EIA data shows wind & solar met 3% of U.S. energy after $50 billion in subsidizes

by Larry Hamlin, June 6, 2019 in WUWT


The EIA AEO 2019 report shows that in year 2018 wind and solar energy resources provide about 3% of U.S. total energy consumption while fossil fuel energy resources provide about 81% of total energy use.

The dominate use of fossil fuels in meeting U.S. energy needs remains little changed from a decade ago before use of renewable energy resources became mandated and supported by lucrative government subsidizes.

Using additional EIA data the total wind and solar provided energy going back to year 2000 is available which allows an assessment of the Production Tax Credit (PTC) payments to be made.

‘Skeptical Environmentalist’ Bjorn Lomborg sets fire to the scourge of ‘unbridled climate alarmism’

by Charles the moderator , June 7, 2019 in WUWT


Fear’s a great motivator, right? So what better way to motivate people to care about climate change than to scare the crap out of them? Even if you have to leave out some details to do it?

New York Magazine climate columnist David Wallace-Wells seems to be a student at the School of We’re Hurtling Toward Global Environmental Catastrophe and We’re All Gonna Die. Last night, he shared a short piece by James Dyke, a senior lecturer in global systems at the University of Exeter, explaining some of the horrible things humanity is in for:

Latest Global Temp. Anomaly (May ’19: +0.32°C) A Simple “No Greenhouse Effect” Model of Day/Night Temperatures at Different Latitudes

by Dr. Roy Spencer, June 7, 2019 in WUWT


Abstract: A simple time-dependent model of Earth surface temperatures over the 24 hr day/night cycle at different latitudes is presented. The model reaches energy equilibrium after 1.5 months no matter what temperature it is initialized at. It is shown that even with 1,370 W/m2 of solar flux (reduced by an assumed albedo of 0.3), temperatures at all latitudes remain very cold, even in the afternoon and in the deep tropics. Variation of the model input parameters over reasonable ranges do not change this fact. This demonstrates the importance of the atmospheric “greenhouse” effect, which increases surface temperatures well above what can be achieved with only solar heating and surface infrared loss to outer space.

The challenge of re-using the CO2

by Prof. Samuele Furfari, June 7, 2019 in ScienceClimatEnergie


In its Special Report n° 15 “Global warming of 1.5°C” (SR15) [1], IPCC proposes four scenarios  to limit Earth temperature increase to 1.5°C. In all  scenarios COemissions are kept at virtually zero by 2050. These scenarios are based on the technology called Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) that will remove COto compensate COanthropic emissions.

All pathways that limit global warming to 1.5°C with limited or no overshoot project the use of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) on the order of 100–1000 Gt CO2  over the 21st century. CDR would be used to compensate for residual emissions and, in most cases, achieve net negative emissions to return global warming to 1.5°C following a peak (high confidence). CDR deployment of several hundreds of Gt COis subject to multiple feasibility and sustainability constraints (high confidence). Significant near-term emissions reductions and measures to lower energy and land demand can limit CDR deployment to a few hundred Gt COwithout reliance on bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) (high confidence)” (page 19).

   IPCC defines   Carbon dioxide removal (CDR)” as follows : Anthropogenic activities removing CO2  from the atmosphere and durably storing it in geological, terrestrial, or ocean reservoirs, or in products. It includes existing and potential anthropogenic enhancement of biological or geochemical sinks and direct air capture and storage but excludes natural COuptake not directly caused by human activities” (page 26).

The fourth scenario recognizes the logical and inevitable increase of COemissions if the world  continues its growth to remove poverty and allow Asia and Africa countries to develop. Therefore, this scenario is based on a massive use of the CDR techniques as the report says: “Emissions reductions are mainly achieved through technological means, making strong use of CDR“.

   Indeed, CDR is just rebranding of the CCS concept that is a cul-de-sac technology for a lack of economy, a lack of available adapted geological sinks on the production sites and also a lack of population acceptance.

PATAGONIA ICE SHEETS THICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT

by GWPF, June 05, 2019


After conducting a comprehensive, seven-year survey of Patagonia, glaciologists from the University of California, Irvine and partner institutions in Argentina and Chile have concluded that the ice sheets in this vast region of South America are considerably more massive than expected.

