Archives de catégorie : climate-debate

It appears Solar Cycle 25 has begun – Solar cycle 24 one of the shortest and weakest ever

by A. Watts, April 12, 2018 in WUWT


Evidence of a Cycle 25 sunspot found

In our previous post: Solar activity crashes – the Sun looks like a cueball, 

Our resident solar physicist, Dr. Leif Svalgaard commented and provided a link to something reported by his colleagues, something that likely would not have been possible without the fantastic solar observations of NASA’s Solar Dynamic Observeratory (SDO).

It seems a small sunspot has been observed, that has the opposite polarity of cycle 24 sunspots.

70+ Papers: Holocene Sea Levels 2 Meters Higher – Today’s Sea Level Change Indistinguishable From Noise

by K. Richard, April 12, 2018 in NoTricksZone


More than 70 recent scientific publications show that there is absolutely nothing unusual about the magnitude and rapidity of today’s sea level changes. These academically peer-reviewed papers show that sea levels were on average 2 meters higher earlier in the Holocene than they are today.

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Science Fact: Per NOAA, “Global Warming” Pause For U.S. Now Exceeds 22 Years (Wrong?)

by C3 Headlines, April 2018


The chart above was produced by NOAA at their ‘Climate at a Glance’ web page. In the upper right corner of the chart, NOAA shows its calculated per decade trend of -0.02°F for a period that spans 1996-2018.

After posting this chart and an accompanying article, it just seemed that something was likely wrong with the trend calculation produced by NOAA’s web site.

New study reveals increased snowfall in Antarctica over last two centuries

British Antarctic Survey, April 9, 2018


Presenting this week (Monday 9 April 2018) at the European Geosciences Union (EGU) meeting in Vienna, an international team, led by British Antarctic Survey, describes how analysis of 79 ice cores collected from across Antarctica reveals a 10% increase in over the last 200 years.  This is equivalent to 272 giga tonnes of water – double the volume of the Dead Sea.

Lead author and ice core scientist Dr Liz Thomas from British Antarctic Survey explains: (…)

 

During The 800s-1300s AD, Wine Grapes Were Grown At Latitudes Where Polar Bears Now Roam

by K. Richard, April 2, 2018


Canada’s stable-to-increasing polar bear population extends its range slightly further south of the 55th parallel (York et al., 2016).

According to published geological evidence from the 1950s, remnants of wine grape vineyards have been unearthed in regions as far north as the polar-bear-inhabiting 55th parallel during the Medieval Warm Period (~800s to 1300s AD).

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Which is the Most Accurate Satellite-Derived Temperature Dataset?

by Christy J.R. et al., April  6, 2018, in CO2Science


Monitoring temperature and creating regional and global temperature data sets is a tricky business. There are many factors that can induce spurious trends in the data; and there are multiple protocols to follow to ensure their proper construction. Consequently, many people (including scientists) have found themselves wondering which of all the temperature data sets is the most accurate for use in determining the impact of rising greenhouses gases on atmospheric temperature? Thanks to the recently published work of Christy et al. (2018), we now have a pretty good idea as to the answer.

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Circular reasoning with climate models

by D. Wojick, Ph.D. April 2018 in CFACT, 


Climate models play a central role in the attribution of global warming or climate change to human causes. The standard argument takes the following form: “We can get the model to do X, using human causes, but not without them, so human causes must be the cause of X.” A little digging reveals that this is actually a circular argument, because the models are set up in such a way that human causes are the only way to get change.

The finding is that humans are the cause of global warming and climate change is actually the assumption going in. This is circular reasoning personified, namely conclude what you first assume.

Polar Bear Numbers Are For Kids, Says Specialist Andrew Derocher

by Dr Susan Crockford, April 9, 2018 in ClimateChangeDispatch


Polar bear specialists made global population numbers the focus of the world’s attention when they predicted a dramatic decline and possible extinction of the species.

But now that the numbers have increased slightly rather than declined, the same scientists say global numbers are meaningless: the public should give those figures no credence and anyone who cites global population numbers should be mocked.

