extended for another 70 years, there is still little impact: if every nation fulfills every promise by 2030, and continues to fulfill these promises faithfully until the end of the century, and there is no ‘CO₂ leakage’ to non-committed nations, the entirety of the Paris promises will reduce temperature rises by just 0.17°C (0.306°F) by 2100.

New Paper: Northern Hemisphere Temperatures Rose 4–5°C Within ‘A Few Decades’ 14,700 Years Ago

By Kenneth Richard , April 2017

According to a new paper, the Bølling Warming event 14,700 years ago raised the surface temperature for the entire Northern Hemisphere by 4 to 5°C within a few decades.  This is a hemispheric warming rate of approximately 2.0°C per decade, which is 40 times faster than the 0.05 °C per decade global warming rate since 1850 (and 1998).

On the Existence of a ‘Tropical Hot Spot’

by Dr JP Wallace III et al., August 2016

.pdf (69p.)

These analysis results would appear to leave very, very little doubt but that EPA’s claim of a Tropical Hot Spot (THS), caused by rising atmospheric CO2 levels, simply does not exist in the real world. Also critically important, even on an all-other-things- equal basis, this analysis failed to find that the steadily rising Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations have had a statistically significant impact on any of the 13 critically important temperature time series analyzed.

Modern ‘Warmth’ A Brief Excursion From 8,000-Year (Continuing) Cooling Trend

by Kenneth Richard, March 20, 2017

According to an estimate of global sea surface temperature (SST) changes during the last 2,000 years (“Robust global ocean cooling trend for the pre-industrial Common Era“), the addition of the last 2 centuries (1800 to 2000 C.E.) of relatively modest SST warming only changes the overall per-millennium global cooling trend (~0.4°C) by one tenth of one degree.  In other words, using a long-term perspective, the Holocene cooling trend has continued largely uninterrupted during the last two centuries.

Ice age thermostat prevented extreme climate cooling

Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, March 14, 2017
from E. D. Galbraith, S. EgglestonA lower limit to atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the past 800,000 yearsNature Geoscience, 2017

During the ice ages, an unidentified regulatory mechanism prevented atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations from falling below a level that could have led to runaway cooling, reports a team of researchers. The study suggests the mechanism may have involved the biosphere, as plants and plankton struggled to grow under very low carbon dioxide levels.

Geologic Evidence of Recurring Climate Cycles and Their Implications for the Cause of Global Climate Changes. The Past is the Key to the Future

Don J. Easterbrook, 2011

Department of Geology, Western Washington University, Bellingham, WA 98225, USA

Temperatures have risen approximately a degree or so per century since the coldest part of the Little Ice Age ~500 years ago, but the rise has not been linear. Global temperatures have warmed and cooled many times in 25-35-year cycles, well before the atmospheric CO2 began to rise significantly.

Two episodes of global warming and two episodes of global cooling occurred during the 20th century (Fig. 1). Overall, temperatures during the century rose about the same as the rate of warming per century since the Little Ice Age 500 years ago.

Atlantique Nord : le risque d’un refroidissement rapide au XXIe siècle revu à la hausse

par D. Swingedouw et al., CNRS, 15 février 2017

Dans le cadre du projet européen EMBRACE, une équipe d’océanographes a réexaminé ces 40 projections climatiques en se focalisant sur un point névralgique au nord-ouest de l’Atlantique Nord : la mer du Labrador. Cette mer est le siège d’un phénomène de convection, qui nourrit à plus grande échelle la circulation océanique de retournement. Ses eaux de surface se refroidissent fortement en hiver, deviennent plus denses que les eaux de profondeur et plongent vers le fond. La chaleur des eaux profondes est transférée vers la surface et empêche la formation de banquise

Eocene global warming events driven by ventilation of oceanic dissolved organic carbon

by Ph.F. Sexton et al., Nature, 2011

‘Hyperthermals’ are intervals of rapid, pronounced global warming known from six episodes within the Palaeocene and Eocene epochs (~65–34million years (Myr) ago)12345678910111213. The most extreme hyperthermal was the ~170 thousand year (kyr) interval2 of 5–7°C global warming3 during the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 56Myr ago). The PETM is widely attributed to massive release of greenhouse gases from buried sedimentary carbon reservoirs1361114151617, and other, comparatively modest, hyperthermals have also been linked to the release of sedimentary carbon36111617

Egalement, une synthèse en français

Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability

John Turner et al., Nature, July 2016

Here we use a stacked temperature record to show an absence of regional warming since the late 1990s. The annual mean temperature has decreased at a statistically significant rate, with the most rapid cooling during the Austral summer. Temperatures have decreased as a consequence of a greater frequency of cold, east-to-southeasterly winds, resulting from more cyclonic conditions in the northern Weddell Sea associated with a strengthening mid-latitude jet.