hrough a combination of ground observations and airborne gravity and radar sounding methods, the scientists created the most complete ice density map of the area to date and found that some glaciers are as much as a mile (1,600 meters) thick. Their findings were published today in the American Geophysical Union journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Glacier National Park Quietly Removes Its ‘Gone by 2020’ Signs

by Roger I. Roots, May 30, 2019 in WUWT


Founder, Lysander Spooner University

May 30, 2019. St. Mary, Montana. Officials at Glacier National Park (GNP) have begun quietly removing and altering signs and government literature which told visitors that the Park’s glaciers were all expected to disappear by either 2020 or 2030.
In recent years the National Park Service prominently featured brochures, signs and films which boldly proclaimed that all glaciers at GNP were melting away rapidly. But now officials at GNP seem to be scrambling to hide or replace their previous hysterical claims while avoiding any notice to the public that the claims were inaccurate. Teams from Lysander Spooner University visiting the Park each September have noted that GNP’s most famous glaciers such as the Grinnell Glacier and the Jackson Glacier appear to have been growing—not shrinking—since about 2010. (The Jackson Glacier—easily seen from the Going-To-The-Sun Highway—may have grown as much as 25% or more over the past decade.)

Montana Glacier National Park Mountains Cracker Lake

The Holocene Sea Level Highstand

by David Middleton, June 6 , 2019 in WUWT


What is a highstand?

A highstand is one phase of the sea level cycle (AAPG Wiki)

  • Rising
  • Highstand
  • Falling
  • Lowstand

The highstand is the maximum sea level achieved during the cycle.

The Holocene Epoch

The Holocene Epoch was recently formally subdivided into three stages:

  1. Greenlandian Stage = Lower or Early-Holocene. 11.70 ka to 8.33 ka
  2. Northgrippian Stage = Middle or Mid-Holocene. 8.33 ka to 4.25 ka
  3. Meghalayan Stage = Upper or Late-Holocene. 4.25 ka to present

The abbreviation “ka” refers to thousands of years ago. Lower, Middle and Upper are generally used when referring to rock-time units. Early, Mid and Late are generally used when referring to time units (Haile, 1987). Prior to the formal subdivision, Lower/Early, Middle/Mid and Upper/Late were commonly used; however there was no formal nomenclature. The fake word, “Anthropocene” is not used by real geologists.

There is also an informal climatological subdivision of the Holocene:

  • Preboreal 10 ka–9
  • Boreal 9 ka–8 ka
  • Atlantic 8 ka–5 ka
  • Subboreal 5 ka–2.5 ka
  • Subatlantic 2.5 ka–present

Source: Wikipedia

Why would there have been a Mid- to Late-Holocene highstand?

Figure 1. Holocene sea level curves from Moore & Curray, 1974.

Arctic Shipping Climate Change, Commercial Traffic and Port Development

by Taylor & Francis Group, eBook August 20, 2019


This book considers both the present state of Arctic shipping and possible future trends with reference to the various sectors of maritime transportation: cruise tourism, container traffic, and bulk shipping. Ports are analysed as tools that support the strategies of coastal states to foster the development of resource extraction, enhance the attractiveness of Arctic shipping lanes and enable the control of maritime activities through coast guard deployment.

The aim of this book is to draw a picture of the trends of Arctic shipping. How is traffic evolving in Canada’s Arctic, or along the Northern Sea Route? Are there significant differences between bulk and container shipping segments when considering the Arctic market? How are the ports and the hinterland developing and what are the strategies behind those? How is the legal framework shaping the evolution of maritime transportation? The contributors to this book consider all of these questions, and more, as they map out the prospects for Arctic shipping and analyse in detail the development of Arctic shipping as a result of multi-variable interactions.

This book will be key reading for industry professionals and post-graduate students alike.

..

How deep-ocean vents fuel massive phytoplankton blooms

by Stanford’s School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences, June 5, 2019 in WUWT


More “settled science” of the carbon cycle~ctm

Stanford study shows how hydrothermal vents fuel massive phytoplankton blooms — and possible hotspots for carbon storage

Researchers at Stanford University say they have found an aquatic highway that lets nutrients from Earth’s belly sweep up to surface waters off the coast of Antarctica and stimulate explosive growth of microscopic ocean algae.

Their study, published June 5 in the journal Nature Communications, suggests that hydrothermal vents – openings in the seafloor that gush scorching hot streams of mineral-rich fluid – may affect life near the ocean’s surface and the global carbon cycle more than previously thought.

Mathieu Ardyna, a postdoctoral scholar and the study’s lead author, said the research provides the first observed evidence of iron from the Southern Ocean’s depths turning normally anemic surface waters into hotspots for phytoplankton – the tiny algae that sustain the marine food web, pull heat-trapping carbon dioxide out of the air and produce a huge amount of the oxygen we breathe. “Our study shows that iron from hydrothermal vents can well up, travel across hundreds of miles of open ocean and allow phytoplankton to thrive in some very unexpected places,” he said.