Climatic Cycles Globally…Spitzbergen Weather Records Show It Was Just As Warm 70 Years Ago!

by P. Gosselin, April 8, 2018 in NoTricksZone


On Spitzbergen it was as warm 70 years ago as it is today

By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt
(German text translated by P Gosselin)

Newspapers like to write about heat and melt records in the Arctic, which supposedly had never happened before. That really sparks fear among the citizens. However an examination of the facts regularly brings amazing things to light, for example weather records from a German station on Spitzbergen during World War 2 for the period of 1944-1945.

In the journal International Journal of Climatology Rajmund Przybylak and his colleagues evaluated the data. Summary: Back then it was similarly warm as it is today

Gas needed for low-carbon targets says National Grid

by P. Homewood, April 8, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


Bit by bit, some reality appears to be intruding into the make believe world of the Climate Change Act:

No credible scenario’ exists for hitting the UK’s 2050 decarbonisation targets without continued reliance on gas, the National Grid has warned.

In a new report, entitled The Future of Gas: How gas can support a low carbon future’, the grid says that it is not feasible to switch over to electric heating on the scale required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 80 per cent of 1990 levels by the middle of this century.

Top Climate Scientist: CO2 Model Assumptions “Invalid”…”Natural Climatic Variations Dominate”!

by P. Gosselin, April 6, 2018 in NoTricksZone


The addition of an esteemed Norwegian climate scientist to the London-based GWPF will help bring some sobriety back to a science that has all too often been immersed in alarmism.

The London-based Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) recently announced Professor Ole Humlum of Norway was joining its Academic Advisory Council.

This brings another persuasive voice to the influential think tank.

Hot Days Near Tokyo Today Not More Than 70 Years Ago…No Trend Since 1926!

by P. Gosselin, April 7, 2018 in NoTricksZone


If you haven’t already picked up a copy of the The Politically Incorrect Guide to Climate Change, please do get your hands on one.

According to its author Marc Morano, people have been snatching them up and a third printing has started. The book even made the Amazon top 100 best selling books for awhile.

It also ranked first in a number of categories. In his book, NoTricksZone gets mentioned 4 times and even took up one full page at one spot!

So now on to today’s post…

UAH finds a warming error in satellite data, lowers “tropical hotspot” temperature trend, contradicts IPCC models

by Anthony Watts, April 6, 2018 in WUWT


Weather Satellite Wanders Through Time, Space, Causing Stray Warming to Contaminate Data

In the late 1990s, the NOAA-14 weather satellite went wandering through time and space, apparently changing the record of Earth’s climate as it went.

Designed for an orbit synchronized with the sun, NOAA-14’s orbit from pole to pole was supposed to cross the equator at 1:30 p.m. on the sunlit side of the globe and at 1:30 a.m. on the dark side, 14 times each day. One of the instruments it carried was a microwave sounding unit (MSU), which looked down at the world and collected data on temperatures in Earth’s atmosphere and how those temperatures changed through time.

The Pause Has Returned.

by P. Homewood, April 5, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


Hadcrut now have numbers out for February, giving an anomaly of 0.523C, measured against the 1961-90 baseline, slightly down on January’s 0.556C.

This means that the last six months have been below 0.59C.

It is clear that temperatures are settling down at a similar level to the period between 2002 and 2007, following the record El Nino of 2015/16. Bear in mind as well that the degree of accuracy, according to the Hadley Centre, is about +/-0.1C. As such, it cannot be said that there has been any statistically measurable warming since 2001, or indeed previously.

It is possible temperatures may drop further in coming months, with weak La Nina conditions established, although these are predicted to disappear by the summer.

Global Temperature Report: March 2018

by Anthony Watts, April 4, 2018 in WUWT


March temperatures (preliminary)

Global composite temp.: +0.24 C (about 0.43 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for March.

Northern Hemisphere: +0.39 C (about 0.70 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for March.

Southern Hemisphere: +0.10 C (about 0.18 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for March.

Tropics: +0.06 C (about 0.11 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for March.

February temperatures (revised):

Global Composite: +0.20 C above 30-year average

Northern Hemisphere: +0.24 C above 30-year average

Southern Hemisphere: +0.15 C above 30-year average

Tropics: +0.03 C above 30-year average

(All temperature anomalies are based on a 30-year average (1981-2010) for the month reported.)

 

 

 

Antarctic Temperature Data Contradict Global Warming…”Much Warmer” 105 Years Ago!

by P. Gosselin, April 3 , 2018 in NoTricksZone


Despite all the alarmist claims of an Antarctic meltdown, it is well known that the trend for sea ice extent at the South Pole has been one of growing ice rather than shrinking ice over the past 4 decades.

Naturally many factors influence polar sea ice extent, such as weather patterns, winds, ocean currents and sea surface temperature cycles. One factor of course is also surface air temperature, which according to global warming theorists is rising globally (…)

Ocean Temps Falling Feb. 2018

by Ron Clutz, March, 2018 in ScienceMatters


The best context for understanding decadal temperature changes comes from the world’s sea surface temperatures (SST), for several reasons:

  • The ocean covers 71% of the globe and drives average temperatures;
  • SSTs have a constant water content, (unlike air temperatures), so give a better reading of heat content variations;
  • A major El Nino was the dominant climate feature in recent years.

HadSST is generally regarded as the best of the global SST data sets, and so the temperature story here comes from that source, the latest version being HadSST3.  More on what distinguishes HadSST3 from other SST products at the end.

 

 

 

Climate-Related Deaths Down by 98.9%; Last Year All-Time Low

by Bjorn Lomborg, April 2, 2018 in ClimateChangeDispatsch


CCD Editor’s Note: In 1920, CO2 levels were 303 PPM or 0.03%. Last year they were 406 PPM or 0.04%. Despite our global population quadrupling, climate deaths have actually gone down as CO2 levels have gone up. Lomborg explains why with the now-standard, often-by-rote “this does not mean that there is no global warming” caveat.

The Sahara Is Growing (Even Though It’s Wetter & Greener!)

by P. Homewood, April 1, 2018 in NotaLotofPeopleKnowThat


The green shoots of recovery are showing up on satellite images of regions including the Sahel, a semi-desert zone bordering the Sahara to the south that stretches some 2,400 miles (3,860 kilometers).

Images taken between 1982 and 2002 revealed extensive regreening throughout the Sahel, according to a new study in the journal Biogeosciences.

The study suggests huge increases in vegetation in areas including central Chad and western Sudan.

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #310

by Anthony Watts, April 1, 2018 in WUWT


Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project

THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President

California Litigation, Monckton: Last week’s TWTW discussed on the public nuisance lawsuits by San Francisco and Oakland against oil companies claiming carbon dioxide (CO2)-caused global warming / climate change will cause harm in the future. It focused on the filing amicus curiae (friend of the court) brief by three distinguished Professors of Physics – William Happer, Steven Koonin and Richard Lindzen (Three Profs). The brief accepted the data and evidence used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and the Climate Science Special Report (CSSR) by the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). However, the Three Profs demonstrate the conclusions in the reports are not established, and, at best, premature. They assert:

“Our overview of climate science is framed through four statements

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Uh oh– analysis of GHCN climate stations shows there is no statistically significant warming – or cooling

by Mark Fife, April1, 2018 in WUWT


This is my eighth post in this series where I am examining long term temperature records for the period 1900 to 2011 contained in the Global Historical Climatology Network daily temperature records. I would encourage anyone to start at the first post and go forward. However, this post will serve as a standalone document. In this post I have taken my experience in exploring the history of Australia and applied it forward to cover North America and Europe.

The way to view this study is literally a statistic-based survey of the data. Meaning I have created a statistic to quantify, rank, and categorize the data. My statistic is very straight forward; it is simply the net change in temperature between the first and last 10 years of 1900 through 2011 for each station.