Kevin Arrigo, a professor of Earth system science and senior author of the paper, called the findings “important because they show how intimately linked the deep ocean and surface ocean can be.”

2019 Atlantic hurricane forecast

by J. Curry and J. Johnstone, June4, 2019 in ClimateEtc.


CFAN predicts an active North Atlantic hurricane season season.

The Atlantic hurricane has begun.  We are off to an early start with one wimpy subtropical storm that lasted less than a day, and a small system that is trying to spin up in the Bay of Campeche.

Other forecast providers have begun issuing forecasts:

  • NOAA predicts a near normal season with 4-8 hurricanes.
  • Tropical Storm Risk predicts slightly below normal activity, with 6 hurricanes and ACE of 88.
  • Colorado State University predicts near normal season:  6 hurricanes and ACE of 100

Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) is going bold, see below. [link] to forecast report.

CFAN’s seasonal forecast

Table 1. Current (May) 2019 hurricane forecasts of North Atlantic ACE, North Atlantic total hurricanes, U.S. landfalling hurricanes. 

….

The epic search for oldest ice in Antarctica is starting

by Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia, June 5, 2019 in WUWT


Click here for project video.

On 1st June 2019 the European Beyond EPICA Oldest Ice Core project started with the aim of drilling for and recovering ice from up to 1.5 Million years ago in Antarctica. The previous EPICA project recovered ice from 800,000 years ago. The new project aims to go beyond that. The new core will give us information on the greenhouse gases present during the Middle Pleistocene Transition (MPT), which occurred between 900,000 and 1.2 Million years ago. During this period the climatic periodicity transitioned from 41,000 to 100,000 years between ice ages. Why this change happened is the mystery scientists want to resolve.

To do this, experts from 10 European Countries and 16 different Research Institutions have joined forces under the guidance of Carlo Barbante and his management team at the CNR and Ca’ Foscari University of Venice in Italy, funded by the European Horizon 2020-research programme.

For further information visit https://www.beyondepica.eu/

PÉTROLE BRENT : POURQUOI LES PRIX DU PÉTROLE RECHUTENT À LEUR PLUS BAS NIVEAU DEPUIS JANVIER

by BFM bourse, 3 juin 2019


Les cours du baril d’or noir ont enregistré, en mai, leur première baisse mensuelle de l’année 2019, avec un repli de 11,4% pour le baril de Brent européen et de 15,8% pour son homologue américain, le “light sweet crude” texan ou “WTI“. Ce recul s’est accentué depuis mercredi dernier, porté par la frénésie taxatoire de Donald Trump à l’encontre de la Chine et désormais également du Mexique, qui fait peser des craintes sur la demande mondiale et détourne les investisseurs des valeurs dépendantes de cette croissance mondiale, dont l’or noir fait partie.

Des coraux qui s’adaptent aux températures plus élevées

by Paul Berth, 31 mai 2019 in ScienceClimatEnergie


Selon certaines prédictions, basées sur des modèles informatiques, de nombreux récifs coralliens auront disparu des océans tropicaux au cours des 80 prochaines années[1]. La cause est bien évidemment le réchauffement climatique pouvant provoquer un blanchiment des coraux. Par exemple, en 2014–2017, a eu lieu un évènement global de blanchiment, le 3e au cours des 20 dernières années, et de nombreux coraux furent affectés sur des milliers de kilomètres carrés[2],[3]. Les médias, avides de catastrophisme, en ont beaucoup parlé avec des titres une fois de plus très alarmistes (exemple ici).

Cependant, les choses ne sont pas si simples. Des données satellitaires et des études de terrain ont montré que tous les récifs coralliens ne se comportent pas de la même manière: de nombreux récifs n’ont pas blanchi pendant le dernier épisode El Niño, une très grande partie des coraux a résisté au stress thermique, et de fortes variations locales et régionales ont été observées dans le blanchiment[4]. La relation entre température élevée de l’eau de mer et blanchiment des coraux n’est donc pas évidente. Afin d’éclaircir la situation une équipe américaine a récemment publié une analyse globale des évènements de stress thermique en considérant 3351 sites différents dans 81 pays (Sully et al. 2019, dans Nature Communications[5]). Cette analyse globale est unique et démontre que les coraux sont en train de s’adapter par sélection naturelle et sont désormais un peu plus résistants au blanchiment. Nous avons ici une belle démonstration du fait que les modèles informatiques sont parfois bien loin de la réalité de terrain et qu’il ne faut pas tirer de  conclusions toujours hâtives!

The major emitters that are meeting their Paris Agreement pledges

by Axios, June 1, 2019


Of top 10 global carbon emitters, not a single one is hitting its climate goals as outlined under the Paris Agreement, per data from the Climate Action Tracker.

Why it matters: Even if every country that’s adopted the Paris Agreement were to meet their pledges, it would not avert the worst effects of climate change.

Driving the news: June 1 marks the 2-year anniversary of President Trump’s announcement that the U.S. would withdraw from the deal. Per the Climate Action Tracker, the U.S., the second-largest world emitter of greenhouse gasses (but top historical emitter), falls under “critically insufficient,” the worst category, in meeting its Paris pledge.

The backdrop: The Paris Agreement’s main goal is to keep global temperature rise this century to “well below 2ºC,” above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5ºC.

  • Each country determined what it would be willing to do under the agreement. Such commitments are known as intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs).
  • After ratifying the agreement, the INDC would become the country’s first nationally determined contribution.

So far, 185 countries have ratified or adopted the Paris Agreement. All of the NDCs are available here.

New Proxy Data Show Northern Europe Weather Variability In Sync With Natural Factors: Solar Activity, Oceanic Cycles

by J. Goslin in P. Gosselin, June 1, 2019 in NoTricksZone


Another new paper, which of course will be ignored by the government-funded IPCC because it contradicts claims CO2 drives climate, shows that natural factors dominated the earth’s climate variability.

A team of scientists led by Jerome Goslin have published a paper titled Decadal variability of north-eastern Atlantic storminess at the mid-Holocene: New inferences from a record of wind-blown sand, western Denmark in the journal Global and Planetary Change, suggesting climate variability is driven naturally.

Image: NASA, public domain

Climate change driven by solar and oceanic cycles

Not surprisingly, as evidenced by hundreds of other publications (which are entirely ignored by the IPCC), climate variability is indeed tied to solar activity and “internal atmospheric and oceanic modes”.

Germany’s Zugspitze Sees Snow Depth Spiral Upward To Highest Level in 38 Years – In Late Spring!

by P. Gosselin, June 2, 2019 in NoTricksZone


May normally is a month that sees rapid snow melt in Alps. But this year May was an unusually cold month across Central Europe and parts of the Alps saw heavy snow accumulation.

A week ago, on May 25, BR public broadcasting reported here how May snow levels at Germany’s tallest peak, Zugspitze, reached a 20-year high at just over 6 meters of depth. The article wrote that experts thought the depth would not rise further.

But that turned out to be wrong.

Highest level since February, 1981

Four days later, on May 29, another 35 cm were added and pushed the depth to 6.40 meters, according to wetteronline.ch here. the website wrote: “Zugspitze: Never so much snow since 1981.” The website added that the snow depth there was “higher than it has been since February 1981.”

What follows is a webcam image of the Zugspitze peak from May 29th:

 

10 Of 10 Coastal Antarctic Stations Show Zero Warming Over Past Decades. Failed Scientists Need To Resign

by Kirye in P. Gosselin, May 31, 2019 in NoTricksZone


Over the past few years, climate alarmists have increasingly been resorting to weather-ambulance chasing, which has necessitated the trotting of the globe in the search of weather anomalies to behold as proof of man-made climate change.

But one place they have been avoiding like the plague is Antarctica as a number of studies have been showing the opposite of what what predicted earlier has been happening down at the South Pole, except for volcanic activity beneath parts of the Antarctic ice shelf.

Analysis of Antarctic stations show cooling

In hot pursuit of dinosaurs: Tracking extinct species on ancient Earth via biogeograph

by Charles the moderator, May 31, 2019 in WUWT


University of Tokyo

One researcher at the University of Tokyo is in hot pursuit of dinosaurs, tracking extinct species around ancient Earth. Identifying the movements of extinct species from millions of years ago can provide insights into ancient migration routes, interaction between species, and the movement of continents.

“If we find fossils on different continents from closely related species, then we can guess that at some point there must have been a connection between those continents,” said Tai Kubo, Ph.D., a postdoctoral researcher affiliated with the University Museum at the University of Tokyo.

A map of life – biogeography

Previous studies in biogeography — the geographic distribution of plants and animals — had not considered the evolutionary relationships between ancient species. The new method that Kubo designed, called biogeographical network analysis, converts evolutionary relationships into geographical relationships.

By combining data from fossils and models of the ancient Earth, researchers can map where ancient species may have migrated. This method, called biogeographical network analysis, converts evolutionary relationships between species into geographical relationships. This method was used in research by Tai Kubo, Ph.D., a postdoctoral researcher affiliated with the University Museum at the University of Tokyo. Credit Caitlin Devor, The University of Tokyo, CC-BY Usage Restrictions Image by Caitlin Devor, The University of Tokyo, CC-BY